DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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18 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Where are we ranking derrick henry on the list of fantasy RBS? I've seen him as low as 22 on alot of lists. No higher than 15 on the best. I just cant imagine that if the titans actually commit to him that he finishes outside of the top 15. Double digit touch downs, big play guy, durable. I just feel like he has to be a better pick than guys like dalvin cook or freeman. Or am I wrong?

I have him at 18 as of now. I believe he will finish higher then 18. I do see a top 10 finish for him.

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1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

I have him at 18 as of now. I believe he will finish higher then 18. I do see a top 10 finish for him.

 

 

Do you mind listing all 17 RBs you have preranked ahead of him?

I've never sat down and ranked out RB 1-whatever but I believe Henry will be a top 10 back and I struggle to come up with 7 that I think can out do him come seasons end in PPR and standard formats.

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In no particular order

1) saquon

2) zeke

3) gurely

4) CMC

5) Kamara

6) Gordan

7) Bell

8] connor

9) mixon

Those are the guys that I think have earned the argument to be drafted ahead of henry. Not saying they dont have their own warts but everyone on that list has produced a very good season atleast once and recently. I would put henry in a group with chubb,  cook and damien William's. They all seem to have the talent but havent done it before. 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

In no particular order

1) saquon

2) zeke

3) gurely

4) CMC

5) Kamara

6) Gordan

7) Bell

8] connor

9) mixon

Those are the guys that I think have earned the argument to be drafted ahead of henry. Not saying they dont have their own warts but everyone on that list has produced a very good season atleast once and recently. I would put henry in a group with chubb,  cook and damien William's. They all seem to have the talent but havent done it before. 

 

 

 

 

It's not a bad list, 1-5 is pretty solid.

 

6-10 I think could fluctuate some. Gordon is great but his knees are a real issue. Joe Mixon is good too but has had his own durability issues. Bell could be Top 5 if the NYJ OLine is better this year. I think Dalvin Cook will be better than Mixon, Conner, and Gordon.

 

I'd put Bell 6, Henry 7, Cook 8, Conner 9, Gordon 10, Mixon 11

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I think I should of added fournette to the same category of derrick henry as well

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12 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I think I should of added fournette to the same category of derrick henry as well

Fournette can't even carry Henry's jock strap

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13 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Fournette can't even carry Henry's jock strap

 

Yanno what your right. Screw em

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13 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

I think I should of added fournette to the same category of derrick henry as well

 

Fournette is an enigma. Lots of question marks about his commitment to football but he is gonna have loads of carries if he can stay healthy. I'd put him at 12 but he could move up if he can host it all together.

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14 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

I think I should of added fournette to the same category of derrick henry as well

 

like DHC mentions above, fournette can not only be on this list, but he can actually move considerably higher if he 1) stays healthy, and 2) doesn't have any emotional issues (he needs to keep his rage focused, using it only when he has the ball). if yeldon goes, i doubt alfred blue will have much of a role, and we'll see fournette (when healthy) as a three-down back. foles only helps fournette by opening the offense.

 

16 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

6-10 I think could fluctuate some. Gordon is great but his knees are a real issue. Joe Mixon is good too but has had his own durability issues. Bell could be Top 5 if the NYJ OLine is better this year. I think Dalvin Cook will be better than Mixon, Conner, and Gordon.

 

does leveon bell need an offensive line for success? he's always had one, so maybe we don't know the answer. might have more to do with the offense gelling / QB play, though if sam doesn't have time to throw a screen all is lost.

 

i'm a big dalvin cook fan, but his health is almost as questionable / risky as fournette's, as is chris carson's and devonta freeman's, both of whom could enter that RB 6-12 if range if they're playing 16 games. carson still doesn't get the respect he's earned. fun RB to watch. lindsay too. throw in other lower-ranked but talented/opportune question marks (lindsay, guice, marlon mack), add gurley's and melvin gordon's physical woes / shorter seasons, and we might see these RB12-24 candidates move into the RB6-12 range. just sayin.

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4 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

like DHC mentions above, fournette can not only be on this list, but he can actually move considerably higher if he 1) stays healthy, and 2) doesn't have any emotional issues (he needs to keep his rage focused, using it only when he has the ball). if yeldon goes, i doubt alfred blue will have much of a role, and we'll see fournette (when healthy) as a three-down back. foles only helps fournette by opening the offense.

 

 

does leveon bell need an offensive line for success? he's always had one, so maybe we don't know the answer. might have more to do with the offense gelling / QB play, though if sam doesn't have time to throw a screen all is lost.

 

i'm a big dalvin cook fan, but his health is almost as questionable / risky as fournette's, as is chris carson's and devonta freeman's, both of whom could enter that RB 6-12 if range if they're playing 16 games. carson still doesn't get the respect he's earned. fun RB to watch. lindsay too. throw in other lower-ranked but talented/opportune question marks (lindsay, guice, marlon mack), add gurley's and melvin gordon's physical woes / shorter seasons, and we might see these RB12-24 candidates move into the RB6-12 range. just sayin.

 

 

 

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Very good points. Age and injury could change this list up quite a bit

Of course we didn't even mention Mark Ingram who could finish top 10 and David Johnson who is a phenomenal talent who could have a bounce back year. It's gonna be interesting for everyone to pick who they think will finish where.

 

4 RBs that I think have a TON of opportunities in 2019 is:

 

1. Derrick Henry - Titans want to build the offense around him. He is a tank and can handle 300+ carries if called upon, I think he gets as many reps as he can handle this season and I think he has a great season with that Oline adding Saffold to Lewan and Conklin with the draft left to go-to solidify it more Henry is just gonna chew up yards.

 

2. Dalvin Cook - 2nd year back from acl injury a lot of guys report that is when they feel most like their old selves again. Minnesota only has Roc Thomas behind Cook now that they let Latavius Murray go. Maybe they draft a RB later in the draft but nobody to seriously threaten Cooks workload. I also think Cook will get as many carries as he tells the coach he can handle. He is explosive and I love his ability to rip off a 60 yard run or huge chunk gains. He should have tons of touches 

 

3. Leonard Fournette - they have actuay shipped off Carlos Hyde and the Yeldon so jags are all in on fournette, they only added Alfred blue and Benny Cunningham. They may draft a RB late but Fournette is another RB who should only leave the field when he says he is tired. Alfred blue is strictly a breather back for Leonard and a downgrade on Yeldon and Hyde.

 

4. David Johnson - bad taste in people's mouth have them rethinking drafting DJ but I say think again. This is a guy who before his wrist injury had visions of a 1000 receiving and 1000 rushing yard campaign . He is still that same level talent. Kingsbury was brought in specifically to return DJ to what he was and to revamp the whole offense. That's enough hype for me to buy in on DJ being in the lineup more often than almost any other RB in the league with how much he will split out wide as a receiver in addition to his RB duties his useage numbers could and should skyrocket of Kingsbury stays true to his word.

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25 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 Kingsbury was brought in specifically to return DJ to what he was and to revamp the whole offense. That's enough hype for me to buy in on DJ being in the lineup more often than almost any other RB in the league with how much he will split out wide as a receiver in addition to his RB duties his useage numbers could and should skyrocket of Kingsbury stays true to his word.

 

I didnt know kingsbury was known for being a big RB production guy. I always thought his schtick was throwing the ball alot and losing 65 to 58. I couldnt even tell you one RB he had in college. Is he really gonna make DJ a star again?

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I didnt know kingsbury was known for being a big RB production guy. I always thought his schtick was throwing the ball alot and losing 65 to 58. I couldnt even tell you one RB he had in college. Is he really gonna make DJ a star again?

https://www.azcardinals.com/news/david-johnson-will-be-used-creatively-in-kliff-kingsbury-s-offense

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Nice read but  ya have to take the word of a guy who didnt produce a 1000 yard rusher in his last 3 years at Texas tech. I hope it's not just lip service. Getting DJ and henry late would be a nice RB tandem then.

 

I guess the train of thought is DJ is an excellent receiver for kingsbury to play with in addition to his heavy rushing workload. PPR gold.

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They talked a lot about using DJ creatively last year, too, after Leftwich came over.  Things did get better, but it was still a far cry from Arians.  Not holding my breath.  They need like 5 new offensive linemen first.

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

They talked a lot about using DJ creatively last year, too, after Leftwich came over.  Things did get better, but it was still a far cry from Arians.  Not holding my breath.  They need like 5 new offensive linemen first.

entirely true, yes, but maybe "creatively" meant taking painting classes, or guitar lessons? considering the depth chart, i imagine that when viewing things "creatively" this season we'll be seeing david johnson throwing passes.

12 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

PPR gold.

if washington, or the giants / chargers / patriots end up trading for josh rosen, which qb alchemist will be creating this gold? brett hundley? if josh rosen stays on the cardinals, i'm afraid we'll see more of what we saw last year, and i'm still in pain from that experience. with so many positions in need on this team, is there a chance we see the cardinals tank as they shift into rebuild mode?

i think your post above is spot-on, and i'm translating a "ton of opportunities" into playoff contender fantasy roster: 1. derrick henry, 2. cook, 3. fournette, 4. DJ.  thing is, if you have three of these low ADP talents on your team (rounds 2-3 let's say), and all three perform up to their abilities, and play all 16 games, that would be an unstoppable fantasy team (assuming there's a WR1 drafted in the first round). in auction, at least if we drafted now, it's entirely possible to nab all four of these RBs ($20-40 each?), if the auction swings in a certain way. but out of these guys, i think derrick henry is the only one i trust: i'm skeptical about cook's health, skeptical of fournette's health, and i'm afraid of the cardinal's offense. last season i thought DJ was offense-proof (like barkley has proven to be, like lev bell might prove to be), and being way wrong on DJ undermined my success. of course it depends on who's available when drafting, but taking henry in round 2 seems less risky to me than taking any of the other three, even though at season's end any of those other three could be pushing the top RBs for that RB5 ranking.

is it me, or does it seem like this year---especially this year---success will be based more on luck than on "draft skill", and that the luck centers more on RB than usual? will that guy who drafts 2 WRs and then leonard fournette, devonta freeman, and chris carson win the league by a landslide? will the person that makes the right guess between mckinnon and tevin coleman rock the league? will shady be outstanding or will he get hurt and leave every saying, i can't believe frank gore is still so solid, still ending at RB12 though he was undrafted? does bell succumb to the jets' curse? will cook and david johnson end at RB4 and RB5 with truthers all saying i told you so? mark ingram is so solid, and positioned to in a run-first offense, so will he be the hindsight hero, or will he get suspended for PEDS and gus edwards will be the standard scoring RB6?

maybe this year seems especially equivocal to me because it's only april 3rd...

775b10488530bf8d0482d6361a53c817.jpg

 

 

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Posted (edited)

It might just be because I'm a novice fantasy guy but I feel like most league winners are more lucky than good. So this year is like any other to me lol. 

 

But it's very early. Theres still like 17 pre season ACL tears that need to happen and qb battles blah blah. Eventually it will become less crazy looking.

Edited by Stonej14

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Posted (edited)

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away...

 

Farewell, Jack Conklin, former starting RT for the late-2018 version of Derrick Henry.  You shall be missed.

 

(who knows, maybe he sticks around after all)

Edited by BMcP

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7 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away...

 

Farewell, Jack Conklin, former starting RT for the late-2018 version of Derrick Henry.  You shall be missed.

 

(who knows, maybe he sticks around after all)

 

injury history makes financial sense, but decrease in playability plays a part:

" His PFF grade of 66.8 wasn’t terrible, but there has been a steady decline in his scores over the past 3 seasons (80.6 in 2016 and 71.9 in 2017). "

also, as you note, not picking up conklin's 5th year doesn't mean he's definitely out.

" Conklin and the team could work out an extension before the season begins, or simply re-sign him at the end of the 2019 season if he bounces back. "

https://titansized.com/2019/05/01/why-the-titans-declined-jack-conklins-option/

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15 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away...

 

Farewell, Jack Conklin, former starting RT for the late-2018 version of Derrick Henry.  You shall be missed.

 

(who knows, maybe he sticks around after all)

 

Not picking up the 5th year option means Jack is playing for his next contract.

He hasn't earned the money for the 5th year option so it's a smart move by tennessee. If he comes out and plays good then the Titans can offer whatever they think is fair but he will still be at RT for Henrys impressive upcoming fantasy season.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

injury history makes financial sense, but decrease in playability plays a part:

" His PFF grade of 66.8 wasn’t terrible, but there has been a steady decline in his scores over the past 3 seasons (80.6 in 2016 and 71.9 in 2017). "

also, as you note, not picking up conklin's 5th year doesn't mean he's definitely out.

" Conklin and the team could work out an extension before the season begins, or simply re-sign him at the end of the 2019 season if he bounces back. "

https://titansized.com/2019/05/01/why-the-titans-declined-jack-conklins-option/

Dang, I didn’t realize his play had dropped off that dramatically over the past two years.  I guess it was a no-brainer to pass on his option.  I hope that trend doesn’t continue into 2019, for the sake of both Henry and Mariota.

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49 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Dang, I didn’t realize his play had dropped off that dramatically over the past two years.  I guess it was a no-brainer to pass on his option.  I hope that trend doesn’t continue into 2019, for the sake of both Henry and Mariota.

 

Its up to Conklin. If he can return to his former self he can earn a nice contract.

Not the worst situation to be in if he can avoid injury.

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On 4/2/2019 at 6:42 PM, Stonej14 said:

 

Nice read but  ya have to take the word of a guy who didnt produce a 1000 yard rusher in his last 3 years at Texas tech. I hope it's not just lip service. Getting DJ and henry late would be a nice RB tandem then.

 

These are two guys I'm all over this year. DJ/Henry/Mixon

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On 5/2/2019 at 5:03 PM, dmb3684 said:

 

These are two guys I'm all over this year. DJ/Henry/Mixon

 

You listed 3 guys not 2.

It's ok to be wrong. I thought I was wrong once but it turns out I was mistaken.

😉

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