DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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37 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I’m not sure what to make if this stat.  Some pretty average names on there.  Could it be that the lesser backs saw so many unstacked boxes that they had enough opportunities to get some longer  runs?  

All these stats are fairly meaningless. What you say is possible; some bad teams get pushed back more in their own 20, giving more opportunity for longer runs; having a #1 WR threat on your team is probably a factor.

The names on this list are generally good, but as you say, it's a bit funny list. Kamara had only 2 such runs, Gurley only one; Adrian Peterson had 3 over this period, but they were all in 2018.

I wouldn't take it too seriously.

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11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

All these stats are fairly meaningless. What you say is possible; some bad teams get pushed back more in their own 20, giving more opportunity for longer runs; having a #1 WR threat on your team is probably a factor.

The names on this list are generally good, but as you say, it's a bit funny list. Kamara had only 2 such runs, Gurley only one; Adrian Peterson had 3 over this period, but they were all in 2018.

I wouldn't take it too seriously.

Exactly.  The “number of runs over 60/40 yards” stat really doesn’t mean much at all.  If you want to examine “explosive plays,” that would probably be far more relevant to a discussion of a player’s actual future fantasy value.

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Exactly.  The “number of runs over 60/40 yards” stat really doesn’t mean much at all.  If you want to examine “explosive plays,” that would probably be far more relevant to a discussion of a player’s actual future fantasy value.

 

It matters to me because in fantasy football leagues that I play in when a guy runs for a 60yd TD that is 6 points for yardage and 6 points for a TD. That's 12 fantasy points off 1 play. If a guy has a proven ability to rip these off any given moment via a screen or a rush it just another added benefit and accumulating them over time shows it is more due to skill than just blind luck.

 

That's the kind of upside I want. The 40 yard runs I don't care about in this context because that is only 4 fantasy points. An explosive play to me is one of 60 yards or more and the icing on that cake is a 60+ yard play through the air or on the ground that goes for a TD. That is 12 fantasy points or more on 1 play. Give Henry consistent touches and he will make those in addition to his normal stats. It shows how high his ceiling is. Just like what he did to the Jags last year's in the game you claim they just gave up. Gave up cause Henry dominated them that game and the majority of his time in the NFL.

Think about how crazy people go when Tyreke Hill pops a 60+yd catch for a TD. Those are explosive plays with icing on the cake and can lead to some of the biggest fantasy days. Similar to Henry and Barkley. That's the correlation I'm trying to make about the explosive play ability.

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Posted (edited)

And he has rewarded you three times since the year 2016 in that regard.  Look, I’m not claiming that 60+-yard runs aren’t helpful in fantasy.  Of course they are.  I’m just saying they are so rare as to qualify as somewhat fluky. Nor do I agree with the logic that “more carries = more 60+-yard runs.”  As you yourself have argued, Henry tends to do his best work when defenses are tired at the end of games/seasons whereas he is well rested.

Edited by BMcP

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11 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Just like what he did to the Jags last year's in the game you claim they just gave up. Gave up cause Henry dominated them that game and the majority of his time in the NFL.

Yeah.  I’m hardly the only one making that particular claim.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/12/07/derrick-henry-ran-into-record-books-thursday-night-jags-atrocious-defense-provided-an-assist/%3foutputType=amp

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10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Nice article but the 99 yard run happened early in the game. Had the Jags defense given up before the game even started? 

 

If so, I could understand that. Henry has dominated the Jags during his time in the nfl

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Nice article but the 99 yard run happened early in the game. Had the Jags defense given up before the game even started? 

 

If so, I could understand that. Henry has dominated the Jags during his time in the nfl

Maybe?  What do I know?  But anyone who watched that particular game who is even casually familiar with the game of football would readily understand the JAX D was not giving their customary effort.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Maybe?  What do I know?  But anyone who watched that particular game who is even casually familiar with the game of football would readily understand the JAX D was not giving their customary effort.

 

Would it have mattered? Henry is 5-1 vs Jax in his career, the only game he lost to them was as a rookie and he only had 6 touches that game.  Maybe Jax was tired of facing him? Either way it's a lazy argument to say the defenders gave up. Did the defenders give up in games Adrian Peterson went for over 200 yards?

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Would it have mattered? Henry is 5-1 vs Jax in his career, the only game he lost to them was as a rookie and he only had 6 touches that game.  Maybe Jax was tired of facing him? Either way it's a lazy argument to say the defenders gave up. Did the defenders give up in games Adrian Peterson went for over 200 yards?

“Lazy argument”?  It’s not an argument.  It’s just an observation - one shared by many reputable reporters and followers of the game.  I’m talking about that one particular game - only because you insinuated I was making a baseless “claim.”

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Just now, BMcP said:

“Lazy argument”?  It’s not an argument.  It’s just an observation - one shared by many reputable reporters and followers of the game.  I’m talking about that one particular game - only because you insinuated I was making a baseless “claim.”

 

I watched the same game and plenty of other reporters wrote articles to fit their narrative as well. Just pointing out that was your opinion. I can say that any WR or RB who went over 200 yards in a game the defense just gave up trying to deal with them or to get back at their front office. 

 

Jags celebrated keeping Henry out of the end zone for his 5th TD. If they had given up why not just let him walk in the end zone? Guess they didn't want their pride squashed more than Henry already had.

 

Check out this play, Vikings totally gave up, I don't think they even showed up to play. Nothing against the RB but could those arm tackle attempts been any more lazy?

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I watched the same game and plenty of other reporters wrote articles to fit their narrative as well. Just pointing out that was your opinion.

 

You’re right. It was my opinion, one shared by many.  Just as it is your opinion that the JAX D was playing their hearts out in that game, but just fell short against the greatest running back who ever lived.  To each his own, I suppose.

(NB: I can’t say whether a reporter for the Washington Post has some sort of secret anti-Derrick Henry agenda, btw.  He might.)

Edited by BMcP

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The Touchdown Wire’s Barry Werner recently released an article with one positive prediction for each of the 32 NFL teams, and an even better year for Henry is what he sees in the Titans’ near future.

 

 

Werner believes Henry will come close to 1,250 rushing yards by the time the Titans finish their last contest of the season.

“Derrick Henry rushed for 1,059 yards in 2018,” he wrote. “A lot of that came against Jacksonville when he broke loose, including a 99-yard run. The prediction here is Henry gets more carries and nears the 1,250-yard mark.”

Under newly promoted offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Titans have prioritized continuity, which should include the team building off a run game Henry greatly solidified as he gained momentum around the time period of last year’s final meeting with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If Henry can continue to capitalize upon his recent successes, his numbers should match Werner’s predictions, and the Titans’ offense will become force to be reckoned with in 2019.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/titanswire.usatoday.com/2019/07/20/how-many-yards-will-titans-rb-derrick-henry-rush-for-in-2019/amp/

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13 minutes ago, BMcP said:

You’re right. It was my opinion, one shared by many.  Just as it is your opinion that the JAX D was playing their hearts out in that game, but just fell short against the greatest running back who ever lived.  To each his own, I suppose.

(NB: I can’t say whether a reporter for the Washington Post has some sort of secret anti-Derrick Henry agenda, btw.  He might.)

 

Guess we will never know. I don't trust anything the Washington Post prints but to each their own.

 

That was last year anyway. That 50 point fantasy game for Henry is in the past but with as many 60+ TD plays Henry is capable of I am sure we will see fantasy games like that from Henry again soon.

🍻

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Guess we will never know. I don't trust anything the Washington Post prints but to each their own.

 

That was last year anyway. That 50 point fantasy game for Henry is in the past but with as many 60+ TD plays Henry is capable of I am sure we will see fantasy games like that from Henry again soon.

🍻

Honestly, I just hope (and trust) that you started him for that game and your boy carried you to fantasy glory last season.

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Pro Football Focus did a list of nine running backs who they project to rush for over 900 yards this season, and Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry was on the list.

Henry, who totaled more than half of that (585 yards) yard count in his last four games of 2018, is primed to have a big year if he can get the consistent carries he lacked at the start of last season.

And Pro Footbal Focus’ Austin Gayleagrees, saying he thinks Henry is in for “quite the year.”

Henry’s late-season surge should throw him into the driver’s seat of the Titans’ rushing attack, which, with maintained efficiency from last year, should lead to quite the year for the former ‘Bama standout. He finished the year ranked third in rushing grade (87.9) among the 51 NFL backs with 100-plus attempts in 2019. He also finished sixth in forced missed tackles per attempt (0.21) and second in yards after contact per attempt (4.2) among the same group of backs. He is currently projected to rush for 1,006.4 yards and 8.1 touchdowns in 2019.

 

Henry had to share carries with fellow back Dion Lewis for much of last year, and as a result he got off to a slow start. Despite that, Henry finished as the highest-graded back in the second half of 2018, per PFF.

 

- The Alabama product isn’t just some bruiser, he’s also a big-play threat every time he touches the ball. Henry has three touchdown runs of 72 yards or more in the last two seasons. One of those was a Week 14 bulldozing of the Jacksonville Jaguars that resulted in a 99-yard score.

 

- Even stacked boxes haven’t stopped Henry, though. The big back owned the 10th-highest grade in that regard during his third year in the NFL, per PFF.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/titansized.com/2019/07/13/derrick-henry-projected-quite-year/amp/

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So, did he finish sixth in forced missed tackles per attempt or first?  Make up your minds, PFF!

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

So, did he finish sixth in forced missed tackles per attempt or first?  Make up your minds, PFF!

 

I could be wrong, am a lot, however, isn't forced missed tackles and broken tackles 2 different stats?

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Maybe?  What do I know?  But anyone who watched that particular game who is even casually familiar with the game of football would readily understand the JAX D was not giving their customary effort.

100%

I think this is one of those stats where you’d actually need to watch the game film to determine it’s value.  On at least 1 (I think both) of those long Chubb TD were through huge gaps where several RBs would have done the same thing.  Same with one of the Crowell runs (or maybe it was Powell).   The point being that there are too many variables just to look at the stats alone.  Any RB given the right situation can break one of these.  See Lamar Millers 99 yard TD from last year.

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2 minutes ago, K197040 said:

100%

I think this is one of those stats where you’d actually need to watch the game film to determine it’s value.  On at least 1 (I think both) of those long Chubb TD were through huge gaps where several RBs would have done the same thing.  Same with one of the Crowell runs (or maybe it was Powell).   The point being that there are too many variables just to look at the stats alone.  Any RB given the right situation can break one of these.  See Lamar Millers 99 yard TD from last year.

 

How about 3 of those runs for 60+ yards and a TD and 1 screen for 60yds and a TD and a phantom holding call against Miami last year to negate another 60 yard TD run. 

 

That's 4 in the last 2 years. That's the definition of a home run threat from anywhere on the field.

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6 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

How about 3 of those runs for 60+ yards and a TD and 1 screen for 60yds and a TD and a phantom holding call against Miami last year to negate another 60 yard TD run. 

 

That's 4 in the last 2 years. That's the definition of a home run threat from anywhere on the field.

 

Idk.  I’ll have to go back and watch my Derek Henry highlight tapes.  I’m sure they’re around here somewhere.

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Just now, K197040 said:

 

Idk.  I’ll have to go back and watch my Derek Henry highlight tapes.  I’m sure they’re around here somewhere.

 

Allow me:

 

Either Henry is one of the luckiest RBs in the NFL or he is pretty good at the game breaking type of plays and to think he has never had over 215 carries in a season.

Henry has 391 rushes over the past 2 seasons and has 3 of those were for 60+ yard TDs and 1 as a screen. That's 4 of them in 392 touches. That's about 1 per 100 touches. I just can't help but think he could do that even more often if give more consistent opportunity. These explosive plays are in addition to all the other fantasy points he would score that game, that's what I look forward to seeing more of as he gets more consistent touches instead of swapping series and choppy useage per week.

 

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50 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I could be wrong, am a lot, however, isn't forced missed tackles and broken tackles 2 different stats?

I can’t imagine they are different 

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I could be wrong, am a lot, however, isn't forced missed tackles and broken tackles 2 different stats?

 

Yea I think one is like laying a juke on a defender or a studded step and getting the corner and the broken tackle is actually being touched and shedding the tackler. However i could be wrong as well. 

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Posted (edited)

Taylor lewan PED suspension for 4 games 

@DerrickHenrysCleats please spin this for me to make me feel better about drafting him. 

Edited by Stonej14

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16 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Taylor lewan PED suspension for 4 games 

@DerrickHenrysCleats please spin this for me to make me feel better about drafting him. 

 

When he returns from suspension he should be hella strong 

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