munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

39 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Honestly, yes, I do think Hunt would be in a timeshare of some kind with Barkley and/or Zeke. If a team is smart/lucky enough to have two pro bowl caliber RBs they would presumably use both of them. Why wouldn’t they?

 

Because they want to win games? 

Look at Ladanian Tomlinson / Michael Turner.  Turner kinda flopped at the end of his career but when he was on the Chargers, he was excellent and yet was never in a timeshare with Ladanian.  As proof of how good Turner was, he went to the Falcons and immediately ran for 1699 yards and 17 TDs.  Hunt has never done that.  The Chargers did not go into a timeshare because they had possibly the greatest RB ever and they knew their best chance to win games was to play him as much as possible.

We can just agree to disagree here though.  I personally think Saquon and Zeke are so far ahead, talentwise, of Hunt that it would be a Tomlinson / Turner situation if Hunt were on NYG or Dallas.  I do not think Chubb is so far ahead that they wouldn't see the benefit of giving Hunt significant run to keep Chubb fresh.  The dropoff wouldn't be as big.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hunt is more of a threat to Dontrell Hilliard's touches. Not so much to Chubb.  Cleveland is going to run the ball quite a bit. There will be enough to go around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

I buy that Hunt is talented but I'd also like to see it in a different offense vs. KC's.

 

Are people forgetting that Hunt's 1327 rushing yards and 455 receiving yards came with Alex Smith at QB?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Why does a relatively even split make no sense to you? If you think Hunt comps closer to Kamara and Chubb to Ingram, why would Cleveland limit a Kamara-like weapon to merely change of pace duties?

 

Because Chubb >>>> Ingram

And because this is a team that, if successful, won't suddenly limit their #1 to wedge in large touches for another RB. I think Hunt obviously gets some work, but this isn't New Orleans. People are trying to shove a round peg in a square hole here. Plenty of teams have two talented backs. Not many teams have Sean Payton and the Saints offensive personnel/scheme to do what they do.....or everyone would be doing it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Are people forgetting that Hunt's 1327 rushing yards and 455 receiving yards came with Alex Smith at QB?

 

Alex Smith is a solid QB that barely ever goes downfield. He's a boon for receiving RBs. Dump-off city.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why wouldn’t they just use Hunt as much as possible? The chances of Hunt putting Chubb on the bench is pretty slim, unless for some reason Chubb got hurt. 

I doubt Hunt will be in Ohio next year. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

Alex Smith is a solid QB that barely ever goes downfield. He's a boon for receiving RBs. Dump-off city.

 

your memory is incorrect, sir: when alex smith last played with the chiefs (2017, along with hunt), he ended the season with 60 rushing attempts, tied for 7th on the season, ahead of dak Prescott in attempts (and 2 yards behind dak prescott in total yards, #6 in yards for the season).

60 attempts is top 10 for QBs. interestingly, patrick mahomes also had 60 attempts in 2018 (though smith netted more mileage on the ground with his 60 attempts).

baker mayfield ranked 18th last season with 29 attempts, though in 14 games (and alex smith had 41 attempts in ten games last season).

i like baker, but his only shortcoming in redraft leagues is that he just doesn't run... probably save him some hard hits in the long run, though.

 

816547246_medium.gif

40 minutes ago, Bowman said:

Hunt is more of a threat to Dontrell Hilliard's touches. Not so much to Chubb.  Cleveland is going to run the ball quite a bit. There will be enough to go around.

 

while i agree hunt should force hilliard to the bench, if hunt shows solidity (which he should), he can earn time to cut into chubb's touches / carries. if anything, the browns would want to preserve their star RB somewhat (as @Brownsfan74 notes above), as well as showcase hunt to make his trade value higher (should they decide to trade him).

35 minutes ago, oresteszero said:

I doubt Hunt will be in Ohio next year. 

 

also there is at least a chance hunt does something stupid between now and december and he's suspended further... hunt may have a little too much time on his hands the first 9 sundays of this season, prime time for a party or two...

Kareem+Hunt+2018+ESPYS+Arrivals+1nqCdr8r

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

your memory is incorrect, sir: when alex smith last played with the chiefs (2017, along with hunt), he ended the season with 60 rushing attempts, tied for 7th on the season, ahead of dak Prescott in attempts (and 2 yards behind dak prescott in total yards, #6 in yards for the season).

 

60 attempts is top 10 for QBs. interestingly, patrick mahomes also had 60 attempts in 2018 (though smith netted more mileage on the ground with his 60 attempts).

Not sure what this has to do with Alex Smith’s ADOT.

 

That being said it’s Reid’s system that makes a RB better, not the Quarterback.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kball09 said:

 

Because Chubb >>>> Ingram

And because this is a team that, if successful, won't suddenly limit their #1 to wedge in large touches for another RB. I think Hunt obviously gets some work, but this isn't New Orleans. People are trying to shove a round peg in a square hole here. Plenty of teams have two talented backs. Not many teams have Sean Payton and the Saints offensive personnel/scheme to do what they do.....or everyone would be doing it.

I didn’t bring up he Saints comp and don’t really think it’s worth discussing tbh. Saints had two great RBs and used them both a lot. Cleveland will do the same thing. End of comp.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Not sure what this has to do with Alex Smith’s ADOT.

 

That being said it’s Reid’s system that makes a RB better, not the Quarterback.

 

maybe i misread the previous poster’s intention (though still not sure if it has to do with passing downfield or rushing attempts, the latter certainly related to checking down with receiving RBs), but regarding your post and throwing downfield, 2017 showed a different level in smith’s career: his 4.2 deep passes per game landed him within the top 10, and his accuracy in the deep ball was #1… and hunt did pretty well with all of these deep passes flying over his head.

 

not to hijack the chubb thread, but we all remember the 2017 stats that led to alex smith’s big contract in Washington:


Passer rating: 134.7 (first).
Completion rate: 54.2 percent (first).
Percentage of yards: 30 percent (first).
Touchdown rate: 18.6 percent (second).

 

if something were to happen with chubb, i see hunt putting up RB1 numbers in the playoffs. yes, he was a product of andy reid’s system, but he also has talent, and the browns are a well-rounded team on both sides of the ball. still not drafting hunt, though. chubb’s too good, built like a tank, and who has an extra bench spot lying around for 10 weeks. whenever i'm in the auction room and people are bidding on hunt, i have to laugh.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I'd sum up this thread (to this point) by saying I think anyone thinking that Hunt is going to be a non-factor in Week 10 and beyond is in denial. You don't want to believe Hunt will shave some of his points in the fantasy playoffs but it's going to happen to some extent. I don't think it will be enough to knock Chubb off of RB1 value, but I do expect it to happen.

I am not saying to draft Hunt (unless deep benches), because bye weeks and injuries will probably have you dropping him by then. But I would anticipate at least 5-10 touches a week for Hunt.

Edited by sportsfreak2744
holy run-on sentence
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

I'd sum up this thread (to this point) by saying I think anyone thinking that Hunt is going to be a non-factor in Week 10 and beyond is in denial. You don't want to believe Hunt will shave some of his points in the fantasy playoffs but it's going to happen to some extent. I don't think it will be enough to knock Chubb off of RB1 value, but I do expect it to happen.

I am not saying to draft Hunt (unless deep benches), because bye weeks and injuries will probably have you dropping him by then. But I would anticipate at least 5-10 touches a week for Hunt.

I don’t know that Hunt vultures enough touches from Chubb to matter for either but Hunt is the perfect back to draft if you plan on holding him to pair with Gurley imo

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Are people forgetting that Hunt's 1327 rushing yards and 455 receiving yards came with Alex Smith at QB?

 

3 hours ago, kball09 said:

 

Alex Smith is a solid QB that barely ever goes downfield. He's a boon for receiving RBs. Dump-off city.

 

Last year was on pace for 1200/ 550 with a QB that frequently goes downfield and isn't dump-off city.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

I'd sum up this thread (to this point) by saying I think anyone thinking that Hunt is going to be a non-factor in Week 10 and beyond is in denial.

 

Reasons why:

1) They will use him to spell Chubb. They want to keep some tread on the tires. Not just for this year, but for years to come.

2) Hunts is a better receiver, even if, by only a little.

3) Chubb could very well get hurt. The other RBs aren't better than Hunt.

4) They may want to showcase Hunt. Make sure he's not 'outta sight outta mind' for possible trade bait.

5) Coach's ego. A little, 'you fools wish you had the cojones to take this guy, don't you.'

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

I'd sum up this thread (to this point) by saying I think anyone thinking that Hunt is going to be a non-factor in Week 10 and beyond is in denial. You don't want to believe Hunt will shave some of his points in the fantasy playoffs but it's going to happen to some extent. I don't think it will be enough to knock Chubb off of RB1 value, but I do expect it to happen.

I am not saying to draft Hunt (unless deep benches), because bye weeks and injuries will probably have you dropping him by then. But I would anticipate at least 5-10 touches a week for Hunt.

You've summed up your own posts more than the thread.  Very few have said non-factor. Lots (like me) just don't see the touches or potential for touches as a true threat to knock his ADP a few spots for reasons that have been explained for something like 42 pages.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, this guy right here said:

 

 

Last year was on pace for 1200/ 550 with a QB that frequently goes downfield and isn't dump-off city.

 

Sure, and their offense was much much better overall than it ever was with Smith, but his projections didn't skyrocket because the increase was in the WR/TE production from a much better QB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gufomel said:

This is pretty simple guys. Don’t overthink it. 

If I’m able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to have Hunt spell him when he’s beasting.

If I’m not able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to not give Hunt at least 40-50% of the RB touches when he’s eligible.

 

 

Awesome strategy 😂😄😄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gufomel said:

This is pretty simple guys. Don’t overthink it. 

If I’m able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to have Hunt spell him when he’s beasting.

If I’m not able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to not give Hunt at least 40-50% of the RB touches when he’s eligible.

Man this is so accurate it hurts

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In 2018, Chubb became the starter in week 7.  In those 10 games Chubb started, he averaged 6.2 yards per touch, 19.2 touches per game, and scored 8 TDs.

If that pace holds up this year, Chubb's looking at around 300 touches, 1800 total yards, and 12+ TDs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SadFaceHappy said:

In 2018, Chubb became the starter in week 7.  In those 10 games Chubb started, he averaged 6.2 yards per touch, 19.2 touches per game, and scored 8 TDs.

If that pace holds up this year, Chubb's looking at around 300 touches, 1800 total yards, and 12+ TDs.

 

1500 total yards*

He only had 823 rushing yards not the 996 he had for the season. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

your memory is incorrect, sir: when alex smith last played with the chiefs (2017, along with hunt), he ended the season with 60 rushing attempts, tied for 7th on the season, ahead of dak Prescott in attempts (and 2 yards behind dak prescott in total yards, #6 in yards for the season).

 

 

I wasn't talking about rushing attempts. I was referring to Smith's propensity to *throw* short and how it may benefit an RB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I didn’t bring up he Saints comp and don’t really think it’s worth discussing tbh. Saints had two great RBs and used them both a lot. Cleveland will do the same thing. End of comp.

 

Based on Duke Johnson's usage last year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

1500 total yards*

He only had 823 rushing yards not the 996 he had for the season. 

Right.

He also had 149 receiving yards weeks 7-17, 0 weeks 1-6.

996+149=1145 total yards for season. 

1145-173 (weeks 1-6 yards)=972 total yards weeks 7-17.

212 total touches - 16 (weeks 1-6) touches = 196 touches weeks 7-17... so 19.6 touches a game, not 19.2.

972 yards / 196 touches = 5.0 yards/touch.

Hmm.  Touche.  Don't know where I got the 6.2 yards/touch from.

Thanks for the correction!

1800 definitely seemed a bit high...

So looking at 300ish touches, 1500ish yards, 12ish TDs.  

Still pretty good

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People are over thinking this.  What’s going to happen after week 10 is irrelevant if you aren’t in position for the playoffs, and someone who spends a 7th or 8th round pick and burns a roster spot for 10 weeks of 0 points is really limiting their chances of making the playoffs.

 

If your team is actually looking like a contender to win your league by the time week 10 has come around then that most likely means you have also managed to snag some possible RB1/WR1 off the waiver at some point.  If that’s the case then Chubb being down graded from a high RB1 to a high RB2 at worst shouldn’t drastically change your teams outlook.  It’s not like you’re in a position where he’d have to be benched and you’re scrambling around for a replacement.

 

TLDR: 10 weeks is a looong time in fantasy football and roster construction.  Draft Chubb confidently and stop planning and/or worrying about 10 weeks from now.  Also, please don’t spend a 7th or 8th round pick on a player who won’t play for 10 weeks.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   1 member