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Patrick Mahomes 2019 Outlook

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On 6/26/2019 at 11:52 AM, CooL said:

Yeah yeah, "don't draft a QB early" is the mantra that even my mother understands now about fantasy football.  And if you're in leagues with pretty smart competitors, that's going to be even more pronounced.  But I guarantee you that in every league, SOMEBODY is going to end up owning Mahomes.  And that somebody is going to get a QB who will have a decent year, might even again be great.  And I'm sure somebody in your league might get a huge monster year out of a Jameis Winston in the 12th round and look like a genius.

There is a reason why there are always "safe" QBs.  Mahomes of course only has one year under his belt, but he's right up there and deserves to be chosen early.  For those who want to wait, yeah, take your chances with a Dak Prescott, Trubisky, Phil Rivers, etc.  Might turn out well.  But it just could turn out mediocre.

I'm not going to take Mahomes in the 3rd, but if he's there in the 4th, I'll be over that.  But surely somebody in every league is going to be taking him in the 3rd or you'll even probably find some that will take him in the late 2nd.

 

Adapting to the trends and conventional drafting methods happens every year, and every year those trends change.  In my opinion, I'd rather be the first one to grab the best player at a given position than take the 5th best player at a position and allow the same person who just took the best RB and/or WR to then go and take the best QB because that's what conventional wisdom tells you to do.

Now every strategy is dependent on your league.  If you're in a 1 QB 10 Team league, then QB should be significantly devalued.  If you're in a bigger league or one that plays 2QB or one that has limitations on add/drop (streaming) then QB is undervalued in my opinion.  That said, I'd much rather have a team led by Saquan Barkley, Antonio Brown, and Patrick Mahomes than really any alternative combination of first 3 picks.

But as CooL said, in most leagues SOMEONE will be taking him in the 2nd or 3rd at the latest.

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Tyreek Hill news instantly vaults Mahomes up at least 5 draft spots in the ADP, whether we like it or not...

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12 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Adapting to the trends and conventional drafting methods happens every year, and every year those trends change.  In my opinion, I'd rather be the first one to grab the best player at a given position than take the 5th best player at a position and allow the same person who just took the best RB and/or WR to then go and take the best QB because that's what conventional wisdom tells you to do.

Now every strategy is dependent on your league.  If you're in a 1 QB 10 Team league, then QB should be significantly devalued.  If you're in a bigger league or one that plays 2QB or one that has limitations on add/drop (streaming) then QB is undervalued in my opinion.  That said, I'd much rather have a team led by Saquan Barkley, Antonio Brown, and Patrick Mahomes than really any alternative combination of first 3 picks.

But as CooL said, in most leagues SOMEONE will be taking him in the 2nd or 3rd at the latest.

 

He won't be sniffing anything close to the 3rd round. 

At least there is no doubt in my mind he will be selected no later than late 1st early 2nd in my 1QB 12-man ppr league.

 

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Chiefs have a decently tough schedule just sifting through it, but having Hill back is going to make people reach on Mahomes really early. Chargers x2 Broncos x2 Vikings, packers, patriots, Colts, Jags are imo going to be stronger defenses. I would be shocked if Mahomes has more then 35tds.

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Posted (edited)

Hill getting back probably eliminated my chances of getting Mahomes in our auction draft. Someone will chase last year and overpay. But that's a good thing probably, as it will sooner or later hinder their ability to out-bid me for players I want more. And QB looks so deep this year. 

Edited by bomont

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Yea I'm a qb guy but I'm ok letting Mahomes go. I had him last year and he crushed faces and while it was fun, I don't see him posting those numbers again.. He will put up a big season but I'm not sure it'll be to last year's level. Although I'd be totally happy with luck, Watson, Ryan, Brees etc.. Many good QBs to grab this year 

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2 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I'm not sure it'll be to last year's level.

I'm sure. It won't. Course doesn't have to be for him to be QB1 again, but it's really unlikely.

 

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2 minutes ago, bomont said:

I'm sure. It won't. Course doesn't have to be for him to be QB1 again, but it's really unlikely.

 

That's what I meant actually, I'm sure he won't. He will be a qb1 absolutely but I'll be happy with other qbs. 

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On 7/19/2019 at 12:00 PM, CORTEz said:

Tyreek Hill news instantly vaults Mahomes up at least 5 draft spots in the ADP, whether we like it or not...

I'll like it plenty if that happens. While Mahomes is obviously a beast, I won't be taking a QB in the range where he's going. If the Hill news results in Mahomes' ADP spiking and pushing a handful of players back a spot, I will 100% welcome that. 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

That's what I meant actually, I'm sure he won't. He will be a qb1 absolutely but I'll be happy with other qbs. 

My bad, when I said QB1 I meant the #1 QB overall. Which he won't be most likely. But yeah "a" QB1 easily. It's not uncommon for the #1 QB to drop more than expected the next year, but if the prices don't get crazy, I'd be more than happy to take my chances with this guy. I just think it's almost certain at least 1 guy in my league will see visions of sugar plum TDs (like 50ish) dancing in his head and overpay. 

Edited by bomont

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33 minutes ago, bomont said:

My bad, when I said QB1 I meant the #1 QB overall. Which he won't be most likely. But yeah "a" QB1 easily. It's not uncommon for the #1 QB to drop more than expected the next year, but if the prices don't get crazy, I'd be more than happy to take my chances with this guy. I just think it's almost certain at least 1 guy in my league will see visions of sugar plum TDs (like 50ish) dancing in his head and overpay. 

I think he can still be the actual qb1 for the season but not to the same tune as last year, #1 but just overall a regression, not by a ton but I don't see a repeat. Sure I'd love to take him again if I could but these days I haven't been as apt to taking a qb1 in 1st or 2nd round anymore. 

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I would love to get him in the 36-40 range but he always gets taken a few spots prior to that

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Where do you guys see Mahomes going in 2QB / Superflex leagues? 

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1 minute ago, PVNOLE said:

Where do you guys see Mahomes going in 2QB / Superflex leagues? 

I've done 3 so far and he hasnt made it past pick 4. 

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I had this dude in every league last year. I have the first pick overall in a 10 team superflex league.

so tempted to grab him.

anyone take him high like that and how did your teams turn out?

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4 minutes ago, montgrove said:

I had this dude in every league last year. I have the first pick overall in a 10 team superflex league.

so tempted to grab him.

anyone take him high like that and how did your teams turn out?

 

do it. 

snag Tyreek and Carson on the 2/3 turn. 

GO!

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34 minutes ago, montgrove said:

I had this dude in every league last year. I have the first pick overall in a 10 team superflex league.

so tempted to grab him.

anyone take him high like that and how did your teams turn out?

 

In a superflex league it makes sense.

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13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Any benefit to Mahomes with the Shady signing? 

Another weapon on offense. I’ll take it. 

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I went Barkley, Hill, Mahomes, in my ten team league with first pick. Got Michel round 4, Locket round 5, Hunter Henry Round 6.

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11 hours ago, mortman212 said:

I went Barkley, Hill, Mahomes, in my ten team league with first pick. Got Michel round 4, Locket round 5, Hunter Henry Round 6.

What about rounds 7-16???

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50 minutes ago, redlegsfan said:

17 overall to high in a 6 pt per TD pass league?

 

1 QB start

 

Yes even in 1QB start its to early. QB is so deep this season. Someone may reach for him earlier then that though. An owner went Hill/Maowns at the 12/13 turn in my 6pt passing TD league. I do find it interesting if you grab a Maowns/Kelce or Hill in 6pt early though as that combo can completely win you a week when they go off though its not optimal value wise.

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