munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

CMC played over 90% of snaps in 15 games this season, including 8 games where he played 100% of snaps. He played 13% week 17 and was sat after the first drive because the season was over. That game means absolutely nothing in terms of fantasy. Nothing. It is irrelevant. Yet he still had more points than Chubb, who played the whole game. You are being so far beyond disingenuous you too are now basically lying trying to make an untrue point look to be  true

 

LOL. Good lord. You did EXACTLY the same thing you accused Fort of doing and called him a liar for doing it, and I'm disingenuous? Congrats on talking out of both sides of your mouth. Chubb barely played in week 17, too, btw. His week 17 game means as little as CMC's last game...which is nothing and irrelevant, in your words. And I'm not concerned about CMC scoring more in 12 fewer snaps. I've already said Chubb isn't in CMC's realm. 

 

So let's do everyone a favor...if you want to continue this discussion, let's take it to PM rather than pollute the thread with our argument. If you don't want to, that's fine. I'll let you have the last word and move on. I've made my point. 

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42 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Why argue Chubb vs cmc? That's a losing battle 

 

It wasn’t a Chubb vs CMC argument. Definitely is a losing battle to debate them one-on-one. Chubb isn’t near CMC’s class. 

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Hes probably going to be what I though Jordan Howard was going to be last season. Hex? Probably best to avoid next season.

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19 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Hes probably going to be what I though Jordan Howard was going to be last season. Hex? Probably best to avoid next season.

 

He seems more explosive, to me, than Howard has ever been. I’m not avoiding. 

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Scrimmage yards as a starter

80

75

90

209 

128

72

83

100

115

20

I guess his floor is the 20. He was one of the league leaders in broken tackles with limited work. Ive been high on players just like this before and been disappointed, its fantasy, if it were predictable than no one would play it. Just recognize the upside. I always draft for upside, especially rb cause the league is full on interchangable wr3s that are week to week, and can match a wr2, if theres any difference. The way i see it, is there a back end 2nd rd wr: Keenen, diggs, theilen, ect. that didnt bust every once in a while, if not more than Chubb? 

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5 hours ago, jonnyjhead said:

Scrimmage yards as a starter

80

75

90

209 

128

72

83

100

115

20

I guess his floor is the 20. He was one of the league leaders in broken tackles with limited work. Ive been high on players just like this before and been disappointed, its fantasy, if it were predictable than no one would play it. Just recognize the upside. I always draft for upside, especially rb cause the league is full on interchangable wr3s that are week to week, and can match a wr2, if theres any difference. The way i see it, is there a back end 2nd rd wr: Keenen, diggs, theilen, ect. that didnt bust every once in a while, if not more than Chubb? 

 

The 20 yard output was week 17, and he only played 22 snaps. I’m not putting much stock in that week. 

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56 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

The 20 yard output was week 17, and he only played 22 snaps. I’m not putting much stock in that week. 

My league plays in week 17, so some may put stock, but for a rb2 I don't think its needed. With the injuries and benchings during week 17 I still played Chubb, but also was forced to use the waiver wire and played Godwin, Winston and Evan Engram. If you want Chubb you'll have to select him early. With his schedule he is lucky to have the Steelers and Bengals x2 plus has the cardinals, dolphins, jets, 49ers, Titans, and Hawks. Roughly 10 defenses that have average rush defenses. He also has the broncos where he did have a 100 yds, but with Fangio, the odds are the defense is much improved. Chubb is going to get a 1000yds and 10tds roughly. Does Kitchens use his ability to catch also in the screen game and that is most likely going to happen. I still think Duke will have a decent season, but do the browns play from behind a lot this year and I think they could make the playoffs, so they're going to ride the horse in close games.

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2 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

My league plays in week 17, so some may put stock, but for a rb2 I don't think its needed. With the injuries and benchings during week 17 I still played Chubb, but also was forced to use the waiver wire and played Godwin, Winston and Evan Engram. If you want Chubb you'll have to select him early. With his schedule he is lucky to have the Steelers and Bengals x2 plus has the cardinals, dolphins, jets, 49ers, Titans, and Hawks. Roughly 10 defenses that have average rush defenses. He also has the broncos where he did have a 100 yds, but with Fangio, the odds are the defense is much improved. Chubb is going to get a 1000yds and 10tds roughly. Does Kitchens use his ability to catch also in the screen game and that is most likely going to happen. I still think Duke will have a decent season, but do the browns play from behind a lot this year and I think they could make the playoffs, so they're going to ride the horse in close games.

 

Yeah, definitely matters if your league uses week 17. 

 

It's hard to say whether a schedule will be friendly for a RB at this point, but I do believe that Kitchens is going to use Chubb quite a bit. And I also believe a productive Mayfield is going to help open more lanes for Chubb in the running game. I'm actually a little more hopeful about Chubb's rushing production in 2019...I'm thinking at least 1200 yards and 12 TDs. But like you (and probably almost all of us), I wonder about his usage in the passing game. I don't believe he'll be a 70-catch RB anytime soon, but if he can be a 50-catch guy, he's going to have a lot of value in fantasy. 

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Jordan Howard should never be referenced when talking about Chubb. 

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On 1/23/2019 at 9:45 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

It wasn’t a Chubb vs CMC argument. Definitely is a losing battle to debate them one-on-one. Chubb isn’t near CMC’s class. 

 

Yet, give it a year.

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

 

Yet, give it a year.

 

In terms of fantasy football, I don't think Chubb will ever be in CMC's class...at least not in 1/2 PPR and PPR. 

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58 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

In terms of fantasy football, I don't think Chubb will ever be in CMC's class...at least not in 1/2 PPR and PPR. 

 

We’ll see.

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

 

We’ll see.

 

I really hope you're right. LOL. As his owner in a keeper league, I REALLY hope your right. :D 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

"In terms of fantasy football, I don't think Chubb will ever be in CMC's class...at least not in 1/2 PPR and PPR." 

 

I looked around some & found that in 2017 Carolina had the most yards before contact (YBC). They led the league in that category thru at least the first 3 weeks of this past season. I found elsewhere that by year's end, Phillip Lindsey led the league in YBC ('18). On avg, the Denver OL got this guy over 3yds before being touched. Yet, Lindsey was subjected to a loaded front less than 15% of the time. Whereas his teammate Royce Freeman, saw a lot of 8+-man fronts. 

 

McCaffrey I assume had a high YBC figure, which is a good thing. Running behind a good run-blocking OL always is.  However, if his YBC was comparatively a high figure it then seems a bit concerning that the yards he created on his own had him ranked 26th. I'm thinking that has to be a reflection of volume because the yards he created per carry was a pedestrian 53rd, league-wide! This while subject to a stacked box less than 20% of the time. You wonder, if his favorable situation becomes less so, if contact is no longer smaller defenders & on his terms, will that factor negatively? His father was a WR in this league & there's a lot of rec'r in him. Not a low-center guy, cut a bit high & leaner than other high volume ball carriers. There's a lot to like about McCaffrey, his versatility, elite! But with the investment now high, I'd feel better if they added. 

 

Conversely, Chubb was subject to a stacked box far more frequently than most RBs. The volume of yardage he created on his own ranked 9th, even though he didn't assume the workload until around mid-season. The yards he created per carry ranked 8th! I've forgotten the source but he was ranked #1 as the most elusive ball-carrier, which takes into account, forced missed tackles. I think there's a buzz around this team & if what they do in the offseason makes a lot of sense, watch out for this guy! 

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4 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I really hope you're right. LOL. As his owner in a keeper league, I REALLY hope your right. :D 

 

Maybe he surpasses CMC, maybe he doesn’t, but he’s gonna be a RB1 stud regardless.

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i love cleveland in 2019. they have great young talent on offense and defense. and if they continue to build both sides of the lines they will be a playoff team in 19. using chubb as a work horse will help mayfield big time., duke will be a factor in the passing game. njoku and duke on the field at the same time as chubb could be huge? that maybe the best way to get chubb more involved in the passing game? duke and njoku could open up the middle taking coverage off chubb out of the backfield? landry and callaway could be a decent wr combo as well. i love this team in 2019.

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On 1/23/2019 at 8:01 PM, bhawks489 said:

Why argue Chubb vs cmc? That's a losing battle 

 

On 1/23/2019 at 8:45 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

It wasn’t a Chubb vs CMC argument. Definitely is a losing battle to debate them one-on-one. Chubb isn’t near CMC’s class. 

 

The problem with fantasy football related debates is that they are in general heavily weighted by a "what have you done for me lately" mentality and only look at stats from the previous year(s) as a predictor for future production. People often forget that rookies take time to fully assimilate to the NFL thus rookie production isn't always a good predictor for future production.

 

In terms of 2019 preseason fantasy ranks, of course McCaffrey will be ranked ahead of Chubb, that goes without saying. However, Chubb is a better overall athlete than McCaffrey and had more success as a rookie. So if Chubb takes a similar step forward as McCaffrey did after his rookie season the sky is the limit for Chubb. Similar to the Panthers with McCaffrey, the Browns coaching staff seems willing and wanting to ride Chubb (giggity).

 

People seem to keep forgetting that Chubb is the guy who when at Georgia made everyone forget about Gurley and if not for a freak injury may have become the best RB in Georgia history.

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18 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

I looked around some & found that in 2017 Carolina had the most yards before contact (YBC). They led the league in that category thru at least the first 3 weeks of this past season. I found elsewhere that by year's end, Phillip Lindsey led the league in YBC ('18). On avg, the Denver OL got this guy over 3yds before being touched. Yet, Lindsey was subjected to a loaded front less than 15% of the time. Whereas his teammate Royce Freeman, saw a lot of 8+-man fronts. 

 

McCaffrey I assume had a high YBC figure, which is a good thing. Running behind a good run-blocking OL always is.  However, if his YBC was comparatively a high figure it then seems a bit concerning that the yards he created on his own had him ranked 26th. I'm thinking that has to be a reflection of volume because the yards he created per carry was a pedestrian 53rd, league-wide! This while subject to a stacked box less than 20% of the time. You wonder, if his favorable situation becomes less so, if contact is no longer smaller defenders & on his terms, will that factor negatively? His father was a WR in this league & there's a lot of rec'r in him. Not a low-center guy, cut a bit high & leaner than other high volume ball carriers. There's a lot to like about McCaffrey, his versatility, elite! But with the investment now high, I'd feel better if they added. 

 

Conversely, Chubb was subject to a stacked box far more frequently than most RBs. The volume of yardage he created on his own ranked 9th, even though he didn't assume the workload until around mid-season. The yards he created per carry ranked 8th! I've forgotten the source but he was ranked #1 as the most elusive ball-carrier, which takes into account, forced missed tackles. I think there's a buzz around this team & if what they do in the offseason makes a lot of sense, watch out for this guy! 

 

That's the type of content I'm here for!

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4 hours ago, munde53 said:

 

 

The problem with fantasy football related debates is that they are in general heavily weighted by a "what have you done for me lately" mentality and only look at stats from the previous year(s) as a predictor for future production. People often forget that rookies take time to fully assimilate to the NFL thus rookie production isn't always a good predictor for future production.

 

In terms of 2019 preseason fantasy ranks, of course McCaffrey will be ranked ahead of Chubb, that goes without saying. However, Chubb is a better overall athlete than McCaffrey and had more success as a rookie. So if Chubb takes a similar step forward as McCaffrey did after his rookie season the sky is the limit for Chubb. Similar to the Panthers with McCaffrey, the Browns coaching staff seems willing and wanting to ride Chubb (giggity).

 

People seem to keep forgetting that Chubb is the guy who when at Georgia made everyone forget about Gurley and if not for a freak injury may have become the best RB in Georgia history.

 

I think chubb is a value pick with upside; it's the Duke hanging around issue which affects his volume and game script use that concerns me.

We dont know what Duke will be in this offense next season under the new coaches

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4 hours ago, munde53 said:

 

 

The problem with fantasy football related debates is that they are in general heavily weighted by a "what have you done for me lately" mentality and only look at stats from the previous year(s) as a predictor for future production. People often forget that rookies take time to fully assimilate to the NFL thus rookie production isn't always a good predictor for future production.

 

In terms of 2019 preseason fantasy ranks, of course McCaffrey will be ranked ahead of Chubb, that goes without saying. However, Chubb is a better overall athlete than McCaffrey and had more success as a rookie. So if Chubb takes a similar step forward as McCaffrey did after his rookie season the sky is the limit for Chubb. Similar to the Panthers with McCaffrey, the Browns coaching staff seems willing and wanting to ride Chubb (giggity).

 

People seem to keep forgetting that Chubb is the guy who when at Georgia made everyone forget about Gurley and if not for a freak injury may have become the best RB in Georgia history.

 

Despite your insinuation, I haven’t forgotten that players grow and progress. Are you assuming that CMC is done growing and progressing? I know guys take time to assimilate. After all, Emmitt Smith’s rookie season didn’t scream “all time NFL rushing leader”. However, I don’t necessarily agree that Chubb is a better athlete, and I don’t agree that he had a better rookie season. Rushing yards? Sure, but CMC had more points in 1/2 PPR and PPR. CMC has become the focal point of the Panther offense and is as close to a lock to catch a minimum of 80 passes as a RB can be. So unless Chubb grows into a receiver who can approach that, he simply will not be in CMC’s class in 1/2 PPR or PPR. It’s the receptions that set them apart. 

 

Now I love Chubb. Probably drafted him higher than just about anyone else last year, and I’m excited to have him on my roster as a keeper for the next few years. But until he shows that he’s going to be heavily involved in the passing game, I simply can’t put him in that top 5 talk, which is squarely where McCaffrey is. And maybe Chubb does that, but he hasn’t, and there are minimal signs that he will. Maybe he grows into that, but we have to go with the evidence that we can actually see with our eyes. 

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16 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Despite your insinuation, I haven’t forgotten that players grow and progress. Are you assuming that CMC is done growing and progressing? I know guys take time to assimilate. After all, Emmitt Smith’s rookie season didn’t scream “all time NFL rushing leader”. However, I don’t necessarily agree that Chubb is a better athlete, and I don’t agree that he had a better rookie season. Rushing yards? Sure, but CMC had more points in 1/2 PPR and PPR. CMC has become the focal point of the Panther offense and is as close to a lock to catch a minimum of 80 passes as a RB can be. So unless Chubb grows into a receiver who can approach that, he simply will not be in CMC’s class in 1/2 PPR or PPR. It’s the receptions that set them apart. 

 

Now I love Chubb. Probably drafted him higher than just about anyone else last year, and I’m excited to have him on my roster as a keeper for the next few years. But until he shows that he’s going to be heavily involved in the passing game, I simply can’t put him in that top 5 talk, which is squarely where McCaffrey is. And maybe Chubb does that, but he hasn’t, and there are minimal signs that he will. Maybe he grows into that, but we have to go with the evidence that we can actually see with our eyes. 

 

 

I'm sure cmc can make  top 5 but I'm  not drafting him as a top 5. I'm fading the Panthers overall with a gimpy Cam+ a HC on the hot seat.

This team imploded losing 7 of 8 end of season, some asst coaches were canned and Rivera put on notice. I'm not spending high draft capital on that type of mix.

I prefer to pick up much cheaper value guys like Mixon, chubb,dalvin,fournette who could have a legit shot at top 5  with slight changes in their situations.

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17 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I think chubb is a value pick with upside; it's the Duke hanging around issue which affects his volume and game script use that concerns me.

We dont know what Duke will be in this offense next season under the new coaches

 

It's the exact same coach so I'm not sure why you think things would change for the worse in terms of Chubb's usage.

 

17 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Despite your insinuation, I haven’t forgotten that players grow and progress. Are you assuming that CMC is done growing and progressing? I know guys take time to assimilate. After all, Emmitt Smith’s rookie season didn’t scream “all time NFL rushing leader”. However, I don’t necessarily agree that Chubb is a better athlete, and I don’t agree that he had a better rookie season. Rushing yards? Sure, but CMC had more points in 1/2 PPR and PPR. CMC has become the focal point of the Panther offense and is as close to a lock to catch a minimum of 80 passes as a RB can be. So unless Chubb grows into a receiver who can approach that, he simply will not be in CMC’s class in 1/2 PPR or PPR. It’s the receptions that set them apart. 

 

Now I love Chubb. Probably drafted him higher than just about anyone else last year, and I’m excited to have him on my roster as a keeper for the next few years. But until he shows that he’s going to be heavily involved in the passing game, I simply can’t put him in that top 5 talk, which is squarely where McCaffrey is. And maybe Chubb does that, but he hasn’t, and there are minimal signs that he will. Maybe he grows into that, but we have to go with the evidence that we can actually see with our eyes. 

 

Take if for what it's worth, but Chubb has a much higher SPARQ score/percentile athlete when compared to McCaffrey (98th percentile for Chubb vs. 30th for McCaffrey). In terms of PFF grades, Chubb had a better rookie season than McCaffrey (87.1 for Chubb vs. 83.6 for McCaffrey) and in fact Chubb led all RBs in 2018 in PFF's grading metrics. McCaffrey's PFF grade from 2018 was 83.0 so at least according to their metrics he performed about the same as a 2nd year pro compared to his rookie year. The difference really came in volume.

 

Every scoring system is different but since you brought up fantasy points, in standard scoring Chubb averaged .82 points per touch as a rookie while McCaffrey averaged .75 as a rookie. In PPR leagues sure McCaffrey will probably be more valuable based on receiving volume but we also haven't seen Chubb's ceiling in the receiving game. On a side note, I don't think a guy who catches 100 balls and rushes 200 times should automatically be 50 points more valuable than a guy who rushes 300 times and catches 50 balls.

 

Chubb dominated the NFL in elusiveness rating and led the league in yards after contact according to PFF. He didn't just lead other rookie RBs, he led the entire NFL. He also ranked #3 in forced miss tackles per touch so it's not as if his large breakaway runs skewed those stats. Chubb's 4.47 yards after contact and .231 missed tackles forced per attempt are both rookie record according to PFF. So yes, in terms of rookie seasons I think Chubb's was better than McCaffrey's. 

 

I also don't buy that unless Chubb starts catching 75+ balls he can't get into the top 5 RB talk. Zeke only caught 32 balls as a rookie and would've been a lock as a top 3 or so pick the following year if not for a looming suspension. He then followed his rookie year up with a 2.6 reception per game average which only comes out to 42  receptions through 16 weeks and yet he was a top 4 draft pick in every league in 2018.

 

If Chubb catches ~50 balls he will be a top 5 fantasy RB in 2019.

Edited by munde53
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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

"I'm sure CMC can make  top 5 but I'm not drafting him as a top 5. I'm fading the Panthers overall with a gimpy Cam+ a HC on the hot seat. This team imploded losing 7 of 8 end of season, some asst. coaches were canned and Rivera put on notice. I'm not spending high draft capital on that type of mix. I prefer to pick up much cheaper value guys like Mixon, Chubb, Dalvin, Fournette who could have a legit shot at top 5 with slight changes in their situations."

 

I agree with a lot of what you have here. I think you've overstated with respect to Cam & Rivera, but even so, it's hard to be confident about them. I like teams that add & often think in terms of revenue, teams that can &/or will spend. Seemingly, most of the smaller market teams will too, but only  if they've already pieced together a solid nucleus. Once the window closes, that's it, they're not going to add players that will help win 9, maybe 10 games, on the way down. Accordingly, Newton had been struggling with his completion rate in a system that's been fading in popularity (Air Coryell). Rather than scrap it & start all over they brought in Norv Turner & to his credit he mixed it up more. The ball came out sooner with more check downs, McCaffrey, the key beneficiary.

 

Despite the wheels falling off, it seems they've all earned another go. The basic concept is power run, force collapse, hit 'em deep. I remember Turner in Washington, a lot of waving the ball around & misdirection in the backfield. McCaffrey is an every-down RB, but given how he's put together, it was questionable whether he could be a 3-down volume 'back. He's the main cog but was he the main focus of most defenses? If he was & they add, he's a guy! But he wasn't & they don't, I don't know.        

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7 hours ago, munde53 said:

 

 

It's the exact same coach so I'm not sure why you think things would change for the worse in terms of Chubb's usage.

 

 

 

No, it's a new new team with it's 3rd head coach in 1yr. 

Kitchens has been a career long asst coach in college and the NFL so the 8 games as interim OC was the 1st time he ever had that role

This is  ktichens 1st job as a HC so we have no history of how he runs a team

Kitchens kept Haleys offense in place when he took over as interim OC,  so do you know if he will continue to do that?

Do you know if he will implement a new offensives scheme that he has been developing for years waiting to get his shot?

Do you know his offensive philosophy?

 

So simply saying he is the exact same coach which  means Chubb won't regress is completely false.  Kitchens was hired to develop the offense around Mayfield not Chubb  and we have no real idea what this offense will look like next season and how it will affect Chubbs production. 

 

 

The only bet i am willing to make for next season is Baker is going to throw A LOT because Baker believes he can make every throw and beat the defense with his arm. 

I think the talent currently favors the rb's Duke+chubb vs the pass catchers who dropped passes like they didnt want the ball. When perriman comes off the street and becomes bakers most effective downfield threat that's a  red flag in my book.  I don't even know how to rank Landry for next year because he looked like a fish out of water all season. Does he become a slot machine again and kills the potential pass volume to the rb's?

I like Chubb as a value upside pick but I am in no way confident in predicting his production until we see what sort of offense they will run in the preseason.

So right now Chubb is a box of chocolates and you don't really know  what u will get. 

Edited by dashoe

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