DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, bomont said:

You mean like drafting another WR really high and signing Humphries to boot?

 

an interesting perspective: outside of the all new cleveland browns, is there an NFL team that has a receiving corps more challenging for defenses?

humphries proved that he was a difficult matchup last season; corey davis is just waiting to break out; and brown (imo) is the most talented/balanced rookie WR. assuming delainie warrior is back on two feet, seems to me that these 4 players are among the best overall group of receivers. other teams have more talented WRs---the rams clearly show this regularly, the bolts now complement mike williams / KA with hunter henry---but these three WRs and one TE would demand respect from defenses: it would be very difficult to stack the box against derrick henry with these four at the line of scrimmage.

i say "would demand" and "would be" to make one thing clear: if the titans had a QB, the combo of offensive line and receiving corp would create some magical openings for the freight trains that is derrick henry.

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In fairness, that sounds great in theory, but that's all it is. If I'm playing them Week 1, I'm absolutely daring them to beat me with the pass. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

outside of the all new cleveland browns, is there an NFL team that has a receiving corps more challenging for defenses?

Sir, sir, I know this one: 

- Vikings: Thielen, Diggs, Rudolph

- Rams: Woods, Cooks, Kupp

I can probably think of 20 more, but lets start here. The main thing is that those other offenses won't have Mariota.

Besides, are we seriously touting Adam Humphries on this forum? A guy with 2 100-yard games in 4 seasons? Who had 8+ targets 6 times last season and couldn't take it over 82 yards?

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39 minutes ago, bomont said:

That is significant.

 

You mean like drafting another WR really high and signing Humphries to boot?

I'm not sure what "on board with Henry carrying the load" means unless you just mean running, which clearly is true, but it was last year, and they clearly have a focus on improved pass game. 

 

Pure speculation.

 

Also speculation, although that seems reasonable. But predicting success due to less injuries is a very dicey strategy.

 

Finally, from your article above:

So...more WR weapons and a really good pass-catching RB. Doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for Henry the pass catcher. 

In other words:  different year, same story. :)  Not that that's bad, but I'd dock pts for PPR. 

 

Ok, let's look a little closer shall we? 

The biggest free agent acquisition for the Titans was by far and away Roger Saffold. Adam Humphries was a very smart and shrewd signing. Also they signed Tannehill, which I will address later. Corey Davis is being de-valued already because of the Titans commitment to the running game and Mariotas problems staying healthy and throwing the deep ball. Humphries is a good signing because with a strong offensive line Henry can get you to 3rd and 5 or less and on those plays Mariota is good when he gets to playaction and that is where Humphries will really earn his money. He is going to be a critical guy on those 3rd downs. He will see most his catches withing 15-20 yds or less from the line of scrimmage. Having a safe and reliable guy like Humphries to work that soft under belly of the defense will not only pull the LBers back and allow Henry more room to run Humphries is a sure handed receiver who will help move those chains for another set of downs, which will result in more carry opportunities and potential goal line carries for Henry.

 

I think Vrabel is doing a good job building this team around Henry with other very good weapons and is de-emphasising Mariota. With Mariotas injury history they brought in Tannehill. Now Tannehill is not the best QB, we all know that but let's look at what the Titans would need him to do if forced into action. You got LT pro bowl Taylor Lewan, All Pro Roger Saffold at LG anchoring a solid OLine, so Tannehill needs to be able to hand off to henry going left and run playaction to Humphries or Delanie Walker or Davis and keep the chains moving. Nothing special, just keep the chains moving and let Henry do the heavy lifting on early downs, sprinkle in some Dion Lewis to keep Henry fresh for the 4th quarter. I believe GM John Robinson and Mike Vrabel are putting together a team that is built to succeed without relying so heavily on the health of Mariota and that's by playing great defense, grinding the clock down with Henry and Humphries and Delanie Walker moving the chains and trying to hit Corey Davis for some big plays. AJ Brown is gonna have a hard time even finding a lot of targets for the titans so I see him as a small factor his rookie year. Chances are he will get playing time but not a ton of targets unless a couple injuries but I think he will be an excellent Corey Davis replacement since Corey is on his 3rd year in the league and Tennessee might not want to renew his contract with how Robinson and Vrabel are building their team.

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29 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Sir, sir, I know this one: 

- Vikings: Thielen, Diggs, Rudolph

- Rams: Woods, Cooks, Kupp

I can probably think of 20 more, but lets start here. The main thing is that those other offenses won't have Mariota.

Besides, are we seriously touting Adam Humphries on this forum? A guy with 2 100-yard games in 4 seasons? Who had 8+ targets 6 times last season and couldn't take it over 82 yards?

 

Adam Humphries was specifically brought in to help move the chains on 3rd down. They don't want him operating more than 20 yds down the field. That's what Davis and brown are for. Titans want to move the chains, control the clock, grind the game down.they needed a sure handed WR just like Humphries to work the soft spots in the zones and operate just like a little Edelman clone. It was a masterful move by Robinson and Vrabel to get a guy who is excellent at what they need him to do, get those 5 and 6 yard receptions for 1st downs. He is the leading candidate to me to lead the titans in 3rd down targets this year cause he has great hands and Mariota or Tannehill will have no problem running playaction and hitting Humphries for a 1st down. If it goes as planned Humphries will be a big part of keeping the titans offense moving by moving the chains on 3rd downs.

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Sorry this just sounds like more speculation and wishful thinking. Not saying it's wrong necessarily, but if their plan is "let's de-emphasize our starting QB" IMO you're in trouble already. This is not the 70s. You realistically cannot succeed without at least a solid pass game and dependable QB. They have not shown that in the Mariota era. It's make or break for him and if he stumbles again, Tannehill might just be good enough for them to fall into the Fins' trap of thinking he can take the next step, but he can't. 

I like Henry for solid ground production but in our PPR league he will probably be a lower-end RB2 (which I may resort to depending how the draft goes!).  

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2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Adam Humphries was specifically brought in to help move the chains on 3rd down. They don't want him operating more than 20 yds down the field. That's what Davis and brown are for. Titans want to move the chains, control the clock, grind the game down.they needed a sure handed WR just like Humphries to work the soft spots in the zones and operate just like a little Edelman clone. It was a masterful move by Robinson and Vrabel to get a guy who is excellent at what they need him to do, get those 5 and 6 yard receptions for 1st downs. He is the leading candidate to me to lead the titans in 3rd down targets this year cause he has great hands and Mariota or Tannehill will have no problem running playaction and hitting Humphries for a 1st down. If it goes as planned Humphries will be a big part of keeping the titans offense moving by moving the chains on 3rd downs.

 

well said. i was thinking the titans could have relied on taywan taylor for the 3rd down / slot role. taywan is talented, and with the acquisition of both brown and humphries, taywan seems like the odd man out.

2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Sir, sir, I know this one: 

- Vikings: Thielen, Diggs, Rudolph

- Rams: Woods, Cooks, Kupp

I can probably think of 20 more, but lets start here. The main thing is that those other offenses won't have Mariota.

Besides, are we seriously touting Adam Humphries on this forum? A guy with 2 100-yard games in 4 seasons? Who had 8+ targets 6 times last season and couldn't take it over 82 yards?

 

true, you might say, “didn’t deshaun watson led clemson in that undefeated season the year after adam humphries graduated?” yes. you might say, “wasn’t humphries as a senior relegated to WR3 by a freshman?” yes. you might say, “didn’t humphries go undrafted and then remain obscure on the buccaneers for three seasons?” yes, yes, a thousand times yes.

 

but did you watch him play at all? the kid has talent. and other than attending a top program in college, humphries’ trajectory is a lot like adam thielen’s: undrafted, obscure, and when given a shot after several seasons his talent surfaced.

 

humphries ended the 2018 season between TY Hilton and amari cooper in receptions, though being a slot-only guy his catch rate was higher than both. in total yards, his 816 places him just behind calvin ridley, though he ain’t as sexy. for TDs, humprhies is tied with kittle, cooks, and golladay. all this for an UDFA who went undrafted in fantasy as well. if humphries had landed on a team with any passing game whatsoever, i’d expect his 2019 would be solid in PPR because he’s a dependable slot receiver able to make plays after the catch. i’d even suggest that if mike williams didn’t show up as an outstanding freshman at clemson, we would have seen humphries succeed his senior year, get drafted, and breakout sooner…

note; i'm now cashing in on my previous apology for derailing a future thread presently derailed here.

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50 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

note; i'm now cashing in on my previous apology for derailing a future thread presently derailed here

 

giphy.gif

 

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Round 3 ADP currently? Henry really has fantasy owners fooled. This guy had only two double digit fantasy outings going into Week 13 in standard formats last season. Then a couple of flukey god tier playoff performances and he's being drafted as a mid-range RB2? 

If I were going to buy on Henry at his current price (spoiler alert: I'm not going to), I'd have to be convinced that Weeks 14 and 15 weren't anomalies. Instead, I'm having difficulty ignoring his numbers through Week 12, where he posted 434 yards and 4 TDs on 3.7 YPC. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

If I were going to buy on Henry at his current price (spoiler alert: I'm not going to), I'd have to be convinced that Weeks 14 and 15 weren't anomalies. Instead, I'm having difficulty ignoring his numbers through Week 12, where he posted 434 yards and 4 TDs on 3.7 YPC. 

IANDHC (*) but:

I am convinced that this is the reason why Henry suddenly clicked.

Will he play 110% again this season? Not sure. He'll have to motivate himself again.

 

(*) I am not DerrickHenrysCleats

Edited by Boudewijn

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9 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Round 3 ADP currently? Henry really has fantasy owners fooled. This guy had only two double digit fantasy outings going into Week 13 in standard formats last season. Then a couple of flukey god tier playoff performances and he's being drafted as a mid-range RB2? 

If I were going to buy on Henry at his current price (spoiler alert: I'm not going to), I'd have to be convinced that Weeks 14 and 15 weren't anomalies. Instead, I'm having difficulty ignoring his numbers through Week 12, where he posted 434 yards and 4 TDs on 3.7 YPC. 

 

Context is important.

 

Are you aware or do you care about how the season went last year for Henry? Or do you just check game stats and Henrys early season gamelogs don't look impressive to you as his weeks 13-16 game logs.

 

Well, there is cause and effect. You can pay attention to it as a pre-cursor to what the new year football season will bring or you can blindly look at stats on a gamelogs from the previous year and pass on him.

 

Henry was not a designated bell cow starter for the Titans to begin the season. He was getting double digits touches but they were sprinkled in along with Dion Lewis. Henry had a 60 yd TD against Miami called back for a phantom holding call in the 1 at game last year.

 

Titans OLine was injured last year for the first 6 games. Marcus Mariota missed several games causing Blaine Gabbert to start games. Henry was hit in the backfield more than any other RB in the NFL last year and despite that stat he gained the most yards after contact than any other RB in the NFL. If that does not speak volumes to you I don't know what does. Titans went straight out and signed one of the best LGs in football in Roger Saffold to go next to Taylor Lewan. They drafted another OL in the draft a d have a quality RT in Conklin. They have depth on the OLine, the got Tannehill to back up Mariota so the offense won't fall off a cliff if he gets injured. They signed one of the best slot men in football to help move the chains on 3rd downs and in case you missed it everyone agrees that the offense wants to run through Henry this season. Weeks 13-16 last year is much more indicative of what you will see out of Henry this year, in my humble opinion.

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People actually care about Adam Humphries? Lol ok

 

theres lots of “reasons” why DH sucked for most of the season last year, but frankly the only thing I care about is that he had to split touches with dion Lewis. I don’t care if he didn’t have a great ypc for most of the season bc bigger backs need carries to actually be effective as opposed to scar backs like ekeler or Cohen who would see their ypc decrease with touches. I actually think DH is a great rb and has been extremely unlucky so far in his career. Splitting carries with demarco Murray, ok that’s justified I guess, good potential mentor. Dion Lewis? Wow classic everyone looks better on the pats player. And they gave him a ridiculous contract. Maybe the new coaching staff isn’t brain dead and the defense won’t know it’s a run every time Henry is on the field, but something tells me Henry will be stuck in some 60/40 split again and of the titans are behind in games (I think they’re an above average team but who knows) Henry’s production will suffer greatly. So the healthy oline, pep talk from Eddie George, whatever else is all nice and dandy, but I need someone to convince me his coaches won’t sabotage him with 10 carries a game. Just too much risk for me in the third. 

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22 minutes ago, bomont said:

Therefore, draft Hunt above those other 2 :wub:

I don’t thing there was an fantasy relevance in that post. Not sure why it was posted here. 

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Love this guys talent. However, I stay away from RB’s that are gameflow dependent... you have to catch the ball go have a successful 16 game season or there will be some let downs. 

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

Love this guys talent. However, I stay away from RB’s that are gameflow dependent... you have to catch the ball go have a successful 16 game season or there will be some let downs. 

 

That's fair but for where he is being drafted at you dont expect him to have 16 successful games. Hes gonna have a few bad games becuase of game flow but almost every RB who wasnt saquon or CMC had a couple duds. Henry might have a few down games due to game flow but the games the titans are in he will be fed. It wouldnt surprise me if he led the league in rushing attempts, yards, and TDs. 

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TDs maybe, attempts and esp yards I would definitely be surprised.

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4 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

That's fair but for where he is being drafted at you dont expect him to have 16 successful games. Hes gonna have a few bad games becuase of game flow but almost every RB who wasnt saquon or CMC had a couple duds. Henry might have a few down games due to game flow but the games the titans are in he will be fed. It wouldnt surprise me if he led the league in rushing attempts, yards, and TDs. 

Perhaps if Zeke, Saquon, Chubb, Mixon, CMC and Kamara all tear their acls. Week 1.

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42 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Perhaps if Zeke, Saquon, Chubb, Mixon, CMC and Kamara all tear their acls. Week 1.


I could make an argument Henry would have more attempts, rushing yards, and rushing TDs than all of those guys except probably Zeke. He'll probably lead the league in rushing again maybe attempts as well.

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11 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Hes gonna have a few bad games becuase of game flow but almost every RB who wasnt saquon or CMC had a couple duds.

Check out Henry's gamelog for the 2018 fantasy regular season. It was almost exclusively duds. 8 out of the first 12 games of the year he posted fewer than 6 fantasy points. And he's being drafted a couple of rounds higher this year?? Oh boy. What a time to be alive. 

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5 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Check out Henry's gamelog for the 2018 fantasy regular season. It was almost exclusively duds. 8 out of the first 12 games of the year he posted fewer than 6 fantasy points. And he's being drafted a couple of rounds higher this year?? Oh boy. What a time to be alive. 

 

While it's useful to look at the past, it's also useful to look at the changing context when trying to understand the future.  You seem to be trying to ignore the context:

1. Henry got better

2. The OL got much better.

3. The old OC didn't know how to use him (in an outside zone committee) but the new OC has said things to indicate that he does know how (more inside zone and power, as the featured runner)

4. The HC, GM, and OC have all indicated that they found the formula in the last 4 weeks and want to continue to ride Derrick Henry. 

 

I see a situation that has improved dramatically. If you'd rather wait for a guy to break out for a full sixteen before you draft him, then there's merit to that approach. Let's not pretend that the past is all there is though. 

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one fantasy expert, ESPN’s Andre Snelling, is still calling Henry a fantasy football sleeper for this upcoming season despite his legendary, league-winning four-game run.

 

Henry was well on his way to a bust season in 2018, splitting time ineffectively with Dion Lewis, who saw a lot of the field in passing situations. Through 12 games, Henry was averaging only 10.7 rushing attempts for 39.5 yards (3.7 YPC) and 0.4 touchdowns. That all changed during the last quarter of the season, during which Henry averaged 21.8 attempts for 146.3 yards (6.7 YPC) and 1.8 touchdowns over the last four games. Henry is an old-school, pounding running back who needs bunches of touches to be effective, and the Titans seemed to recognize that down the stretch.

Snelling makes a good point about Henry’s usage. Early on in 2018, it seemed as though the Titans were hellbent on Henry and fellow back Dion Lewis splitting carries, with Lewis coming out on top with a superior amount of carries and touches in many games.

 

In fact, Lewis saw double-digit carries in eight of 16 games last season, which was surprising for a back who was thought to be primarily a third-down, pass-catching back. At most, we figured he’d be a secondary ball carrier to the more traditional pounder in Henry.

But things are about to change in a big way.

Why you should be bullish on Derrick Henry

As Snellings also pointed out in his write-up, both head coach Mike Vrabel and general manager Jon Robinson have hinted that Henry will see more carries than a year ago.

To take it a step further, new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has even talked positively about Henry, saying that the Titans “hope to build on that” in reference to what he did at the end of last season.

So it would seem there will be a change in the way things are done, with Henry receiving the vast majority of work on the ground. Add in the fact that the Titans should have a run-first offense and this situation has all the makings of a heavy workload for Henry.

 

The Titans weren’t satisfied with what was lackluster offensive line play last season, so the team has revamped the offensive front with the free-agent acquisition of left guard Rodger Saffold.

The return of right guard Kevin Pamphile, who played in just three games last season, will also be a boost. If Pamphile can’t get the job done, the Titans have third-round pick Nate Davis waiting in the wings, and the rookie could even win the starting job outright in training camp.

There is a lot to be excited about if you’re targeting Henry in your fantasy draft. At worst, Henry will be an RB2 as long as he gets the number of carries—we’d pencil him in for 15 or so per game—and goal line opportunities we think he will, but he certainly has RB1 potential written all over him.

With running backs being as highly valued as they are in fantasy, it’s safe to assume Henry will be off the board in a 12-team league by late in the second round. The Alabama product will be a breakout star in 2019, so don’t wait too long to nab him

 

 

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