Corleone

Antonio Brown 2019 Outlook

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Here we go for one of the more polarizing players headed into 2019 drafts...Antonio Brown.

 

Without getting into the drama around AB for the time being, one thing I do know is that AB has done things on the football field that no other WR has previously done. In 2013, he had his first 100-catch season. And since then, over the past 6 seasons, he's had the best consecutive 6-year stretch of ANY WR ever, in terms of producing the most catches and the most receiving yards (as documented in the 2018 AB thread).

 

Now I do not think AB is the best WR of all time (that honor goes to Jerry Rice, who I believe will always remain as the GOAT). But the production that AB has put up compared to all other WR's in each of their best consecutive 6-year spans, is unparalleled, even if it does come in a pass-friendly time (that AB leads over peers as is). I mention that because it is clear we are talking about one of the all-time WR greats as far as AB goes, leading into the next point...

 

Here are the stats for (arguably) the top 10 WR's to play across the past 40 seasons, as well as AB, during their age 30 season:
 

**Age 30**

--Jerry Rice: 84 catches - 1201 yards - 10 TD

--Randy Moss: 98 catches - 1493 yards - 23 TD

--Marvin Harrison: 143 catches - 1722 yards - 11 TD

--Calvin Johnson: 88 catches - 1214 yards - 9 TD

--Cris Carter: 122 catches - 1371 yards - 17 TD

--Steve Largent: 74 catches - 1164 yards - 12 TD

--Terrell Owens: 80 catches - 1102 yards - 9 TD

--Tim Brown: 90 catches - 1104 yards - 9 TD

--Larry Fitzgerald: 82 catches - 954 yards - 10 TD

--Isaac Bruce: 79 catches - 1075 yards - 7 TD

Average: 94 catches - 1240 yards - 12 TD

(which comes out to a season of 290 FP's for 1 point PPR without any bonuses; that would be #3 for WR's in 2017, and #9 for WR's in 2018)

**AB topped the above average, with 104 catches - 1297 yards - 15 TD - 323.70 FP's**

 

I believe from the actual stats, we can say that the elite WR's are still able to perform extremely well at age 30. The top 10 WR's all did so, and so did AB at age 30 in 2018. But what about the future beyond 30? 
brown.jpg?w=1000&h=600&crop=1

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Posted (edited)

Here are the numbers for the top 10 WR's all-time in the immediate seasons after age 30. AB will be playing 2019 at age 31 (he turns 31 in July 2019)...

 

**Age 31**

--Jerry Rice: 98 catches - 1503 yards - 15 TD

--Randy Moss: 69 catches - 1008 yards - 11 TD

--Marvin Harrison: 94 catches - 1272 yards - 10 TD

--Reggie Wayne: 100 catches - 1264 yards - 10 TD (I subbed him in for Calvin, who voluntarily retired after his age 30 season)

--Cris Carter: 96 catches - 1163 yards - 10 TD

--Steve Largent: 79 catches - 1287 yards - 6 TD

--Terrell Owens: 77 catches - 1200 yards - 14 TD

--Tim Brown: 104 catches - 1408 yards - 5 TD

--Larry Fitzgerald: 63 catches - 784 yards - 2 TD

--Isaac Bruce: 69 catches - 981 yards - 5 TD

Average: 85 catches - 1187 yards - 9 TD

(which comes out to a season of 257.70 FP's for 1 point PPR without any bonuses; that would be #7 for WR's in 2017, and #13 for WR's in 2018)

(Fitzgerald's poor season really brought this average down, as he had just 153 FP's)

 

**Age 32**

--Jerry Rice: 112 catches - 1499 yards - 13 TD

--Randy Moss: 83 catches - 1264 yards - 13 TD

--Marvin Harrison: 86 catches - 1113 yards - 15 TD

--Reggie Wayne: 111 catches - 1355 yards - 6 TD (I subbed him in for Calvin, who voluntarily retired after his age 30 season)

--Cris Carter: 89 catches - 1069 yards - 13 TD

--Steve Largent: 70 catches - 1070 yards - 9 TD

--Terrell Owens: 47 catches - 763 yards - 6 TD (suspended for 9 games for team insubordination)

--Tim Brown: 81 catches - 1012 yards - 9 TD

--Larry Fitzgerald: 109 catches - 1215 yards - 9 TD

--Isaac Bruce: 89 catches - 1292 yards - 6 TD

Average: 88 catches - 1165 yards - 10 TD...despite TO's 9-game suspension

(which comes out to a season of 264.50 FP's for 1 point PPR without any bonuses; that would be #4 for WR's in 2017, and #12 for WR's in 2018)

 

So in summary...

Age 30 Average: 94 catches - 1240 yards - 12 TD (and AB at age 30 in 2018: 104 catches - 1297 yards - 15 TD)

Age 31 Average: 85 catches - 1187 yards - 9 TD

Age 32 Average: 88 catches - 1165 yards - 10 TD

 

My take is that you can be down on AB for the drama/diva behavior/insubordination if you choose. I won't disagree with that at all. And it is certainly possible that all of that will lead to a decline in his stats. It could even lead to a trade (though that's perhaps more unlikely because of the salary cap hit PIT would take).

 

But I would disagree with those that say AB is doomed to decline just because of age. The top WR's of the past 40 years show you can still play at an elite level at age 30, 31 & 32. And remember, this Top 10 put their stats up in eras less pass-friendly & pass-happy than the era we're in today. 

Edited by Corleone
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So, at least 2 more seasons of production? Can he produce beyond age 32?

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As an extra bonus, here is age 33 as well, even though AB wouldn't be playing at this age until 2021...

 

**Age 33**

--Jerry Rice: 122 catches - 1848 yards - 15 TD

--Randy Moss: 28 catches - 393 yards - 5 TD

--Marvin Harrison: 82 catches - 1146 yards - 12 TD

--Reggie Wayne: 75 catches - 960 yards - 4 TD (I subbed him in for Calvin, who voluntarily retired after his age 30 season)

--Cris Carter: 78 catches - 1011 yards - 12 TD

--Steve Largent: 58 catches - 912 yards - 8 TD (during the '87 strike season that cost him 3 games; his stats were per game better than above at Age 32)

--Terrell Owens: 85 catches - 1180 yards - 13 TD 

--Tim Brown: 90 catches - 1344 yards - 6 TD

--Larry Fitzgerald: 107 catches - 1023 yards - 6 TD

--Isaac Bruce: 36 catches - 525 yards - 3 TD (only played 11 games)

Average: 76 catches - 1034 yards - 8.4 TD

(which comes out to a season of 230 FP's for 1 point PPR without any bonuses)

 

So it took until Age 33 for the average of the "Elite Top 10 WR's of the Past 40 Years" to fall out of WR1 territory, though that's mainly because Randy Moss fell off a cliff. He retired after his Age 33 season, came back a year later, and then retired for good. Isaac Bruce also really hurt the average, though he came back with a 1000+ yard season at Age 34. And the 3 games missed by Largent because of a strike impacts the totals as well. 

 

Also of note...Jerry Rice had the most FP's of his career at Age 33. 

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6 minutes ago, devaster said:

So, at least 2 more seasons of production? Can he produce beyond age 32?

 

Just posted right above this :) 

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Would be interesting to see the numbers for when players begin to fall off a cliff. Players that were productive for long stretches that all of a sudden drop way down in an age 30+ season or retire.

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8 minutes ago, devaster said:

Would be interesting to see the numbers for when players begin to fall off a cliff. Players that were productive for long stretches that all of a sudden drop way down in an age 30+ season or retire.

 

For the Top 10 WR's mentioned above, below are their ages at their decline, where they never came back to have a big season.

Some of them had decent-enough seasons at or after the ages below, but this is essentially when they were done as useful fantasy options...

 

Age 33: Moss

Age 34: Largent

Age 35: Harrison, Wayne, Bruce, Fitzgerald in 2018

Age 36: Carter, T.Brown

Age 37: Owens (he retired after having had a fine season - 983 yards & 9 TD's)

Age 41: Rice (all the more remarkable because he had what should have been a season-ending injury at Age 35 in Week 1, came back for Week 15 and scored a TD, and then kept going for several more seasons)

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14 minutes ago, devaster said:

Would be interesting to see the numbers for when players begin to fall off a cliff. Players that were productive for long stretches that all of a sudden drop way down in an age 30+ season or retire.

 

Check out Torrey Holt and Chad Johnson. 

 

Just nose dived. 

 

Different players than AB tho...

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1 minute ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Check out Torrey Holt and Chad Johnson. 

 

Just nose dived. 

 

Different players than AB tho...

 

Agreed. That is one reason why I found it interesting to look at the very best (Top 10) WR's, as I place AB into that group, and it can be useful to see how long the elites were able to last. 

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While it's waaaay to early to write any declaration in stone, IF Brown is traded I will not spend the same draft capital on him I would if he were still in Pitt.

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23 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

While it's waaaay to early to write any declaration in stone, IF Brown is traded I will not spend the same draft capital on him I would if he were still in Pitt.

Can we really expect the same production he's gotten the past 6 years in Pitt if he's traded? Huge discount or I'm not touching this guy.

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How many of these guys were on the same teams from 30+?

 

Or were some of these done post 30 going from one team to another.

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

 

Agreed. That is one reason why I found it interesting to look at the very best (Top 10) WR's, as I place AB into that group, and it can be useful to see how long the elites were able to last. 

It's not about how long they "last" but how long they are top shelf.   

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2 hours ago, Corleone said:

Here we go for one of the more polarizing players headed into 2019 drafts...Antonio Brown.

 

Without getting into the drama around AB for the time being, one thing I do know is that AB has done things on the football field that no other WR has previously done. In 2013, he had his first 100-catch season. And since then, over the past 6 seasons, he's had the best consecutive 6-year stretch of ANY WR ever, in terms of producing the most catches and the most receiving yards.

brown.jpg?w=1000&h=600&crop=1

FWIW...Julio has more yards than AB over the past 5 seasons...just say'n

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30 minutes ago, psygolf said:

FWIW...Julio has more yards than AB over the past 5 seasons...just say'n

Phew, good thing he said the previous SIX seasons. Why do you gotta keep trolling Corleone?

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52 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Phew, good thing he said the previous SIX seasons. Why do you gotta keep trolling Corleone?

Because I do not get points for last year's production in my league.

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4 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Phew, good thing he said the previous SIX seasons. Why do you gotta keep trolling Corleone?

 

One has to be a really, really, really sad soul to be an Internet troll. But alas, that's what we're dealing with here.

 

 

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4 hours ago, psygolf said:

FWIW...Julio has more yards than AB over the past 5 seasons...just say'n


And AB has had more PPG in every one of those 5 seasons...just say'n.

And since you completely changed the topic and went to 5 seasons, AB has more TD's and catches in that timespan than Julio. In fact, from 2014--2018 (the last 5 seasons), AB has 1694.6 FP's and Julio has 1509.4 FP's.

 

3 hours ago, psygolf said:

Because I do not get points for last year's production in my league.


But if you played in the year 2018 (the one that just ended), you had more PPG from AB than Julio.

The same in 2017. The same in 2016. The same in 2015. The same in 2014.

The last 5 seasons.

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Excellent data.  Excellent post.  Much Mahalo for the time u spent gathering this.  Made me much for comfortable as a Julio owner.  

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:


And AB has had more PPG in every one of those 5 seasons...just say'n.

I thought you posted that you weren't going to project numbers based on games played-?

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

 

One has to be a really, really, really sad soul to be an Internet troll. But alas, that's what we're dealing with here.

 

 

It's interesting how you started the thread calling him one of the most polarizing players for 2019...then call any stat which I submit that is incongruent with your belief a trolling effort.   I have not posted anything false.

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According to Bleacher Report this morning, the Steelers are looking to trade Brown before start of free agency and are asking “for a lot” in return. Any potential destinations?

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2 hours ago, joebaker23 said:

According to Bleacher Report this morning, the Steelers are looking to trade Brown before start of free agency and are asking “for a lot” in return. Any potential destinations?

 

Just like they were going to "trade" bell? how did that work out for them? :lol:

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37 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Just like they were going to "trade" bell? how did that work out for them? :lol:

Receiver is at least a much more valuable position with better career longevity.

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8 hours ago, joebaker23 said:

According to Bleacher Report this morning, the Steelers are looking to trade Brown before start of free agency and are asking “for a lot” in return. Any potential destinations?

He'll end up like Bell...a discontent Steeler.  Nobody will pay Pittsburgh's (or AB's) price

 

...whether he decides to suit up depends on the man himself.

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