DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2019 Outlook

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47 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It is a contract year for Henry so let's hope he runs like a man trying to get paid big buck$$$$$

NFL players don't really perform better in contract years.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

NFL players don't really perform better in contract years.

True, but hopefully this gives him another reason to prove he is a legit RB1

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16: 92

17: 124

18: 187

Standard fantasy output year over year.  I'll put him over 200 next year.  That's low-end RB1 territory.

Why will he continue to trend up?  Because he finally beat out Lewis and the volume questions go away.  He's the guy.  This is a run-first-and-play-defense team.  They know it now.  He may still start slow but it won't be as slow because he's past one of the biggest issues that made him start slow in the first place.  He's beaten out all his competition.  Murray left and Lewis is exposed.

 

Funny, I projected him for 189 points in 2018.  I was 2 points off.

Projection: 1050+8 Rushing on 240 carries, 280+2 Receiving on 45 targets.

Actual: 1060+12 rushing on 215 carries, 99+0 receiving on 18 targets.

 

2019 projections:

Lewis in the past, he'll get more carries.

Give him 1,100+10 rushing on 240 carries (15 per game), but give him 220+2 receiving, and there's your 200 points.

 

They just NEED to give him even TWO doggone targets a game. 

He only got one per game this past year.  So dumb.  He's a monster in the screen game, or on a play action throwback.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

16: 92

17: 124

18: 187

Standard fantasy output year over year.  I'll put him over 200 next year.  That's low-end RB1 territory.

Why will he continue to trend up?  Because he finally beat out Lewis and the volume questions go away.  He's the guy.  This is a run-first-and-play-defense team.  They know it now.  He may still start slow but it won't be as slow because he's past one of the biggest issues that made him start slow in the first place.  He's beaten out all his competition.  Murray left and Lewis is exposed.

 

Funny, I projected him for 189 points in 2018.  I was 2 points off.

Projection: 1050+8 Rushing on 240 carries, 280+2 Receiving on 45 targets.

Actual: 1060+12 rushing on 215 carries, 99+0 receiving on 18 targets.

 

2019 projections:

Lewis in the past, he'll get more carries.

Give him 1,100+10 rushing on 240 carries (15 per game), but give him 220+2 receiving, and there's your 200 points.

 

They just NEED to give him even TWO doggone targets a game. 

He only got one per game this past year.  So dumb.  He's a monster in the screen game, or on a play action throwback.

 

LaFleur at one point had him lined up at WR split out wide against the Redskins and they sent Preston Brown over to cover him. Henry beat him off the line and ran a straight go route and Preston Brown had no prayer but of course they didn't throw him the ball.

 

It's a shame they don't try to incorporate him at all in the passing game. Maybe Art Smith will start doing that but I'll believe that when I see it, he is so devastating in open space though I don't see how you don't want to exploit that.

 

Can't argue with any of your points since your 2018 prediction was mostly on the money.

 

I'm hoping for closer to 16-18 rushes per game but 15 is fair to guesstimate. 

 

If they ever got him involved in the passing game he would reach the coveted top 5 RB status.

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Maybe Smith can hit up his former fellow cast member Tom Hanks for some tips on how to run this offense.

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On 1/28/2019 at 12:10 PM, Gohawks said:

NFL players don't really perform better in contract years.

 

This doesn't seem true. Source?

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2 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

This doesn't seem true. Source?

I just read up on an article from chris Harris in 2015 that goes into it a little bit, there isn't enough evidence to suggest this is a trend is basically what the conclusion was.

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"I think year-to-year variance in fantasy performance correlates much more closely to things like age, experience and coaches' trust, to say nothing of health and raw ability. While the numbers I've reported here may indicate a gentle upward drift in the average performance of good players in contract years, there are way too many players whose performances drop off to proclaim any kind of real victory. Thus "he's going into a contract year" is just another one of those things people say when they're trying to bamboozle you with a litany of reasons they like 2015 impending free agents like T.Y. Hilton, Alfred Morris, Philip Rivers, Lamar Miller and many others. And I'm not saying you shouldn't like those players. I'm just saying the reason you like them shouldn't be their contract status."

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

Doesn't seem like much data to draw that conclusion from. 

Ok then, find an article that supports your view and present it. 

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31 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

This study involves NBA/MLB players.

 

Those are other sports.

Edited by dmb3684

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

 

Article makes it sound 50/50.

 

Depends on the player and how badly he either wants to be great or wants to get paid. 

 

Article says 3 QBs did better in contract years to 2 that didnt.

 

It would be more apropos to judge these situations on each individual player and his particular drive and or motivation more than a blanket statement like players don't usually perform better in a contract year.

 

I only said Henry could do better in a contract year cause when Eddie George told him about trade rumors this year that really helped motivate Henry for the 2nd half of the season. Maybe it matters maybe it doesn't. It's just another interesting aside to the precursor of Henrys 2019 season.

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i think the situation of him finally  being the lead rb in a run first offense would be the incentive to perform at a top level? but....i could be wrong?

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10 hours ago, not an nfl scout said:

i think the situation of him finally  being the lead rb in a run first offense would be the incentive to perform at a top level? but....i could be wrong?

 

You are not wrong.

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If Derrick Henry is ever going to break out, 2019 will be the year. An historic ending to 2018, coaches renewed enthusiasm and commitment to the run game with Henry as the clear lead back, all conveniently coinciding in a contract year for Henry.

 

As a DH owner, the potential for disappointment is vastly overmatched by the potential upside. If he reverts back to 2.2 ypc so be it, this is a risk well worth taking.

 

 

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

 

When he says "And we are taking another step with him hopefully" I hope he is talking about a few catches out of the backfield for the big fella. Keep the defenses honest and let him rumble on a few screen passes. Certainly would help all those plays that get blown up in the backfield cause the defense has to respect the threat of a screen or dump-off.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

When he says "And we are taking another step with him hopefully" I hope he is talking about a few catches out of the backfield for the big fella. Keep the defenses honest and let him rumble on a few screen passes. Certainly would help all those plays that get blown up in the backfield cause the defense has to respect the threat of a screen or dump-off.

 

Exactly, it seems so sensible. If they faked the handoff to Henry and then lobbed it to him over the incoming stacked box a few times it would likely result in significantly fewer stacked boxes, and/or Henry steamrolling over frightened DBs for long gains. 

 

Burn ‘em a couple times like that and the resulting split second of hesitation/indecision from the defense could allow Henry that extra step in the backfield to build up his combination of locomotive power and speed on run plays that woud otherwise get blown up. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Exactly, it seems so sensible. If they faked the handoff to Henry and then lobbed it to him over the incoming stacked box a few times it would likely result in significantly fewer stacked boxes, and/or Henry steamrolling over frightened DBs for long gains. 

 

Burn ‘em a couple times like that and the resulting split second of hesitation/indecision from the defense could allow Henry that extra step in the backfield to build up his combination of locomotive power and speed on run plays that woud otherwise get blown up. 

 

 

aahahhhahah yeeesssss

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22 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

When he says "And we are taking another step with him hopefully" I hope he is talking about a few catches out of the backfield for the big fella. Keep the defenses honest and let him rumble on a few screen passes. Certainly would help all those plays that get blown up in the backfield cause the defense has to respect the threat of a screen or dump-off.

 

That’s certainly possible - but I’d feel better about that prospect if they’d targeted him more than a total of five times in those five games Smith mentioned, and they appear to be preserving the same system and terminology.  

 

Keep a sharp lookout for any coaches mentioning his expected pass-catching role - and what the plans are for Lewis, which I don’t believe anyone’s commented on yet.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Keep a sharp lookout for any coaches mentioning his expected pass-catching role

 

Eh.  Henry got the talk last year.  Jordan Howard even moreso got a ton of hype about "three down player", "catching 200 balls from the JUG machine a day", blah blah blah.  I've learned to tune this coach speak out.  

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