DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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A truly sad day for the Derrick Henry thread.  😥

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34 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Taylor lewan PED suspension for 4 games 

@DerrickHenrysCleats please spin this for me to make me feel better about drafting him. 

 

Well, that ain't good news

Have to see if they sign someone or what happens. Obviously not  ideal.

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Well, that ain't good news

Have to see if they sign someone or what happens. Obviously not  ideal.

Here's a scary stat:

image.png.919aa9e05b7a462d282d3bff7b88c552.png

So without Lewan on the field, Henry has 0 big yardage gains.

Hmmmmm.

Edited by K197040
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I've taken the time to graph the above out.  Sometimes is easier to understand something visually.

image.png.aafbb42992ec9cf937b0c27b36b74d73.png

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(this is in jest, mostly)

What's to worry?  His ADP will just slip a bit now and you can get him as a bargain RB2!   First four weeks are Cleveland, Indy, Jax, and Atlanta.   Two bottom 10 run defenses plus the opponent he absolutely trucked last year!   He got this.    

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36 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I've taken the time to graph the above out.  Sometimes is easier to understand something visually.

image.png.aafbb42992ec9cf937b0c27b36b74d73.png

 

I guess I should put an asterisk by all the above research.   I didn't really check the game films of those big runs.  I just checked to see if Lewan started in the games.

I'm sure Cleats is furiously going through the highlights as I type. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I guess I should put an asterisk by all the above research.   I didn't really check the game films of those big runs.  I just checked to see if Lewan started in the games.

I'm sure Cleats is furiously going through the highlights as I type. 

 

I'm good, not ruffling through to dispute. Lewan is a legit LT.

 

I guess the only saving Grace is that they could move Jack Conklin or Dennis Kelly to LT, Kelly did a good job taking over for Conklin at RT last year. Could keep Kelly at RT and move Conklin to LT, run blocking is easier than pass blocking so if anything it means even more rushing attempts for Henry. Titans did not pick up the 5th year option on Jack Conklin so he is playing for his next contract, maybe he comes out at LT and plays hard knowing he needs to put good tape on film for a future contract?

 

Anyway, Titans brought in all pro LG Roger Saffold so hopefully they lean more heavily on him as they wait for Lewan to return. I don't think this dings his season long value that much.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I'm good, not ruffling through to dispute. Lewan is a legit LT.

 

I guess the only saving Grace is that they could move Jack Conklin or Dennis Kelly to LT, Kelly did a good job taking over for Conklin at RT last year. Could keep Kelly at RT and move Conklin to LT, run blocking is easier than pass blocking so if anything it means even more rushing attempts for Henry. Titans did not pick up the 5th year option on Jack Conklin so he is playing for his next contract, maybe he comes out at LT and plays hard knowing he needs to put good tape on film for a future contract?

 

Anyway, Titans brought in all pro LG Roger Saffold so hopefully they lean more heavily on him as they wait for Lewan to return. I don't think this dings his season long value that much.

 

In reality, it doesn't change where I'd take him.   And I've come to accept that I might have to at the 3/4 turn if I go WR/WR. 

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22 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I'm good, not ruffling through to dispute. Lewan is a legit LT.

 

I guess the only saving Grace is that they could move Jack Conklin or Dennis Kelly to LT, Kelly did a good job taking over for Conklin at RT last year. Could keep Kelly at RT and move Conklin to LT, run blocking is easier than pass blocking so if anything it means even more rushing attempts for Henry. Titans did not pick up the 5th year option on Jack Conklin so he is playing for his next contract, maybe he comes out at LT and plays hard knowing he needs to put good tape on film for a future contract?

 

Anyway, Titans brought in all pro LG Roger Saffold so hopefully they lean more heavily on him as they wait for Lewan to return. I don't think this dings his season long value that much.

It isn't as easy to move from RT to LT. Regardless of the run blocking or pass blocking. Habits are formed for a guy only playing RT where he would have to do everything differently and opposite at LT.

Dennis Kelly is a decent swing tackle I think. Big V is available for trade from the Eagles as well, I'm sure.

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I always laugh when he fires off that bow 

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Interestingly, Mariota has never started a game without Lewan at LT.  I wonder how he will fare.

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51 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Interestingly, Mariota has never started a game without Lewan at LT.  I wonder how he will fare.

 

Probably ok if they hand off to Henry 45 times 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Probably ok if they hand off to Henry 45 times 

It’s probably going to be a losing strategy to rush the ball 45 times against the likes of the Browns, Colts and Falcons offenses.

Edited by BMcP

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

It’s probably going to be a losing strategy to rush the ball 45 times against the likes of the Browns, Colts and Falcons offenses.

 

Worked ok for the ravens last year agaisnt the browns, Falcons, chargers and oh so close to working against the chiefs. However I know they're two completely different teams with different styles and defenses. I was just taking a shameless dig at Mariota.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

It’s probably going to be a losing strategy to rush the ball 45 times against the likes of the Browns, Colts and Falcons offenses.

 

It wouldn't be a good idea to try and keep the Browns, Colts, and Falcons offense off the field as long as possible?

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

It’s probably going to be a losing strategy to rush the ball 45 times against the likes of the Browns, Colts and Falcons offenses.

It sounds like a very novel defensive strategy to me, but on the other hand, very exciting. Would they bring in a second ball, or does it require a high fumble rate from the other side? ;)

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40 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

It sounds like a very novel defensive strategy to me, but on the other hand, very exciting. Would they bring in a second ball, or does it require a high fumble rate from the other side? ;)

I’m honestly confused about what was confusing there?  A team with a weak offense and defense needing to score through the air against potent offenses?

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It wouldn't be a good idea to try and keep the Browns, Colts, and Falcons offense off the field as long as possible?

Yes, if you have a Ravens 2018 defense.  Not so much the current Titans defense down two of their best OLBs for the last several years.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’m honestly confused about what was confusing there?  A team with a weak offense and defense needing to score through the air against potent offenses?

 

I was being facetious. I think most teams rush against a D, not against an O.

If you meant they rush to keep the O off the field as long as possible, that's absolutely fine of course (and correct), but in my mind I was being quite hilarious with my comment

😎

Edited by Boudewijn
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1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

 

I was being facetious. I think most teams rush against a D, not against an O.

If you meant they rush to keep the O off the field as long as possible, that's absolutely fine of course (and correct), but in my mind I was being quite hilarious with my comment

😎

I got you, man.  Yes, I was just referencing that they are going to need to do some passing to stay in the game against such lightning-strike offenses.

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Yes, if you have a Ravens 2018 defense.  Not so much the current Titans defense down two of their best OLBs for the last several years.

 

Jayon Brown was outstanding last year, rashaan Evans graded as one of the better LBers over the 2nd half of the season last year after a slow start.

LB RASHAAN EVANS, TENNESSEE TITANS 

OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 1-9: 46.2
OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 10-17: 83.2

Evans turned it on late in the season for Tennessee, earning three single-game grades above 83.0 in the final five-game stretch. He also thrived against the run for most of his 2018 campaign, as he finished the year with an impressive 72.5 run-defense grade after a rocky start to the season.

 

 

Titans just inked Kevin byard to a deal making him the highest paid safety in the NFL. 

 

Malcolm Butler came on strong last season

 

CB MALCOLM BUTLER, TENNESSEE TITANS

OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 1-9: 51.9
OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 10-17: 80.2

To put it mildly, things did not go well for Malcolm Butler in the first half of the season. He registered a shockingly low coverage grade of 53.4 and allowed over 100 yards receiving three times in Weeks 1-9. Fortunately for Tennessee, Butler reminded them exactly why they coveted him in free agency by finishing the season with an 83.1 coverage grade over their final eight games. His passer rating allowed fell from an astronomical 141.8 in the first half of the season to just 40.4 in the second half, and his 2.31 yards allowed per coverage snap fell to 0.66.

 

 

https://www.pffstaging.com/news/pro-biggest-improvements-over-the-second-half-of-the-season

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24 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Jayon Brown was outstanding last year, rashaan Evans graded as one of the better LBers over the 2nd half of the season last year after a slow start.

LB RASHAAN EVANS, TENNESSEE TITANS 

OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 1-9: 46.2
OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 10-17: 83.2

Evans turned it on late in the season for Tennessee, earning three single-game grades above 83.0 in the final five-game stretch. He also thrived against the run for most of his 2018 campaign, as he finished the year with an impressive 72.5 run-defense grade after a rocky start to the season.

 

 

Titans just inked Kevin byard to a deal making him the highest paid safety in the NFL. 

 

Malcolm Butler came on strong last season

 

CB MALCOLM BUTLER, TENNESSEE TITANS

OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 1-9: 51.9
OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 10-17: 80.2

To put it mildly, things did not go well for Malcolm Butler in the first half of the season. He registered a shockingly low coverage grade of 53.4 and allowed over 100 yards receiving three times in Weeks 1-9. Fortunately for Tennessee, Butler reminded them exactly why they coveted him in free agency by finishing the season with an 83.1 coverage grade over their final eight games. His passer rating allowed fell from an astronomical 141.8 in the first half of the season to just 40.4 in the second half, and his 2.31 yards allowed per coverage snap fell to 0.66.

 

 

https://www.pffstaging.com/news/pro-biggest-improvements-over-the-second-half-of-the-season

Lots of defenders - and offenders - did well down the stretch from Week 13 on against teams who had thrown in the towel.  You should expect them to have dramatically improved their performance.  The Titans still have a relatively sub-par defense.  If they don’t throw, they won’t stay in games.

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9 hours ago, BMcP said:

Lots of defenders - and offenders - did well down the stretch from Week 13 on against teams who had thrown in the towel.  You should expect them to have dramatically improved their performance.  The Titans still have a relatively sub-par defense.  If they don’t throw, they won’t stay in games.

 

https://titansized.com/2019/07/22/five-final-thoughts-tennessee-titans-defense-camp/amp/2/

 

 

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Gotta fade Henry a bit on this news.  I was torn between him and Fournette but this makes the decision for me.  The first month of the year is so pivotal for fantasy football, imperative to get out to a good start.  You can't just replace an All-Pro Left Tackle.  One of Henry's big selling points was that the run blocking was finally at full strength this year.  Defenses are fresher at the start of the year, and Henry always takes some time to get up to speed -- in runs, in games, in seasons, and apparently in his career.  I'm still a believer this year and I'm not hitting the panic button but I can't ignore this move either.

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