Corleone

Antonio Brown 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

And does that make Carr better?

39 minutes ago, bomont said:

OL is definitely key. They should be better, but how much better?  

 

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Just reading over these new posts from today....can’t believe owners would allow their grade on AB to be impacted by anything that Amari Cooper did or did not do as a Raider. We’re talking about two players who are on completely different planets, talent-wise. 

 

For me it has nothing to do with them being equal talents, and everything to do with how much better Cooper did with a different QB, instantly.  Carr has never sustained a WR1, and then all of a sudden Cooper goes to Dallas and he's putting up WR1 numbers ROS, and it isn't like Dak is some god of a QB either.  

I wouldn't go as far as to call AB a DND on my board, but I doubt I'll own him if his cost ends up being anywhere around where it is right now.  I'd much rather have players in predictable situations like JuJu or Evans in that range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

For me it has nothing to do with them being equal talents, and everything to do with how much better Cooper did with a different QB, instantly.  Carr has never sustained a WR1, and then all of a sudden Cooper goes to Dallas and he's putting up WR1 numbers ROS, and it isn't like Dak is some god of a QB either.  

I wouldn't go as far as to call AB a DND on my board, but I doubt I'll own him if his cost ends up being anywhere around where it is right now.  I'd much rather have players in predictable situations like JuJu or Evans in that range.

Cooper went to a team with an upgrade at every position so I don’t see a reason why he wouldn’t do better with an overall better team. AB should be fine I see over 1,000 yards 90 catches and around 9 tds. The running game should be much improved which should help Carr. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Robrob129killa said:

Cooper went to a team with an upgrade at every position so I don’t see a reason why he wouldn’t do better with an overall better team. AB should be fine I see over 1,000 yards 90 catches and around 9 tds. The running game should be much improved which should help Carr. 

 

I could definitely see AB putting up those numbers, but he's getting picked before guys like Evans and JuJu that put up 1,500 yards last year.  The current price is too steep, doesn't really leave much room to out-perform draft position.  

Cooper was the only legitimate offensive threat Carr had last year, and he still couldn't get him the ball consistently.  His lack of targets was mind boggling, no matter who was playing around him.  If anything Carr should have peppered him with targets with fewer weapons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, MetsSox said:

And does that make Carr better?

You're kidding, I hope. A good OL makes any QB better.

 

1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

I'd much rather have players in predictable situations like JuJu or Evans in that range.

Evans? Say what? He's about as unpredictable as it gets. His catches and yards while generally good vary, and his TDs totals are all over the map.

 

24 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

Cooper was the only legitimate offensive threat Carr had last year, and he still couldn't get him the ball consistently.

Not true, he had Cook, but still, he also had a disastrous OL.

I didn't actually see much of their games though, so I'm still curious how much the issue was Carr's bad throws vs Carr running for his life vs Cooper screwing up. I'm not convinced any one way.

But I think Brown should be fine. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/19/2019 at 3:13 PM, bomont said:

 

You're kidding, I hope. A good OL makes any QB better.

 

Evans? Say what? He's about as unpredictable as it gets. His catches and yards while generally good vary, and his TDs totals are all over the map.

 

Not true, he had Cook, but still, he also had a disastrous OL.

I didn't actually see much of their games though, so I'm still curious how much the issue was Carr's bad throws vs Carr running for his life vs Cooper screwing up. I'm not convinced any one way.

But I think Brown should be fine. 

 

I guess we each have slightly different ways of classifying predictable, but to me Evans is a predictable outcome draft pick.  He's been with the same team and same QB since he came into the league.  He's topped 1,000 yards every year he's been in the league, which is 5.  Career YPG right around 80.  Only missed like 3 games in 5 years.  He's a very safe bet to go for over 1,000 minimum again this year.

TD's are unpredictable.  The Bucs haven't had great teams the last few years, but they are definitely a pass-first offense, and last year tied for the 3rd most passing TD's in the league.  Evans is the undisputed #1 on a team making tons of passes, and has great size for the end zone.  TD numbers are the hardest to predict, but I'd say he's in a fine position to post a decent TD total.  But I don't generally count TD's in how predictable a player is, unless it ties directly to their role (GL RB taking all the RZ touches, etc).

AB on the other hand, his TD numbers have been great the last few seasons, but that's also with Big Ben throwing it and playing in a high powered offense with no real holes.  Time will tell how that Raiders offense clicks, but unless it improves a lot, AB is going to have trouble replicating his recent TD numbers.  Raiders only passed for 19 TD's as a team last year, while AB caught 15 TD's on his own.  

I'm not saying AB will have a horrible year, but I just don't buy into the upside at his current ADP.  He's going to one of the worst passing offenses in the league last year, possibly one of the worst starting QB's in the league, new offense to him, and he's still being drafted in a premium spot.  He's going as WR8 off the board, and even if absolutely everything breaks right for him and the Raiders, I can't see him returning a lot better than on your investment.  The price doesn't take the risks into account at all IMHO.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he’s one of the guys that’s ranked high but when the real drafts starts he ends up going in the 20-25 range. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

I think he’s one of the guys that’s ranked high but when the real drafts starts he ends up going in the 20-25 range. 

FFC currently has his ADP in the 20-25 range for all formats. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/19/2019 at 6:12 AM, Ryansm11 said:

Not Deandre Hopkins lol

Different style of play. AB wins with route running. Hopkins boxes defenders out and wins with his body and hands. AB's style of play does take more time to develop, so a better OL is definitely going to help him achieve better numbers with the Raiders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I guess we each have slightly different ways of classifying predictable, but to me Evans is a predictable outcome draft pick.  He's been with the same team and same QB since he came into the league.  He's topped 1,000 yards every year he's been in the league, which is 5.  Career YPG right around 80.  Only missed like 3 games in 5 years.  He's a very safe bet to go for over 1,000 minimum again this year.

TD's are unpredictable.  The Bucs haven't had great teams the last few years, but they are definitely a pass-first offense, and last year tied for the 3rd most passing TD's in the league.  Evans is the undisputed #1 on a team making tons of passes, and has great size for the end zone.  TD numbers are the hardest to predict, but I'd say he's in a fine position to post a decent TD total.  But I don't generally count TD's in how predictable a player is, unless it ties directly to their role (GL RB taking all the RZ touches, etc).

AB on the other hand, his TD numbers have been great the last few seasons, but that's also with Big Ben throwing it and playing in a high powered offense with no real holes.  Time will tell how that Raiders offense clicks, but unless it improves a lot, AB is going to have trouble replicating his recent TD numbers.  Raiders only passed for 19 TD's as a team last year, while AB caught 15 TD's on his own.  

I'm not saying AB will have a horrible year, but I just don't buy into the upside at his current ADP.  He's going to one of the worst passing offenses in the league last year, possibly one of the worst starting QB's in the league, new offense to him, and he's still being drafted in a premium spot.  He's going as WR8 off the board, and even if absolutely everything breaks right for him and the Raiders, I can't see him returning a lot better than on your investment.  The price doesn't take the risks into account at all IMHO.

Good post. I agree Brown is in a very diff situation with a lot of unknowns, but I still question just how bad Carr really is vs how much was Cooper screwing up and/or Carr running for his life. True the Raiders are a very diff team now and there is more risk because of that in taking Brown but they should be much improved and his upside is obvious.

As for Evans, I would counter with "topping 1000 yds" doesn't mean much when you're talking about the top WRs.  He barely topped 1000 two out of his five years, and here are his TD totals:  12,3,12,5,8.  Even for TDs that is quite a spread. Meanwhile here are a few other top WRs:

Adams (the last 3 yrs when he was featured):  12,10,13  
Beckham (discounting his injured year and extrapolating last year to 16 games): 12,13,10,8  
J Jones (discounting his big injury year):  8,10,6,8,6,3,8 

All pretty consistent, and part of why I don't buy the "TDs are unpredictable" thing as much as many seem to. I agree they are more unpredictable than catches and yards, but not by much, and as you can see, most top WRs TD totals don't jump around as much as Evans, as do his yards for that matter. Don't get me wrong I like Evans and the upside is there, but I think my point of him not being predictable stands.

As for Brown, if you kidding...if everything breaks right, he's right up at or near the very top. How big of an if that is is debatable of course.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, bomont said:

Good post. I agree Brown is in a very diff situation with a lot of unknowns, but I still question just how bad Carr really is vs how much was Cooper screwing up and/or Carr running for his life. True the Raiders are a very diff team now and there is more risk because of that in taking Brown but they should be much improved and his upside is obvious.

As for Evans, I would counter with "topping 1000 yds" doesn't mean much when you're talking about the top WRs.  He barely topped 1000 two out of his five years, and here are his TD totals:  12,3,12,5,8.  Even for TDs that is quite a spread. Meanwhile here are a few other top WRs:

Adams (the last 3 yrs when he was featured):  12,10,13  
Beckham (discounting his injured year and extrapolating last year to 16 games): 12,13,10,8  
J Jones (discounting his big injury year):  8,10,6,8,6,3,8 

All pretty consistent, and part of why I don't buy the "TDs are unpredictable" thing as much as many seem to. I agree they are more unpredictable than catches and yards, but not by much, and as you can see, most top WRs TD totals don't jump around as much as Evans, as do his yards for that matter. Don't get me wrong I like Evans and the upside is there, but I think my point of him not being predictable stands.

As for Brown, if you kidding...if everything breaks right, he's right up at or near the very top. How big of an if that is is debatable of course.
 

 

I think we're mostly on the same page.

I do agree that if 'everything breaks right' Brown is at or near the top of WR's.  But I still don't think current ADP as WR7 leaves much room for reward relative to the risk at that price.  Last year AB had just about 1,300 yards and 15 TD's, which is pretty darn close to what I would say is "everything breaking right" for him in his first year in Oakland.  That made him WR2 in my half-PPR league (w/ return yards) last year with about 207 points.  Adam Thielen finished at WR7 with 182 points, so 25 points less.  

If you're drafting him at WR7 value on draft day, and the upside is only about 25 total points, with the downside being a lot less than that, it seems risky to me.  That top-tier of WR's, including back to probably Evans / JuJu area, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see any of them finish as WR1.  With so little separating them in rankings and projections it's hard to take AB and his risk over any of them.  

Then if you get to the next 'tier' (in my mind, at least) and start looking at Keenan Allen, Thielen, Diggs, Hilton) you certainly have an upside advantage with AB, but I think the aforementioned group has a much safer floor.  Preseason / Hard Knocks will hopefully give us something more to go on, but if I'm sitting on my turn and I'm staring at AB and Keenan Allen, it's going to be a tough decision, personally.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like AB is a bit banged up......

 

9M ago

Raiders' Antonio Brown: Placed on NFI list

By RotoWire Staff

Brown (undisclosed) will start training camp on the non-football injury list, Field Yates of ESPN reports.

Brown reported to camp in a hot air balloon, visibly in good spirits. The Raiders haven't provided any comment on the nature or severity of his injury. Brown won't be eligible to practice until he's removed from the NFI list.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Looks like AB is a bit banged up......

 

9M ago

Raiders' Antonio Brown: Placed on NFI list

By RotoWire Staff

Brown (undisclosed) will start training camp on the non-football injury list, Field Yates of ESPN reports.

Brown reported to camp in a hot air balloon, visibly in good spirits. The Raiders haven't provided any comment on the nature or severity of his injury. Brown won't be eligible to practice until he's removed from the NFI list.

 

hot air therapy will cure his boo boo...

certainly whenever my rolls royce is in the shop and i want to beat the bay area traffic in style, i go ballooning

 

oakland-raiders-twitter.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He showed a picture of his feet, they look fooked 😅

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/22/2019 at 8:07 AM, handyandy86 said:

 

I guess we each have slightly different ways of classifying predictable, but to me Evans is a predictable outcome draft pick.  He's been with the same team and same QB since he came into the league.  He's topped 1,000 yards every year he's been in the league, which is 5.  Career YPG right around 80.  Only missed like 3 games in 5 years.  He's a very safe bet to go for over 1,000 minimum again this year.

TD's are unpredictable.  The Bucs haven't had great teams the last few years, but they are definitely a pass-first offense, and last year tied for the 3rd most passing TD's in the league.  Evans is the undisputed #1 on a team making tons of passes, and has great size for the end zone.  TD numbers are the hardest to predict, but I'd say he's in a fine position to post a decent TD total.  But I don't generally count TD's in how predictable a player is, unless it ties directly to their role (GL RB taking all the RZ touches, etc).

AB on the other hand, his TD numbers have been great the last few seasons, but that's also with Big Ben throwing it and playing in a high powered offense with no real holes.  Time will tell how that Raiders offense clicks, but unless it improves a lot, AB is going to have trouble replicating his recent TD numbers.  Raiders only passed for 19 TD's as a team last year, while AB caught 15 TD's on his own.  

I'm not saying AB will have a horrible year, but I just don't buy into the upside at his current ADP.  He's going to one of the worst passing offenses in the league last year, possibly one of the worst starting QB's in the league, new offense to him, and he's still being drafted in a premium spot.  He's going as WR8 off the board, and even if absolutely everything breaks right for him and the Raiders, I can't see him returning a lot better than on your investment.  The price doesn't take the risks into account at all IMHO.

Excellent post.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

He showed a picture of his feet, they look fooked 😅

.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are those even classified as blisters anymore?  That's like literally all the skin on the bottom of both feet that's peeling off.  I know the media has been calling it blisters, but that's a lot of surface area!  Also the fact he's seen a specialist to get a second opinion on it tells me the medical staff finds it weird too.  

You'd have to assume a guy like AB is training pretty intensely all year round, so what would even cause that to pop up all of a sudden?  It's not like he's some out-of-shape dude that just started running again for the first time in years, and needs to build up callouses.  

Hopefully for him it's nothing serious and really is just bad blisters and a one-time thing.  But any time you see something that makes you think "wow, how does that happen?" it doesn't really give you a good feeling. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

Are those even classified as blisters anymore?  That's like literally all the skin on the bottom of both feet that's peeling off.  I know the media has been calling it blisters, but that's a lot of surface area!  Also the fact he's seen a specialist to get a second opinion on it tells me the medical staff finds it weird too.  

You'd have to assume a guy like AB is training pretty intensely all year round, so what would even cause that to pop up all of a sudden?  It's not like he's some out-of-shape dude that just started running again for the first time in years, and needs to build up callouses.  

Hopefully for him it's nothing serious and really is just bad blisters and a one-time thing.  But any time you see something that makes you think "wow, how does that happen?" it doesn't really give you a good feeling. 

 

spacer.png

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Simms: Antonio Brown’s got frostbitten feet in a cryotherapy machine

Posted by Mike Florio on August 6, 2019, 2:47 PM EDT

 ......

After Monday’s show, Simms got word from someone with knowledge of the situation that Brown burned his feet by entering a cryotherapy machine without the proper footwear, and his feet were frostbitten.

Brown’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, did not respond to a request for comment.

The former Steeler started training camp on the non-football injury list. He exited NFI, practiced for a few days, and then was unable to practice. He has seen a specialist, and is regarded as day to day.

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/08/06/simms-antonio-browns-got-frostbitten-feet-in-a-cryotherapy-machine/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

source with knowledge of the situation tells NBC's Chris Simms that Antonio Brown is dealing with frostbitten feet after "entering a cryotherapy machine without the proper footwear."

 
yikes.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...