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Travis Kelce 2019 Outlook

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7 hours ago, nromn said:

 

Right now I am planning to make a run at Kelce in auction this year and am thinking of using this to my advantage and throwing him out early so that people will 1. Hopefully not want to spend their money so early, esp at TE and 2. Not bud so high thinking they can still get one of the other 2 in the first tier. 

 

Not sure it will work, but is one of the thoughts I have floating around.

 

I think your idea on him being the first TE out might mean he goes a little cheaper. It's happened multiple times in my auctions where the #1 wr goes for a little less then the 3-4 wr's. I would never nominate a guy I want early though. People spend big early and I've found that it's always best to slow play your draft targets in the beginning.

Edited by FISH20
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1 hour ago, FISH20 said:

 

I think your idea on him being the first TE out might mean he goes a little cheaper. It's happened multiple times in my auctions where the #1 wr goes for a little less then the 3-4 wr's. I would never nominate a guy I want early though. People spend big early and I've found that it's always best to slow play your draft targets in the beginning.

Yeah it’s a delicate balance. If I don’t make him the #1 TE, people may throw out Ertz or Kittle thinking they may be able to get them cheaper if they throw them out first because they think everyone wanting to spend on TE would rather wait for Kelce. 

 

He definitely won’t be my first nomination, but by the time the 3rd comes around if he hasn’t been put out yet, I might go for it. 

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My friends and family league does not require a tight end in some of the offensive formations allowed even in that league I would see him going in the 3rd round.  I would consider taking him in the 2nd round in a league that requires a tight end.  

after the top 8 running backs, and 5 wide receivers or so go.  Hes probably just as good as the number 6 wide receiver.

In a 10 team league or 12 team league that required a tight end.  I would pick him in the second round.  Probably as early as 14 overall.  After your A list backs are gone, and your A list wide receivers I would take Kelce or Ertz.

 

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What price are we prepared to pay for Kelce? He's doing my head in ha. I'm picking 10 in a 10-team PPR. He's intriguing at the 10-11 pick turn as will give you a big positional advantage each week and on an elite offence. Problem is going to leave you weaker at either WR, RB. To me, he's better of a mid to late second as you get another pick quickly again. Obviously in a 12-team, 14-team league, you'd pull the trigger on him late first round. Thoughts?

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Can't help you as I'm in an auction league but he's likely too pricey for my blood. It's a tough call but I'd rather a 2d tier guy like Howard or Engam and a better WR with the money saved vs Kelce and a lesser WR as he has no upside, though that's because he put up insane numbers for a TE last year. He's realistically going to "regress" some, still very good of course.

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38 minutes ago, Justakicker said:

I'm picking 10 in a 10-team PPR. He's intriguing at the 10-11 pick turn as will give you a big positional advantage each week and on an elite offence. Problem is going to leave you weaker at either WR, RB. 

A good friend of mine, who is a successful veteran fantasy player, is picking at the 11/12 turn in one of his drafts and he is saying that he will almost certainly take Kelce if he's there. So he is being taken in that area in some drafts apparently. 

Personally, that's too high for me. As you referenced, I'm not willing to sacrifice an RB1 or WR1 in order to have the projected #1 TE. If I were going to pay a premium for TE, I'd prefer to wait a round or two and grab Kittle who I think could feasibly finish as TE1 overall this season if he can close that TD gap somewhat between he and Kelce. That said, in most leagues I'll likely be waiting on the likes of Burton, Ebron, Cook, or somebody in that range. 

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Posted (edited)

you have to stop JUST looking at Kelce as a positional advantage and start looking at him for what he is....a back to back top 10 finishing WR  who just happens to be TE eligible. IMO if you knew for certain your pick at the turn would finish in the top 10 among WR's  as a median projection....you take him. First and second picks are about landing sure things. The fact that he opens up another flex spot to gamble on later in the draft with players in MUCH deeper positions is icing on the cake.

Edited by Joe Odam
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36 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

you have to stop JUST looking at Kelce as a positional advantage and start looking at him for what he is....a back to back top 10 finishing WR  who just happens to be TE eligible. IMO if you knew for certain your pick at the turn would finish in the top 10 among WR's  as a median projection....you take him. First and second picks are about landing sure things. The fact that he opens up another flex spot to gamble on later in the draft with players in MUCH deeper positions is icing on the cake.

Disagree. I know enough about snake drafts to know a lot of (most?) people at the 1st/2d round turn are looking at top-end WRs, Kelce only represents a borderline WR1 talent. IMO taking a TE in the late 1st or early 2d is crazy. I agree that first and second picks are about landing sure things, but what you give up at the WR spot there (or RB if you're feeling more risk/reward inclined) isn't worth it.

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2 minutes ago, bomont said:

Disagree. I know enough about snake drafts to know a lot of (most?) people at the 1st/2d round turn are looking at top-end WRs, Kelce only represents a borderline WR1 talent in my TE slot where my competition will field borderline flex players. IMO taking a TE in the late 1st or early 2d is crazy. I agree that first and second picks are about landing sure things, but what you give up at the WR spot there (or RB if you're feeling more risk/reward inclined) isn't worth it.

fixed the bolded for ya

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Some interesting points on Kelce. Let me rephrase. Which elite WRs, RBs (outside big five RBs and Adams/Hopkins) would you take over Kelce if on the clock in re-draft PPR?

For me, I'm grabbing Julio, Thomas and OBJ over him. 

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I personally think totally different about the TE position. 

Kelce is an all time producer who has very little injury concerns and fills out your TE position in regular cases a whole season without worrying at any time. 

If you stream this position (what definitely is an applicable option) you always might have to adjust and worry. 

It's much easier to trade for WR and RB than for a top TE imho.

Give me Kelce in the second all day. 

I prefer selecting him in my strategy drafting WR only after Pick 5 overall. 

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On 8/5/2019 at 9:28 PM, Justakicker said:

What price are we prepared to pay for Kelce? He's doing my head in ha. I'm picking 10 in a 10-team PPR. He's intriguing at the 10-11 pick turn as will give you a big positional advantage each week and on an elite offence. Problem is going to leave you weaker at either WR, RB. To me, he's better of a mid to late second as you get another pick quickly again. Obviously in a 12-team, 14-team league, you'd pull the trigger on him late first round. Thoughts?

 

I have my main draft tomorrow. I'm very heavily leaning towards drafting Kelce in the early 2nd if he's still available. 102 receptions 1,336 yards 10 TD last year. I have a hard time seeing him regress now that Mahomes is there. We're talking about WR1 numbers in your TE slot. The advantage just seems so great, and WR so deep to fill later. 

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Posted (edited)

I ended up grabbing Kelce at 17 in my draft. I usually don't like my teams when I grab Kelce early but, other than my WR3, I'm happy. 

If Kelce puts up WR1 numbers again, he's well worth it. If not, then grabbing a mid tier guy or trying to get value from the wire while building a stronger core may be a better decision. I'm just glad I don't have to play TE roulette this year.

Edited by kball09

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I'm sitting at 15th in a 10 team league, and I'm debating Kelce over possible RB's - Cook, Mixon, Chubb, Gurley....

 

I just feel like those RB's are tiers above the lower one, and I don't like missing out on those guys. But yeah...it's a tough decision.

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3 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Got him with pick 25 and paired him with Mike Evans at the round 2/3 turn.  

 

feels good man

 

Fantastic start.

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22 minutes ago, kball09 said:

I ended up grabbing Kelce at 17 in my draft. I usually don't like my teams when I grab Kelce early but, other than my WR3, I'm happy. 

If Kelce puts up WR1 numbers again, he's well worth it. If not, then grabbing a mid tier guy or trying to get value from the wire while building a stronger core may be a better decision. I'm just glad I don't have to play TE roulette this year.

TE just does not have quite the flash as top RBs and WRs when looking at your roster but the benefits are there. There is a reason Gronk was historically on so many championship teams. I would rather lock up an elite TE like Kelce and plug and play my WR2s/RB2s/FLX all season as opposed to TEs. 

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If I were to go Kelce, I would consider picking up a lower-middle TE (Henry, Cook...Reed) later one, and hope to hit on one of them. Move Kelce to Flex to make up for any duds you drafted. 

I think someone posted once about the RB-TE-TE theory to gain a big advantage over opponents, but not sure how that plays out in reality.

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9 minutes ago, FooserX said:

If I were to go Kelce, I would consider picking up a lower-middle TE (Henry, Cook...Reed) later one, and hope to hit on one of them. Move Kelce to Flex to make up for any duds you drafted. 

I think someone posted once about the RB-TE-TE theory to gain a big advantage over opponents, but not sure how that plays out in reality.

Kind of did something similar except I was able to get Njoku with my later pick. Hopefully this works out haha

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Even if you to Kelce, if some other tight end falls into value, you take him and flex him. If Henry or engram were somehow sliding into the late 7th round, you take Kelce early 2nd and then one of those guys in the late 7th. Never let value go to your opponent.

 

Kelce is a slam dunk top 12 pick in PPR

 

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I more then likely wont own Kelce outside of the 2 Dynasty leagues i already own him in. However, the TE is starting to look more and more like it did last year to me after drafting this year. I honestly believe outside of Kelce, everyone else comes with questions and risk. Congratulations to everyone who gets him at a value pick.

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2 hours ago, Grayson2401 said:

TE just does not have quite the flash as top RBs and WRs when looking at your roster but the benefits are there.

This exactly. In 2018, in 1 point PPR, Kelce scored the 15th-most points amongst all RB/WR/TE's.
In 2017, he scored the 17th-most points.
Regardless of position, that's a player you want on your team.
And when you factor in the position scarcity that Kelce offers over the vast majority of TE's, he is an extremely-valuable player.
His 2017/2018 numbers don't mean he will again be great in 2019. But if you look at the situation he has in KC and think he'll be great again, then don't be afraid to do what you have to in order to get him.

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30 minutes ago, Corleone said:

This exactly. In 2018, in 1 point PPR, Kelce scored the 15th-most points amongst all RB/WR/TE's.
In 2017, he scored the 17th-most points.
Regardless of position, that's a player you want on your team.
And when you factor in the position scarcity that Kelce offers over the vast majority of TE's, he is an extremely-valuable player.
His 2017/2018 numbers don't mean he will again be great in 2019. But if you look at the situation he has in KC and think he'll be great again, then don't be afraid to do what you have to in order to get him.

I'm targeting for those reasons and the fact that he historically has been healthy, which is a huge bonus and emphasis for me this year with my bigger money players.

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4 hours ago, Canuck14 said:

 

I have my main draft tomorrow. I'm very heavily leaning towards drafting Kelce in the early 2nd if he's still available. 102 receptions 1,336 yards 10 TD last year. I have a hard time seeing him regress now that Mahomes is there. 

You have a hard time seeing a TE regress from 100/1300/10 ish? Even top WRs will typically regress from that. He's regressing. Probably not a whole lot though. 

I think him and a lesser WR2 vs a second-tier TE and better WR is roughly a wash. And of course depends on who you get. I just think he's too pricey given his regression. His AAV is about $40 right now. That's like Evans, Thomas, Schister level.

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