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Antonio Brown 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

Recent developments in AB's employment status, along with the continued inability of some users to keep their comments within the site guidelines, have forced us to lock this thread yet again.  If circumstances warrant, we will reopen.

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14 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Pitt should just cut him and move on. This whole situation is one giant distraction for the organization. 

 

Here is an excerpt from: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/antonio-brown-explaining-steelers-options-2019-offseason/v6clnf5f6znh19vc6y8145sgb 

breaking down what affect cutting/releasing Brown would have on the Steelers overall salary cap situation:

 

"How much will the Steelers save by cutting Antonio Brown?

If Brown is cut, the Steelers will need to account for at least $21.12 million on the salary cap.

This dead money is from a $19 million signing bonus paid to Brown in 2017, plus a $12.96 million salary conversion paid to Brown in 2018 that was intended to help the Steelers with their salary cap. The $19 million was prorated over five years, and the $12.96 million over four years. Both have three years of proration remaining, and the Steelers need to account for all of it regardless of whether Brown is on the team next year.

If Brown is released, the team will save $1.045 million in cap room. At least $495,000 of that would be offset by whomever takes his place on the roster, so the effective cap savings are nil.

In terms of cash, the Steelers would save $15.2 million by releasing Brown in March. From a salary cap perspective, though, this is money that would be saved for the future.

AB-chart-011019

As the above chart illustrates, the Steelers would save $15.125 million by cutting Brown now rather than in 2020, and $26.425 million by cutting him now rather than in 2021.

This type of analysis makes sense for an underperforming/declining player. If a team has an 80 percent chance of cutting a player in 2020, it might as well just do it now even if it looks bad on the cap.

Brown isn’t that type of player, though. The odds of Brown being cut for football reasons in 2020 are not good, so there is no need to accelerate the process; he is worth the contract he is being paid.

If the Steelers cut Brown, it will be because they think there is irreparable damage between the WR and the organization; they would not give it a shot in 2019 only to cut him in 2020. The Steelers are either in or out."

 

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Mr. Big Chest has moved into the Ochocinco phase of his career.  A great talent, someone will tolerate him, but he's started to go mad.  Time's running out.

 

Why is it that only wide receivers ever turn into real housewives of New Jersey?

Ochocinco's play declined quite a bit when teams started to not tolerate him any more. And he couldn't learn the Patriots' playbook or get on the same page with Brady.

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AB:

"I quit on my last team.  Now gimme guaranteed money!"

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Nice pic.  But the more AB talks, the more he proves that he's gone nuts.  Now we are to believe that Rooney agreed today that it is time for both to move on?   Uh...no.

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7 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Nice pic.  But the more AB talks, the more he proves that he's gone nuts.  Now we are to believe that Rooney agreed today that it is time for both to move on?   Uh...no.

Rooney spoke publicly weeks ago hinting that was the direction the team was moving in.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

Rooney spoke publicly weeks ago hinting that was the direction the team was moving in.

True, but admitting it reduces the Steelers trade leverage to zero.  AB wants to be released and to have a fat new contract with more guaranteed money, which may be why he keeps trying to tank his trade value.  But I just do not see that happening.  The Steelers will retain his rights and try to get something for Brown in return.

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

True, but admitting it reduces the Steelers trade leverage to zero.  AB wants to be released and to have a fat new contract with more guaranteed money, which may be why he keeps trying to tank his trade value.  But I just do not see that happening.  The Steelers will retain his rights and try to get something for Brown in return.

I don't see how it reduces their leverage to zero. The team still has him under contract for 3 seasons. And any team trading for him gets him locked up for 3 seasons at a minimum. There is plenty of incentive. Especially at the average salary for the remaining 3 seasons of about $12.5mil/season.

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

I don't see how it reduces their leverage to zero. The team still has him under contract for 3 seasons. And any team trading for him gets him locked up for 3 seasons at a minimum. There is plenty of incentive. Especially at the average salary for the remaining 3 seasons of about $12.5mil/season.

If you think teams are beating down the Steelers door to trade for Antonio Brown right now because he is perceived as such a good bargain, you do not understand the team sport of football very well.

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If you think teams are beating down the Steelers door to trade for Antonio Brown right now because he is perceived as such a good bargain, you do not understand the team sport of football very well.

Veiled insult and failed to explain your stance at all. :blink:

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Take two:  No team in their right mind would trade anything of value for Brown right now.  He's acting crazy, and trying to force his way off of his old team because he wants a huge new contract.  In light of that stated position, the current reasonable? contract is largely irrelevant.  Leaving aside that Brown is scaring teams off with his bonkers behavior.

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19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Take two:  No team in their right mind would trade anything of value for Brown right now.  He's acting crazy, and trying to force his way off of his old team because he wants a huge new contract.  In light of that stated position, the current reasonable? contract is largely irrelevant.  Leaving aside that Brown is scaring teams off with his bonkers behavior.

 

Agree with this, its like the guy is going out of his way to sabotage his reputation.  I'm fairly certain the Niners would have paid a significant price for Brown, but I wouldn't be shocked if they've completely moved on.  Brown's baggage makes Odell Beckham look like an alter boy by comparison.

 

The latest by Brown about a guaranteed contract are just icing on the cake, and sets the foundation for him being disgruntled wherever he lands.  Who is his agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports? Guy is being horribly misled.

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2 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Agree with this, its like the guy is going out of his way to sabotage his reputation.  I'm fairly certain the Niners would have paid a significant price for Brown, but I wouldn't be shocked if they've completely moved on.  Brown's baggage makes Odell Beckham look like an alter boy by comparison.

 

The latest by Brown about a guaranteed contract are just icing on the cake, and sets the foundation for him being disgruntled wherever he lands.  Who is his agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports? Guy is being horribly misled.

I think Brown has a good agent, Drew Rosenhaus.  But it seems unlikely that Brown is listening to his agent these days.

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Come September when he's making huge plays no one is gonna be saying "that team shouldn't have traded for him".

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His current level of madness is still far too minimal to scare NFL GM’s off from signing him.

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As a Pittsburgher I'm still baffled how this all timed up to the tee for Bell and Brown to go...it's pretty frustrating tbh

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35 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

As a Pittsburgher I'm still baffled how this all timed up to the tee for Bell and Brown to go...it's pretty frustrating tbh

Well neither have gone, yet.

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So assuming Brown does indeed leave PIT, are there any realistic landing spots that absolutely tank his fantasy value? - not saying that he will be as productive as he was in PIT but is there a situation where you would no way rank in your top 10 fantasy WR. 

NYJ have the cap space and I worry about any team's offense that's being coached by Gase, so I'd say NYJ for sure.

TEN, BUF or DET would not be good either.

Probably ARI although the volume in the passing offense should be there with Kingsbury and it's not out of the question that Rosen makes a big year 2 improvement.

I'd still rate him top 10 in OAK.  Gruden would scheme to get him the ball and Carr is good enough to support a top 10 fantasy WR.

IND, SF, HOU or GB would all be good spots and 3 of those teams (SF excluded) are in win now mode.

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top-10 in Oakland? I don't know about that. Amari would disappear for long stretches, even with Gruden. Carr is a problem. Maybe AB would get after Carr and force Carr to feed him though. Amari comes across less confrontational.

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36 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

So assuming Brown does indeed leave PIT, are there any realistic landing spots that absolutely tank his fantasy value? - not saying that he will be as productive as he was in PIT but is there a situation where you would no way rank in your top 10 fantasy WR. 

Whether he stays in Pittsburgh or leaves to join another NFL team, Brown will be nowhere near my top 25 ranked WRs.  Can't risk this guy imploding and turning on whatever coaching staff and QB he ends up with, if he ends up anywhere at all.

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Whether he stays in Pittsburgh or leaves to join another NFL team, Brown will be nowhere near my top 25 ranked WRs.  Can't risk this guy imploding and turning on whatever coaching staff and QB he ends up with, if he ends up anywhere at all.

 

 

This is of course hyperbole if you are ranking brown as a wr3 . . .:lol:

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20 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

This is of course hyperbole if you are ranking brown as a wr3 . . .:lol:

I want my WR3 in 2019 to be drafted as a WR1 in 2020.  No way in the world I would want to make Antonio Brown one of my core starters.  The guys gone nuts and can only be relied along for one thing: chaos.

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15 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I want my WR3 in 2019 to be drafted as a WR1 in 2020.  No way in the world I would want to make Antonio Brown one of my core starters.  The guys gone nuts and can only be relied along for one thing: chaos.

 

Wanting to force a trade by being disruptive is "gone nuts"? how else do you force a trade with a team that doesnt actually want to trade you? I think he put on a circus act to get out of Pitt for whatever his reasons are but no way is he going to be a wr3 wherever he lands. His talent will elevate the QB play at worst he falls to a  wr2

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