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joebaker23

Joe Mixon 2019 Outlook

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Big bounce back season for Smokin Joe Mixon this past season, taking the league by storm and becoming the AFC’s leading rusher. Mixon’s ADP is something I am strongly monitoring over the next few months before draft season hits. Wondering what are the thoughts on his upcoming 2019 campaign.

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Sounds slightly crazy, but I think he finishes as a top 5 RB next year. He can catch and he can run with power. Zac Taylor being the coach most likely for the Bengals means we could see a dynamic back in Mixon. His knee can be a concern, but the Bengals took a cautious approach with it and got it fixed up. He is worth the risk for trading for or even selecting at the back end of round 1 right now, but they do need need to fix the offense up a little bit.

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1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Sounds slightly crazy, but I think he finishes as a top 5 RB next year. He can catch and he can run with power. Zac Taylor being the coach most likely for the Bengals means we could see a dynamic back in Mixon. His knee can be a concern, but the Bengals took a cautious approach with it and got it fixed up. He is worth the risk for trading for or even selecting at the back end of round 1 right now, but they do need need to fix the offense up a little bit.

 

If every RB who posters think will finish as a top 5 RB actually finished as a top 5 RB, we’d have about a dozen top 5 RBs. We’d probably have about 20 top 10 backs, too. Lol. 

 

I like Mixon, but I don’t see him as a top 5 guy. I don’t see him breaking in past Gurley, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Saquon...barring an injury to 1-2 of them.Then throw Bell back into the mix next year if he lands in a good spot. 

 

What remains to be seen is what the new HC and OC will do with Mixon. That makes it a little harder to judge. 

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Mixon in 13 games had 1168 rushing yards and 43 catches for 296 with 9 total touchdowns. He is only 22/23 which is also great. He finished 10th in standard ppr leagues. If he had those 2 extra games I think he would've finished around 7 or 8th maybe even 6th around Conner. The gap was minimal from 8th up to 6th. 4.5 points was the gap, but from 6th to 5th it was 49. AJ Green coming back and maybe the bengals can get a healthy TE and Lineman and he could have that big boom potential.

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Mixon was held back by a coaching staff that would mysteriously pull him on important series or not include him more in the passing game.

if this new coaching staff  can get out of his way he could easily be an elite rb this season for the price of a 2nd round pick. 

 

He is one of the reasons I would probably pick a wr like hopkins/adams early then grab mixon as my rb1 or u can  grab a gurley-barkley-kamara-cmc-zeke and then mixon falls to u on the next pick u can grab a bunch of mid tiers wr's or a top TE to build ur roster with

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Gio is UFA this year I think.  Could be gone. Plus a new coach trying to make a name, Cincy may ride Mixon like a rented mule.  Add OL and throw to him more and top 5 isn't out of the question. 

 

One thing I don't like tho is a new OC yet again. 2018 was Lazor's second year and first year of a new system risks a bumpy ride. 

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1 hour ago, FavreCo said:

I would assume Zac Taylor will use him like the Rams used Gurley.

I don't think it can get any worse than the play-calling last season with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

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22 minutes ago, devaster said:

I don't think it can get any worse than the play-calling last season with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

pretty much. Plus having dalton and green back will help him. Im hoping he has more chances for catches as well. I am buying into him next year being a top 5 back.

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14 hours ago, FavreCo said:

I would assume Zac Taylor will use him like the Rams used Gurley.

 

12 hours ago, devaster said:

I don't think it can get any worse than the play-calling last season with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

 

12 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

pretty much. 

 

Let me stop you all before this gets any more out of control than it already is.

 

 

1. Bill Lazor called plays.  Marvin Lewis did not touch play calling.  I don't know who was responsible for sending Gio in on passing downs, that might be the only thing Lewis had control over, but I'd bet even that was Lazor or the RB coach.

 

 

2. His offense was good.  Recall AJG went out in Week 9.  Dalton went out in Week 12.  Weeks 1 through 8:

 

W 34-31 at Indy

W 34-23 v Baltimore

L 21-31 at Carolina

W 37-36 at Atlanta

W 27-17 v Miami

L 21-28 v Pittsburgh

L 10-45 at KC

W 37-34 v TB

 

5-3.  Three losses at Carolina, v PITT, and at KC).  27.6 points per game, which would have been the 5th best offense in 2018.  Granted that all offense slows down as the season goes on, and that Cincy probably wouldn't have ended there...  But even after losing the starting quarterback and WR1 for half the year they finished as the 17th highest scoring offense anyways.

 

 

3. The Rams had the best OL in football.  The Bengals have Glenn and Price who both appear to be injury prone.  Taylor can try to use Mixon like the Rams used Gurley.  Or maybe he uses Mixon like Matt Lafleur -- the last hyped up McVay apprentice -- used Derrick Henry in Tennessee.  We don't know and we can't make assumptions.  

 

---

 

Bill Lazor had an established offense that worked well and though they could've thrown to Mixon more they pounded him with rushing volume and Lazor got more out of the running game than the sub-par offensive line rightfully should have allowed.  Even when Dalton and AJG went down, Mixon sustained.

 

Now Andy Dalton's onto his 3rd offensive system in as many years.  Historical evidence shows that new systems generally (but not always) don't take off until Year 2.  It also shows that McVay assistants aren't really anything like Sean McVay.  In fact McVay may not even be like McVay anymore now that the Bears and Pats have depantsed him and his scheme.  

 

This is a dumb, desperate hire and the odds are that the Bengals are as sad as they were in 2018.  The Bengals need a better leader and they need a better defensive coordinator.  They got a young offensive coach who's never even called plays, let alone lead an entire locker room of grown men.

 

I'm not panicking on Mixon cuz he's a stud RB who should still get workhorse volume.  I doubt the offense is in scoring position as often as it was in 2018 though, and that is not good for his outlook.

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

 

 

Let me stop you all before this gets any more out of control than it already is.

 

 

1. Bill Lazor called plays.  Marvin Lewis did not touch play calling.  I don't know who was responsible for sending Gio in on passing downs, that might be the only thing Lewis had control over, but I'd bet even that was Lazor or the RB coach.

 

 

2. His offense was good.  Recall AJG went out in Week 9.  Dalton went out in Week 12.  Weeks 1 through 8:

 

W 34-31 at Indy

W 34-23 v Baltimore

L 21-31 at Carolina

W 37-36 at Atlanta

W 27-17 v Miami

L 21-28 v Pittsburgh

L 10-45 at KC

W 37-34 v TB

 

5-3.  Three losses at Carolina, v PITT, and at KC).  27.6 points per game, which would have been the 5th best offense in 2018.  Granted that all offense slows down as the season goes on, and that Cincy probably wouldn't have ended there...  But even after losing the starting quarterback and WR1 for half the year they finished as the 17th highest scoring offense anyways.

 

 

3. The Rams had the best OL in football.  The Bengals have Glenn and Price who both appear to be injury prone.  Taylor can try to use Mixon like the Rams used Gurley.  Or maybe he uses Mixon like Matt Lafleur -- the last hyped up McVay apprentice -- used Derrick Henry in Tennessee.  We don't know and we can't make assumptions.  

 

---

 

Bill Lazor had an established offense that worked well and though they could've thrown to Mixon more they pounded him with rushing volume and Lazor got more out of the running game than the sub-par offensive line rightfully should have allowed.  Even when Dalton and AJG went down, Mixon sustained.

 

Now Andy Dalton's onto his 3rd offensive system in as many years.  Historical evidence shows that new systems generally (but not always) don't take off until Year 2.  It also shows that McVay assistants aren't really anything like Sean McVay.  In fact McVay may not even be like McVay anymore now that the Bears and Pats have depantsed him and his scheme.  

 

This is a dumb, desperate hire and the odds are that the Bengals are as sad as they were in 2018.  The Bengals need a better leader and they need a better defensive coordinator.  They got a young offensive coach who's never even called plays, let alone lead an entire locker room of grown men.

 

I'm not panicking on Mixon cuz he's a stud RB who should still get workhorse volume.  I doubt the offense is in scoring position as often as it was in 2018 though, and that is not good for his outlook.

Good points. Though, if Gio walks and Mixon takes on a Gurley-esque role, his overall fantasy numbers would go up even if his TDs regressed a couple, especially in ppr. 

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30 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Good points. Though, if Gio walks and Mixon takes on a Gurley-esque role, his overall fantasy numbers would go up even if his TDs regressed a couple, especially in ppr. 

 

I agree.  There's upside for more receptions for Mixon -- a lot more, if they force the issue -- and that would be good for his outlook.

 

Couple points on that, though.  1) This is an assumption, or a hope.  There's no way to know, and so I don't think it would be wise to just bank on it when projecting volume or making a 1st round selection.  2) I still just wanted to address the headwinds his outlook was facing, which other posters seemed to think were actually positive factors for his outlook.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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