FantasyGuru24

Travis Kelce 2019 Outlook

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Catches: 103

Yards:      1,336

TD:           10

Targets:   150

 

Obviusly the cream of the crop from the TE position with Mahomes and that offense.

 

How early should he be drafted next year?

 

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I got him at the turn at the end of the third round this year, I have a feeling he's gonna be going much closer to the turn at the end of the second next year. Might be a bit of a reach but it's worth it IMO for that kind of production out of your TE. I'd guess his ADP will be right around 22-25.

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1 minute ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I got him at the turn at the end of the third round this year, I have a feeling he's gonna be going much closer to the turn at the end of the second next year. Might be a bit of a reach but it's worth it IMO for that kind of production out of your TE. I'd guess his ADP will be right around 22-25.

If Gronk was going early second, I'd expect no different from Kelce next year. My guess is someone will reach at 12-16. 

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I'm buying. He is worth ADP of early career Gronk - > WR1 level production at the TE spot

 

Puts less stress on overall WR/FLEX/ROR production AND you have your TE spot filled with the likely TE1 at a shallow position. That is an understated advantage worth investing major draft capital in based on the scoring disparity between TEs. Worth it.

 

You would probably still be drafting top WRs/RBs that early anyways, might as well take another elite option off the table for someone else to draft.

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7 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

If Gronk was going early second, I'd expect no different from Kelce next year. My guess is someone will reach at 12-16. 

Gronk's ADP was always too high IMO but your point is well taken. One thing that helps a little is for a few years Gronk was in a tier by himself. You could make an argument that Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle would all be in that top tier, and I just can't see any scenario where three TEs go in the top 25. I would agree that Kelce is the clear number one. 

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As said in the Kittle thread, I expect Kelce/Ertz/Little to go late second, early third, with Kelce going first. Kelce around #20 would not surprise me, and if you really want any of these guys but you are out of position (picks #10-12) it may involve reaching.

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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

As said in the Kittle thread, I expect Kelce/Ertz/Little to go late second, early third, with Kelce going first. Kelce around #20 would not surprise me, and if you really want any of these guys but you are out of position (picks #10-12) it may involve reaching.

No way on earth am I taking any TE at 10-12. In fact I wouldn’t take any TE until the mid 30s. Sure they give a huge advantage but you’re still looking at around 12 PPG and that’s it. Which means the advantage isn’t that big justifying a 2nd round pick.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

No way on earth am I taking any TE at 10-12. In fact I wouldn’t take any TE until the mid 30s. Sure they give a huge advantage but you’re still looking at around 12 PPG and that’s it. Which means the advantage isn’t that big justifying a 2nd round pick.

Sorry, what I meant is:

- if you have pick #10-12 in the first round, obviously you won't take a TE

- your second round pick would be #13-15, which is still high to get Kelce

- your third round pick (in a 12 team) would come at #34-36. I think by then, Kelce/Ertz/Kittle may well all three be gone.

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9 hours ago, Gohawks said:

No way on earth am I taking any TE at 10-12. In fact I wouldn’t take any TE until the mid 30s. Sure they give a huge advantage but you’re still looking at around 12 PPG and that’s it. Which means the advantage isn’t that big justifying a 2nd round pick.

Yeah but a top TE can win you your week. Just look at Kelce week 13 at Oakland

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22 hours ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

Catches: 103

Yards:      1,336

TD:           10

Targets:   150

 

Obviusly the cream of the crop from the TE position with Mahomes and that offense.

 

How early should he be drafted next year?

 

 

1st rounder 

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I truly think you can make a case for Kelce at the very end of the 1st round. 

 

In .5 PPR he would have been a top 8 WR. And you are getting that from your tight end spot, as the guy above me said, that is certainly worth risking a ton of draft capital. There is certainly some risk involved but really what is a healthy Kelce's floor next season? It's probably like 80/1050/8. 

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Kelce is just the second TE ever to have 1,000 yards receiving in three straight seasons (with the other being Greg Olsen from 2014--2016). Interestingly, Olsen turned 30 in the middle year of that streak. Kelce will turn 30 in 2019. Got me to thinking about the ages for when TE's start to fade, as I recently did some analysis on that for WR's.

Here are the top receiving TE's of recent memory, at age 30...
 

Jason Witten: 110 catches - 1039 yards - 3 TD - #3 TE (it was age 32 when he stopped being an elite TE, though he still had value)

Tony Gonzalez: 73 catches - 900 yards - 5 TD - #3 TE (followed up with back-to-back 1000+ yard seasons and was very productive until retirement at 37)

Jimmy Graham: 65 catches - 923 yards - 6 TD - #4 TE (scored 10 TD's at age 31, but at 32 in 2018, was that him hitting the wall?)

Antonio Gates: 50 catches - 782 yards - 10 TD in just 10 games - #2 TE (good not great next few seasons, but at 34 was Top 2 TE, before gradual slow down)

Shannon Sharpe: 64 catches - 768 yards - 10 TD - #1 TE (injured most of next season, and while not as elite after, was still Top 5 TE until retirement at 35)

Greg Olsen: 77 catches - 1104 yards - 7 TD - #4 TE (followed up with final 1000+ yard season at age 31, and due to injuries, seems to have hit wall in '17-'18)
 

Rob Gronkowski is the same age as Kelce (they're less than 5 months apart). So he hasn't played at 30 yet...and has he already hit the wall?

 

Several lesser TE's have hit the wall at or before 30, but the top guys of recent times have still been very productive at the 30 mark. Kelce also has only played 5 full seasons (after missing all but one game of his rookie season due to injury) and started in the league at an older age than most players, so he's taken a lot less hits than the average TE of his caliber. Add in another season together with Mahomes, and I see no reason why Kelce won't play at an elite level once again.

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Pretty simple, you draft Kelce once the top tier rbs/wrs are off the board.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Where's Ebron going :ph34r:

 

Nowhere near my roster. Lol. 

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On 1/4/2019 at 2:07 PM, BGDDYKWL said:

I got him at the turn at the end of the third round this year, I have a feeling he's gonna be going much closer to the turn at the end of the second next year. Might be a bit of a reach but it's worth it IMO for that kind of production out of your TE. I'd guess his ADP will be right around 22-25.

Careful, trolls here will tell you this is a “CSB” post.

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Kelce gives you a big advantage at TE with how shallow the position is. I have him slotted right after the top 7-8 RB's and after Adams/Nuk/AB/Thomas. That puts him in the 12-18 range with the second tier RB's and WR's.

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I traded up to get Kelce in our Keeper league. I am going to pair him with Thomas and Nuk. With Watkins potentially being more healthy all I see is the middle of the field being more open and a lot more 1 on 1's in the red zone. Fantasy is always ever changing and if you can't get Zeke, Gurley, CMC, and Barkley you need to find ways to offset and Kelce gets WR 1 production.

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Let's please remember that these threads aren't for specific team or league questions and any reference or questions pertaining to those specifics should be asked in the AC forum.  Thanks.

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On 1/4/2019 at 2:08 PM, oliminator123 said:

If Gronk was going early second, I'd expect no different from Kelce next year. My guess is someone will reach at 12-16. 

I think Ertz and Kittle might drop his value as people in that area will know they can probably catch one of those two with a following pick if Kelce doesn't make it back. 

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5 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

I think Ertz and Kittle might drop his value as people in that area will know they can probably catch one of those two with a following pick if Kelce doesn't make it back. 

 

True, Ertz and Kittle are close to Kelce but there is a very large drop off after the top 3. Who is 4th... Howard, Ebron, maybe Henry? The top 3 TE's will go early next year and then it might be 3-4 rounds before another TE is drafted.

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1 hour ago, FISH20 said:

 

True, Ertz and Kittle are close to Kelce but there is a very large drop off after the top 3. Who is 4th... Howard, Ebron, maybe Henry? The top 3 TE's will go early next year and then it might be 3-4 rounds before another TE is drafted.

Yeah but three stud TEs is the deepest pool we have had in awhile. And Gronk will still carry name value (if he returns) pushing him up higher than his production warrants. 

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8 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Yeah but three stud TEs is the deepest pool we have had in awhile. And Gronk will still carry name value (if he returns) pushing him up higher than his production warrants. 

 

There is no way that Kelce and Ertz's ADP drops after they had huge years. Owners were rewarded for drafting a stud TE early and the position is still really thin after the top 3.

 

I haven't seen anyone say, "This is a deep pool of TE's"

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4 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

There is no way that Kelce and Ertz's ADP drops after they had huge years. Owners were rewarded for drafting a stud TE early and the position is still really thin after the top 3.

 

I haven't seen anyone say, "This is a deep pool of TE's"

 

I think it’s going to be deeper in 2019 than it was in 2018. Kelce is still going to go crazy high...the top 3 will still be the top 3, but I don’t believe the TE position will be as destitute next season. 

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15 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

I think Ertz and Kittle might drop his value as people in that area will know they can probably catch one of those two with a following pick if Kelce doesn't make it back. 

 

Right now I am planning to make a run at Kelce in auction this year and am thinking of using this to my advantage and throwing him out early so that people will 1. Hopefully not want to spend their money so early, esp at TE and 2. Not bud so high thinking they can still get one of the other 2 in the first tier. 

 

Not sure it will work, but is one of the thoughts I have floating around.

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