DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

I’m not saying he won’t be good, just not on my radar 2nd round. 4th round I love his value. Most teams don’t stick to the run down 17-0, I think you’d be hard pressed to find many that do. I think he will have some 150 and 2 touchdown games. I also think he will have some 50 yard no touchdown games. When you pair that 1 catch per game average of his career so far you get an extremely low floor. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I don't really agree with this. Look at Henry's career. Except for the tail end of last season, he's never been the undisputed #1. 

There's a new OC in place, and the team seems committed to Henry as the true lead back for the first time. 

I'm not saying he's going to catch 40+ balls but I also don't think it should be ruled out based on how he's been used previously/historically. 

Being the lead back doesn’t mean he will catch the ball more. He was the lead back the last four weeks, correct? He caught three passes. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I’m not saying he won’t be good, just not on my radar 2nd round. 4th round I love his value. Most teams don’t stick to the run down 17-0, I think you’d be hard pressed to find many that do. I think he will have some 150 and 2 touchdown games. I also think he will have some 50 yard no touchdown games. When you pair that 1 catch per game average of his career so far you get an extremely low floor. 

 

Just wondering. Like if the Titans hot down 17-0 in the 1st quarter. Do you think the Titans would run Dion Lewis for the majority of the other 3 quarters?

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has any topic ever been more often discussed on this forum than Henry’s pass-catching (or lack thereof)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Being the lead back doesn’t mean he will catch the ball more. He was the lead back the last four weeks, correct? He caught three passes. 

 

They were not really trailing in any of those games. Henry was destroying them on the ground and his fantasy points were amazing, nobody cared about his receptions for those games.

 

We are talking about this year. They are committing to Henry as the #1 RB. If he averaged a measley 2 screen passes a game it would be 32 receptions for the season and as seen in his limited receptions already he is a nightmare to tackle in the open field.  32 catches would be very good to go with what Henry gives you on the ground. He has caught the ball enough for everyone to know he has the hands to be serviceable in the receiving game, enough where they don't have to sub him out for every single passing play.

 

I'm not trying to sell you on drafting him hire. I just can't help but chuckle to myself at the idea of Henry falling to the 4th round.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Has any topic ever been more often discussed on this forum than Henry’s pass-catching (or lack thereof)?

 

Yes the threat of Cameron brate to OJ Howard.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Yes the threat of Cameron brate to OJ Howard.

Good one!  Still a distant runner-up, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Has any topic ever been more often discussed on this forum than Henry’s pass-catching (or lack thereof)?

Christine michaels SPARQ and the Josh Gordon saga.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People assuming the Titans are gonna be down by two scores for half the season or something.

This is a good, young defense.  And there are good skill position players.

Henry's not a guy you can set and forget every single week; there will be matchups you'll want to avoid (Week 1 in Cleveland, maybe).

But let's not pretend the Titans are a bottom-5 team either.  They won 9 games last year with an injured QB, an injured OL, suboptimal playcalling and WRs with all kinds of drops.  They only lost a total of 4 games by 10 or more points last year, and the roster got better in important spots this year.

I'd take the under on 9 wins this year but it's not the dumpster fire people are assuming it's going to be.  If you can run the ball and play defense you're gonna be in a lot of games -- and those are two things the Titans are capable of.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

They were not really trailing in any of those games. Henry was destroying them on the ground and his fantasy points were amazing, nobody cared about his receptions for those games.

 

We are talking about this year. They are committing to Henry as the #1 RB. If he averaged a measley 2 screen passes a game it would be 32 receptions for the season and as seen in his limited receptions already he is a nightmare to tackle in the open field.  32 catches would be very good to go with what Henry gives you on the ground. He has caught the ball enough for everyone to know he has the hands to be serviceable in the receiving game, enough where they don't have to sub him out for every single passing play.

 

I'm not trying to sell you on drafting him hire. I just can't help but chuckle to myself at the idea of Henry falling to the 4th round.

And I’m not trying to sell you on him not being good or fantasy relevant. I’m just saying he will probably have a few games where he doesn’t contribute on the ground enough and to this point hasn’t shown he can be a 6 catch guy to offset that. Somebody mentioned 2nd round. I can’t have a guy 2nd round that will put up 25 points one week and then points the next. That’s all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At about the time Henry is scheduled to go off the draft boards...I'd rather be picking Aaron Jones, Fournette, Thielen, or Diggs. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/31/2019 at 4:00 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I think Henry will finish somewhere in the middle.

 

Even I am skeptical about Henry doing what Shaun Alexander did, 1,800 yds and 26 TDs is absurd.

 

However, Henry was hit before the line of scrimmage more than almost any other player in the NFL and at the same time led the league in yards after contact last season. What does this mean you may ask? Well, it means that for a RB who could use a little push from the Oline to maximize his running style was not getting any and despite this stat he led the league in yards gained after contact, meaning he is keeping his forward momentum moving and breaking tackles even before getting back to the line of scrimmage. Much different than a lot of the holes opened by other teams like KC or DAL or SD or Rams. Henry still had a ypc of 4.9 last season.

 

Vrabel and John Robinson know this stat and they know what Henry does once he gets a little momentum built up so they made some key moves this off-season to help with that. Jack Conklin is a pro bowl caliber RT but has been underperforming recently. Titans declined his 5th year option making him a free agent after this season. I think this motivates Conklin to want to have a Pro Bowl caliber season this year so he can sign himself a huge contract after this season. Then Tennessee went and signed Pro Bowl Guard Roger Saffold from the LA Rams. Saffold came in to his press conference and said he loved watching Henry run and wants to help him get up over 6 yards per carry and he knows he was brought in to help keep Henry from getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. I think 6 ypc would be amazing but for arguments sake I'd set it at 5.5 for this season. Taylor Lewan is a 3 time pro bowler at LT and 1 of the best in the league. Titans have excellent depth with Dennis Kelly able to play both tackle spots and drafting another guard in the draft. Should be a much better OLine this year.

 

The Titans s OLine started last year September - November 314 rush attempts for 1,226 yards and 7 TDs. Average of 3.9 yards per attempt.

 

In December when Lewan and Conklin were back the Titans OLine had 142 attempts for 801 yards and 8 TDs for an average of 5.64 yards per attempt

 

Now they have upgraded LG dramatically with Saffold. Perennial Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan, motivated jack Conklin at RT, Been Jones at C, and maybe Dennis Kelly or the rookie at RG. Henry to the left is going to become a common theme this season.

 

If Titans can come out and play all season like they did last December then Henry could reach high end RB1 numbers

 

If Henry gets to 300 rushes for 5.5 ypc that would equal 1,650yds, he scored 12 on the ground last season this year I think he can get to 16.

 

I also think around 36 catches for 300 yards and 2 TDs is well within Henrys grasp.

That would be a total of 321 .5 PPR fantasy points and would be 339 total fantasy points in full PPR.

 

Question is, how cheap do you think you can get him in order to maximize your profit when he exxxplodes this year? 

 

Damn. Held Henry all season through the ups and downs, and ultimately cashed in Week 15-16, but was not considering him at all this year. This post has me reconsidering. Didn’t realize the improvements made to the OL from early last season to now.

 

My only concern considering Henry’s price is that I haven’t really seen any confirmation that he’s out of the water from being in a somewhat timeshare with a Dion Lewis, particularly due to gamescript. I know we want to believe that he’s a workhorse, but Lewis is a good football player who has shown glimpses in the past. Not to mention, the team still has the same head coach from last year despite switching OCs. This same guy watched for 80% of the season as the offense trotted out Dion Lewis game after game ahead of Henry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not to mention this is the same FO that paid a pretty hefty sum for Lewis’s services.  They’re not just going to have him idly twiddling his thumbs on the sideline all season, and his forte is pass-catching.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nb009 said:

 

Damn. Held Henry all season through the ups and downs, and ultimately cashed in Week 15-16, but was not considering him at all this year. This post has me reconsidering. Didn’t realize the improvements made to the OL from early last season to now.

 

My only concern considering Henry’s price is that I haven’t really seen any confirmation that he’s out of the water from being in a somewhat timeshare with a Dion Lewis, particularly due to gamescript. I know we want to believe that he’s a workhorse, but Lewis is a good football player who has shown glimpses in the past. Not to mention, the team still has the same head coach from last year despite switching OCs. This same guy watched for 80% of the season as the offense trotted out Dion Lewis game after game ahead of Henry.

 

Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official website reports new OC Arthur Smith said he intends to "ride" contract-year RB Derrick Henry this season.

Henry turned 25 in January and is obviously coming off a monster finish to last season when he rushed for 625 yards and eight touchdowns on 97 carries (6.44 YPC) across five December contests. Smith is a complete unknown as a coordinator, but the Titans would be wise to stick with what worked down the stretch in 2018. And that was an offense centered around Henry. He's being drafted as an RB2 in fantasy. We've been through this with Henry in past offseasons, but this time it seems legit where the Titans actually want him to be their centerpiece, especially when Marcus Mariota has consistently been unable to stay healthy and/or produce on the field. Henry is playing for his next contract and should be motivated

 

 

What else can be said?

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Not to mention this is the same FO that paid a pretty hefty sum for Lewis’s services.  They’re not just going to have him idly twiddling his thumbs on the sideline all season, and his forte is pass-catching.

 

I don't think Lewis goes away. 

Even Henry gets tired after long runs ad receptions and needs a breather.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Not to mention this is the same FO that paid a pretty hefty sum for Lewis’s services.  They’re not just going to have him idly twiddling his thumbs on the sideline all season, and his forte is pass-catching.

 

I was being a bit facetious with my previous post but in all sincerity sometimes a front office just doesn't make the right decision.

 

Dion Lewis had plenty of opportunities last season but could never gain any traction. Week 14 is when Henry took over and after that Lewis had a role as the pass catcher but was mostly irrelevant from week 13 on when Henry took over.

 

Week 13 henry destroyed the jags, in mop up duty Lewis went 10 carries for 13 yards and had 5 catches for 39 yards. 0 TDs

 

Week 14 dion Lewis went 7 carries for 35 yards and had 3 catches for 9 yards. 0 TDs

 

Week 15 Lewis had 3 carries for 5 yards and 3 catches for 20 yards. 0 TDs

 

Week 16 Lewis had 0 carries and 3 catches for 23 yards.

 

Lewis touches decreased from week 13 -16. From 18 to 10 to 6 to 3.

 

I just feel like if the Titans liked how they looked in December of last year then the way to replicate that is to strengthen their Oline, check. Make the QB less of a liability, check. Put Henry at the forefront of the offense, check.

 

 

 

 

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

And I’m not trying to sell you on him not being good or fantasy relevant. I’m just saying he will probably have a few games where he doesn’t contribute on the ground enough and to this point hasn’t shown he can be a 6 catch guy to offset that. Somebody mentioned 2nd round. I can’t have a guy 2nd round that will put up 25 points one week and then points the next. That’s all. 

 

Every RB not named saquon or Christian has a bad game or 3. I mean DJ had what felt like 16 bad games but he still ended up being an RB1. (Bad games both rushing and receiving). I u derstand your concern with Henry. We all have the same concerns but just becuase a guy has a 50 yard 0 td week 3 or 4 times doesnt mean he cant justify his draft stock just like DJ. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

At about the time Henry is scheduled to go off the draft boards...I'd rather be picking Aaron Jones, Fournette, Thielen, or Diggs. 

 

Those guys always go ahead of him, besides Diggs sometimes.

 

Henry is one of my targets in the 4th, but the others seldom ever fall there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imagine developing your entire identity on this forum around one player, and then having the audacity to expect people to take you seriously when discussing said player. 

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2
  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Imagine developing your entire identity on this forum around one player, and then having the audacity to expect people to take you seriously when discussing said player. 

 

What does this have to do with Derrick's outlook?

 

I might have missed it but I guess I fooled myself thinking you would have something relevant to add.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

What does this have to do with Derrick's outlook?

 

I might have missed it but I guess I fooled myself thinking you would have something relevant to add.

Yeah man, I’ve had plenty of relevant OBJECTIVE posts in this thread. 

They may not be links to CBS ranking their top RBs in football or quotes of meaningless coachspeak, but I do my best. 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven’t heard anyone factoring in Alex Barnes yet.  I definitely don’t think he is any threat to Henry’s starting spot, but I can’t help but think that he could have some say in just how big Henry’s work load is.  Am I on an island here or do some others like what that kid could bring to the table?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I haven’t heard anyone factoring in Alex Barnes yet.  I definitely don’t think he is any threat to Henry’s starting spot, but I can’t help but think that he could have some say in just how big Henry’s work load is.  Am I on an island here or do some others like what that kid could bring to the table?

 

Your on an island. He could be good if Henry gets hurt and they decide to try to ride him but I doubt they would. Probably go to a timeshare with him and lewis

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Your on an island. He could be good if Henry gets hurt and they decide to try to ride him but I doubt they would. Probably go to a timeshare with him and lewis

 

Like I said, I don’t see Barnes as any threat to Henry this year, but if he somehow works his way into say 4 carries a game, a projected 300 carry season for Henry could end up being a 240 carry season.

 

Just some food for thought...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...