munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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9 hours ago, munde53 said:

 

 

It's the exact same coach so I'm not sure why you think things would change for the worse in terms of Chubb's usage.

 

 

Take if for what it's worth, but Chubb has a much higher SPARQ score/percentile athlete when compared to McCaffrey (98th percentile for Chubb vs. 30th for McCaffrey). In terms of PFF grades, Chubb had a better rookie season than McCaffrey (87.1 for Chubb vs. 83.6 for McCaffrey) and in fact Chubb led all RBs in 2018 in PFF's grading metrics. McCaffrey's PFF grade from 2018 was 83.0 so at least according to their metrics he performed about the same as a 2nd year pro compared to his rookie year. The difference really came in volume.

 

Every scoring system is different but since you brought up fantasy points, in standard scoring Chubb averaged .82 points per touch as a rookie while McCaffrey averaged .75 as a rookie. In PPR leagues sure McCaffrey will probably be more valuable based on receiving volume but we also haven't seen Chubb's ceiling in the receiving game. On a side note, I don't think a guy who catches 100 balls and rushes 200 times should automatically be 50 points more valuable than a guy who rushes 300 times and catches 50 balls.

 

Chubb dominated the NFL in elusiveness rating and led the league in yards after contact according to PFF. He didn't just lead other rookie RBs, he led the entire NFL. He also ranked #3 in forced miss tackles per touch so it's not as if his large breakaway runs skewed those stats. Chubb's 4.47 yards after contact and .231 missed tackles forced per attempt are both rookie record according to PFF. So yes, in terms of rookie seasons I think Chubb's was better than McCaffrey's. 

 

I also don't buy that unless Chubb starts catching 75+ balls he can't get into the top 5 RB talk. Zeke only caught 32 balls as a rookie and would've been a lock as a top 3 or so pick the following year if not for a looming suspension. He then followed his rookie year up with a 2.6 reception per game average which only comes out to 42  receptions through 16 weeks and yet he was a top 4 draft pick in every league in 2018.

 

If Chubb catches ~50 balls he will be a top 5 fantasy RB in 2019.

 

To me, SPARQ and PFF grades aren't worth much. I have long hated SPARQ ratings...they are useless. And I can look with my eyes and see that CMC is a phenomenal athlete. So telling me what their scores and ratings were doesn't sway me or matter to me. PFF tries to be football versions of sabermetrics, lol. 

 

Anyway, as far as points per touch, that's fine and all, but what were their points per game. Because in the end, their points per touch only matter if my guy (Chubb) is getting equal or more touches per game than CMC. 

 

Good point on Elliott, but I feel pretty certain if Elliott had caught just 35-40 balls this year, we'd be talking about the Big 4 instead of the Big 5. All the current top 5 chatter includes Elliott because of all the passes he caught in 2018...the perception on him is higher right now than it ever has been. The reason he was considered a top pick going into this year was because he was averaging roughly a TD per game. He was a RB that could be counted on to get into the end zone. And I do believe the RB position is deeper now. I haven't done the research, so I could be wrong on that, but it feels deeper than it's been in a while. 

 

Even if he catches 50 balls, Chubb will not break into that top 5 if everyone remains healthy. He might approach it, but he won't be in it. And as dashoe said, we don't really know what to expect from Chubb or Cleveland or Kitchens this year. We can surmise what might be the case, but until Kitchens and Monken get together and agree upon an offensive philosophy, we're all just guessing. 

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I guess this guy can tell the future. Find me one year where the top 5 RB didn't change? But I guess its set in stone according this. The SPARQ score + elusiveness PFF rating + the possibility that the Browns are a top 5 offense (very possible) = ?. I'm not going to pretend I have the answer. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 11:45 AM, jonnyjhead said:

I guess this guy can tell the future. Find me one year where the top 5 RB didn't change? But I guess its set in stone according this. The SPARQ score + elusiveness PFF rating + the possibility that the Browns are a top 5 offense (very possible) = ?. I'm not going to pretend I have the answer. 

i have seen this kind of stat pushing from a lot of posters on this site. if you ever question anyone they will slap you in the face with dozens of "stat lines" proving they are right. well this game is still played game by game. week by week....and yes, because of that, things change from year to year. injuries, coaching changes, and just player's maturity. some mature from young talent to talented veteran....some mature from talented veteran to past their prime player. the fact is; things change, so yes i agree with you sir, 100%....but please for pete's sake dont ever mis-spell anything.

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On 1/29/2019 at 11:45 AM, jonnyjhead said:

I guess this guy can tell the future. Find me one year where the top 5 RB didn't change? But I guess its set in stone according this. The SPARQ score + elusiveness PFF rating + the possibility that the Browns are a top 5 offense (very possible) = ?. I'm not going to pretend I have the answer. 

 

I assume you're talking about me. And no, I can't tell the future...but I can make predictions of what I believe will happen. I mean...this is a fantasy football forum. If we're not making predictions on what we believe will happen in 2019, then why bother even coming here? 

 

I never said the top 5 doesn't change. I didn't say it was set in stone. It's my opinion. The fact is, crap happens...injuries happen...suspensions happen...off-years happen. It's highly possible that the top 5 next year is completely different from the top 5 this year. But, from my perspective right now...I don't see a reason to think the top 5 takes a step back. But again, things happen. 

 

On 1/30/2019 at 7:08 PM, not an nfl scout said:

i have seen this kind of stat pushing from a lot of posters on this site. if you ever question anyone they will slap you in the face with dozens of "stat lines" proving they are right. well this game is still played game by game. week by week....and yes, because of that, things change from year to year. injuries, coaching changes, and just player's maturity. some mature from young talent to talented veteran....some mature from talented veteran to past their prime player. the fact is; things change, so yes i agree with you sir, 100%....but please for pete's sake dont ever mis-spell anything.

 

And you weren't stat pushing to prove you were right, with SPARQ scores and PFF scores and football "sabermetrics"? LOL. Come on now. I questioned you, and you slapped me in the face with all kinds of stats. Did you not? 

 

I was just having a discussion with you. If you got perturbed by it, oh well. We just disagree, and that's okay. And you're right, the game is played game by game, week by week. So who's to say that the stats you mentioned about Chubb remain true in 2019? Maybe he doesn't perform as well. Maybe he performs better. 

 

I'm not a McCaffrey owner...I'm a Chubb owner. So I really, really, really hope you're right. I would love it if he broke into the top 5 next season, so I'm rooting hard for him. 

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16 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

And you weren't stat pushing to prove you were right, with SPARQ scores and PFF scores and football "sabermetrics"? LOL. Come on now. I questioned you, and you slapped me in the face with all kinds of stats. Did you not?

i did not??? i dont even know what a "sparq" score even is, or a pff score, or what the hell a saber meterics are ....seriously i'm not sure what any of that is. thats why i said you guys have all the stats. i wasnt taking a shot at you in particular it just happened that you mentioned the sparq thing and i said thats how some on here compare players. i dont. i still like to feel how they play the game. week to week. game by game. thats why i'm not an nfl scout.

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On 1/30/2019 at 10:18 PM, jonnyjhead said:

Stat pushing? Hard to make a point without supporting evidence. I guess this day in age its all fake news 

for me its what they put in the score log from game to game. i'm just not looking at all the sparq stats and metrics of the game. to much human element left to make metric measurements of everything? ask the saints. thats my supporting evidence. metrics is what i referred to as stat pushing?....no offense

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13 minutes ago, not an nfl scout said:

i did not??? i dont even know what a "sparq" score even is, or a pff score, or what the hell a saber meterics are ....seriously i'm not sure what any of that is. thats why i said you guys have all the stats. i wasnt taking a shot at you in particular it just happened that you mentioned the sparq thing and i said thats how some on here compare players. i dont. i still like to feel how they play the game. week to week. game by game. thats why i'm not an nfl scout.

 

My apologies, sir. I confused you with someone else. Sincerest apologies. 

 

My mention of the SPARQ score was to say that I don’t trust or follow the SPARQ scores. Lol. 

Edited by Flyman75

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30 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

My apologies, sir. I confused you with someone else. Sincerest apologies. 

 

My mention of the SPARQ score was to say that I don’t trust or follow the SPARQ scores. Lol. 

no problem.....i cant trust em either since i dont know what they are.

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According to a notification I just received from SleeperBot, Kareem Hunt just signed with Cleveland. What in the world does this mean for Chubb? I thought I had a potential RB1 in my keeper league (6th rd keeper), but this throws a huge wrench into that plan. 

 

What is Cleveland's plan with these two??

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That is unfortunate. Hunt is still likely to be suspended for part of the season, but he is a very young and talented RB. I'm not sure why Cleveland keeps doing this. They did it with Hyde last season and then drafting Chubb, with Duke already extended.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

That is unfortunate. Hunt is still likely to be suspended for part of the season, but he is a very young and talented RB. I'm not sure why Cleveland keeps doing this. They did it with Hyde last season and then drafting Chubb, with Duke already extended.

 

You don’t go 1-31 by accident

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Just now, petekrum said:

 

You don’t go 1-31 by accident

They didn't go 1-31 last season and looked much better once Hue was fired (the reason they went 1-31). The front office was brand new last season and not part of the 1-31 seasons.

Edited by devaster

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

They didn't go 1-31 last season and looked much better once Hue was fired (the reason they went 1-31). The front office was brand new last season and not part of the 1-31 seasons.

 

Only shows this management may be as stupid as the last

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Just now, petekrum said:

 

Only shows this management may be as stupid as the last

Perhaps. I wasn't thinking about the Dorsey connection. Dorsey did draft Hunt in KC. I expect Hunt to be suspended at least 8 games though.

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

Perhaps. I wasn't thinking about the Dorsey connection. Dorsey did draft Hunt in KC. I expect Hunt to be suspended at least 8 games though.

 

I fully expect them to now draft another QB in the first round.🤪

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You knew someone was going to sign him. They probably got him for peanuts. If he doesn't work out, they cut him. If he does, you're adding a great back at a minimal cost. The PR aspect is the only downside. Which, let's be honest, people will be fake outraged for a month or two but no one is going to stop watching and it won't dent their bottom line.

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Just now, devaster said:

Perhaps. I wasn't thinking about the Dorsey connection. Dorsey did draft Hunt in KC. I expect Hunt to be suspended at least 8 games though.

 

If that's the case, Chubb owners can use him to get a jump on the season in the first eight games, but better have a Plan B in place to make that playoff run. 

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3 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

You knew someone was going to sign him. They probably got him for peanuts. If he doesn't work out, they cut him. If he does, you're adding a great back at a minimal cost. The PR aspect is the only downside. Which, let's be honest, people will be fake outraged for a month or two but no one is going to stop watching and it won't dent their bottom line.

 

Yeah everyone knew someone was going to sign him. I'm just surprised a team with a young, promising RB like Chubb would sign him...even for peanuts. A team like the Bears or Bucs just made more sense, imo. 

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This plan of improvement worked out splendidly for Josh Gordon- I have no doubt the Browns will be able to guide Kareem Hunt through a similar process.

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13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yeah everyone knew someone was going to sign him. I'm just surprised a team with a young, promising RB like Chubb would sign him...even for peanuts. A team like the Bears or Bucs just made more sense, imo. 

 

You also have to factor in the PR Circus that would follow the signing.

That would probably eliminate the Bears or any high profile team.

Hunt being a Ohio native maybe thought joining the Browns would be the easiest path to resurrecting his career.

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4 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

 

You also have to factor in the PR Circus that would follow the signing.

That would probably eliminate the Bears or any high profile team.

Hunt being a Ohio native maybe thought joining the Browns would be the easiest path to resurrecting his career.

I don't think the PR circus would eliminate any team. Maybe the Ravens with their history, but teams are more than willing to give a 2nd chance to a very young and talented player.

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Alright keeper leaguers...what are you doing with Chubb now? I was planning to keep him as a 6th rounder, but now I'm not so sure. Even if Hunt gets a 6-game suspension, Chubb is going to be sketchy to own for the final 10 games with Hunt in the backfield. In fact, I could easily see Hunt just taking over and Chubb being relegated to little more than 5-8 touches a game...especially if the Browns have any plans at all to trade Hunt when he becomes a RFA in 2020. 

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