joebaker23

James Conner 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I am probably out on Conner.  He's a good player, but Big Ben and the Steelers abandoned the run for weeks at a time during different points in the season in 2018.  It is not working out too well when your fantasy team's no. 1 running back gets 9 carries in an entire game.

 

Cause they were down and the defense couldnt stop anyone at one point

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/14/2019 at 10:25 PM, elroypedro said:

RB coach and O-Line coach, both considered elite across the league, both out in Pitt

 

This. Good reason to stay away honestly. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, dashoe said:

so this means start of the season no one will have a good idea of the predictable splits  between jaylen and conner until week 3 or 4

Huh? PIT is the most predictable when it comes to offensive RB usage. It's a clear 1 back system--hence why Conner was such an obv 'cuff'...We know he's the guy behind a great offensive line and solid system. No doubt 1st Rd pick in any type of format imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Huh? PIT is the most predictable when it comes to offensive RB usage. It's a clear 1 back system--hence why Conner was such an obv 'cuff'...We know he's the guy behind a great offensive line and solid system. No doubt 1st Rd pick in any type of format imo.

The above is exactly how Conner owners should be selling high on him. 2019 is going to look a lot different than 2018 in Pittsburgh. 

1. Esteemed  O-line coach is gone.

2. Esteeme RB coach is gone. Who did they replace him with?...,

3. Eddie Faulkner, who coached Jaylen Samuels at NC State.

4. Antonio Brown will be gone, allowing defenses to focus a little more vs the run.

5. Jaylen Samuels is an excellent receiver, and Faulkner will undoubtedly want to exploit him which greatly diminishes Conner’s ppr value.

6. Conner is a physical runner, which likely means more injuries, concussions, etc. Pittsburgh would be wise to limit his touches to an extent, which ma be why they brought Faulkner in to get the most out of Samuels.

7. No AB means the offense will likely take a step back in general, which means fewer scoring opportunities for Conner.

In summary, while Conner is an easy guy to root for, 2018 was likely his peak. The 2019 Steelers will probably score fewer points, and Conner will probably be used as more if a 1st/2nd down banger with Samuels worked in on passing situations, potentially more. Sell high on Conner while people still think 2018 will look just like 2019 in Pittsburgh.

 

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Huh? PIT is the most predictable when it comes to offensive RB usage. It's a clear 1 back system--hence why Conner was such an obv 'cuff'...We know he's the guy behind a great offensive line and solid system. No doubt 1st Rd pick in any type of format imo.

I think Pitt WAS the most predictable but not anymore. . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

The above is exactly how Conner owners should be selling high on him. 2019 is going to look a lot different than 2018 in Pittsburgh. 

1. Esteemed  O-line coach is gone.

2. Esteeme RB coach is gone. Who did they replace him with?...,

3. Eddie Faulkner, who coached Jaylen Samuels at NC State.

4. Antonio Brown will be gone, allowing defenses to focus a little more vs the run.

5. Jaylen Samuels is an excellent receiver, and Faulkner will undoubtedly want to exploit him which greatly diminishes Conner’s ppr value.

6. Conner is a physical runner, which likely means more injuries, concussions, etc. Pittsburgh would be wise to limit his touches to an extent, which ma be why they brought Faulkner in to get the most out of Samuels.

7. No AB means the offense will likely take a step back in general, which means fewer scoring opportunities for Conner.

In summary, while Conner is an easy guy to root for, 2018 was likely his peak. The 2019 Steelers will probably score fewer points, and Conner will probably be used as more if a 1st/2nd down banger with Samuels worked in on passing situations, potentially more. Sell high on Conner while people still think 2018 will look just like 2019 in Pittsburgh.

 

 

agree with your highlights, but disagree with the rotowire staff article: " Conner was also productive in the passing game, but he doesn't have comparable receiving upside to Samuels, who often lined up as a tight end and H-back at NC State." samuels has the TE experience and was also a TE at the combine, but anyone who has seen conner receive has seen ample merit in his hands. his one-handed catch vs the chiefs:

james-conner-of-the-pittsburgh-steelers-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am pretty sure Conner will be the guy in 2019, but Samuels is a terrific support player and good depth.  But I am only pretty sure about that.  It seems likely that Conner will be overdrafted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/21/2019 at 9:00 AM, Lamont Sanford said:

The above is exactly how Conner owners should be selling high on him. 2019 is going to look a lot different than 2018 in Pittsburgh. 

1. Esteemed  O-line coach is gone.

2. Esteeme RB coach is gone. Who did they replace him with?...,

3. Eddie Faulkner, who coached Jaylen Samuels at NC State.

4. Antonio Brown will be gone, allowing defenses to focus a little more vs the run.

5. Jaylen Samuels is an excellent receiver, and Faulkner will undoubtedly want to exploit him which greatly diminishes Conner’s ppr value.

6. Conner is a physical runner, which likely means more injuries, concussions, etc. Pittsburgh would be wise to limit his touches to an extent, which ma be why they brought Faulkner in to get the most out of Samuels.

7. No AB means the offense will likely take a step back in general, which means fewer scoring opportunities for Conner.

In summary, while Conner is an easy guy to root for, 2018 was likely his peak. The 2019 Steelers will probably score fewer points, and Conner will probably be used as more if a 1st/2nd down banger with Samuels worked in on passing situations, potentially more. Sell high on Conner while people still think 2018 will look just like 2019 in Pittsburgh.

 

I like the point you made about the RB coach. 

 

Definitely some risks there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Losing those coaches is a hit, but Tomlin will probably do everything in his power to make Conner & JuJu all-pros in ‘19 out of spite, right?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Losing those coaches is a hit, but Tomlin will probably do everything in his power to make Conner & JuJu all-pros in ‘19 out of spite, right?

And Big Ben will try to do the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/22/2019 at 6:32 PM, bhawks489 said:

I like the point you made about the RB coach. 

 

Definitely some risks there

 

You could make a list like that about almost every player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

You could make a list like that about almost every player.

Feel free to start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

You could make a list like that about almost every player.

 

No, you cannot. You can make a list of some kind  about almost every player, but not a list like that. Lots of major changes affecting Conner this year, and none of them positive as far as I can tell.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

No, you cannot. You can make a list of some kind  about almost every player, but not a list like that. Lots of major changes affecting Conner this year, and none of them positive as far as I can tell.

 

 

the two constants that may overcome those detriments is Big ben + Tomlin.

A vet QB + HC can keep stability and continuity of an offense going however the issues you listed should cause conners to come at a nice  value discount. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Feel free to start.

 

I don't want to derail the thread. But you can write out a list of negatives like that for the majority of players. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I don't want to derail the thread. But you can write out a list of negatives like that for the majority of players. 

Oh I just meant for the one particular point where the RB coach worked with samuels in college. May not mean much but they could have built a decent relationship

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I don't want to derail the thread. But you can write out a list of negatives like that for the majority of players. 

I understand your point about being able to list negatives for every player. It just comes down to how legit, how significant, how concerning, and how new those negatives actually are.

 

For example, claiming that James White is a negative for Sony Michel’s PPR value is legit, but it’s nothing new for 2019. On the other hand, consisering the new RB coach in Pittsburgh used to coach Jaylen Samuels, and Samuels is a great receiver, there’s a legit reason to speculate that Samuels might have a larger, evolving role in the passing game in his second season, hurting Conners PPR value in 2019. 

 

Josh Gordon potentially being suspended/gone could be listed as a concern for Michel, as defenses could key on the run more. But do any of us truly believe Gordon’s absence will have a big impact on Michel’s success? Not really, imo. Gordon’s absence won’t have nearly the same impact on NE offense as AB’s absence will from Pittsburgh’s. Gronk’s potential retirement could indeed be a legit negative for Michel.

Sure, other teams will have new offensive line coaches,whixh cound be liated as a negative, but in some cases that could arguably be a positive change. Not the case for Conner, as he’s losing one of the best. How much of an impact that will actually have is difficult to say, but clearly that appears to be a negative change for 2019.

As these negatives start to pile up, at some point you have to acknowledge them and start factoring them into expectations. 

 

 

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imo, anyone trying to devalue a player based on a new RB coach is simply pushing their own narrative.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Imo, anyone trying to devalue a player based on a new RB coach is simply pushing their own narrative.

What else is there to talk about in February 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Imo, anyone trying to devalue a player based on a new RB coach is simply pushing their own narrative.

What about the loss of a great offensive line coach, as well as the impending loss of arguably the best WR in football? Still not enough to warrant a slight devaluation? Anyone trying to convince themselves that those things have zero effect on anything is simply going full blown ostrich. 

As far as a new RB coach, normally I’d agree that in and of itself shouldn’t warrant much of a devaluation. But when the new RB coach just happens to be Eddie Faulkner, the guy who coached Jaylen Samuels two years ago in college, it seems more than coincidental. Samuels looked like a legit offensive weapon when given a chance in his rookie year. Even without Faulkner coming on board the threat of Samuels eating into Conners wotkload was real. The hiring of Faulkner certainly adds fuel to that fire.  

I like James Conner, who doesn’t? I understand Conner owners don’t want to hear this stuff, but there are legit reasons to expect his fantasy numbers to be down from last year. If I were a Conner owner, and I was, instead of blindy rejecting the warning signs I’d be heeding them and selling high before those who aren’t paying attention start taking notice. 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

What about the loss of a great offensive line coach, as well as the impending loss of arguably the best WR in football? Still not enough to warrant a slight devaluation? Anyone trying to convince themselves that those things have zero effect on anything is simply going full blown ostrich. 

As far as a new RB coach, normally I’d agree that in and of itself shouldn’t warrant much of a devaluation. But when the new RB coach just happens to be Eddie Faulkner, the guy who coached Jaylen Samuels two years ago in college, it seems more than coincidental. Samuels looked like a legit offensive weapon when given a chance in his rookie year. Even without Faulkner coming on board the threat of Samuels eating into Conners wotkload was real. The hiring of Faulkner certainly adds fuel to that fire.  

I like James Conner, who doesn’t? I understand Conner owners don’t want to hear this stuff, but there are legit reasons to expect his fantasy numbers to be down from last year. If I were a Conner owner, and I was, instead of blindy rejecting the warning signs I’d be heeding them and selling high before those who aren’t paying attention start taking notice.

It's just positional coaches--not even anything to do with coordination, I'll grant you it might be a very slight part of the overall puzzle but what's he gonna do, take Conner off the field or something? He can talk his old guy up all he wants, this is Tomlin and Big Ben's show and they run it exactly how they want to--with huge success too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

It's just positional coaches--not even anything to do with coordination, I'll grant you it might be a very slight part of the overall puzzle but what's he gonna do, take Conner off the field or something? He can talk his old guy up all he wants, this is Tomlin and Big Ben's show and they run it exactly how they want to--with huge success too!

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

It's just positional coaches--not even anything to do with coordination, I'll grant you it might be a very slight part of the overall puzzle but what's he gonna do, take Conner off the field or something? He can talk his old guy up all he wants, this is Tomlin and Big Ben's show and they run it exactly how they want to--with huge success too!

Why bother have positional coaches if the head coach doesn't listen to them? And who knows how much longer Tomlin/ Ben will be there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...