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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, LuckyLukas said:

so what's the problem with Kitchens? Last season when he took over as OC, it was all good for Mayfield and Co. Obviously he is not Sean McVay but he was on the rise as an offensive mastermind a'la McVay..so why is it so bad when it was quite good?

 

He was? Honestly asking..

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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8 hours ago, RunCMC said:

 

 

You were saying ? 49ers have a very underrated D . Coming off a bye week , at home, fully prepared . Writing was all over the wall for Cleveland & Chubb to choke this game. 

 

 

You forgot the STUD, NICK BOSA ! kid's the real deal Holyfield. 

 

He got 10 pts minimum. That was the expectation. The other expectation is that Cleveland's passing offense wouldn't be so freaking in the trash against a pass defense that really wasn't necessarily elite. Monday morning qb anyone?

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

They let their OLine walk away. Rams are struggling offensively as well after losing two very good starters.

Agreed.  Since we're talking about the Rams, I think a major part of the problem, ironically, is Greg Robinson.

Too bad Joe Thomas retired.  After years of having a great line and no skills guys the shoe being on the other foot is still a problem for Cleveland.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, LuckyLukas said:

so what's the problem with Kitchens? Last season when he took over as OC, it was all good for Mayfield and Co. Obviously he is not Sean McVay but he was on the rise as an offensive mastermind a'la McVay..so why is it so bad when it was quite good?

 

Their entire philosophy from last season seems to have gone out the window in favor of a gameplan that amplifies the deficiencies their QB possesses. Also doesn't help that they really should be a run first, play-action kinda team but they let their OLine fall apart in the offseason...

They basically assembled their team like it's Madden, loading up on all the skill positions with big names (even when it's very unnecessary like the addition of Hunt) while ignoring the less glamorous roles like OLine. 

Edited by MoonBlaster
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9 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

He got 10 pts minimum. That was the expectation. The other expectation is that Cleveland's passing offense wouldn't be so freaking in the trash against a pass defense that really wasn't necessarily elite. Monday morning qb anyone?

 

The 49ers defense looked good last night, and they made Mayfield look even worse than he has all season, but agreed that you can't really say they stopped Chubb yesterday.

 

He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and if you prorate last night's numbers he'd have a season with 1,392 rushing yards (would've been 2nd last year behind Zeke) and 1,584 rushing/receiving yards, which would've been 6th behind Zeke, Barkley, Kamara, CMC, and Gurley, all of which were drafted ahead of Chubb sans-Gurley, who would've been drafted ahead of Chubb if his knee wasn't problematic.

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Posted (edited)

Since when does considering all options equal “panic”? There’s no reason to “panic” on Chubb, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider all relevant info and weigh your options. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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No panic here, he played a great DEF last night.  These will happen.  Worried about the team, not the player.  

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Also, Chubbs usage is fine. He is getting a lot of carries they just went away from the run in the second half for obvious reasons. You can't expect a team to pound the rock down 3 scores. He is getting touches.

The problem is he can be doing even better. The way this offense is run is hard to watch. Stop treating Odell like he is some god and stop trying to make everyone happy. 

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All in all still not concerned about Chubb's outlook, his floor appears to be double digits regardless of game script as he is getting a lot of touches week to week. I know the ghost of Kareem Hunt is causing an irrational stir with certain people here but I think the bigger concern is that Cleveland won't be in many scoring positions over the next few games with some solid pass defenses on the horizon.

It's very apparent that Chubb bailed out Kitchens in the game against Baltimore as not much has really changed on the play calling front all season save for a few oddly timed trick plays here and there.. Fortunately so far talent has out-weighed a poor situation with Chubb right now.

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1 hour ago, FFdisciple said:

No panic here, he played a great DEF last night.  These will happen.  Worried about the team, not the player.  

 

I'm with you, and absolutely agree. I'm much more concerned with Freddie Kitchens (suspect playcalling), Mayfield, and that OL than the player himself.

It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out, and if they can get this figured out.

 

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Chubb has gotten over double digit points every week (in half-PPR +) and is a top 5 back in fantasy currently. 

I understand the frustration with usage in terms of how this offense is run. However, being frustrated with the player or the pick is hilarious. Dude has a floor of 10 points and a ceiling as high as anyone in the league. He's gotten 20 touches every week except this week which again, the game flow was as horrible as it can possibly be. Obviously everyone would like him more involved but acting like he has been anything other than very very good is flat out incorrect. 

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No one should be upset at all with his usage or his performance last night. Given the game script and being down by 3 scores at the half I feel the end result could have been much worse and in 99% of cases would be. SF front is legit and Chubb averaged 5.4 yds/carry and they stuck with utilizing the run game even when down by so much. If it was, for example, LAR this season, there would've been only 1-2 carries in the 2nd half when down by 3 scores.

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8 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Fair points but who we trading Chubb for?

Since he was probably your RB1, you're probably hoping to get a RB in return. Even with a Hunt return and him conceivably eating into at least some of the 3rd down work, there aren't many RB I'd rather have.

 

 

I'm thinking about going for bell

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

 

I'm thinking about going for bell

 

I'm also thinking of going for him.... It is such a tough call but I kinda like Bell with Darnold back.

Chubbs' easy playoff schedule is the only thing holding me back

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2 hours ago, trolltoll said:

No one should be upset at all with his usage or his performance last night. Given the game script and being down by 3 scores at the half I feel the end result could have been much worse and in 99% of cases would be. SF front is legit and Chubb averaged 5.4 yds/carry and they stuck with utilizing the run game even when down by so much. If it was, for example, LAR this season, there would've been only 1-2 carries in the 2nd half when down by 3 scores.

 

Hi Troll, you are incorrect and probably doing it intentionally.  plenty of fans have good reason to be upset.  I don't know how long you've watched football but when a team is up as big as the niners were last night, they sit back and give you all of the short passes you can eat.  That's Chubb territory.  And if they don't want to give it to Chubb, at least give it to somebody else in the flats for the love of Christ.  What did they do instead?  0 passing yards in the second half.  You have no idea what you're talking about.  

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4 hours ago, matthew berry said:

 

Hi Troll, you are incorrect and probably doing it intentionally.  plenty of fans have good reason to be upset.  I don't know how long you've watched football but when a team is up as big as the niners were last night, they sit back and give you all of the short passes you can eat.  That's Chubb territory.  And if they don't want to give it to Chubb, at least give it to somebody else in the flats for the love of Christ.  What did they do instead?  0 passing yards in the second half.  You have no idea what you're talking about.  

I've only been watching about a year. I thought that was enough to know something about football, but the greatest fantasy football analyst that ever lived decided to make an account on the rotoworld forums and shut me down. I apologize for offending you with my incompetence. 

And you're right, i'm upset my players don't get me 30+ points each game. I wouldn't disagree that Chubb should've received more looks in the flats or short dump passes, but again given the script and SF's front I'll take the 17 touches and 10 pts all day and that's the point I'm trying to make. Could've been worse and you know it. It's easy to sit back and call out every wrong move by the team after the game where if X happened it would've benefited your fantasy player and in no way do I support kitchen's play calling as I think it's been pretty terrible thus far. 

I think it's also important to note that SF was on Mayfield like white on the rice the entire game, he was never comfortable, there might've been several short pass plays designed to get Chubb the ball that weren't able to develop, it seemed like SF was immediately penetrating the Oline almost every play. Mayfield also has a hard time finding an open guy after his first read and you can't make Chubb his first read every play.

P.S. You mentioned for the love of Christ to just give it to someone in the flats, well if they do that, then according to my calculations Chubb wouldn't get any points if that were to happen? I'll need your expert take on that one though since I'm new to football. 

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He's been so good it's not technically a "buy low" but if an owner is worried about the mess that is the offense right now I'd at least send a feeler deal out there. 

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On 10/9/2019 at 2:43 AM, BGDDYKWL said:

He's been so good it's not technically a "buy low" but if an owner is worried about the mess that is the offense right now I'd at least send a feeler deal out there. 

 

I'm worried and traded him with AJG and Lamar Jackson for Alvin Kamara and Aaron Rodgers in probably a massive overpay.

I have a few concerns with Chubb right now. 

1) The offense isn't as good as I thought it would be. I expected a top 5 offense to be honest with the weapons, so I expected more goal line opportunities. I haven't seen many so far, and I think Chubb got vultured too once but I wasn't too concerned about that. 

2) His lack of passing game work. You're down 20+ to the 49ers, would it kill you to check down or screen to Chubb? I expected more than 1 target. His ADP shot up in anticipation of increased passing game usage after Duke was let go, but so far it hasn't changed since last year. This was a big concern for me cause I play in PPR. 

3) Kareem Hunt return in week 9. He might not have a big role, idk, but Cleveland dealt with the PR hit only to bench him? I highly doubt it so I'm somewhat concerned about Kareem Hunt. He can catch and he's elusive. If he takes just 20% of Chubb's work, it knocks Chubb down to high rb2

4) That OL sucks. I'm not confident in that line and Baker at all. 

 

I'm probably a fool. Oh well, it's a guessing game anyway

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat
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7 hours ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

 

3) Kareem Hunt return in week 9. He might not have a big role, idk, but Cleveland dealt with the PR hit only to bench him? I highly doubt it so I'm somewhat concerned about Kareem Hunt. He can catch and he's elusive. If he takes just 20% of Chubb's work, it knocks Chubb down to high rb2

 

 

Fresh take.

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7 hours ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

I'm worried and traded him with AJG and Lamar Jackson for Alvin Kamara and Aaron Rodgers in probably a massive overpay.

I have a few concerns with Chubb right now. 

1) The offense isn't as good as I thought it would be. I expected a top 5 offense to be honest with the weapons, so I expected more goal line opportunities. I haven't seen many so far, and I think Chubb got vultured too once but I wasn't too concerned about that. 

2) His lack of passing game work. You're down 20+ to the 49ers, would it kill you to check down or screen to Chubb? I expected more than 1 target. His ADP shot up in anticipation of increased passing game usage after Duke was let go, but so far it hasn't changed since last year. This was a big concern for me cause I play in PPR. 

3) Kareem Hunt return in week 9. He might not have a big role, idk, but Cleveland dealt with the PR hit only to bench him? I highly doubt it so I'm somewhat concerned about Kareem Hunt. He can catch and he's elusive. If he takes just 20% of Chubb's work, it knocks Chubb down to high rb2

4) That OL sucks. I'm not confident in that line and Baker at all. 

 

I'm probably a fool. Oh well, it's a guessing game anyway

I don't think they're entirely unfounded concerns.

I'll say that regarding the offense, we need to see if the line gets better.  The freshest impression might be against one of the best front sevens in football.  Two weeks ago he was dropping bombs on the Ravens.  They (49ers) don't allow for much space for the backs in the passing game either.  But in general Chubb will do his best work on the ground.

Hunt, IDK.  It seems likely to me that he has a role, though if Chubb plays like he is capable of, I doubt it's much more of a dent than say, Latavius Murray with the Saints.

Anyway, I can't fault your decision making process, it is what it is at this point (which ain't bad).  But I just have a lot of faith in Chubb the athlete.  Talent usually wins out.  JMO.

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7 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't think they're entirely unfounded concerns.

I'll say that regarding the offense, we need to see if the line gets better.  The freshest impression might be against one of the best front sevens in football.  Two weeks ago he was dropping bombs on the Ravens.  They (49ers) don't allow for much space for the backs in the passing game either.  But in general Chubb will do his best work on the ground.

Hunt, IDK.  It seems likely to me that he has a role, though if Chubb plays like he is capable of, I doubt it's much more of a dent than say, Latavius Murray with the Saints.

Anyway, I can't fault your decision making process, it is what it is at this point (which ain't bad).  But I just have a lot of faith in Chubb the athlete.  Talent usually wins out.  JMO.

 

You're probably right and why I feared I was overreacting. However, if Chubb and Jackson repeat their performance this week with only target, his value falls quiet a bit. I can't see any way Kamara's and Rodger's trade value decreases unless they get hurt. Therefore, I'm at peace with the trade. 

 

I had Chubb last year and I believe in the player. However, I'm not 100% sure his talent is that much higher than Hunt. Obviously, the best thing for Chubb's fantasy value is that Hunt is injured and can't practice with the team, which should limit him for a coupl of weeks. But I'm 5-0 and trying to win the league so the fantasy playoffs are very important for me. I just don't see any way Hunt is not involved. Chubb's an interest case cause his snap share varies a lot week to week. Week 2 he got like 60 and week 3 he got 97 then back to 64. For all the Chubb fans that think Hunt won't have a role, remember the precedent has already been set for Chubb only getting 60% of the snaps and because it's been set, the chances it happens again is higher in my opinion. 

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat

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God I love this guy.

Rare talent, absolute stud. But humble about it and just goes about his business. Nothing I respect more than that combination. No cockiness or showing off. Simply jumps right back up and runs over to the huddle for the next play.

Easily in the conversation of top three backs in the league in terms of pure running.

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