DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I can confirm that DHC is right that Henry finished first (tied with Carson and AP) in broken tackles last season.  I have no idea where to find “hits behind the LOS,” though, for RBs.

 

I also have no idea which site charts most runs by a RB over 60 yards in the last two seasons.  Sounds awfully specific.

 

Pay attention in these Henry threads a d you will probably catch these same stats that I do.

 

Sometime people just post a Twitter blurb of these things that I see. Since I don't have Twitter it's harder for me to track them all down but I don't just make them up.

 

Lol.

 

Also, thank you @BMcP for confirming that I was in fact correct when claiming Henry broke more tackles on the least amount of carries of any RB in the NFL for 2018.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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32 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Pay attention in these Henry threads a d you will probably catch these same stats that I do.

 

Sometime people just post a Twitter blurb of these things that I see. Since I don't have Twitter it's harder for me to track them all down but I don't just make them up.

 

Lol.

 

Also, thank you @BMcP for confirming that I was in fact correct when claiming Henry broke more tackles on the least amount of carries of any RB in the NFL for 2018.

I try!  I would have to say I have been one of the more...avid followers of the DH thread for a few years now, as I am sure you would attest.

Yes, if there is one strength of his game I have never doubted for a moment, it is his tackle-breaking ability.

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19 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Yes, if there is one strength of his game I have never doubted for a moment, it is his tackle-breaking ability.

 

"breaking" a tackle is a misleading stat for DH, because he's only breaking a potential tackle 50% of the time.

the other 50% he's beating up on defenders who really had no chance at tackling him in the first place, though it may be recorded as a "broken tackle."

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You mean like the Jaguars D in that clip?  The players who looked so uninterested in playing that game that many concluded they were trying to send a tacit message to their coaching staff/FO about their displeasure?

Not taking anything away from Henry’s tackle-breaking ability, but that was an absolute joke of a “performance” by the JAX D in that game.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

 

Henry #2 behind Gurley on this advanced metrics list. Still looking for the hit behind line of scrimmage stat.

 

What is the intelligence and vision stats on this guy?  I just don't get him, he is like a poor man's Blount, who is a poor man's Bettis.  

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

95%?  He got a ton of touches last season, even if he wasn’t the nominal starter.

 

Your correct. I meant he wasnt getting bell cow snaps like he is supposedly going to get. Idk what his snap percentage was but it will most certainly go up since he was in a near 50/50 time share thus raising his odds of getting an extra catch or two a game. Even though it's just a catch anything helps when a guy is only getting 15 on a season. I shoulda used the word snaps not touches.

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Your correct. I meant he wasnt getting bell cow snaps like he is supposedly going to get. Idk what his snap percentage was but it will most certainly go up since he was in a near 50/50 time share thus raising his odds of getting an extra catch or two a game. Even though it's just a catch anything helps when a guy is only getting 15 on a season. I shoulda used the word snaps not touches.

In the three December games in which he took over the majority of RB snaps, Henry was targeted exactly once for one reception in each game.

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

In the three December games in which he took over the majority of RB snaps, Henry was targeted exactly once for one reception in each game.

 

Yes they were also up early every game but the colts. So they passed less in general however you are right, just because Henry will get more snaps doesnt mean he will get more catches but it almost certainly wont go down. 

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5 hours ago, MetsSox said:

They still have Lewis who is more adept at pass catching. Don't know why they would just eliminate him.

 

No one is saying he'll disappear. He'll get lots of third downs. Henry can get 30 targets and leave a ton for Lewis. 

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

Fair enough.  I’d be more inclined to believe that if the coaches had said anything to the effect that they would try to incorporate Henry more in the passing game this year.  Everything I’ve read suggests they are basically going to run the same scheme they ran down the stretch last season.

 

Article from June 

 

 

https://atozsportsnashville.com/tennessee-titans-five-things-know-offense-training-camp/

 

  • Derrick Henry Working Screens

We’ll know precious little about the effectiveness of Tennessee’s run game under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith until we see it on the field. What we do know is that, when the media has been allowed out at practice, there has been an emphasis on his use in the screen game.

Henry, also in a contract year, needs to improve his versatility as a back if he is to be a legitimate option for the Titans moving forward. If he can’t be split out wide in offensive formations, a proven way to get him involved in the passing game is the use of screens. Smith and head coach Mike Vrabel understand the value of what Henry can do once he builds momentum. Screens help mitigate the defensive pass rush, give the quarterback an easy access completion and allow Henry a little more space to get moving and make plays.

Running mate Dion Lewis was second on the team behind Corey Davis in both targets (67) and catches (59). Henry does not need to match those numbers but he certainly needs to be looked at and relied upon for more than the 15 catches on 18 targets he had in 2018.

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56 minutes ago, BMcP said:

In the three December games in which he took over the majority of RB snaps, Henry was targeted exactly once for one reception in each game.

 

So what you are saying is that he was catching everything that was thrown his way? No drops?

 

Interesting.

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Better than the alternative, I suppose, if you’re banking on an uptick in receptions.

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14 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

So what you are saying is that he was catching everything that was thrown his way? No drops?

 

Interesting.

Are we celebrating the fact that he caught three passes in three weeks?!

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Holy schnikeys!

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7 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I'm 90% sure he has more 60+ yard runs than any RB in the NFL over the last 2 seasons.

 

7 hours ago, BMcP said:

I also have no idea which site charts most runs by a RB over 60 yards in the last two seasons.  Sounds awfully specific.

Turns out Saquon also has 3 in the past 2 years:

Date    Tm    Opp    Quarter    Time    Down    ToGo    Detail
06/12/2018    Titans    Jaguars    2    07:25    1    10    Derrick Henry middle for 99 yards, touchdown
09/12/2018    Giants    Redskins    2    08:54    1    10    Saquon Barkley right guard for 78 yards, touchdown
03/12/2017    Titans    Texans    4    00:57    3    5    Derrick Henry left end for 75 yards, touchdown. Penalty on Ben Jones: Taunting, 15 yards
16/10/2017    Titans    Colts    4    01:01    3    5    Derrick Henry left end for 72 yards, touchdown
09/09/2018    Giants    Jaguars    4    10:51    2    3    Saquon Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, touchdown
30/12/2018    Giants    Cowboys    3    04:22    2    20    Saquon Barkley right tackle for 68 yards (tackle by Jeff Heath)
 

 

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Let's also widen the parameters a bit. For instance, let's take runs over 40 yards in the past 3 years (given that Derrick Henry was drafted in 2016):

image.png.68088c5e8bea5efcb4287ba2f871425c.png

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10 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Turns out Saquon also has 3 in the past 2 years:

Date    Tm    Opp    Quarter    Time    Down    ToGo    Detail
06/12/2018    Titans    Jaguars    2    07:25    1    10    Derrick Henry middle for 99 yards, touchdown
09/12/2018    Giants    Redskins    2    08:54    1    10    Saquon Barkley right guard for 78 yards, touchdown
03/12/2017    Titans    Texans    4    00:57    3    5    Derrick Henry left end for 75 yards, touchdown. Penalty on Ben Jones: Taunting, 15 yards
16/10/2017    Titans    Colts    4    01:01    3    5    Derrick Henry left end for 72 yards, touchdown
09/09/2018    Giants    Jaguars    4    10:51    2    3    Saquon Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, touchdown
30/12/2018    Giants    Cowboys    3    04:22    2    20    Saquon Barkley right tackle for 68 yards (tackle by Jeff Heath)
 

 

 

It's crazy to think about how many Henry would have if he got fed like saquon. 

 

Henry also had a 60 yd TD run against Miami in the 1st game last year called back due to a phantom holding penalty

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Let's also widen the parameters a bit. For instance, let's take runs over 40 yards in the past 3 years (given that Derrick Henry was drafted in 2016):

image.png.68088c5e8bea5efcb4287ba2f871425c.png

 

Nice chart but the point I'm trying to get at is how Henry, like Barkley, has the ability for these explosive plays of 60+ yards for a TD. These are amazing for fantasy and it goes without saying how impressive it is that Henry does it fairly often for a guy who doesn't get near the workload of the other big names on that list.

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11 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

t's crazy to think about how many Henry would have if he got fed like saquon. 

There's only one thing wrong with that narrative: Henry has had almost twice as many rushes in his career as Saquon.

image.png.7535dd413a5e803d53e5a4d84f2e4d2e.png

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14 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Let's also widen the parameters a bit. For instance, let's take runs over 40 yards in the past 3 years (given that Derrick Henry was drafted in 2016):

image.png.68088c5e8bea5efcb4287ba2f871425c.png

I’m not sure what to make if this stat.  Some pretty average names on there.  Could it be that the lesser backs saw so many unstacked boxes that they had enough opportunities to get some longer  runs?  

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

There's only one thing wrong with that narrative: Henry has had almost twice as many rushes in his career as Saquon.

image.png.7535dd413a5e803d53e5a4d84f2e4d2e.png

 

I am well aware of that. Thank you.

 

Barkley gets his carries in bunches though, multiple games of 20 carries a game. Henry does not. I think it's harder to come in and do, for a guy Henrys size, playing a sporadic role as opposed to being a workhorse RB like Barkley. I believe that Henry would have even more of these explosive plays if he was given a commensurate type workload to Barkley's. Henry, since high school, has notoriously worn defenses out by pounding them all game and then breaking their backs in the 4th quarter, it's part of his game and what can be so appetizing from a fantasy perspective for a guy like Henry, huge chunk gains in the 3rd and specifically 4th quarters with a chance for a 60+ yd TD at any given moment. In 2017, playing a part time role behind the ghost of Demarco Murray nobody had more 4th quarter production than Henry except for the leagues leading rusher, Kareem Hunt.

 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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26 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Henry, since high school, has notoriously worn defenses out by pounding them all game and then breaking their backs in the 4th quarter, it's part of his game and what can be so appetizing from a fantasy perspective for a guy like Henry, huge chunk gains in the 3rd and specifically 4th quarters with a chance for a 60+ yd TD at any given moment.

Actually, he has his highest yardage per rush in the 2nd quarter.

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26 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I am well aware of that. Thank you.

 

Barkley gets his carries in bunches though, multiple games of 20 carries a game. Henry does not. I think it's harder to come in and do, for a guy Henrys size, playing a sporadic role as opposed to being a workhorse RB like Barkley. I believe that Henry would have even more of these explosive plays if he was given a commensurate type workload to Barkley's. Henry, since high school, has notoriously worn defenses out by pounding them all game and then breaking their backs in the 4th quarter, it's part of his game and what can be so appetizing from a fantasy perspective for a guy like Henry, huge chunk gains in the 3rd and specifically 4th quarters with a chance for a 60+ yd TD at any given moment. In 2017, playing a part time role behind the ghost of Demarco Murray nobody had more 4th quarter production than Henry except for the leagues leading rusher, Kareem Hunt.

 

 

And we know what happened to Hunt.  I don’t want Henry to start kicking women.  

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