munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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The only legitimate issue I see here is with the offensive line, which is why Hunt and his hernia and his 2.6 preseason YPC and his entire year of not playing or being near team facilities is not a problem. People think Hunt was good when it was just the KC system. He's a JAG

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Nick Chubb is an RB1. He's healthy, he's young, he's powerful, he can catch. And he looks like he has fit nicely into this offense.

See everyone back in this thread next week.

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10 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

Instead they got mayfield trying to force throws to Odel. Terrible play calling.

Just my .02 but I think/hope that was more about Kitchens trying to rub the Jets DC Williams comments about OBJ in his face.

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6 minutes ago, Fabrini said:

Just my .02 but I think/hope that was more about Kitchens trying to rub the Jets DC Williams comments about OBJ in his face.

That’s a valid point. So I hope I’m wrong and this was it. They really wanted To throw it in his face

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52 minutes ago, Fabrini said:

Just my .02 but I think/hope that was more about Kitchens trying to rub the Jets DC Williams comments about OBJ in his face.

He should have rubbed his Chubb in his face instead.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

He should have rubbed his Chubb in his face instead.

At least 9 more yards worth as that's what I lost my game by.

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20 minutes ago, Fabrini said:

At least 9 more yards worth as that's what I lost my game by.

 

Sorry dude. Chubb had some negative gains and stuffed at line of scrimmage too. 

Guys I'm just worried about inept coaching and the o line. Baker doesn't look great but passable. Chubb is a 70% snap player that is miraculously getting 20 touches. Basically when he's in there's a high probability he's getting a touch, hence why defenses can play up against the run when he's in. Browns just seem so God damn predictable and lack creativity on offense that I think we could all get frustrated with Chubb and his floor games.

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Chubb has had a bad start to the year and is still on pace for 1,100, 8TDs and 56 receptions. 

The sample size is extremely small. All he needs is a couple of big plays/1 big game and he will be on pace for pretty exactly what everyone expected. 

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2 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

Chubb has had a bad start to the year and is still on pace for 1,100, 8TDs and 56 receptions. 

The sample size is extremely small. All he needs is a couple of big plays/1 big game and he will be on pace for pretty exactly what everyone expected. 

That projection looks bad enough when you don't even factor in Hunt

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Kitchens was ridiculous last night with his usage and play calling. Nothing good happened while Johnson was in for Chubb, and dropping Baker back with a minute left while up 20 points was incredibly stupid. Hopefully they adjust...

 

the weirdest thing was seeing the coaches comfortable enough with Chubb to split him out wide multiple times, but put in Johnson on 3rd downs/hurry up O. Just weird.

 

Chubb will be fine and I'm not worried about Hunt. What Hunt did in KC doesn't translate to the Browns.

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55 minutes ago, Mr.STD said:

Kitchens was ridiculous last night with his usage and play calling. Nothing good happened while Johnson was in for Chubb, and dropping Baker back with a minute left while up 20 points was incredibly stupid. Hopefully they adjust...

 

the weirdest thing was seeing the coaches comfortable enough with Chubb to split him out wide multiple times, but put in Johnson on 3rd downs/hurry up O. Just weird.

 

Chubb will be fine and I'm not worried about Hunt. What Hunt did in KC doesn't translate to the Browns.

 

I appreciate the confidence. Can you talk me down from thinking things won't be fine? Like Donald demolishing the browns o line this weekend and Chubb getting swallowed up? If they browns want any chance of winning it'll be with Chubb right now. They need to scale back this offense to a lower risk offense until it's ironed out but this coaching staff doesn't look great. 

 

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"Hunt is just a guy"

"Hunt was a product of the KC system"

"Hunt isn't good"

"Hunt won't eat into Chubb's workload"

I keep seeing these scattered throughout this thread, and they have absolutely no merit to them. From what we've seen from Hunt is that he is good. Granted that was from the KC system. And we haven't seen him out of the KC system, so you can't exactly say he sucks yet can you? 

Hunt is going to be a factor whether you like it or not. And Chubb getting spelled on 3rd downs (for some guy named Johnson) even when the game was in hand is not great. How do you imagine that shakes out when Hunt returns?

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8 minutes ago, street sharks said:

"Hunt is just a guy"

"Hunt was a product of the KC system"

"Hunt isn't good"

"Hunt won't eat into Chubb's workload"

I keep seeing these scattered throughout this thread, and they have absolutely no merit to them. From what we've seen from Hunt is that he is good. Granted that was from the KC system. And we haven't seen him out of the KC system, so you can't exactly say he sucks yet can you? 

Hunt is going to be a factor whether you like it or not. And Chubb getting spelled on 3rd downs (for some guy named Johnson) even when the game was in hand is not great. How do you imagine that shakes out when Hunt returns?

Substitute Johnson/Hilliard with Hunt. Anyone who said Hunt isn't good is an exaggerating/overreacting which should be expected on an internet forum, much like the overreactions currently being posted in this thread about Chubb's workload.

Chubb might go from 20+ touches to 16+ touches with Hunt in the fold but who really knows. Chubb was never going to be a guy who was in on every down no matter what this season despite what random fantasy "experts" wanted you to believe. If you drafted Chubb in the 2nd round and are disappointed that he wasn't in on every 3rd down play on MNF even though he still got 22 touches then you're going to continue to be disappointed. Chubb isn't a two down back that will completely be phased out if game script goes negative for the Browns (see week 1) so I'm not sure why people are freaking out. He's not Alfred Morris. Sit back and enjoy the 20+ touches Chubb gets every week because several of those weeks he's going to explode all providing a safe floor of 8-9 points.  

I'm guessing (which is all we can do) that Chubb will still see on average 16 or so carries and a couple catches when Hunt returns. Hunt will still probably be good for 8 or so touches (carries and catches) per week with obvious fluctuation from week to week. I'm guessing Hunt will slide into the 3rd down roll and potentially spell Chubb a bit more often than the current 3rd down back(s) do for the Browns. 

Chubb is currently a middle of the road RB1 and will probably slide back into a middle of the road to high end RB2 when Hunt returns. 

Bottom line is Chubb is more talented than Hunt but that doesn't mean Hunt is just some scrub. 

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30 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Substitute Johnson/Hilliard with Hunt. Anyone who said Hunt isn't good is an exaggerating/overreacting which should be expected on an internet forum, much like the overreactions currently being posted in this thread about Chubb's workload.

Chubb might go from 20+ touches to 16+ touches with Hunt in the fold but who really knows. Chubb was never going to be a guy who was in on every down no matter what this season despite what random fantasy "experts" wanted you to believe. If you drafted Chubb in the 2nd round and are disappointed that he wasn't in on every 3rd down play on MNF even though he still got 22 touches then you're going to continue to be disappointed. Chubb isn't a two down back that will completely be phased out if game script goes negative for the Browns (see week 1) so I'm not sure why people are freaking out. He's not Alfred Morris. Sit back and enjoy the 20+ touches Chubb gets every week because several of those weeks he's going to explode all providing a safe floor of 8-9 points.  

I'm guessing (which is all we can do) that Chubb will still see on average 16 or so carries and a couple catches when Hunt returns. Hunt will still probably be good for 8 or so touches (carries and catches) per week with obvious fluctuation from week to week. I'm guessing Hunt will slide into the 3rd down roll and potentially spell Chubb a bit more often than the current 3rd down back(s) do for the Browns. 

Chubb is currently a middle of the road RB1 and will probably slide back into a middle of the road to high end RB2 when Hunt returns. 

Bottom line is Chubb is more talented than Hunt but that doesn't mean Hunt is just some scrub. 

No one knows if Chubb is more talented than hunt at this point. Hunt had some monster games. And if your predicting 16 carries and a couple catches for a second round pick. Everyone should be disappointed. I’m sure people who drafted him were hoping he would at least be used in some third downs. Otherwise why reach for him in the second.

Edited by StevenSC400
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There's nothing to be disappointed about unless you drafted Chubb before Cook in the 2nd round. That's about it.

 

Edited by dropshadows
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7 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

There's nothing to be disappointed about unless you drafted Chubb before Cook in the 2nd round. That's about it.

 

<quickly goes to check draft recap....> 

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11 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

No one knows if Chubb is more talented than hunt at this point. Hunt had some monster games. And if your predicting 16 carries and a couple catches for a second round pick. Everyone should be disappointed. I’m sure people who drafted him were hoping he would at least be used in some third downs. Otherwise why reach for him in the second.

Chubb is more talented than Hunt. That's not speculation or meaningless hype, it's a fact. Again, that's not to say Hunt isn't good and isn't a top 12 or so RB talent in the NFL but he's not on Chubb's level. 

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at with the 16 carries part for a 2nd round pick. He's getting 20+ touches right now, which is why he was a 2nd round pick, with the expectation that he'll probably sink down to 16+ when Hunt returns. If the Hunt aspect wasn't baked into Chubb's ADP he would have been a 1st round draft pick who could have gone as early as #5 overall behind the "big 4."

I'm not sure why people are beating the drum on this 3rd down aspect. Chubb had 4 catches and 18 carries last night and he had 3 catches in week 1. It does not matter (that much) that he's not in on 3rd downs because he's still going to catch passes and is still going to be a workhorse on early downs. Would I like to see Chubb in on every single play? Sure, but you're making a big deal out a very little knock on his usage. Chubb wasn't in on every down as a rookie when he became the starter and yet he was still overall RB6 during that span. 

He was RB7 in standard scoring this last week. Everyone needs to calm down. 

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I think the issue here is the offense in general and coaching. The offense needs to improve and get to the red zone more often. Those are the money touches. Chubb won't score from 19 yards out every week, but he's talented enough to take one to the house any place obviously

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2 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

I think the issue here is the offense in general and coaching. The offense needs to improve and get to the red zone more often. Those are the money touches. Chubb won't score from 19 yards out every week, but he's talented enough to take one to the house any place obviously

This. So it’s not just the touches etc it’s a combination of things happening here. And the unknown with hunt when he comes back really adds to it. 

Edited by StevenSC400

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Your gonna start seeing more check downs to Chubb who is good out of the backfield... Mayfield cant keep trying to sling it down field every play. He's gotta be smart and take his yards. I'm sure the coaching staff will let him know. 

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5 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

Chubb has had a bad start to the year and is still on pace for 1,100, 8TDs and 56 receptions. 

The sample size is extremely small. All he needs is a couple of big plays/1 big game and he will be on pace for pretty exactly what everyone expected. 

 

5 hours ago, Novaray said:

That projection looks bad enough when you don't even factor in Hunt

 

He's on a pace of 250.4 points in PPR.

 

That'd make him:

RB9 overall in 2018

RB8 overall in 2017

RB8 overall in 2016

RB3 overall in 2015

RB8 overall in 2014 

 

So if you want to argue that we're seeing Chubb's ceiling this season and it's going to get worse from here when Hunt arrives, fine, that's a valid argument.

 

If you want to argue that his current pace (which would make him an RB1 in all 5 of the last 5 seasons) is poor, then you're just being greedy or ignorant, take your pick.

Edited by vercrazy
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Said it in the game thread last night. The Browns will be careful early in the season with his usage since they basically have two running backs healthy. When Hilliard comes back I think you’ll get a more accurate idea what the staff will do whenever Hunt comes off suspension. He’ll get the touches that Johnson and Hilliard are splitting for 7 more weeks. I think that means an uptick in carries for Chubb and 2-3 check downs per game. 

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3 hours ago, FootballOutsider said:

Said it in the game thread last night. The Browns will be careful early in the season with his usage since they basically have two running backs healthy. When Hilliard comes back I think you’ll get a more accurate idea what the staff will do whenever Hunt comes off suspension. He’ll get the touches that Johnson and Hilliard are splitting for 7 more weeks. I think that means an uptick in carries for Chubb and 2-3 check downs per game. 

 

All good points. Thanks for sharing- rams are a different team on the road so If they need to unleash him now would be the time.

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4 hours ago, vercrazy said:

He's on a pace of 250.4 points in PPR.

 

That'd make him:

RB9 overall in 2018

RB8 overall in 2017

RB8 overall in 2016

RB3 overall in 2015

RB8 overall in 2014 

 

So if you want to argue that we're seeing Chubb's ceiling this season and it's going to get worse from here when Hunt arrives, fine, that's a valid argument.

 

If you want to argue that his current pace (which would make him an RB1 in all 5 of the last 5 seasons) is poor, then you're just being greedy or ignorant, take your pick.

 

What did I just read?

OK. So he's on track for being RB8 or RB9 in most of the last 5 seasons. This is not taking Hunt into account. Where in that does it say his current pace is RB1?

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