DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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34 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Lol, the stat is the stat. Sure, it took Elliot less games. Should we ponder for a moment what Henrys #s may have looked like if he was inserted as a starter day 1 and fed the football over 20 times a game like Zeke?

My post was generally supporting your stat.  I'm a big Henry fan this year (predicted he will lead the league in rushing in the bold prediction thread).

 

My remark targeting you was intended to be tongue-in-cheek.  I'm pretty sure everyone in this forum knows about your affinity towards Henry.  While the stat is the stat, it's not uncommon for RB's with fewer carries per game to have a higher ypc due to a variety of factors (more fresh, less predictable usage, etc.).  Similarly, Henry's TD's could be inflated if he was used disproportionately as a goal line back (I'm not going to research this, but it wouldn't surprise me).  Again, that's not to say your stat isn't meaningful.  I think it is, although maybe it shouldn't be taken at face value.

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1 hour ago, WEIL3R said:

My post was generally supporting your stat.  I'm a big Henry fan this year (predicted he will lead the league in rushing in the bold prediction thread).

 

What is Henry's ADP. I love him too but I'm starting to fade.

Even if he leads the league in rushing and has 12tds hes still not on the elite level like zeke or saquon or kamara in half ppr leagues and its disturbing me. 

I kno comparing henry to them isnt fair but henry at his ceiling just still isnt that high.

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13 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

What is Henry's ADP. I love him too but I'm starting to fade.

Even if he leads the league in rushing and has 12tds hes still not on the elite level like zeke or saquon or kamara in half ppr leagues and its disturbing me. 

I kno comparing henry to them isnt fair but henry at his ceiling just still isnt that high.

 

I think you're implying he won't ever catch a pass and that's a problem, but I don't think that's true. Just actually being on the football field gives you a chance to catch passes and he did catch a few last year. 

 

Man, I just wanna believe that Meat head Vrabel has learned that you don't need to operate with a terrible 3rd down back to be successful. He's very stupid, so we'll see, but it definitely looked like he was learning as a coach more and more down the stretch. 

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22 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

What is Henry's ADP. I love him too but I'm starting to fade.

Even if he leads the league in rushing and has 12tds hes still not on the elite level like zeke or saquon or kamara in half ppr leagues and its disturbing me. 

I kno comparing henry to them isnt fair but henry at his ceiling just still isnt that high.

Right now his ADP is around 25 in standard and 30 in 0.5 PPR.  I could see that moving up a little (no more than half a round) by mid-to-late August.

 

I would be surprised if Henry didn't catch at least 25 balls (more likely 35) this season.  If he's the work horse he will be on the field more and be involved in the passing game to some degree.  So if you add in a couple more TD's from the receptions and 250-300 yards, then you are looking at a high scoring RB.  So his ceiling is still quite high.

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32 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I think you're implying he won't ever catch a pass and that's a problem, but I don't think that's true. Just actually being on the football field gives you a chance to catch passes and he did catch a few last year. 

 

Man, I just wanna believe that Meat head Vrabel has learned that you don't need to operate with a terrible 3rd down back to be successful. He's very stupid, so we'll see, but it definitely looked like he was learning as a coach more and more down the stretch. 

 

Dion is a good player.

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40 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I think you're implying he won't ever catch a pass and that's a problem, but I don't think that's true. Just actually being on the football field gives you a chance to catch passes and he did catch a few last year

 

33 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

Right now his ADP is around 25 in standard and 30 in 0.5 PPR.  I could see that moving up a little (no more than half a round) by mid-to-late August.

 

I would be surprised if Henry didn't catch at least 25 balls (more likely 35) this season.  If he's the work horse he will be on the field more and be involved in the passing game to some degree.  So if you add in a couple more TD's from the receptions and 250-300 yards, then you are looking at a high scoring RB.  So his ceiling is still quite high.

 

Oh no I believe he will catch balls. To me his ceiling is something like the following

1500 rush yards-15tds  30catches 250 yards (2018 he had 15 catches for 99 yards)

In half ppr that's 280 pts.

In a down year last year Zeke had 292 pts and finished as the RB 5. (Stats from Fantasy pros)

I dont think this is Henry's absolute apex ceiling, he could have something like 1800 yards and 26 TDs like Shaun Alexander but I think I gave him very very favorable numbers and he still doesnt break top 5 on half ppr.

James connor and melvin gordon were RBs 6 and 7 they had 250 pts but missed 3 games and were averaging 20 pts per game. They surely would of broke 280 pts. Cook and fournette have the talent to score like elite backs just not the health, KC rb will score a ton, kerryon looks like a stud and will certainly catch alot of passes, lev bell didnt play last year and DJ will surely have a better season than last year because he surely cant do worse. Joe mixon missed 2 games and has been rumored to be used more heavily this year.

Mack, michel, and Carson are all on better offenses usually leads to more fantasy points 

 

Just saying Rb8 might be Henry's best possible outcome but he will probably finish somewhere closer to rb15. But could be worse much worse. 

 

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Dion is a good player.

 

He wasn't last year. Maybe he is better playing a supplemental role to Henry as the workhorse back.

 

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54 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

 

Oh no I believe he will catch balls. To me his ceiling is something like the following

1500 rush yards-15tds  30catches 250 yards (2018 he had 15 catches for 99 yards)

In half ppr that's 280 pts.

In a down year last year Zeke had 292 pts and finished as the RB 5. (Stats from Fantasy pros)

I dont think this is Henry's absolute apex ceiling, he could have something like 1800 yards and 26 TDs like Shaun Alexander but I think I gave him very very favorable numbers and he still doesnt break top 5 on half ppr.

James connor and melvin gordon were RBs 6 and 7 they had 250 pts but missed 3 games and were averaging 20 pts per game. They surely would of broke 280 pts. Cook and fournette have the talent to score like elite backs just not the health, KC rb will score a ton, kerryon looks like a stud and will certainly catch alot of passes, lev bell didnt play last year and DJ will surely have a better season than last year because he surely cant do worse. Joe mixon missed 2 games and has been rumored to be used more heavily this year.

Mack, michel, and Carson are all on better offenses usually leads to more fantasy points 

 

Just saying Rb8 might be Henry's best possible outcome but he will probably finish somewhere closer to rb15. But could be worse much worse. 

 

 

I think Henry will finish somewhere in the middle.

 

Even I am skeptical about Henry doing what Shaun Alexander did, 1,800 yds and 26 TDs is absurd.

 

However, Henry was hit before the line of scrimmage more than almost any other player in the NFL and at the same time led the league in yards after contact last season. What does this mean you may ask? Well, it means that for a RB who could use a little push from the Oline to maximize his running style was not getting any and despite this stat he led the league in yards gained after contact, meaning he is keeping his forward momentum moving and breaking tackles even before getting back to the line of scrimmage. Much different than a lot of the holes opened by other teams like KC or DAL or SD or Rams. Henry still had a ypc of 4.9 last season.

 

Vrabel and John Robinson know this stat and they know what Henry does once he gets a little momentum built up so they made some key moves this off-season to help with that. Jack Conklin is a pro bowl caliber RT but has been underperforming recently. Titans declined his 5th year option making him a free agent after this season. I think this motivates Conklin to want to have a Pro Bowl caliber season this year so he can sign himself a huge contract after this season. Then Tennessee went and signed Pro Bowl Guard Roger Saffold from the LA Rams. Saffold came in to his press conference and said he loved watching Henry run and wants to help him get up over 6 yards per carry and he knows he was brought in to help keep Henry from getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. I think 6 ypc would be amazing but for arguments sake I'd set it at 5.5 for this season. Taylor Lewan is a 3 time pro bowler at LT and 1 of the best in the league. Titans have excellent depth with Dennis Kelly able to play both tackle spots and drafting another guard in the draft. Should be a much better OLine this year.

 

The Titans s OLine started last year September - November 314 rush attempts for 1,226 yards and 7 TDs. Average of 3.9 yards per attempt.

 

In December when Lewan and Conklin were back the Titans OLine had 142 attempts for 801 yards and 8 TDs for an average of 5.64 yards per attempt

 

Now they have upgraded LG dramatically with Saffold. Perennial Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan, motivated jack Conklin at RT, Been Jones at C, and maybe Dennis Kelly or the rookie at RG. Henry to the left is going to become a common theme this season.

 

If Titans can come out and play all season like they did last December then Henry could reach high end RB1 numbers

 

If Henry gets to 300 rushes for 5.5 ypc that would equal 1,650yds, he scored 12 on the ground last season this year I think he can get to 16.

 

I also think around 36 catches for 300 yards and 2 TDs is well within Henrys grasp.

That would be a total of 321 .5 PPR fantasy points and would be 339 total fantasy points in full PPR.

 

Question is, how cheap do you think you can get him in order to maximize your profit when he exxxplodes this year? 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

If Titans can come out and play all season like they did last December then Henry could reach high end RB1 numbers

 

If Henry gets to 300 rushes for 5.5 ypc that would equal 1,650yds, he scored 12 on the ground last season this year I think he can get to 16.

 

I also think around 36 catches for 300 yards and 2 TDs is well within Henrys grasp.

That would be a total of 321 .5 PPR fantasy points and would be 339 total fantasy points in full

 

Wow i thought i was high on henry with 1500 and 15tds lol

Probably shouldnt give him 2 rec. TDs hes only had 4 receiving TDs since his freshman year of college (0 in his heisman year). I think 1 receiving td would be generous. 

Well thanks for talking me off the ceiling, officially back on the hype train. I like that he is in a contract year too. Idk why but those RBs always perform on contract years.

 

Edited by Stonej14

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As a prior Henry owner in a PPR league I am not buying the hype. This team has been too good for too long at being inept for a variety of reasons and I'm more than a little skeptical that suddenly it all comes together. I don't buy the Eddie George horse whisperer bit mattering either. Anything is possible and he might prove me wrong, but I'll let someone else take a chance. My RB2 will be elsewhere.

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I dunno how i haven't posted here yet but he's my favorite player in 2019.   I feel as though a light went on last season and he's rolling with confidence from that finish.   They hopefully have their tackles solidified and healthy now, and Rodger Saffold > Quinton Spain, so the line is better.   I will get flak for this but I think Tannehill is a great move.   Mariota's hurt, a lot, and now a guy with a ton of starting experience comes in that won't Gabbert away games.   New options in the pass game help as well.  He's lined up to score a ton of TD's and get a ton of carries.   

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13 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I dunno how i haven't posted here yet but he's my favorite player in 2019.   I feel as though a light went on last season and he's rolling with confidence from that finish.   They hopefully have their tackles solidified and healthy now, and Rodger Saffold > Quinton Spain, so the line is better.   I will get flak for this but I think Tannehill is a great move.   Mariota's hurt, a lot, and now a guy with a ton of starting experience comes in that won't Gabbert away games.   New options in the pass game help as well.  He's lined up to score a ton of TD's and get a ton of carries.   

I think more people will agree with you than you think about tannehill>mariota

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“What are the prerequisites for a stud running back? Fifteen-plus touches per week with consistent carries at the goal line is a good start,” he wrote. “Henry is being aimed for at least that role, if not something even more involved as the Titans try to build on his late-2018 success. Henry’s missed one game in five years (three in the pros, two at Alabama) and has the Titans offense in the palm of his hand. He has top-12 upside.”

 

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/20/cbs-sports-lists-titans-rb-derrick-henry-as-a-potential-fantasy-football-breakout-player/amp/

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In addition to teammates Corey Davis and Dion Lewis, Derrick Henry has landed in CBS Sports’ Top 150 Fantasy Football Players for 2019. 

The placement feels about right for Henry, who has arguably been the most productive back in the NFL during the fantasy playoffsover the past two seasons.

The last two December sample sizes were enough for the network’s Heath Cummings to place Henry at No. 40 for 2019.  Cummings’ reason for Henry’s rankings is simple, as he states, “I expect the Titans to pound the rock in 2019. Henry should be a workhorse back in an offense built to run.”

 

A preseason ranking of 40 seems a bit low for Henry, as many sources have him as a potential bargain for 2019.  It is very reasonable to predict that Henry will outperform other backs picked near him in fantasy drafts due his touchdown potential and the team’s desire to stick with the run.

 

The Titans’ offense is simply better when it can effectively run the ball.  Marcus Mariota is at his best out of play action formations, the offensive line has very talented run blockers, and it helps the Titans hit big pass plays.  As a result, it makes sense for the Titans to utilize Henry as much as possible to give the offense the best chance to consistently succeed.

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/07/titans-rb-derrick-henry-ranks-no-40-on-cbs-top-150-fantasy-players-for-2019/amp/

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Posted (edited)

One player we can expect to become more versatile in the upcoming 2019 season is running back Derrick Henry.

While 2018 was a record-breaking year filled with personal bests for the former Alabama rusher, success on the run isn’t all we should be expecting to see out of him moving forward.

 

Not much will be known about the full extent of Arthur Smith’s offense until the season starts up, but in open practices, Henry’s been putting in a good bit of work on the screen game.

 

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/16/expect-to-see-more-versatile-titans-rb-derrick-henry-in-2019/

 

henry getting a good bit of work in the screen game, eh?

 

interesting.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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This dude will kill it on someone’s else team this year. I’m not taking the chance though. Way to boom or bust for a top 50 pick. 

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3 hours ago, LuckyLukas said:

different year, same story

 

Although your analysis is well written and thought provoking I am going to have to disagree. The reasons why shall include but not be limited to the following:

 

1. Titans signed all pro LG Roger Saffold

 

B. Entire organization is on board with Henry carrying the load for the team and the Titans have made moves to make Henry the focal point of the offense.

 

3. Henry should be worked into the screen game to give him a safer floor 

 

D. Offensive line should be much healthier for the first half of the season, unlike last year.

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9 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

1. Titans signed all pro LG Roger Saffold

That is significant.

 

Quote

Entire organization is on board with Henry carrying the load for the team and the Titans have made moves to make Henry the focal point of the offense.

You mean like drafting another WR really high and signing Humphries to boot?

I'm not sure what "on board with Henry carrying the load" means unless you just mean running, which clearly is true, but it was last year, and they clearly have a focus on improved pass game. 

 

Quote

Henry should be worked into the screen game to give him a safer floor 

Pure speculation.

 

Quote

Offensive line should be much healthier for the first half of the season, unlike last year.

Also speculation, although that seems reasonable. But predicting success due to less injuries is a very dicey strategy.

 

Finally, from your article above:

Quote

 

Fellow running back Dion Lewis has already proven his effectiveness in the air, second to only wide receiver Corey Davis in targets (67) and receptions (59) last year.

In 2018, Henry posted 215 carries for 1,059 yards and 12 touchdowns. He reeled in 15 receptions for 99 yards.

 

So...more WR weapons and a really good pass-catching RB. Doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for Henry the pass catcher. 

In other words:  different year, same story. :)  Not that that's bad, but I'd dock pts for PPR. 

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36 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

The reasons why shall include but not be limited to the following:

5, and also E, and V): Henry seemed to finally get it and has a new attitude. 

https://247sports.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/Article/Derrick-Henry-Titans-132485503/

He credits a frank conversation with former Titan great Eddie George that led to the turnaround. Henry on what George told him to do.“He shot me straight and told me I needed to finish runs, that I needed to be more physical, and make the defense pay. He told me I wasn’t playing to my potential, and I could play better. That’s the stuff I needed to hear. It gave me a different outlook moving forward.”

To me this is the main story, the rest is fluff.

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