DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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I have become even more fascinated by the sheer amount of daily off-season boosterism for Henry.  Speaking totally honestly, I hope DHC gets a chance to meet DH one day.  If there is any justice in this world, it will happen one day.

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Titans running back Derrick Henry is Touchdown Wire's No. 6 rusher

 

Hardly any player was able to go from a slow 2018 start to making his name known across the league last season quite like Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry did.

Henry opened the year playing second-fiddle to former New England Patriots rusher Dion Lewis, then worked his way back into the Titans’ offense in a much bigger way than anyone saw coming, with a record-breaking performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars late in the year.

With the value of continuity being so important to the team and the promotion of Arthur Smith to offensive coordinator to ensure that, it’s safe to say Henry’s role within the ground game and overall offense will only keep expanding.

Because of the momentum and difference-making ability he has, it comes as no surprised that the Touchdown Wire ranked him highly in its list of top NFL running backs.

The former Alabama standout placed at No. 6 — directly ahead of Melvin Gordon III and just behind Christian McCaffrey.

“Arm-tackling Henry in the open field is an invitation to embarrassment–he’s far too powerful on the move to be dissuaded by that,” Doug Farrar wrote. “For his size, he’s proven able to confuse defenders with quick jump cuts and some downfield acceleration, but Henry’s game is mostly about power with a speed element, and 2018 was the season in which that all came together.”

The 6-foot-3, 247-pounder recorded just nine carries of at least 15 yards last year, but was able to make up for it with runs like the 99-yard scoring rush against the division rival Jags.

 

 

**********Henry also broke 45 tackles on 215 carries — the best in the league.**********

 
:)
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Posted (edited)

After that last article, I'm projecting him high round 2 adp snake, roughly 16 overall

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins

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3 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

After that last article, I'm projecting him high round 2 adp snake, roughly 16 overall

In some leagues he might go between 12 and 17.

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10 hours ago, diggernicks said:

Im all aboard the derek henry pain train. TBH, I've never owned him before though in a league 

Then u never felt the pain

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https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player-news/headlines/9129506?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

"Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official website reports new OC Arthur Smith said he intends to "ride" contract-year RB Derrick Henry this season.

Henry turned 25 in January and is obviously coming off a monster finish to last season when he rushed for 625 yards and eight touchdowns on 97 carries (6.44 YPC) across five December contests. Smith is a complete unknown as a coordinator, but the Titans would be wise to stick with what worked down the stretch in 2018. And that was an offense centered around Henry. He's being drafted as an RB2 in fantasy. We've been through this with Henry in past offseasons, but this time it seems legit where the Titans actually want him to be their centerpiece, especially when Marcus Mariota has consistently been unable to stay healthy and/or produce on the field. Henry is playing for his next contract and should be motivated"

 

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Posted (edited)

.

Edited by MetsSox
Accident

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7 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player-news/headlines/9129506?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

"Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official website reports new OC Arthur Smith said he intends to "ride" contract-year RB Derrick Henry this season.

Henry turned 25 in January and is obviously coming off a monster finish to last season when he rushed for 625 yards and eight touchdowns on 97 carries (6.44 YPC) across five December contests. Smith is a complete unknown as a coordinator, but the Titans would be wise to stick with what worked down the stretch in 2018. And that was an offense centered around Henry. He's being drafted as an RB2 in fantasy. We've been through this with Henry in past offseasons, but this time it seems legit where the Titans actually want him to be their centerpiece, especially when Marcus Mariota has consistently been unable to stay healthy and/or produce on the field. Henry is playing for his next contract and should be motivated"

 

 

Giddy up!

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2 hours ago, tekashi26ix said:

He may be climbing into the end of the second round, big risk, huge reward. Very tough.

I think the risk could still outweigh the reward if his ADP ascends to that range. While we've seen his ability to dominate (in small doses), we have also seen his propensity to post useless fantasy performances (in large doses). But even if he CONSISTENTLY plays well this season, it's unlikely that he overachieves as a second rounder in most formats due to his lack of involvement in the passing game. 

So basically just dissecting the semantics of your wording since TC hasn't really started yet lol, but I think he'd be more of a "massive risk, okay reward" in round 2. 

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I know that most leagues use some form of PPR, and pass-catching has never been a big part of Henry's game, but I think Henry's TD floor is as high as any RB in the league, which should help mitigate some of the downside or risk in drafting him. 

He seems like the kind of guy who could have the occasional 20 rushes for 64 yards performance, but if he punches in a TD no one will be complaining. I would set the over/under on rushing TDs at 12.5 for this year, and I'm taking the over personally. 

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

I would set the over/under on rushing TDs at 12.5 for this year, and I'm taking the over personally. 

I'm not saying that it isn't possible, but for reference- only two players rushed for over 12 TDs last season. 

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If you don’t catch the ball you aren’t a 2nd rounder. Period. As soon as they go down 17-0 he will disappear. I love his talent and skill set, he will have some monster weeks for sure and think he can finish top 10 at his position. If you don’t catch the ball though, the peaks and valleys can be rough and hurt you week to week. 

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30 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

If you don’t catch the ball you aren’t a 2nd rounder. Period. As soon as they go down 17-0 he will disappear. I love his talent and skill set, he will have some monster weeks for sure and think he can finish top 10 at his position. If you don’t catch the ball though, the peaks and valleys can be rough and hurt you week to week. 

This is a legitimate concern. He was a trashcan for 2/3 of the season last year and I’m not 100% convinced (as some people are) that this was entirely due to coaching and line issues, but that’s a crutch that Henry’s apologists will continue to use. 

@Ryansm11 brings up a point that is difficult to refute, however. Tennessee plays in a strong division with no cupcakes. There will inevitably be times when they go down big and Henry will vanish. That’s tough to argue against and I’d be hard-pressed to use a high pick on a guy who played poorly for the majority of last year AND is so rigidly one-dimensional. I don’t care how many highlights he had for that one month of the season that he actually showed up. 

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48 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I'm not saying that it isn't possible, but for reference- only two players rushed for over 12 TDs last season. 

 

44 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

If you don’t catch the ball you aren’t a 2nd rounder. Period. As soon as they go down 17-0 he will disappear. I love his talent and skill set, he will have some monster weeks for sure and think he can finish top 10 at his position. If you don’t catch the ball though, the peaks and valleys can be rough and hurt you week to week. 

 

Good thing Henry can catch the ball.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Derrick can catch the ball. I'm sure the Titans will incorporate that more this year.

 

If you don't believe that Henry will be incorporated in the offense when they go down a couple TDs then you are free to downgrade Henry as you like. 

What the Titans learned last year in addition to there OLine woes and QB injuries was that the useage of Henry was not correct. They started the season running Dion Lewis and henry in an odd separation of carries, alternating series, taking Derrick out or sprinkling him in. The timeshare just wasn't working. Of course the OLine and QB needed to get healthy but so did the useage.

 

Nothing is more played out by Henry detractors than saying Henry sucked for 8 weeks and did nothing. Yeah, that's true but if you are unwilling to figure out why and approach the new year with the pertinent information like the renewed commitment to Henry, the upgrades on the OLine, and Henrys advanced metrics stats of broken tackles and yards after contact then you are just being obtuse and choosing to deny any information that does not fit your narrative.

 

There are more advanced fantasy leagues though so forgive me if you play in a little less competitive league and don't like to dive as in-depth as I do.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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4 hours ago, tekashi26ix said:

He may be climbing into the end of the second round, big risk, huge reward. Very tough.

 

Perfect place to pair him with Amari.

Set it and forget it.

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Posted (edited)

Some teams, particularly those with good, young defenses and power run games, will remain committed to the run even when they're down 17-0 because they understand that running the ball is still their best method of generating offense and putting points on the board. You keep feeding Henry the ball because you believe the combination of your blocking and his talent with the ball in his hands will inevitably create a big play and put you in scoring range (or put 6 on the board) in the blink of an eye. You also keep feeding Henry because it opens up play action, which would fool no one if you abandon the run completely and/or take Henry off the field. 

If defenses want to sit back and prevent the big pass play, it will only allow Henry to face light boxes and undersized DBs in place of LBs when he gets to the second level.

I can't say with certainty the Titans will make true on their plans to "ride" Derrick Henry, but if they truly mean it then they won't simply abandon the run if/when they fall behind, even if it's by multiple scores (unless it's 4th quarter). 

Also, I agree with earlier posts about Henry's ability to catch the ball. He can. He has. He will. He might not catch 40+ passes but he's capable of it and he is also capable of doing real damage after the catch. 

Edited by mjb03003

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13 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Derrick can catch the ball. I'm sure the Titans will incorporate that more this year.

 

If you don't believe that Henry will be incorporated in the offense when they go down a couple TDs then you are free to downgrade Henry as you like. 

What the Titans learned last year in addition to there OLine woes and QB injuries was that the useage of Henry was not correct. They started the season running Dion Lewis and henry in an odd separation of carries, alternating series, taking Derrick out or sprinkling him in. The timeshare just wasn't working. Of course the OLine and QB needed to get healthy but so did the useage.

 

Nothing is more played out by Henry detractors than saying Henry sucked for 8 weeks and did nothing. Yeah, that's true but if you are unwilling to figure out why and approach the new year with the pertinent information like the renewed commitment to Henry, the upgrades on the OLine, and Henrys advanced metrics stats of broken tackles and yards after contact then you are just being obtuse and choosing to deny any information that does not fit your narrative.

 

There are more advanced fantasy leagues though so forgive me if you play in a little less competitive league and don't like to dive as in-depth as I do.

I have 0 doubt about his skills as a runner. He’s a beast, I think 1300+ and 12 touchdowns is very reasonable. He has very few career catches though, and I don’t see why that would change. Game script can play a huge part in a running backs success. 39 career catches? If he was going to be used more as a pass catcher it would’ve happened by now. 

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1 minute ago, Ryansm11 said:

If he was going to be used more as a pass catcher it would’ve happened by now. 

 

I don't really agree with this. Look at Henry's career. Except for the tail end of last season, he's never been the undisputed #1. 

There's a new OC in place, and the team seems committed to Henry as the true lead back for the first time. 

I'm not saying he's going to catch 40+ balls but I also don't think it should be ruled out based on how he's been used previously/historically. 

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