DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

I haven’t heard anyone factoring in Alex Barnes yet.  I definitely don’t think he is any threat to Henry’s starting spot, but I can’t help but think that he could have some say in just how big Henry’s work load is.  Am I on an island here or do some others like what that kid could bring to the table?

 

What kind of projections do you have for him?

Titans will be one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL this year. Barnes could have 4 a game for 64 on the season and Henry can still get to 300 carries.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

What kind of projections do you have for him?

Titans will be one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL this year. Barnes could have 4 a game for 64 on the season and Henry can still get to 300 carries.

 

I don’t have my head around how much Barnes will contribute, or if he’ll even make the regular roster.  I like his game a lot, and given his size/athleticism combination along with his level of production both as a rusher and receiver, as well as his pass protection skills I’m still trying to figure out why no team spent even as much as a 7th round pick on him.

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Something else I'll add: the Bengals were a complete tire fire last year but Joe Mixon was still able to manage 83 rush yards per game primarily because he was getting explosive runs.  He only ended up with 300 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD, which surprised me for being so low, but it was his rushing dominance that sustained his value.  They had no Dalton or AJG for half the year and the OL had 2 and a half staring caliber players.  So I just think the fear of the Titans offense is overblown.  Mixon ended up with a 3rd round ADP but he returned 2nd round value breaking 1k rushing yards in only 14 games.  Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Henry put up 250 and 1 receiving, either.

 

Last thing I'll add: Henry is tied with Gurley for 3rd best odds to lead the NFL in rushing TDs in 2019:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/opening-odds-lead-rushing-touchdowns-2019-zeke-saquon-favored/

 

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On 7/18/2019 at 9:07 AM, Lord_Varys said:

Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Henry put up 250 and 1 receiving, either.

It would surprise me, considering he’s averaged less than a reception per game played so far in his three-year career.  Barring some dramatic overhaul of the offensive scheme, I think that’s a pipe dream.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

It would surprise me, considering he’s averaged less than a reception per game played so far in his three-year career.  Barring some dramatic overhaul of the offensive scheme, I think that’s a pipe dream.

 

He had 15 receptions on 18 targets last year for 99 yards.

He had 13 rec on 15 targets for 137 yards as a rookie.

You can look at a doubling of his volume as dramatic.  Or you could look at it as simply one extra target per game.

Also, LaFleur threw to RBs on early downs at a league-low clip next year.  A regression to the mean could be considered dramatic when you're at one end of the bell curve, or it could just be considered normal.

All I'm thinking is that Henry was criminally underused in the screen game by an OC who didn't get it.  One more target per game is all it takes to get Henry to 250 and 1.

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Fair enough.  I’d be more inclined to believe that if the coaches had said anything to the effect that they would try to incorporate Henry more in the passing game this year.  Everything I’ve read suggests they are basically going to run the same scheme they ran down the stretch last season.

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13 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

He had 15 receptions on 18 targets last year for 99 yards.

He had 13 rec on 15 targets for 137 yards as a rookie.

You can look at a doubling of his volume as dramatic.  Or you could look at it as simply one extra target per game.

Also, LaFleur threw to RBs on early downs at a league-low clip next year.  A regression to the mean could be considered dramatic when you're at one end of the bell curve, or it could just be considered normal.

All I'm thinking is that Henry was criminally underused in the screen game by an OC who didn't get it.  One more target per game is all it takes to get Henry to 250 and 1.

Something else that should be added is that Henry wasnt getting starting touches for 95% of those games. Rookie year he was a back up lucky to get 15 plays in a game and last year was an absolute time share for 12 weeks. The last 4 games he averaged a catch a game so it still doesnt say much but they were also up most of the time with little need to pass. 

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They still have Lewis who is more adept at pass catching. Don't know why they would just eliminate him.

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9 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Fair enough.  I’d be more inclined to believe that if the coaches had said anything to the effect that they would try to incorporate Henry more in the passing game this year.  Everything I’ve read suggests they are basically going to run the same scheme they ran down the stretch last season.

Agreed . If ya just incorporate 1 screen pass a game itll make the defense have one more thing to prepare for and keep them a little more honest.. but what do I kno. 

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I believe Henry will be a legitimate 2-down back, and occasionally a 3-down back when they are ahead in games and or playing the clock.

Henry, in all likelihood, will average around 17-22 rushes per game, and we'll likely see a healthy number of 20/80/1 lines from him.

I think it's fair to assume that he'll reel in his typical 12-15 passes again, for somewhere between 100-150 yards.

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40 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Something else that should be added is that Henry wasnt getting starting touches for 95% of those games. Rookie year he was a back up lucky to get 15 plays in a game and last year was an absolute time share for 12 weeks. The last 4 games he averaged a catch a game so it still doesnt say much but they were also up most of the time with little need to pass. 

95%?  He got a ton of touches last season, even if he wasn’t the nominal starter.

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Henry is a great fantasy football player....for your competitors to draft with as high of capital as he is going.  Have fun figuring out that offense....

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Fair enough.  I’d be more inclined to believe that if the coaches had said anything to the effect that they would try to incorporate Henry more in the passing game this year.  Everything I’ve read suggests they are basically going to run the same scheme they ran down the stretch last season.

 

Titans have also expressed a willingness not not be as predictable. A good way to do that is exactly what @Lord_Varys alluded to in giving Henry just the slightest uptick in receptions. A few sprinkled in to him on early downs to keep the defense honest. As mentioned, Titans are not trying to re-invent anything just adding 1 more pass per game to Henry. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MetsSox said:

They still have Lewis who is more adept at pass catching. Don't know why they would just eliminate him.

 

Because they want to win football games?

 

I'm just brainstorming here. Cause from the time they committed to He ry in week 13 Lewis touches went progressively down

 

Week 13 - 18 touches on mop up duty of henrys record breaking performance

Week 14 - 10 total touches

Week 15 - 6 total touches

Week 16 - 3 total touches.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Titans have also expressed a willingness not not be as predictable. 

Oh thank goodness! I fully expected the Titans staff to advertise that they would be running a predictable offense. This changes everything. 

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51 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

I believe Henry will be a legitimate 2-down back, and occasionally a 3-down back when they are ahead in games and or playing the clock.

Henry, in all likelihood, will average around 17-22 rushes per game, and we'll likely see a healthy number of 20/80/1 lines from him.

I think it's fair to assume that he'll reel in his typical 12-15 passes again, for somewhere between 100-150 yards.

 

In addition to the 20/80/1 games will be plenty of games of 20/180/2TDs.

 

Henry has more 60+ yard runs than any other RB in football over the last 2 seasons while sharing carries in Nashville.

 

Henry has also broken more tackles than any other RB last year and was hit behind the line of scrimmage more than any other RB last year and since then Tennessee went out and signed one of the best LGs in the NFL.

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20 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

In addition to the 20/80/1 games will be plenty of games of 20/180/2TDs.

 

Henry has more 60+ yard runs than any other RB in football over the last 2 seasons while sharing carries in Nashville.

 

Henry has also broken more tackles than any other RB last year and was hit behind the line of scrimmage more than any other RB last year and since then Tennessee went out and signed one of the best LGs in the NFL.

Are there stats for these?

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yes,  I don't have the links but they were posted in last year's thread I think.

I’m not doubting them I like seeing sites that have those kind of stats/info

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I, too, would be interested in seeing the stats for number of times a RB was hit behind the LOS last year.

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Most NFL Rushing Yards in 2019: Top-Dozen Odds and Predictions:

 

4) Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

 

 

In 2019, Derrick Henry will be working without the great Matt LaFleur as his coordinator, and he will have to learn how to play well with the new guy, Arthur Smith, the former tight ends coach, so it will be up to Henry to prove his run game is unaffected by all that.

Henry, the former Heisman Trophy winner, has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and in 2018, his second year, he posted enough rushing yards (1,059) to finish ranked seventh overall among his mostly veteran peers.

The offensive line that Henry has become used to has changed, the Titans having lost guards Josh Kline and Quinton Spain to free agency, and now with newly signed left guard Rodger Saffold in the mix, Henry will have to prove that all the distractions in the world won’t keep him from getting better once again and taking a serious run at the 2019 rushing yards title.

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9 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I’m not doubting them I like seeing sites that have those kind of stats/info

 

Ok, I'll try to find it. I don't use pay sites that have a lot of the advanced metrics. Someone posted it in his thread that said last year he was hit behind the LOS, maybe it was 2nd most in the NFL but I'm pretty sure he was #1 in broken tackles and I'm 90% sure he has more 60+ yard runs than any RB in the NFL over the last 2 seasons.

 

 

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People ask @DerrickHenrysCleats for stats to back up his claims and he responds with:

A. An opinion piece from God knows where 

B. A post backtracking about how he isn’t 100% about his claims and is only “pretty sure”

 

Go figure. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Ok, I'll try to find it. I don't use pay sites that have a lot of the advanced metrics. Someone posted it in his thread that said last year he was hit behind the LOS, maybe it was 2nd most in the NFL but I'm pretty sure he was #1 in broken tackles and I'm 90% sure he has more 60+ yard runs than any RB in the NFL over the last 2 seasons.

 

 

I can confirm that DHC is right that Henry finished first (tied with Carson and AP) in broken tackles last season.  I have no idea where to find “hits behind the LOS,” though, for RBs.

 

I also have no idea which site charts most runs by a RB over 60 yards in the last two seasons.  Sounds awfully specific.

Edited by BMcP

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Henry ranked third in elusive rating last year (89.7) and, even more impressively, averaged 4.21 yards after contact per attempt, which ranks third-best this past decade. Henry also ranked 11th in yards per carry (4.93), well above Dion Lewis (3.34), who ranked fifth-worst. Even so, Lewis still out-snapped Henry 600 to 401. That split tipped more toward Henry’s favor over the final four weeks of the season (134 to 107) when Henry averaged 146 rushing yards per game

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