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Patrick Mahomes 2019 Outlook

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Main problem is a Chiefs defense that can't stop anything, and opponents will continue to eat the clock against him.  20 minutes time of possession will be a good week going forward.

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Seriously everyone complains about the littlest bump in the road. Last year through 4 games- 1865 yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs. This year through 6 games - 2104 yards, 14 TDs, 1 INT. Nearly identical fantasy scoring. He's still the same guy you spent a high pick on.

 

(And yes I know I didn't include his 2 rushing TDs from last year but I'm worried about his passing. The rushing TDs are hit and miss.)

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2 minutes ago, TheWeasel said:

Seriously everyone complains about the littlest bump in the road. Last year through 4 games- 1865 yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs. This year through 6 games - 2104 yards, 14 TDs, 1 INT. Nearly identical fantasy scoring. He's still the same guy you spent a high pick on.

I am in KC and have watched every game start to finish.  It cannot be overstated how bad this defense is, and it gets worse every week-- it's now worse than last year, and last year was an abomination.  Opposing teams now understand that and will simply run for 7 yards a carry.  Mahomes can't give you points if he's not on the field. 

Add to that the facts that he has a bad ankle, the offensive line is in shambles, and there is zero threat of a run game, and the precious time he is on the field, more often than not you're looking at a three and out.  Mahomes is a fantastic talent, no doubt about it, but there is only so much he can overcome.

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1 hour ago, Bastardo! said:

I am in KC and have watched every game start to finish.  It cannot be overstated how bad this defense is, and it gets worse every week-- it's now worse than last year, and last year was an abomination.  Opposing teams now understand that and will simply run for 7 yards a carry.  Mahomes can't give you points if he's not on the field. 

Add to that the facts that he has a bad ankle, the offensive line is in shambles, and there is zero threat of a run game, and the precious time he is on the field, more often than not you're looking at a three and out.  Mahomes is a fantastic talent, no doubt about it, but there is only so much he can overcome.

I agree the defense is bad, like really bad, but Mahomes is still on the field plenty. The offensice line is another issue all together. So far KC has had the ball 30 more minutes this year than last year and in their 2 losses they won the time of possession with 37 and 39 minutes respectively. So I'm fine with a bad defense, the offense just needs to complete their drives.

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1 hour ago, Bastardo! said:

I am in KC and have watched every game start to finish.  It cannot be overstated how bad this defense is, and it gets worse every week-- it's now worse than last year, and last year was an abomination.  Opposing teams now understand that and will simply run for 7 yards a carry.  Mahomes can't give you points if he's not on the field. 

Add to that the facts that he has a bad ankle, the offensive line is in shambles, and there is zero threat of a run game, and the precious time he is on the field, more often than not you're looking at a three and out.  Mahomes is a fantastic talent, no doubt about it, but there is only so much he can overcome.

there is only one thing to overcome..fatness of Reids brain..they are sitting @ 4-2...they are ok right now..but when I watch Chiefs I have a feeling Freddie Kitchens is calling plays...another fat dude..it looked good when Darrell Williams was on the field

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1 hour ago, Bastardo! said:

Main problem is a Chiefs defense that can't stop anything, and opponents will continue to eat the clock against him.  20 minutes time of possession will be a good week going forward.

 

Well, when you only run it 10 times a game, there's no way you're gonna win time of possession.  Each incomplete pass stops the clock.

Chiefs should go to more of a balanced attack.  They are so one dimensional now.  It has worked for Mahomes so far so that's not totally fair to criticize, but Mahomes is hurt and the OL is having trouble protecting.  It just makes a lot of sense.  Their rbs (aside from Damien) have healthy ypc averages.  That would likely go down if they ran more, but not to the point where it's not effective.  

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I get the feeling that a lot of this worry surrounding the Chiefs offense is gonna go away when Erik Fisher gets back.

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah gotta love all the folks coming out with their 'see, regression' and 'always fade QBs' spicy takes.

The ankle splits are obvious and there are a myriad of other issues all being pretty clear too.

Fading qb’s is a spicy take?  It’s pretty standard strategy

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah gotta love all the folks coming out with their 'see, regression' and 'always fade QBs' spicy takes.

The ankle splits are obvious and there are a myriad of other issues all being pretty clear too.

 

Well, the regression take has been proven to be true statistically.  The thinking is that a huge year typically has the stars aligned for the player (health, game flow, lucky plays, etc.) and this usually doesn't get duplicated.

I'm hard pressed to think of a player who had a record year and topped it the following year.  Mahomes didn't break any NFL records, but he broke a ton of Chiefs records last year.  So the thinking is not without merit.

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11 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

I'm hard pressed to think of a player who had a record year and topped it the following year.

"Topped" is kind of tricky.

Rice set a bunch of Niners records in 86 and then scored 7 more TDs in 87 with less yardage.

Favre set a bunch of Packers records in 95 and then threw one more TD in 96.

Randy Moss's rookie year was put of control obviously and then he had 11 more catches and 100 yards, but lost 6 TDs.

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

"Topped" is kind of tricky.

 

I said "topped" only because a player can technically only do better or regress.  But your examples of comparable performance are fair.  I still think it's sort of rare.  Almost always you see a lesser year after a huge one, and that's just common sense that it would happen.

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1 minute ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I said "topped" only because a player can technically only do better or regress.  But your examples of comparable performance are fair.  I still think it's sort of rare.  Almost always you see a lesser year after a huge one, and that's just common sense that it would happen.

Of course.  Records are usually there for a reason, they're really friggin hard to break.

That said, there are a ton more examples of guys that had career years and were still not "fades" so to speak.  For example no one was fading the guy Mahomes is most often compared to, Aaron Rodgers, the year after he threw 45 TDs because he threw 39.

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25 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Of course.  Records are usually there for a reason, they're really friggin hard to break.

That said, there are a ton more examples of guys that had career years and were still not "fades" so to speak.  For example no one was fading the guy Mahomes is most often compared to, Aaron Rodgers, the year after he threw 45 TDs because he threw 39.

 

I don't disagree.  Mahomes is not a fade, even though he looks to be regressing.  I guess my point is that people saying he would regress were correct...he is and that should have been expected. 

But there is a difference between regressing and still being worth the pick and being a huge value to your team, and regressing to a "disappointing" or "bust" level.  He's a fade if you think he will regress that far.  People who thought that are wrong (so far).

Just like any other player with a career year...expecting a repeat is foolish, but to think he'll still be damn good is reasonable.  Mahomes can regress and still be the overall QB1, and that would make him well worth the pick.

Edited by Brownsfan74
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Just now, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I don't disagree.  Mahomes is not a fade, even though he looks to be regressing.  I guess my point is that people saying he would regress were correct...he is and that should have been expected. 

But there is a difference between regressing and still being worth the pick and being a huge value to your team, and regressing to a "disappointing" or "bust" level.  He's a fade if you think he will regress that far.

Just like any other player with a career year...expecting a repeat is foolish, but to think he'll still be damn good is reasonable.  Mahomes can regress and still be the overall QB1, and that would make him well worth the pick.

Agree 100%.

 

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Weekly - 350.6 yards and 2.3 TDs. I'll take that regression all year long and keep trying to trade for him.

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2 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Well, the regression take has been proven to be true statistically.  The thinking is that a huge year typically has the stars aligned for the player (health, game flow, lucky plays, etc.) and this usually doesn't get duplicated.

I'm hard pressed to think of a player who had a record year and topped it the following year.  Mahomes didn't break any NFL records, but he broke a ton of Chiefs records last year.  So the thinking is not without merit.

I remember back in 2007, I used to hang out on the Footballguys message board.  This was Drew Brees's second year in New Orleans, and one of the super-smart Footballguys writers (I forget which one) kept making the case all season long in the Brees thread that his 2006 season had been a total outlier and that he must "regress to the mean."  I ridiculed the guy all season as Brees put up monster game after monster game, and, well, we know how it all turned out . . .

 Capture11.JPG.8d024625811d956cb9906763348e3000.JPG

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm

 

Edited by Bastardo!

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Overall, I am pretty happy with his performance this season. However, don't look for things to get better this week, tough match up @denver on a short week

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Injury is obviously affecting him. I think the only legitimate concern here is not that he isn't a top 3 QB, it's not the clear QB1 and thus underperforming his ADP. 

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On 10/15/2019 at 4:25 PM, BGDDYKWL said:

Injury is obviously affecting him. I think the only legitimate concern here is not that he isn't a top 3 QB, it's not the clear QB1 and thus underperforming his ADP. 

I just checked the depth chart and if anything were to happen to him Matt Moore is the starter, YIKES!

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On 10/15/2019 at 3:25 PM, BGDDYKWL said:

Injury is obviously affecting him. I think the only legitimate concern here is not that he isn't a top 3 QB, it's not the clear QB1 and thus underperforming his ADP. 

#1 overall player is underperforming, what a time to be alive lol 

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Just now, mmcc1029 said:

#1 overall player is underperforming, what a time to be alive lol 

Not sure where he's the #1 overall player, but I can't exactly fault somebody for saying he's underperforming right now.  Over the last 3 weeks, his accuracy is nowhere near what it normally is.  He's barely been above 50% in all 3 games, which is bad, especially for somebody like Mahomes.  One of those games he failed to throw a TD in, and he followed that up with a 1 TD game.

Am I freaking out trying to unload him?  No, not at all, but anybody who just keeps going along blindly thinking he's still performing as expected is in denial.  It should be interesting to see what he does tonight, especially against a really good pass defense.

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2 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Not sure where he's the #1 overall player, but I can't exactly fault somebody for saying he's underperforming right now.  Over the last 3 weeks, his accuracy is nowhere near what it normally is.  He's barely been above 50% in all 3 games, which is bad, especially for somebody like Mahomes.  One of those games he failed to throw a TD in, and he followed that up with a 1 TD game.

Am I freaking out trying to unload him?  No, not at all, but anybody who just keeps going along blindly thinking he's still performing as expected is in denial.  It should be interesting to see what he does tonight, especially against a really good pass defense.

Based on last year when he outscored Barkley, CMC, and Gurley. I think the next QB after him was Matt Ryan. That was probably the expectation this year. His ankle seems to be an issue keeping him in the pocket and taking sacks he wouldn't normally take. He didn't run a ton vertically before, but his ability to escape pressure is limited now. And we all know how deadly he is even when he's throwing on the run. It just knocks him down to "human" I guess. Still better than most QBs even at whatever percentage he is right now. I just hope his ankle doesn't worsen. That would send ripples all throughout Fantasyland.

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11 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Not sure where he's the #1 overall player, but I can't exactly fault somebody for saying he's underperforming right now.  Over the last 3 weeks, his accuracy is nowhere near what it normally is.  He's barely been above 50% in all 3 games, which is bad, especially for somebody like Mahomes.  One of those games he failed to throw a TD in, and he followed that up with a 1 TD game.

Am I freaking out trying to unload him?  No, not at all, but anybody who just keeps going along blindly thinking he's still performing as expected is in denial.  It should be interesting to see what he does tonight, especially against a really good pass defense.

He is #1 in my league but we have some custom bonuses and long play things so that may be why, and I understand he's had a few bad games. It just seemed funny to me that after 2 "subpar" games the narrative has gotten so gloomy. 

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He will still always get his no matter who he is playing, but has to be definite concern about his health tonight. DEN has finally been getting after the QB and the KC line has not been very good...toss in a loud homefield and you have to temper expectations tonight somewhat.

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