thebadferret

David Johnson 2019 Outlook

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Small recap:

After his legendary 2016 performance (1239+16 rushing and 80-897+4 receiving) he missed the whole '17 season with a wrist injury, just to come back as a Top4 pick into his third year. Unfortunetly (for all the people drafting him) he had a down year - at least for his 2016 standard. He finished as the 10th best RB this season with a 940+7 rushing and a 50-446+3 receiving stat line.

 

---

 

I'm really torn apart with this guy for the '19 season.

 

Negative:

- second year QB

- lack of weapons on offense

- worst offensive line in the league (via PPF)

 

Positive:

- we know what he can do

- even though he was on the worst team in the league and had a down year, he came up with  1.4k yards, 50 rec and 10 TDs which is an insane floor if you think about it

- we have seen in 2016 that he is able to be the only weapon on a team

- Rookie quarterback trying to gain confidence with dumping it to the RB in the early game

 

 

In the end, there are a lot of question that are unanswered as of now. Maybe some will be answered in the off season, but that depends on the moves that the Cardinals are going to do: Coachs, Free Agency and Draft

 

With all the RB talent and the status of RBs in FF in general i can see him going between picks 8 and 16. And if I can scoop im at the end of the first round or even at the turn (16 team league), I'd be feeling really good.

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On the downside, he really had a disappointing season, and their roster is such a mess that its really hard to see someone coming in and completely fixing it to a point where he can dominate

 

On the upside, i'm usually a pessimist, but I really don't think this roster can get worse.   I'd feel better if they ditched the GM, but he's got to see the need for linemen.  Another positive is that even when DJ was peaking, their line wasn't all that great.   He doesn't need 3 pro bowlers, necessarily.

 

Also, for the love of god, where were the pass game targets?   Still one of the biggest usage head-scratchers of 2018.  In a time where more and more teams endlessly pass to their RB's, a team with little in the way of WR depth,, and one of the best pass catchers out of the backfield, that was usually playing from behind.........cut BACK on this.  I know their overall play count was down, but it was mind boggling how many times you'd see the Cards trailing for an entire game, but DJ catches maybe 3 passes.    It can't be hard to fix this for 2019, and if they do, he's a top 10 RB for sure, maybe even challenging for top 5 again if he can score enough times.  

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Posted (edited)

This year has to be his absolute floor, barring injury. Pretty astonishing, all things considered. I doubt I will be buying next season, since Im sure he will be more expensive than Im comfortable with since people will convince themselves positive regression is coming, even if there are minimal moves made by the team to expect it. But one could do worse than a guy who had everything go wrong this year and still finished top 10 at the position.

Edited by nromn
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Wouldn't mind him as my RB2 if you pair him with a high upside RB1.  Its rather shocking he couldn't hit 1K rushing yards this year with as many carries as he got, I understand the offense was dumpster fire but it kinda makes you wonder if he is more product of system ( BA offense ) vs his ability to create yards on his own. 

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7 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Wouldn't mind him as my RB2 if you pair him with a high upside RB1.  Its rather shocking he couldn't hit 1K rushing yards this year with as many carries as he got, I understand the offense was dumpster fire but it kinda makes you wonder if he is more product of system ( BA offense ) vs his ability to create yards on his own. 

 

x2.    I do wonder about the difference in talent among running backs and how much of their production has to do with a certain system.    An average running back can look great if his offensive line is creating big gaps to run through.    Gurley didn't look great in 2017 but now he looks like one of the most explosive backs in football.   Would someone like Dixon look good in the same system?    Williams looks like a top 10 back on KC.    Connor the same in Pitt.   And even Samuels looks like a decent on that team.    So I guess the question to me is if there really is such a huge gap in talent in the top 20 RBs?     Are there really that many who are on a different level?   Maybe Barkley.   I really don't know.  

 

 

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More than anybody else -- David Johnson's fantasy value is tied directly to what Arizona decides to do at HC/OC. I would imagine they go offensive oriented coach after the disaster that was Steve Wilks. If he gets a young innovative head coach -- that should at least help his YPC and catch output for PPR. That being said -- I thought he looked bad this year in general. Yes, I understand that the entire offense was garbage, but he did not look like the DJ of 2016. These kind of things happen. I will not draft him for what he did in 2016. If I do draft him, it will be because of pure volume. A lot of things need to work themselves out in the off-season, but he'll probably go as RB8-10 with feels too rich. 

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19 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

 I will not draft him for what he did in 2016.

 

nice said.

 

For me it depends on the price I have to pay. I don't think I'm willing to pay a Top10 pick for DJ even if they have a good off season. But with an offensive minded coach and some decent roster moves I'm glad to get im 12-16.

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I want to see who the Cards hire and what offseason moves they make, but I may consider DJ in my keeper league draft. If 2018 was his floor, then that’s pretty solid. I know he was the RB10 in my 1/2 PPR league, but if he has a repeat season, he will drop further down the rankings. Guys like Bell, Chubb, Michel, Guice, Jones, KC RB could very well pass him up. 

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On 1/4/2019 at 7:46 AM, Zak0221 said:

Wouldn't mind him as my RB2 if you pair him with a high upside RB1.  Its rather shocking he couldn't hit 1K rushing yards this year with as many carries as he got, I understand the offense was dumpster fire but it kinda makes you wonder if he is more product of system ( BA offense ) vs his ability to create yards on his own. 

 

You must have miss this classic graphic  

 

carry-chart_JOH174477_2018-reg-5_1538960

 

Not even Barry Sander in his prime could do anything with that. 

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What was that one great game after McCoy got fired? A mirage? A fluke? Or something they refused to scheme again due to additional coaching stupidity?

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1 hour ago, Proteus said:

What was that one great game after McCoy got fired? A mirage? A fluke? Or something they refused to scheme again due to additional coaching stupidity?

it was a game against KC. I could wheelchair my way to 30+ fantasy points against them......and I'm not even in a wheelchair:ph34r:

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Kind of concerned about who the Cardinals are going to hire as a DJ dynasty owner.

 

I'd just hire Freddie Kitchens and be done with it. He is a BA disciple and is proving his worth with Baker Mayfield and Cleveland right now. 

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arians is looking at the tampa job right now. looks like he maybe signed? what if he goes back to arz. nothing stopping him short of a contract with tampa????

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14 minutes ago, not an nfl scout said:

arians is looking at the tampa job right now. looks like he maybe signed? what if he goes back to arz. nothing stopping him short of a contract with tampa????

 

Arians needs a contender to come back to coaching.

 

I don't think Arizona will contend for a few years. Bruce left Arizona for a reason 

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roto had a spot on airans possibly being the front runner for tampa. that does sound interesting with evans, oj howard, godwin, and winston sitting there just waiting for someone to take ahold? i'm not sure about the rb situation? barber/jackwizz/ron jones III ???? could he go there? that might be a good fit?

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17 hours ago, not an nfl scout said:

roto had a spot on airans possibly being the front runner for tampa. that does sound interesting with evans, oj howard, godwin, and winston sitting there just waiting for someone to take ahold? i'm not sure about the rb situation? barber/jackwizz/ron jones III ???? could he go there? that might be a good fit?

Good questions but they have nothing to do with DJ thus don't belong here.

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On 1/5/2019 at 1:38 PM, Flyman75 said:

I want to see who the Cards hire and what offseason moves they make, but I may consider DJ in my keeper league draft. If 2018 was his floor, then that’s pretty solid. I know he was the RB10 in my 1/2 PPR league, but if he has a repeat season, he will drop further down the rankings. Guys like Bell, Chubb, Michel, Guice, Jones, KC RB could very well pass him up. 

 

Guice hasnt taken a snap in the NFL in his life.

 

That's some good ole fashioned lsu gumbo home cooking right there 

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36 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Guice hasnt taken a snap in the NFL in his life.

 

That's some good ole fashioned lsu gumbo home cooking right there 

 

Okay. I see you're already drunk for the NC game tonight. Lol. :D

 

I didn't say Guice was better than DJ or would definitely pass him up...and I am DEFINITELY not an LSU homer when it comes to the NFL or my fantasy teams. Ask me how many LSU guys I had on my rosters this year aside from Guice? Ask me how many I had last year...and the year before...and the year before. Lol. None. 

 

What I said is that Guice "could" pass him up IF Johnson has a repeat season...in other words, it's a possibility. In other words, 1380 totals yards, 50 catches, and 10 TDs may not be enough to be the RB10 next year in 1/2 PPR because there are some youngsters and Bell and the KC RB to take into account. I never said he (nor the others I listed) definitely would. In fact, it's also a possibility that the Cards get some things figured out, and DJ shoots up into the top 5 fantasy RBs. 

 

Good luck to your boys tonight. 

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Good questions but they have nothing to do with DJ thus don't belong here.

i was thinking that maybe arians could come back to arz.???? which would be huge for johnson? but it looks like he goes to tampa. and according to others on this post it seems there was more to arians leaving than just his health, apparently. just using arians to compare at johnson's value.

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On 1/4/2019 at 8:35 PM, GhostOfCap said:

More than anybody else -- David Johnson's fantasy value is tied directly to what Arizona decides to do at HC/OC.

This, but they seriously need to make some moves in FA and the draft.

Right now they have:

- one of the worst QBs in the NFL (with 9 draft mistakes in front of him, mind you)

- one of the weakest receiving corps in the NFL (least receiving yards in the NFL).
- one of the worst O-lines in the NFL (rated #32 by Pro Football Focus)

- even the field goals suck: #30 in field goal % (and obviously, with the worst offense, #32 in field goals made)


(To be fair, they weren't very lucky with the O-line (https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2018/12/5/18128028/arizona-cardinals-original-starting-offensive-line-is-gone-for-the-season):

Quote

- August 7th: Center A.Q. Shipley suffered a torn ACL
- November 13th: Right guard Justin Pugh suffered a torn ACL
- November 26th: Right tackle Andre Smith was released
- December 3rd: Left guard Mike Iupati suffered MCL damage to his knee
- December 5th: Left tackle D.J. Humphries suffered a set back to his injured knee
In addition to this, they also lost their primary backup offensive linemen (G/T John Wetzel, G Jeremy Vujnovich) to IR.

 

That's some painful stuff right there).

Anyways, if they upgrade the O-line in the draft, get some WRs in FA... that will make a lot of difference to DJ.
Right now, I'm not putting any price on him. If nothing changes, he might even be a 3rd rounder, but coach, FA and draft moves are going to make all the difference.

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51 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

Obviously by draft time we'll know who his coach is - this is a rare case where that will weigh heavily in his draft value.

 

We need to see who is eventually hired but DJ could be extremely undervalued in the draft. I don't see him being overvalued.

 

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He reminds me of Todd Gurley from 2016. Rookie QB who will likely improve next year, new coach, both on bad teams. I think he bounces back in a big way and will be a steal as a second rounder next year. 

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

This, but they seriously need to make some moves in FA and the draft.

Right now they have:

- one of the worst QBs in the NFL (with 9 draft mistakes in front of him, mind you)

- one of the weakest receiving corps in the NFL (least receiving yards in the NFL).
- one of the worst O-lines in the NFL (rated #32 by Pro Football Focus)

- even the field goals suck: #30 in field goal % (and obviously, with the worst offense, #32 in field goals made)


(To be fair, they weren't very lucky with the O-line (https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2018/12/5/18128028/arizona-cardinals-original-starting-offensive-line-is-gone-for-the-season):

 

That's some painful stuff right there).

Anyways, if they upgrade the O-line in the draft, get some WRs in FA... that will make a lot of difference to DJ.
Right now, I'm not putting any price on him. If nothing changes, he might even be a 3rd rounder, but coach, FA and draft moves are going to make all the difference.

 

If they were that devastated on the OL because of injuries, then there has to be some hope for him to have a better 2019 simply because you have to presume they'll have a healthier OL. If they lost four starting OL to injury, the fifth was cut, and two backups were lost to injury, then it's frankly amazing that DJ had nearly 1400 total yards and 10 TDs by season's end. 

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On 1/4/2019 at 2:13 AM, thebadferret said:

After his legendary 2016 performance (1239+16 rushing and 80-897+4 receiving) he missed the whole '17 season with a wrist injury, just to come back as a Top4 pick into his third year. Unfortunetly (for all the people drafting him) he had a down year - at least for his 2016 standard. He finished as the 10th best RB this season with a 940+7 rushing and a 50-446+3 receiving stat line.

 

Is it too much to hope that a new HC who will breathe some life into that offense, a FA WR or two, a healthy OL, progression by Rosen...that with all that, can Johnson shoot the middle between his epic 2016 season and his disappointing 2018 season? Can he produce 1761 yards, 15 TDs, and 65 receptions? If he can, that puts him in top 5 discussion in all formats. Even if we dial it back to 1500 yards, 12 TD, and 60 receptions, that's still top 8 discussion. 

 

But, as I've said before (maybe in the other DJ thread), a lot is riding on this coaching hire for Arizona when it comes to their lead back. 

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4 hours ago, akooreman180 said:

He reminds me of Todd Gurley from 2016. Rookie QB who will likely improve next year, new coach, both on bad teams. I think he bounces back in a big way and will be a steal as a second rounder next year. 

Don't you want to know who the coach is going to be before you make a claim like that?  lol.  Seems like you've already made up your mind on him before any changes are made.

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