DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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42 minutes ago, dashoe said:

When you think about it,  Alex Collins was pushed up hard to the 3rd round last season by his truthers and it was assumed he would get no passing work so there should be no reason that DH doesnt get taken in the same round if the blogs pump him up

I wanted absolutely nothing to do with Collins this year, but your point is well taken. I'd consider Henry to be a considerably better (and less risky) gamble than Collins was this year.

40 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

Luckily, this time around we'll know the Lewis handcuff isn't such a priority. ...just fill the rest of your RB core elsewhere.

 

*happy to have him rostered in Dynasty, but in re-draft I'm not sure where he should be slotted.

If Lewis remains the COP back and they don't draft another, that bodes VERY well for Henry's outlook next year. I think people got a little caught up in the one good year Lewis had (while in NE). That was an anomaly. The guy is an average COP back, nothing more.

 

In redraft I'd put him in the 25-30 range, assuming half PPR.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

We are all entitled to our opinions. That is what I think. 

 

I'm glad you like watching Henry play, I really enjoy it too and if his useage from the fantasy playoffs carries over into 2019 well then he very well could be elite. If they started passing to him even a little bit that could raise his floor. If they brought in a competent QB to play with him his game could be elevated. All options are on the table and with the way he ended 2019 it is not far fetched to see Henry going in the last first or 2nd round. I don't think Vrabel and LaFleur will make the same early season mistakes they made last year.

 

I'd love to hear your opinion if it is something different.

I don’t particularly disagree with the premise of your statement. The problem is it’s detached from your claim of where he should be drafted. RBs that have shown flashes and have potential yet have a lot of questions marks go in the 4th. At least that’s where they should fall. We see every year this stuff happen. Henry is another late season boom that will likely go in the second round. My issue here isn’t with Henry. It’s with RBs coming on late and getting vaulted into the second round if not first. Then 50%+ bust and people are surprised. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

I don’t particularly disagree with the premise of your statement. The problem is it’s detached from your claim of where he should be drafted. RBs that have shown flashes and have potential yet have a lot of questions marks go in the 4th. At least that’s where they should fall. We see every year this stuff happen. Henry is another late season boom that will likely go in the second round. My issue here isn’t with Henry. It’s with RBs coming on late and getting vaulted into the second round if not first. Then 50%+ bust and people are surprised. 

 

I don't get all that surprised when players bust. It is the nature of fantasy football.

 

I don't disagree with the premise that RBs with question marks should be taken around round 4 but we all have our own opinions. I am a believer in Henrys talent and I think his coaches and teammates are starting to come around to the same idea. Sometimes in fantasy a leap of faith can pay big dividends and sometimes it fails miserably. That's the fun of the game in my opinion. He could be a reach in early 2nd round but what if he plays like weeks 13-17 for the whole season next year? You would be laughing you way to a championship and a early 2nd round ADP would not sound ridiculous, would almost be cheap. There will almost always be "safer" options than Henry in the early 2nd round but I like thinking outside the box a little bit and everyone has seen Henry at his best, the idea of getting that on a weekly basis is drool worthy. All fantasy is a little bit of a leap of faith. This head coach, that OC doesn't mesh well with that player, etc... etc... I think the last part of the season and off-season is showing us a renewed confidence in Henry from the HC and OC who will both be returning for Tennessee with the DC as well. That kind of continuity should do nothing but help Henry going forward. A little bit of a risk to take him early 2nd? Maybe. The Reward if it works out? Immortality in the fantasy community and Trophy's.

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Posted (edited)

Not trolling, serious question because I'm genuinely curious. I know Henry is a monster and once he gets up to speed is as fast as anyone, so basic physics tells us at that point he's essentially a train. But I feel like he takes some time to build up that speed/power. Do we have any gifs/vids of him trucking someone? 

Edited by BGDDYKWL
Sp

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6 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

All fantasy is a little bit of a leap of faith.

No, not to me. To me fantasy is a careful weighing of risk and reward. 

 

And I measure both in scenarios. Yes, there is a scenario where Henry gets 100/2 every game, and there are also scenarios where he doesn't. When I price him, I take all of those into account.

 

You're a fan, and that's great. I just want to win my league, and hype and hope have no place in that.

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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

No, not to me. To me fantasy is a careful weighing of risk and reward. 

 

And I measure both in scenarios. Yes, there is a scenario where Henry gets 100/2 every game, and there are also scenarios where he doesn't. When I price him, I take all of those into account.

 

You're a fan, and that's great. I just want to win my league, and hype and hope have no place in that.

 

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. That's what makes fantasy sports great. There can be more than 1 path to a championship. I hope you way works really good for you.

 

With coaching turnover, FA additions, teams change, who was good last year might not be good this year. An argument can be made for and against Henry being taken late 1st or early to mid 2nd and an argument can be made for him to go in the 4th and 5th.

 

It's pretty simple really. Everyone sees Henrys talent. If you think the beginning of 2018 is what Henry will be like next season then DND.

 

If you think the way Henry ended 2018 is what he will be like next season take Henry late 1st or early to mid second.

 

If you think Henry will be up and down all season like a roller coaster then drop him to the 6th round and consider for a flex spot.

 

If you think Henry gains some consistency across the whole season and adds a few pass receptions to help boost his floor then take him in the 3rd round.

 

It really boils down to what you think about Henry as a player, his coaches, how you think the team will utilize him on offense. We all saw his first half of the season where he was terrible. We also saw his weeks 13-17 where he was the best fantasy RB on the planet. Million dollar question is how will the coaches feel about Henry entering Henrys contract year? More committed to him? Willing to throw him a handful of passes? Maybe more than 2 games this season with more than 20 carries? Will the OLine be healthy to start the season? 

 

 

A man wiser than me once told me when 2 people disagree on something the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. If I say late 1st to early to mid 2nd round and you say 4th round maybe all the way to 5th round I think his true ADP will settle around the 3rd round range, which would be pretty fair.

 

 

 

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I will only draft him if he has Eddie George talking to him via earpiece.

 

In all seriousness, the assumption of rational coaching(Bloom) is a dangerous thing.

 

Sometimes I feel like coaches are saving their battering rams from wear early, to the point where they aren’t featured until late in the season.

 

We’ve seen it with Henry, I believe we are seeing it with Jordan Howard, we’ve seen it with Blount in his prime, we’ve even seen it to a degree with Lynch.

 

I need to see and hear some real evidence of increased usage, and yeah, Henry’s attitude about how he plays needs to stay where it is, not regress, in order for me to buy in.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

If I say late 1st to early to mid 2nd round and you say 4th round maybe all the way to 5th round I think his true ADP will settle around the 3rd round range, which would be pretty fair.

Yeah can't argue with that (except that I haven't got a clue where to draft him so far).

 

Let me add that as a football fan, obviously I want Henry to do well. To see him bulldoze through lines for 200+/4 is mental stuff, whatever team you support. I don't expect him to ever repeat that, but to know he has it in him, is fantastic.

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I am not going to get caught up in what he did in the fantasy playoffs. I will not consider drafting him unless he falls to the 4th/5th round in standard.  

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Posted (edited)

While I’m impressed at how Henry finished the season, for purposes of 2019, it’s hard to overlook the fact that, entering Week 14, he’d yet to even rush for 60 yards in a game.  Paired with virtually no usage in the passing game, that would give me pause using a first-second-round pick on him in any PPR format.  His two monster games came in a homecoming game against an eliminated JAX D who looked so awful it seemed like they were trying to send a tacit message of some kind to their coaches or the FO, and against NYG the following week, who just had an awful defense all-around all season and were likewise playing just for pride.  It would be fun to see Henry break out next season, but it’s important to look at the entire picture objectively.  He appears, similar to say, AP, to be extremely game-script dependent at this point.

Edited by BMcP

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Posted (edited)
On 1/4/2019 at 10:55 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I'm not sure what you mean about me being toast. I'm here to discuss Henry one way or the other.

 

Henry showed the kind of RB he is capable of being. I'm sure Eddie George's words of encouragement helped pull Derrick Henry through a tough time but I think Henry was probably more just frustrated with his role on the team having brought on Dion Lewis, barely giving Henry double digit touches in a game, oline had bad injuries. He never complained but I think he was frustrated and maybe that was showing some in his game. Eddie helped get him fired up and just told him bluntly he was on the trading block. All things came together. Oline got healthy. Backup RG behind Conklin started to play really well, coaches committed to Henry more and Henry started producing better, Im sure Eddie's words helped motivate Henry but it was the coaches committing to him more than when they just had a lead that led to his break out.

 

All that combined with a contract year, wanting to get paid and hopefully starting the season with a more consistent workload he should be able to have a more consistent season.

 

I'll be here to discuss Henry whether he meets my numbers, exceeds them, or falls short of them and I like a little jelly with my toast 

Their oline was awful all year. Delanie Walker was missed tons because he didnt just catch balls, he actually played a huge role in run blocking, plus it didnt help that their pro bowl RT never recovered from his injury last season. Titans are going to draft some guards, their guard play is pathetic.

Edited by cashvillesent

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15 hours ago, cashvillesent said:

Their oline was awful all year. Delanie Walker was missed tons because he didnt just catch balls, he actually played a huge role in run blocking, plus it didnt help that their pro bowl RT never recovered from his injury last season. Titans are going to draft some guards, their guard play is pathetic.

 

The Titans finished the season with the ninth-best offensive line in the NFL, according to PFF.  

 

But yes, their guard play took a step backward this year.

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On 1/5/2019 at 11:15 AM, BMcP said:

While I’m impressed at how Henry finished the season, for purposes of 2019, it’s hard to overlook the fact that, entering Week 14, he’d yet to even rush for 60 yards in a game.  Paired with virtually no usage in the passing game, that would give me pause using a first-second-round pick on him in any PPR format.  His two monster games came in a homecoming game against an eliminated JAX D who looked so awful it seemed like they were trying to send a tacit message of some kind to their coaches or the FO, and against NYG the following week, who just had an awful defense all-around all season and were likewise playing just for pride.  It would be fun to see Henry break out next season, but it’s important to look at the entire picture objectively.  He appears, similar to say, AP, to be extremely game-script dependent at this point.

I would take him around pick 40 or so which means there is no way i'll own him. RBs that don't get receptions are very risky as it is in the modern game. When you factor in lack of usage, inability to display consistent play, and just flat out bad play for extended stretches it makes it extremely hard to see Henry anywhere near RB1. To put up RB1 numbers he needs a team with a good offense that is also committed to the run. Or at least a team that is extremely committed to the run.

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8 hours ago, BMcP said:

 

The Titans finished the season with the ninth-best offensive line in the NFL, according to PFF.  

 

But yes, their guard play took a step backward this year.

Stats are weird sometimes. I've watched all Titans games this year and their oline looked awful besides Lewan and Kelly. Mariota was hit alot

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Packers are "zeroing in on" Titans OC Matt LaFleur for their head-coaching job.

 

 

 

He's GB Head Coach

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2 minutes ago, youngrice said:

He's GB Head Coach

Just have lafluer call plays between the 20s and hand the reigns to someone else in the red zone. Anytime I was watching TEN it looked like they brainfarted all the time in the red zone

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Adios LaFleur

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12 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Just have lafluer call plays between the 20s and hand the reigns to someone else in the red zone. Anytime I was watching TEN it looked like they brainfarted all the time in the red zone

 

That’s bad news considering virtually all of Henry’s value came from GL runs

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15 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Just have lafluer call plays between the 20s and hand the reigns to someone else in the red zone. Anytime I was watching TEN it looked like they brainfarted all the time in the red zone

Well that should be easy now.  Rodgers will audible out of any play he doesn't like.

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Wonder who Vrabel will go with as OC.

 

His short list last year was Ryan Day (Ohio State Head Coach) and Matt LaFleur (Now Green Bay Head Coach)

 

Not sure who Vrabel will look at this time around.

 

I hope it's somebody willing to pass the ball to Derrick Henry occasionally.

 

 

 

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A guy the Titans were initially looking at as HC, now gone as OC.  Another year with yet another scheme for Henry, Mariota, etc., to learn and assimilate on the fly.  I’m steering far away from Henry in upcoming drafts.

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

A guy the Titans were initially looking at as HC, now gone as OC.  Another year with yet another scheme for Henry, Mariota, etc., to learn and assimilate on the fly.  I’m steering far away from Henry in upcoming drafts.

 

I'll do the opposite and see where we end up. Should be a fun ride either way.

 

Vrabel has a good eye for coordinators so far. I'll reserve judgement till we see which way he goes with this hire.

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I'll do the opposite and see where we end up. Should be a fun ride either way.

 

Vrabel has a good eye for coordinators so far. I'll reserve judgement till we see which way he goes with this hire.

 

I have to hand it to you, DHC: you have developed a much-more even-keel attitude towards your guy over this past year.  It’s a pleasure!

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31 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I'll do the opposite and see where we end up. Should be a fun ride either way.

 

Vrabel has a good eye for coordinators so far. I'll reserve judgement till we see which way he goes with this hire.

I dont know if I like this DHC...Wheres the passion?!?

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