pastorofmuppets2

Patrick Mahomes 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

 

 

 

 

wherein the QB whisperer found his perfect 10 - the Reid offense never looked so explosive; even with key components (Watkins/Hunt) missing for long stretches - side note -  the vid will remind you of just how remarkable Hunt was in this scheme.

 

back to 'Homie ... majority of us intrepid bare backers were handsomely rewarded with 'chips, as the likely 2018 MVP joined the ultra-exclusive 5,000/50 club ... not too shabby for a kid we all probably snagged in the double digit rounds (10,13,10 for me in my three leegs).

 

the arm strength, the mobility, the savvy ... the total command of arguably the leeg's best offense - backed by the full confidence of one of the most innovative minds to ever coach - a transcendent pairing, and methinks we are just scratching the surface - yeah, i expect a string of epic seasons, the surrounding cast/support is nothing short of lethal.

 

first QB off the board without question ... but how high will you reach?

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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I'm wondering how early Mahomes goes as well. Sadly, I won't be the one to reach. The QB position is going to be super deep next year. Granted, you're going to take a significant drop from a Mahomes to someone you wait on to grab with a late pick, but I'd rather stock up on RB's and WR's and grab a couple QB's later. I'll be targeting guys like Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen. 

 

Having said that, picking Mahomes in the 11 round in my draft was the best pick I've ever made. I'm sure most people including myself drafted him as their backup, but I actually started him week 1 and never looked back. I wonder what KC will do at the RB position. Perhaps they go after a RB early in the draft.

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He'll go in the 1st rd, adp probably settling between 7-12 by Aug...regardless of how one feels about taking a qb that early, he earned it.

 

Not sure why one would say it's a bad decision either, when he is definitely one of the few ff players that everyone does not want to face in 2019.

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47 minutes ago, psygolf said:

He'll go in the 1st rd, adp probably settling between 7-12 by Aug...regardless of how one feels about taking a qb that early, he earned it.

 

Not sure why one would say it's a bad decision either, when he is definitely one of the few ff players that everyone does not want to face in 2019.

 

 

I streamed QB all season and did extremely well. Taking a QB in the first rd makes no sense. You are better off grabbing his TE kelce early and taking lamar jackson  or baker wherever they land

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

 

 

 

wherein the QB whisperer found his perfect 10 - the Reid offense never looked so explosive; even with key components (Watkins/Hunt) missing for long stretches - side note -  the vid will remind you of just how remarkable Hunt was in this scheme.

 

back to 'Homie ... majority of us intrepid bare backers were handsomely rewarded with 'chips, as the likely 2018 MVP joined the ultra-exclusive 5,000/50 club ... not too shabby for a kid we all probably snagged in the double digit rounds (10,13,10 for me in my three leegs).

 

the arm strength, the mobility, the savvy ... the total command of arguably the leeg's best offense - backed by the full confidence of one of the most innovative minds to ever coach - a transcendent pairing, and methinks we are just scratching the surface - yeah, i expect a string of epic seasons, the surrounding cast/support is nothing short of lethal.

 

first QB off the board without question ... but how high will you reach?

 

 

The highest i have ever reached for a QB was Rodgers in a wraparound 3rd/4th rd and he crushed it that year. The point differential mahommes will give vs other QB's I can make up for by filling in my 2wr+2rb+flex slots with better players than my opponent betting on his QB beating me. 

Edited by dashoe

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Mahomes is gonna be the new Rodgers/Brees in their prime  wherein owners will draft him in the middle to end of the first round. The draft cost will be too high but that's the price you have to pay for a surefire set it and forget it player.

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22 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I streamed QB all season and did extremely well. Taking a QB in the first rd makes no sense. You are better off grabbing his TE kelce early and taking lamar jackson  or baker wherever they land

Conjecture 

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A very good ff owner can draft any position rd1, ANY position, and still still be in the mix to win any league.

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6 minutes ago, psygolf said:

A very good ff owner can draft any position rd1, ANY position, and still still be in the mix to win any league.

 

If you drafted a kicker in round 1 and still won I would just call that dumb luck.

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16 minutes ago, psygolf said:

A very good ff owner can draft any position rd1, ANY position, and still still be in the mix to win any league.

 

Hyperbole because you replace probability with your hubris

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40 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

The highest i have ever reached for a QB was Rodgers in a wraparound 3rd/4th rd and he crushed it that year. The point differential mahommes will give vs other QB's I can make up for by filling in my 2wr+2rb+flex slots with better players than my opponent betting on his QB beating me. 

 

The point differential Mahomes gives you (assuming he is the #1 QB next season) is minimized by the fact that in a 10-12 team league every team should have at least one good QB on their roster.

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3 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

The point differential Mahomes gives you (assuming he is the #1 QB next season) is minimized by the fact that in a 10-12 team league every team should have at least one good QB on their roster.

 

he gave the biggest statistical/points advantage of any of the positions .. wound up providing 7+ pts per game edge over the next QB (Ben in most leagues, iirc).

 

that's more than an advantage, that puts opposition at a legit handicap. 

 

would i reach in the first? prolly not ... i have never reached for a QB in all my years ... but if he makes it past mid second, and i'm on the bored? yeah, im'ma go. 

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1 minute ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

he gave the biggest statistical/points advantage of any of the positions .. wound up providing 7+ pts per game edge over the next QB (Ben in most leagues, iirc).

 

that's more than an advantage, that puts opposition at a legit handicap. 

 

would i reach in the first? prolly not ... i have never reached for a QB in all my years ... but if he makes it past mid second, and i'm on the bored? yeah, im'ma go. 

 

I lost in the championship to the guy who had Mahomes. He barely outscored my QB Mayfield.

 

Now his Ertz vs my Vance McDonald? That was a legit handicap.

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1 minute ago, Evincar said:

 

I lost in the championship to the guy who had Mahomes. He barely outscored my QB Mayfield.

 

Now his Ertz vs my Vance McDonald? That was a legit handicap.

 

so your 2018 season consisted entirely of one game?  nice.  

 

hey, i won two 'chips in '17 with Bortles as my starter in week 16 ... would i have gotten there riding him all year? no chance - Watson's injury put me on the stream, and i was very fortunate in my guesswork at other positions. 

 

your point is cute, but severely misses the bigger picture. 

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4 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

he gave the biggest statistical/points advantage of any of the positions .. wound up providing 7+ pts per game edge over the next QB (Ben in most leagues, iirc).

 

that's more than an advantage, that puts opposition at a legit handicap. 

 

would i reach in the first? prolly not ... i have never reached for a QB in all my years ... but if he makes it past mid second, and i'm on the bored? yeah, im'ma go. 

 

 

This seems to be a recurring theme every season with QB's who  had a previous great season. .  watson, rodgers, brees, brady. And the proponenents ususally say 2nd or 3rd  round and the smart guys usually say. . . WAIT and get a cheaper and just as productive QB.

I find every season I can get a late round or waiver QB that usually finishes in the top5 and my team is much stronger -->> examples would be  mahommes-wentz-watson-ryan-etc-etc and the list goes on

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This is a topic in which people will be all over the map. I'm of what may be the minority opinion...in that Mahomes is worth drafting highly.

 

If you're in a 2QB or Superflex league, pay top dollar (whether auction or snake). 

1QB auction, I still think he's worth a very high bid. 

Most people are in standard snake drafts. I believe he's worth a 1st round pick even there, depending on your draft slot. And IF he is there for you in the 2nd round, then I think he's easily worth taking. Here's why I believe all that...

 

The PPG advantage that Mahomes gives you over other QB's is huge.

**I checked across 6 different formats (personal CBS league, default CBS, personal Yahoo league, default ESPN, default Fantasy Pros, default Pro Football Reference).

Mahomes was between 3.88 to 6.34 PPG better than the #2 QB. That alone is a big advantage.

Mahomes was between 7.00 to 11.62 PPG better than the #8 QB. That's massive. And the #8 QB is not even the worse starter in a 12-man league.

If you go beyond the top 8, obviously the PPG difference grows even larger.

Many owners like streaming or rotating QB's. And you can get good points if you make the right decisions and get lucky. But you aren't getting the points Mahomes can get you...you are still being outscored by quite a lot. And that doesn't even take into account the blowup game ability that Mahomes has. 

 

You are not getting the PPG advantage that Mahomes has amongst other good QB's, from RB/WR's amongst other good RB/WR's. Now one can cherry-pick certain combos of players on both sides of the fence, to say that they come out ahead one way or the other. But I look at it this way...I feel that Mahomes is much less likely to bust in 2019, than a highly-ranked RB or WR. Will he throw 50 TD's again? The odds say no. He could certainly score less than he did in 2018...but still be way better than all or almost all other QB's. As for RB's busting though? Look at the top RB's drafted in 2018...

 

In the top 24 picks, these are the RB's who went in my 1 point PPR redraft Yahoo league (in order): Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Zeke, Kamara, Gordon, Saquon, Hunt, Fournette, CMC, D.Freeman, Howard, Cook. I'd say 6 of those 13 RB's were either outright busts or disappointments...7 if you count Hunt, who played well for 11 weeks but then had the suspension. Now it's true that the majority of busts were at the back-end of the 13...but then again at the front end, there was Bell (bust) and Johnson (disappointment). A player holding out all season like Bell did, obviously isn't going to happen every season, but the fact is that he was a bust. 

 

One other thought. Some feel QB is very deep for 2019. But could there be decline at the position? Some people believe if the Saints win it all, Brees could retire (I don't think so, as I think he stays one more season). Brady might already be in the start of his decline as the oldest QB in the league. Rivers is no spring chicken himself. What will happen with Ben amidst all the AB drama? Will yet another new offensive coordinator hurt Ryan? There are question marks at QB...

 

Overall, as mentioned at the top, I think Mahomes is worth a 1st round pick depending on your draft slot (and don't forget your league settings - the value for Mahomes goes even higher in leagues where passing TD's are worth 6 points and not 4, since he's throwing for more TD's than other QB's). And I certainly think he's worth taking over the RB's who you don't see as the absolute elite group (many people/rankings already think that Gurley, Saquon, CMC, Zeke, Kamara in various order, are the elite top 5 group). At the end of the day, it's your draft. Don't worry about picking Mahomes "too highly" because you're worried your league mates may laugh at or mock you for picking a QB too highly. If you believe he's going to have another big year, go with your gut. 

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5 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

I lost in the championship to the guy who had Mahomes. He barely outscored my QB Mayfield.

 

Now his Ertz vs my Vance McDonald? That was a legit handicap.

I beat the mahommes owner in the playoffs with lamar jackson in wk 15. . .:lol:

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2 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

so your 2018 season consisted entirely of one game?  nice.  

 

hey, i won two 'chips in '17 with Bortles as my starter in week 16 ... would i have gotten there riding him all year? no chance - Watson's injury put me on the stream, and i was very fortunate in my guesswork at other positions. 

 

your point is cute, but severely misses the bigger picture. 

 

But Mahomes still didnt provide that "handicap" advantage during Weeks 14-16. Yeah he obviously was a league winner because of his historic season and more importantly where he was drafted.

 

I do you think he loses some of his advantage by picking him early in 2019.

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I beat the mahommes owner in the playoffs with lamar jackson in wk 15. . .:lol:

 

amazing, because, ya know, everyone pro Mahomes here is saying "GUARANTEED 'CHIP ZOMGGG!!!1!1! #1 OVERALL FTW!!!1!1!"

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1 minute ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

amazing, because, ya know, everyone pro Mahomes here is saying "GUARANTEED 'CHIP ZOMGGG!!!1!1! #1 OVERALL FTW!!!1!1!"

 

 I'm sorry is there a reason why you are so agitated by my post?  Calm down Oscar no need to be a grouch on a discussion board. :lol:

 

The reason mahommes was a league winner for many teams was BECAUSE HE WAS A LATE ROUND/WAIVER pick. Those teams already had their wr's/rb's flex slots filled.  The question is will taking mahommes  1st round propel  a team to the title, i don't thinks so. 

As I stated this discussion happens every season a QB has a great year and most proponents usually say 2nd rd they reach and 3rd rd definitely.  Assuming a 1 QB league.  The probability is in your favor to fill in the 5 total slots that require wr/rb

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For every owner who ended up winning in the playoffs while facing Mahomes with a streamer, there were those who lost to him to while employing the streamer (or rotating) strategy. As an example in one of my leagues, someone rolled out Dak in the Week 15 semis...Dak scored 3.79 FP's and that owner's season was toast.

 

Mahomes did have a strong playoff run. I'm pulling these numbers from my Yahoo league, in which it is 6 points per TD pass:

Week 14: 39.33 FP's (2 TD passes - 1 INT - 377 pass yards - -3 rush yards)

Week 15: 28.50 FP's (2 TD passes - 0 INT - 243 pass yards - 3 rush yards)

Week 16: 41.50 FP's (3 TD passes - 0 INT - 273 pass yards - 33 rush yards)

 

A Mahomes team can beat or lose to another team, that has either a separate highly-drafted QB or a streamer. But Mahomes in 2018 was not the cause of any team losing in the fantasy playoffs, as he played well there.

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 I'm sorry is there a reason why you are so agitated by my post?  Calm down Oscar no need to be a grouch on a discussion board. :lol:

 

The reason mahommes was a league winner for many teams was BECAUSE HE WAS A LATE ROUND/WAIVER pick. Those teams already had their wr's/rb's flex slots filled.  The question is will taking mahommes  1st round propel  a team to the title, i don't thinks so. 

As I stated this discussion happens every season a QB has a great year and most proponents usually say 2nd rd they reach and 3rd rd definitely.  Assuming a 1 QB league.  The probability is in your favor to fill in the 5 total slots that require wr/rb

 

plz don't be so condescending ... i've been at this gig as long as any of you posting here.  i get it.  

 

see my previous posts ...since you seem to have not paid them any mind, lemme refresh. ..

 

1) i never reached for a QB

2) i will not take him in the first

3) mid to late second is where i would pull the trigger, provided he lasts that long.

 

if i score one of my top ranked RBs in rd one, then, yeah, i'll more than likely wrap with 'Homie.  

 

no one ever had as complete a first season as a starter. it's fact. all the tools are there in abundance.  so is the support. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Corleone said:

For every owner who ended up winning in the playoffs while facing Mahomes with a streamer, there were those who lost to him to while employing the streamer (or rotating) strategy. As an example in one of my leagues, someone rolled out Dak in the Week 15 semis...Dak scored 3.79 FP's and that owner's season was toast.

 

Mahomes did have a strong playoff run. I'm pulling these numbers from my Yahoo league, in which it is 6 points per TD pass:

Week 14: 39.33 FP's (2 TD passes - 1 INT - 377 pass yards - -3 rush yards)

Week 15: 28.50 FP's (2 TD passes - 0 INT - 243 pass yards - 3 rush yards)

Week 16: 41.50 FP's (3 TD passes - 0 INT - 273 pass yards - 33 rush yards)

 

A Mahomes team can beat or lose to another team, that has either a separate highly-drafted QB or a streamer. But Mahomes in 2018 was not the cause of any team losing in the fantasy playoffs, as he played well there.

 

 

 if u play QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-FLEX-K-DST which I believe is the ESPN standard format you generally won't lose because of your QB.

guys like henry emerging or AB torching a team or losing hunt-gurley-ware-gordon-conners and not getting the adequate repalcement killed u.

 

true drafted league winners to me were guys like Adams +edelman who gave u high floors every single week without let down.  Those are the type of guys i am looking to grab in the 1-3rd rds because i have to fill 5 slots  vs 1 QB slot. it's a probability and scarcity issue. QB is too deep to forgo those other positions

 

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Mahomes is probably a lock to only play 15 games next year as the Chiefs will likely be dominant once again and rest players Week 17.  They just barely missed the opportunity to do that this year but just like PManning in his prime, you drafted him high with the expectation that you are only getting 15 games out of him with the Colts likely having the bye/home field wrapped up before Week 17. 

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 if u play QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-FLEX-K-DST which I believe is the ESPN standard format you generally won't lose because of your QB.

guys like henry emerging or AB torching a team or losing hunt-gurley-ware-gordon-conners and not getting the adequate repalcement killed u.

 

true drafted league winners to me were guys like Adams +edelman who gave u high floors every single week without let down.  Those are the type of guys i am looking to grab in the 1-3rd rds because i have to fill 5 slots  vs 1 QB slot. it's a probability and scarcity issue. QB is too deep to forgo those other positions

 

 

and the counterpoint to that is all the schlubs who ate ish this year following that strategy with the likes of DJ/Bell/Howard/Collins/Ajayi/Drake/DT/Gronk/ARob/Freeman etcetcetc. 

 

you make it appear as if waiting on a QB and filling other slots is fait accompli to success, while ignoring that the terrain in those rounds is frought with trememdous peril.  

 

'Homie is the surest thing in the draft.  period.  

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