pastorofmuppets2

Patrick Mahomes 2019 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Mahomes is probably a lock to only play 15 games next year as the Chiefs will likely be dominant once again and rest players Week 17.  They just barely missed the opportunity to do that this year but just like PManning in his prime, you drafted him high with the expectation that you are only getting 15 games out of him with the Colts likely having the bye/home field wrapped up before Week 17. 

Most leagues finish in week 16. If your league continues until week 17, you probably have bigger problems than just your QB.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 if u play QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-FLEX-K-DST which I believe is the ESPN standard format you generally won't lose because of your QB.

guys like henry emerging or AB torching a team or losing hunt-gurley-ware-gordon-conners and not getting the adequate repalcement killed u.

 

true drafted league winners to me were guys like Adams +edelman who gave u high floors every single week without let down.  Those are the type of guys i am looking to grab in the 1-3rd rds because i have to fill 5 slots  vs 1 QB slot. it's a probability and scarcity issue. QB is too deep to forgo those other positions

 

 

It all depends, even in standard position formats. The guy with Dak would have won with a respectable game at QB position. 

 

On my end, I faced Mahomes in the Week 16 Finals over in Yahoo, with one extra WR spot thrown into the settings you mentioned. The Mahomes owner had a great beginning of the draft. His first 4 picks were: Kamara, Julio, Mixon, Thielen. All hits. But in Week 16, this is how they did...

 

Mixon - 9.80 FP's (7.53 off from his projected total) - 78 total yards - 2 catches  - 0 TD

Julio - 12.80 FP's (9.98 off from his projected total) - 4 catches - 28 yards - 1 TD

Thielen - 14.30 FP's (4.33 off from his projected total) - 5 catches - 80 yards - 0 TD

Kamara - 27.50 FP's (7.04 over his projected total) - 105 total yards - 4 catches - 2 TD

 

3 of his top 4 picks were mediocre in the Finals. The foursome finished a total of 14.80 points off their projection, even with Kamara's big game. 

But Mahomes got 41.50 and he thus beat me by 3.70 points. 

Edited by Corleone

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10 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

and the counterpoint to that is all the schlubs who ate ish this year following that strategy with the likes of DJ/Bell/Howard/Collins/Ajayi/Drake/DT/Gronk/ARob/Freeman etcetcetc. 

 

you make it appear as if waiting on a QB and filling other slots is fait accompli to success, while ignoring that the terrain in those rounds is frought with trememdous peril.  

 

'Homie is the surest thing in the draft.  period.  

 

Actually you are not making a relevant counterpoint because you have to fill 4+1 starting  rb/wr slots with a diminishing talent pool vs 1 QB slot where

Like I said this is the same argument made every year by those who talk about taking a Qb in rounds 1-3. Think if it this way before you take your QB in rd 2 there are already any part of 12 starting  rb/wr gone.  and u have to fill in 3+1.  The point falloff from QB1-12 is minimal vs the fall off of wr or rb 12-24 and 24-26 is massive .

 

 

Thats where u guys make the mistake with your comps u look at Qb1-12 but forget that u are only starting 1 QB  whereas you are starting 4+1 rb/wr so one of your wr2/rb2  may not even be in the top 24 of their position by the time you draft them but your QB will be in the top 12 of their position with a narrower point differential.

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6 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

It all depends, even in standard position formats. The guy with Dak would have won with a respectable game at QB position. 

 

On my end, I faced Mahomes in the Week 16 Finals over in Yahoo, with one extra WR spot thrown into the settings you mentioned. The Mahomes owner had a great beginning of the draft. His first 4 picks were: Kamara, Julio, Mixon, Thielen. All hits. But in Week 16, this is how they did...

 

Mixon - 9.80 FP's (7.53 off from his projected total) - 78 total yards - 2 catches  - 0 TD

Julio - 12.80 FP's (9.98 off from his projected total) - 4 catches - 28 yards - 1 TD

Thielen - 14.30 FP's (4.33 off from his projected total) - 5 catches - 80 yards - 0 TD

Kamara - 27.50 FP's (7.04 over his projected total) - 105 total yards - 4 catches - 2 TD

 

3 of his top 4 picks were mediocre in the Finals. The foursome finished a total of 14.80 points off their projection, even with Kamara's big game. 

But Mahomes got 41.50 and he thus beat me by 3.70 points. 

 

And the mahommes owner would have never had that team of julio-thielen-kamara-mixon to get him to the title game and beat u if he took his QB in the first 2 rounds. . . that's the power of late round QB. . .:lol:

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Obvious regression candidate. If his ADP is anywhere inside the first two rounds, I won't touch him. 

 

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

And the mahommes owner would have never had that team of julio-thielen-kamara-mixon to get him to the title game and beat u if he took his QB in the first 2 rounds. . . that's the power of late round QB. . .:lol:

 

But not every late-round QB is going to perform remotely as well as Mahomes. The PPG advantage he provides has already been mentioned. If he had simply an above-average late-round QB, he would have lost in the Finals. Mahomes is more than the usual above-average late-round QB...he was the proverbial unicorn. 

 

If he hypothetically did take Mahomes in the first 2 rounds + another lower-ranked WR in place of Julio, and had the same team otherwise, he would have been both more likely to make the Finals AND win in the Finals. Take one of the examples you just mentioned...Edelman (an 11th round pick and the 22nd overall WR). Or if discounting Edelman (who wasn't taken into Round 11 because of his suspension), you can put in a guy like Kenny Golladay instead (also an 11th round pick and the 20th overall WR). And that's not even taking into account a potential good RB/WR drafted when he would have taken a QB in a later round.

 

Overall, one could end up winning a league in a number of different ways. I'm not saying anyone's way is wrong. What I am saying is that I think Mahomes is worthy of taking with a high pick, because he is THAT good (and IMO, a sure thing barring injury).  

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2 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

Obvious regression candidate. If his ADP is anywhere inside the first two rounds, I won't touch him. 

 

 

wowwwwww! predicting a guy to regress ftom 5,000/50, huh?  don't go toooo far out on that limb now, ya hear?

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Patrick's season has def earned him a spot in my heart, I wish I could keep him everywhere but only have 1 league I can--and will.

I have not kept a QB in a long time in this league (16 team with 6pt passing TDs) as Vick and then early Luck were the last times.

Our keeps slot into our first 3 RDs, so I have very little prob paying up with what amounts to the 3rd Rd of 16 teamer...

 

Even with built in regression it offers profit, esp considering the advantages he gives over the next best QBs, plus it's not like he's done growing as a passer/qb--it certainly does not guarantee to equate to fantasy points, it prob won't but it's exciting to think about too.

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14 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

wowwwwww! predicting a guy to regress ftom 5,000/50, huh?  don't go toooo far out on that limb now, ya hear?

So far all I've seen in this thread is people talking about how big of an advantage he is and where his ADP is going to be next year with no consideration of regression. You're one who's going to chase this year's production at next year's premium price. Have fun with that. 

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3 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

So far all I've seen in this thread is people talking about how big of an advantage he is and where his ADP is going to be next year with no consideration of regression. You're one who's going to chase this year's production at next year's premium price. Have fun with that. 

 

fair enuff ... but i don't think for one f'n second that i'm chasing - i believe i'll be replicating. 

 

second round, after i secure my stud RB, is my price for poker ... if he's scooped by then, so be it - i'll live. 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Most leagues finish in week 16. If your league continues until week 17, you probably have bigger problems than just your QB.

 

Week 17 is not that big of deal if you know how to prepare for it.  My league included it, then stopped including it then went back to including it.  Has not really dramatically changed a lot as there are always moves to be made to correct the rested players headache.

 

My point is still very valid for the long standing leagues that DO include week 17 and its one that should be considered if you play in a Week 17 league and want Mahomes.  He is likely to not play 16 games bc of how good the Chiefs will be next couple of years. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Week 17 is not that big of deal if you know how to prepare for it.  My league included it, then stopped including it then went back to including it.  Has not really dramatically changed a lot as there are always moves to be made to correct the rested players headache.

 

My point is still very valid for the long standing leagues that DO include week 17 and its one that should be considered if you play in a Week 17 league and want Mahomes.  He is likely to not play 16 games bc of how good the Chiefs will be next couple of years. 

The chargers are just as good, if not better, than the Chiefs. There's going to be constant competition for the division. The possibility of only getting 15 weeks is a distant thought in my mind. We got 16 weeks this year in his historic season; it's not going to get any better than that moving forward. Better than that meaning the outlook for the chiefs isn't any better than what we saw this year

Edited by smetana34

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16 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

But not every late-round QB is going to perform remotely as well as Mahomes. The PPG advantage he provides has already been mentioned. If he had simply an above-average late-round QB, he would have lost in the Finals. Mahomes is more than the usual above-average late-round QB...he was the proverbial unicorn. 

 

If he hypothetically did take Mahomes in the first 2 rounds + another lower-ranked WR in place of Julio, and had the same team otherwise, he would have been both more likely to make the Finals AND win in the Finals. Take one of the examples you just mentioned...Edelman (an 11th round pick and the 22nd overall WR). Or if discounting Edelman (who wasn't taken into Round 11 because of his suspension), you can put in a guy like Kenny Golladay instead (also an 11th round pick and the 20th overall WR). And that's not even taking into account a potential good RB/WR drafted when he would have taken a QB in a later round.

 

Overall, one could end up winning a league in a number of different ways. I'm not saying anyone's way is wrong. What I am saying is that I think Mahomes is worthy of taking with a high pick, because he is THAT good (and IMO, a sure thing barring injury).  

 

1. Every year there is a late round QB or 2 that bursts into the top5

2. if u took  mahommes  in rd 1-2 you would not get close to that same team of julio-mixon-kamara-thielen; u assume it's replacing 1 player but it's not you are missing an entire tier of talent each successive round in terms of securing a talented rb/wr as other teams compete for those players until they grab their qb's in the 5th-7th. So essentially u have to find ur diamond in the rough wr/rb  in rd 5-7 when the competition is less. The dropoff from 12-24 is massive for rb/wr and even worse  from 12-36 and it's considerably larger than the 6pt advantage ur securing at QB.  In general you are not going to find the guaranteed  ready to go wr1/rb1  for week 1 past the 3rd rd; u may get them during the course of the season but not when your drafting before wk1.

3.  i'm not saying mahommes is not worth a 1st 2nd rd pick or u can't win by taking him there but what i am saying is there is a real opportunity cost taking a QB early  instead of  filling 4+1 slots of production to lock in QB1 slot. It's really just a numbers game of opportunity cost and scarcity when u draft. 

 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

1. Every year there is a late round QB or 2 that bursts into the top5

2. if u took  mahommes  in rd 1-2 you would not get close to that same team of julio-mixon-kamara-thielen; u assume it's replacing 1 player but it's not you are missing an entire tier of talent each successive round in terms of securing a talented rb/wr as other teams compete for those players until they grab their qb's in the 5th-7th. So essentially u have to find ur diamond in the rough wr/rb  in rd 5-7 when the competition is less. The dropoff from 12-24 is massive for rb/wr and even worse  from 12-36 and it's considerably larger than the 6pt advantage ur securing at QB.  In general you are not going to find the guaranteed  ready to go wr1/rb1  for week 1 past the 3rd rd; u may get them during the course of the season but not when your drafting before wk1.

3.  i'm not saying mahommes is not worth a 1st 2nd rd pick or u can't win by taking him there but what i am saying is there is a real opportunity cost taking a QB early  instead of  filling 4+1 slots of production to lock in QB1 slot. It's really just a numbers game of opportunity cost and scarcity when u draft. 

 

 

We could discuss/debate the pros and cons all day, but I guess at the end of the day, this is why I am not a fan of 1QB leagues unless the league is at least 16 teams.

 

When you have a player with one of the best seasons in NFL history (and I think everyone should be able to agree that that's what Mahomes' 2018 season was), who is in position to be able to replicate (or at least come close to/approach) that success in 2019, and the format is set up in a way where said player isn't worthy in many people's opinions of a 1st OR 2nd round pick, then that's a failing of the format. 

Edited by Corleone

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I've personally never been a huge fan of taking a QB in the top 5 rounds. However, it has gotten quite annoying how people act like superstar QBs make less of a difference than other positions. Here is the advantage provided by Mahomes compared to other positions:

 

QB1 (Mahomes): 26.1

QB2: -4

QB12: -8.4

 

RB1: 19.6

RB2: -1.2

RB12: -7.9

RB24: -11.1

 

WR1: 15.4

WR2: -1.7

WR12: -5.1

WR24: -7.4

 

RB24 and WR24 is far better comparison wise to QB as there is only one QB required per team in most formats. However, let's break it down either way. Mahomes had by far the biggest position advantage every week as he performed far better than the next closest QB to him. An entire touchdown better in fact. The drop off at RB is huge which is why they go a lot higher as once you go through the crop you get pretty bad options. However, Mahomes has a significant advantage over the entire WR position. His advantage was far superior to any WR no matter how you are going to slice it.

 

So why exactly can't he go in the first round? The argument that every year you can draft a late round QB is ridiculous. 3 of the top 12 RBs this season had an ADP outside of the top 100. 9 of the top 24 RBs had an ADP outside the top 24. That's 38% of the starters going outside the top 90. While 50% of QBs went outside the top 90, acting like only QBs are found late is inaccurate. So while it is easier to find good QBs late they won't provide close to the advantage of Mahomes nor is it impossible to find other positions late.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I've personally never been a huge fan of taking a QB in the top 5 rounds. However, it has gotten quite annoying how people act like superstar QBs make less of a difference than other positions. Here is the advantage provided by Mahomes compared to other positions:

 

QB1 (Mahomes): 26.1

QB2: -4

QB12: -8.4

 

RB1: 19.6

RB2: -1.2

RB12: -7.9

RB24: -11.1

 

WR1: 15.4

WR2: -1.7

WR12: -5.1

WR24: -7.4

 

RB24 and WR24 is far better comparison wise to QB as there is only one QB required per team in most formats. However, let's break it down either way. Mahomes had by far the biggest position advantage every week as he performed far better than the next closest QB to him. An entire touchdown better in fact. The drop off at RB is huge which is why they go a lot higher as once you go through the crop you get pretty bad options. However, Mahomes has a significant advantage over the entire WR position. His advantage was far superior to any WR no matter how you are going to slice it.

 

So why exactly can't he go in the first round? The argument that every year you can draft a late round QB is ridiculous. 3 of the top 12 RBs this season had an ADP outside of the top 100. 9 of the top 24 RBs had an ADP outside the top 24. That's 38% of the starters going outside the top 90. While 50% of QBs went outside the top 90, acting like only QBs are found late is inaccurate. So while it is easier to find good QBs late they won't provide close to the advantage of Mahomes nor is it impossible to find other positions late.

 

how dare you and @Corleone bring logic and facts and tangible reasoning up in here!!1!!!1!

 

didn't you get the memo, fellas?

 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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That's good stuff @Gohawks

Yeah the diff between him and other QBs has to be nearly (or more) impactful as having Kelce/Ertz/Kittle at TE?

Side note, Patrick was named AP 1st Team All-Pro with a huge % of votes, incredibly likely he's MVP...

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Really enjoyed owning him this year.  I think what made him such a stud was obviously his on-field performance but more importantly, the fact that most of us got him in the double digit rounds.

 

There's no such discount for this coming year.  But if you can get this weekly positional difference maker on your roster, why wouldn't you want that?  There are certainly going to be people that draft Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle in rounds 2 and 3.  So why not Mahomes at the same price?  The difference of course depends on league settings, and the fact that you only start 1 QB and there are plenty of serviceable QBs, while the chasm between great vs average TEs is much bigger.

 

I think I would consider Mahomes in the early 3rd.  As others have mentioned, any pick can bust.  A Jarvis Landry or Derrick Henry at the top of the 3rd could just as easily bust as Mahomes.  The key would be to figure out who has the bigger chance of busting of course.  This kid looks generational to me and I'm a believer. 

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

This seems to be a recurring theme every season with QB's who  had a previous great season. .  watson, rodgers, brees, brady. And the proponenents ususally say 2nd or 3rd  round and the smart guys usually say. . . WAIT and get a cheaper and just as productive QB.

I find every season I can get a late round or waiver QB that usually finishes in the top5 and my team is much stronger -->> examples would be  mahommes-wentz-watson-ryan-etc-etc and the list goes on

 

I usually agree and I typically shy away from whoever last season's top guy was, though I view Mahomes a bit differently. I'm not about to look up any numbers, but I don't recall any QB having that big of an edge over the 2nd place QB, and the #1 thing I'm looking for in my draft is guys that'll be highly ranked in weeks 14-16 and I view Mahomes as one of the surest bets to be in that spot next year. Granted I do auction drafts so I'll still be able to grab a first rounder (or two) in addition to Mahomes if I want to, not sure how I'd plan if I were doing snake drafts (thank god I don't do snake drafts anymore though).

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41 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

That's good stuff @Gohawks

Yeah the diff between him and other QBs has to be nearly (or more) impactful as having Kelce/Ertz/Kittle at TE?

Side note, Patrick was named AP 1st Team All-Pro with a huge % of votes, incredibly likely he's MVP...

TE1: 12.0

TE2: -1.3

TE12: -6.8

 

Which is why this is extremely laughable. People won't touch Mahomes yet will take a TE in the first two rounds. Yet you only need one of each and the advantage Mahomes provides guys like Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz don't even come close to. There's really no reason to waste an early pick on a TE in all honesty. People think these TEs are worth so much because everyone else is averaging under 6 points but even the top TEs aren't scoring that much in the first place relative to other positions. So the deviation from the mean isn't as big as people make it out to be.

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21 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I've personally never been a huge fan of taking a QB in the top 5 rounds. However, it has gotten quite annoying how people act like superstar QBs make less of a difference than other positions. Here is the advantage provided by Mahomes compared to other positions:

 

QB1 (Mahomes): 26.1

QB2: -4

QB12: -8.4

 

RB1: 19.6

RB2: -1.2

RB12: -7.9

RB24: -11.1

 

WR1: 15.4

WR2: -1.7

WR12: -5.1

WR24: -7.4

 

RB24 and WR24 is far better comparison wise to QB as there is only one QB required per team in most formats. However, let's break it down either way. Mahomes had by far the biggest position advantage every week as he performed far better than the next closest QB to him. An entire touchdown better in fact. The drop off at RB is huge which is why they go a lot higher as once you go through the crop you get pretty bad options. However, Mahomes has a significant advantage over the entire WR position. His advantage was far superior to any WR no matter how you are going to slice it.

 

So why exactly can't he go in the first round? The argument that every year you can draft a late round QB is ridiculous. 3 of the top 12 RBs this season had an ADP outside of the top 100. 9 of the top 24 RBs had an ADP outside the top 24. That's 38% of the starters going outside the top 90. While 50% of QBs went outside the top 90, acting like only QBs are found late is inaccurate. So while it is easier to find good QBs late they won't provide close to the advantage of Mahomes nor is it impossible to find other positions late.

 

 

The fundamental flaw of your argument is you have to fill 1 slot for QB in a single QB league and u need to fill 4+1  starting position slots  with rb/wr and this does not include bench slots where people do stashes and cuffs and lottery tickets thus further depleting the talent pool to fill those positions.   Each successive round of  a draft the wr/rb position depletes faster than the any other position. 

Rarely do you see guys scramble to fill a lost QB but every season people scramble weekly to fill in rb/wr slots over the course of a season and the talent isnt always on the waiver it may be on the bench which other players can't compete to acquire.

It's a number game

 

 Every year we debate on this forum about which round to take the #1 QB and it won't change because every player has their particular draft philosophy

 

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4 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

If you drafted a kicker in round 1 and still won I would just call that dumb luck.

So you never roll snake eyes in the first rd...ok.

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27 minutes ago, diverz4 said:

 

I usually agree and I typically shy away from whoever last season's top guy was, though I view Mahomes a bit differently. I'm not about to look up any numbers, but I don't recall any QB having that big of an edge over the 2nd place QB, and the #1 thing I'm looking for in my draft is guys that'll be highly ranked in weeks 14-16 and I view Mahomes as one of the surest bets to be in that spot next year. Granted I do auction drafts so I'll still be able to grab a first rounder (or two) in addition to Mahomes if I want to, not sure how I'd plan if I were doing snake drafts (thank god I don't do snake drafts anymore though).

 

yeah I stopped snake drafts this past season, so I don't have the hindrance of which round to select a player vs where someone else may take him.  Auction allows me to focus on budgeting value for all my slots with the players i actually want vs what falls to me. 

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Confidence because you replace probability with your past results

*fixed.

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Just now, psygolf said:

*fixed.

isnt this when somene ususally chimes in with the "let me join your league if u draft a kicker in the first" line:lol:

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