urban2014

Chris Carson 2019 Outlook

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6 hours ago, RepoMan said:

 

I kind of agree, although I think Carson is significantly better than Collins, especially at the goalline. 

 

I think they move on from Davis and just have Penny slide into that role and Carson still has a good year. But there certainly are some valid concerns.

Yeah I think Carson is considerably better than Collins. I just think they'll try everything they can to have Penny see more action and we know Carson won't be involved in the passing game. Not sure what his ADP is but I assume it's too high for me personally. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL
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On 1/7/2019 at 3:25 PM, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I had to sign in for this one to say, "laziest start of a thread ever"

 

a jumpstart to the thread:

chris carson 2018 stats:

  • 14 games played, ranked 14 overall in fantasy points

  • 247 carries in 14 games = 7th in rushing attempts

  • 5th overall in rushing yards

  • averages 4.7 yards / attempt, tied with zeke

  • 9TDS matches zeke’s total

  • 20 receptions from 24 targets (83% catch rate), no receiving TDs

  • likes to jump, fun to watch
  • has earned his role, respected by coaches and teammates.

concerns:

  • sizeable volume increases opportunity but also injury risk. still, carson recovered fully from 2017 compound injury.
  • penny. mike davis looked good when he touched the ball, but mike davis was also let go last july and then was re-signed less than a month later. if the seahawks keep davis, it will be davis and penny competing for touches.

 

lowdown:

it's carson's job. if there are still doubters they haven't seem him play. he's a solid volume-based RB2, with only his draft price mitigating his value. early prediction puts anything higher than round 4 as a questionable value (more than $25 in auction). penny's college record will help to keep carson draft price down, and round 5 would be a steal for this kind of volume and carson's talent and goal-line opportunity. penny truthers dismiss a key fact from his outstanding 2017 stats at san diego state: 85% of penny's opponents were garbage teams.

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Posted (edited)

Carson's goal line prowess keeps him in the RB2 conversation regardless of Penny. I own them both in a dynasty league and I'm cautiously optimistic that Penny carves out a bigger role, but runs like this make me believe that Carson will be a TD machine regardless as long as he can stay healthy.

 

 

 

Edited by wonderbread
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I would rather have penny late in the draft. I think hes more talented and chris Carson gets dinged up cuss of his aggressive running style. By the end of the season I think penny will shoulder most of the load and win ppl fantasy championships 

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8 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I would rather have penny late in the draft. I think hes more talented and chris Carson gets dinged up cuss of his aggressive running style. By the end of the season I think penny will shoulder most of the load and win ppl fantasy championships 

 

how did that strategy work out for you in 2018?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

how did that strategy work out for you in 2018?

 

 

I owned and inserted Carson-Davis-penney at various points over the season  into my lineups and they were the worst to predict  week to week next to the Niners backfield.

People can go on all they want about how great carson was but there were too many weeks where he burned you in a lineup if you had the conviction to keep plugging him in

Edited by dashoe
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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I owned and inserted Carson-Davis-penney at various points over the season  into my lineups and they were the worst to predict  week to week next to the Niners backfield.

People can go on all they want about how great carson was but there were too many weeks where he burned you in a lineup if you had the conviction to keep plugging him in

Weeks 1, 2, 6 and 9 were duds for sure (under 10 points PPR).  Week 10 he didn't play.  Every other week though was solid to good.  I wouldn't call it unpredictable - the Seahawks wanted to run the ball (almost to a fault) last year.  I think if you played Carson every week last year, minus the 1 week he was injured, especially given his draft cost last year, you were really happy with the output.  Players have duds throughout the year, it happens.  I would hardly call Carson's season unpredictable or say Carson burned people last year.  Especially at the end of the season - Weeks 11-17 his FPPG were 12.3, 14.3, 13.8, 15, 26.8, 23.6, 19.9.  So if you had conviction to keep playing him especially down the stretch, he contributed in a great way IMO.

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31 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Weeks 1, 2, 6 and 9 were duds for sure (under 10 points PPR).  Week 10 he didn't play.  Every other week though was solid to good.  I wouldn't call it unpredictable - the Seahawks wanted to run the ball (almost to a fault) last year.  I think if you played Carson every week last year, minus the 1 week he was injured, especially given his draft cost last year, you were really happy with the output.  Players have duds throughout the year, it happens.  I would hardly call Carson's season unpredictable or say Carson burned people last year.  Especially at the end of the season - Weeks 11-17 his FPPG were 12.3, 14.3, 13.8, 15, 26.8, 23.6, 19.9.  So if you had conviction to keep playing him especially down the stretch, he contributed in a great way IMO.

 

well said and backed up. plus, simply consider this: carson is an RB netting 16-22 carries per game, and he's an RB who can get hit, do a flip in the air, land on his feet, and keep running. all for a round 5 ADP? seems a value pick.

 

39 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I owned and inserted Carson-Davis-penney at various points over the season  into my lineups and they were the worst to predict  week to week next to the Niners backfield.

People can go on all they want about how great carson was but there were too many weeks where he burned you in a lineup if you had the conviction to keep plugging him in

 

the volume for the price tag is simply too irresistible; add talent as well.

image.png.d2c62df5c37e31ef1515c011977a2fe4.png

i'm copying my post from february 16th because it contains relevant information. if you have any points to address, shoot, but right now that 5.01 ADP price tag looks good.

chris carson 2018 stats:

 

  •  

    14 games played, ranked 14 overall in fantasy points

     

  • 247 carries in 14 games = 7th in rushing attempts

     

  • 5th overall in rushing yards

     

  • averages 4.7 yards / attempt, tied with zeke

     

  • 9TDS matches zeke’s total

     

  • 20 receptions from 24 targets (83% catch rate), no receiving TDs

     

  • likes to jump, fun to watch
  • has earned his role, respected by coaches and teammates.

 

 

concerns:

  • sizeable volume increases opportunity but also injury risk. still, carson recovered fully from 2017 compound injury.
  • penny. mike davis looked good when he touched the ball, but mike davis was also let go last july and then was re-signed less than a month later. if the seahawks keep davis, it will be davis and penny competing for touches.

 

lowdown:

it's carson's job. if there are still doubters they haven't seem him play. he's a solid volume-based RB2, with only his draft price mitigating his value. early prediction puts anything higher than round 4 as a questionable value (more than $25 in auction). penny's college record will help to keep carson draft price down, and round 5 would be a steal for this kind of volume and carson's talent and goal-line opportunity. penny truthers dismiss a key fact from his outstanding 2017 stats at san diego state: 85% of penny's opponents were garbage teams.

 

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

how did that strategy work out for you in 2018?                    

 

 

Well I didn't own either of them But i did get burned when I tried it with kerryon johnson lol so you could be right about it all. But penny played good and will prolly be more of the pass catching back and he was a 1st round pick the coach will give him plenty of chances to prove it was a good pick. Didnt know Carson was a 5th round pick, I'd grab both if a draft was today.

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

Weeks 1, 2, 6 and 9 were duds for sure (under 10 points PPR).  Week 10 he didn't play.  Every other week though was solid to good.  I wouldn't call it unpredictable - the Seahawks wanted to run the ball (almost to a fault) last year.  I think if you played Carson every week last year, minus the 1 week he was injured, especially given his draft cost last year, you were really happy with the output.  Players have duds throughout the year, it happens.  I would hardly call Carson's season unpredictable or say Carson burned people last year.  Especially at the end of the season - Weeks 11-17 his FPPG were 12.3, 14.3, 13.8, 15, 26.8, 23.6, 19.9.  So if you had conviction to keep playing him especially down the stretch, he contributed in a great way IMO.

 Game 1-  10pts                 
      2 -  2pts                  
      6-  6pts                  
      8-  4pts                  
     10-  13pts                 
     11-  14pts                 
     12-  14pts                 
     13-  15pts                 
                              
 He played 14 games           
 8 games were 15pts and under 
 Games 14-16 he had over 20pts

 

 It wasn't until game 10 he had predictable double digit point production

So as I said his production was not predictable for 10 GAMES and I don't subscribe to the EVERY OTHER WEEK forecast for my lineup because you can easily get whipsawed and burned; there is no EVERY OTHER WEEK model  😂.

He was designated the teams rb1 coming out of training camp and he didnt begin to consistently perform like one until the fantasy playoffs hit and he ultimately finished as an rb2 for the season 

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Feel like the SEA backfield is always a crapshoot. Probably passing on all.

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19 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 Game 1-  10pts                 
      2 -  2pts                  
      6-  6pts                  
      8-  4pts                  
     10-  13pts                 
     11-  14pts                 
     12-  14pts                 
     13-  15pts                 
                              
 He played 14 games           
 8 games were 15pts and under 
 Games 14-16 he had over 20pts

 

not sure why you chose "15" as the number, but just for the record: zeke played 16 games, and 9 of his games were under 15 points (standard scoring).

carson's adp last year was rounds 8-10, $2-$4 in auction. this year, he's at 5.01 currently, and if penny talk keeps his ADP low carson seems like a value pick with a floor of 15 touches per game (again, standard scoring works best because the majority of his touches are rushing attempts).

not suggesting carson is equal to zeke in talent or opportunity, but they do share that 4.7 yards per attempt, and this may further highlight is value.

you could do a lot worse for an RB2 coming at that round 5 price tag. just sayin'.

 

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 Game 1-  10pts                 
      2 -  2pts                  
      6-  6pts                  
      8-  4pts                  
     10-  13pts                 
     11-  14pts                 
     12-  14pts                 
     13-  15pts                 
                              
 He played 14 games           
 8 games were 15pts and under 
 Games 14-16 he had over 20pts

 

 It wasn't until game 10 he had predictable double digit point production

So as I said his production was not predictable for 10 GAMES and I don't subscribe to the EVERY OTHER WEEK forecast for my lineup because you can easily get whipsawed and burned; there is no EVERY OTHER WEEK model  😂.

He was designated the teams rb1 coming out of training camp and he didnt begin to consistently perform like one until the fantasy playoffs hit and he ultimately finished as an rb2 for the season 

Gotcha - so you consider any game 15 points or less as bad?  Ok I guess that's why I was confused. I consider 10-15 to be pretty solid, and over 15 as a good game. 

 

So by your standard I guess all of these players were unpredictable and burned you as well, and will be avoided next season:

James White: 9 "bad" games

David Johnson: 9 "bad" games

Joe Mixon: 7 "bad" games

Phillip Lindsay: 8 "bad" games

Jordan Howard: 12 "bad" games

Kenyan Drake: 11 "bad" games

Tevin Coleman: 12 " bad" games

Marlon Mack: 8 "bad" games

Derrick Henry: 12 " bad" games

Tarik Cohen: 9 "bad" games

Matt Breida: 13 "bad" games

Austin Ekeler: 11 "bad" games

Aaron Jones: 6 "bad" games

Lamar Miller: 12 "bad" games

Adrian Peterson: 11 "bad" games

 

Damn that's a lot of RBs to avoid man - I hope you can find a way to end up with a combo of Barkley, Kamara, CMC, Zeke on your team, otherwise you're going to be disappointed.  I don't think Carson was any more or less predictable than any RB outside of the Top 6 or 7 guys.    

 

 

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Just now, Sack Exchange said:

 

not sure why you chose "15" as the number, but just for the record: zeke played 16 games, and 9 of his games were under 15 points (standard scoring).

carson's adp last year was rounds 8-10, $2-$4 in auction. this year, he's at 5.01 currently, and if penny talk keeps his ADP low carson seems like a value pick with a floor of 15 touches per game (again, standard scoring works best because the majority of his touches are rushing attempts).

not suggesting carson is equal to zeke in talent or opportunity, but they do share that 4.7 yards per attempt, and this may further highlight is value.

you could do a lot worse for an RB2 coming at that round 5 price tag. just sayin'.

 

I think he was using PPR for scoring, but take a look at my post above.  The dude is going to have a hard time finding RBs he likes since only about 7 RBs had 5 or less "bad" games (under 15) in PPR last year.  As I said, Carson wasn't any more or less predictable or consistent than any of the RBs outside of the top 6 or 7 guys.   

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I'm tickled to death with 15pts from an RB2. I mean that't 90 rush yards and a td

 

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12 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I'm tickled to death with 15pts from an RB2. I mean that't 90 rush yards and a td

 

1440 yards and 16 TDs over 16 games 😂

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12 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

1440 yards and 16 TDs over 16 games 😂

 

NOT ENOUGH! if i don't see 2000 all-purpose yards from my RB2, the season is shot.

InexperiencedOblongBarnowl-max-1mb.gif

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Just for fun (and because it's a slow Friday at the office) here are the Standard Deviations of the top 28 RBs from last year PPR: (excluding games not played)

Barkley: 7.63

Gurley: 8.12

CMC: 9.08

Kamara: 10.78

Zeke: 8.70

Gordon: 7.54

Conner: 10.30

Hunt: 9.68

Mixon: 8.44

David Johnson: 7.14

James White: 8.23

Marlon Mack: 9.40

Jordan Howard: 6.01

Lamar Miller: 5.95

Aaron Jones: 9.41

Matt Breida: 8.05

Austin Ekeler: 6.79

TJ Yeldon: 7.26

Dalvin Cook: 7.74

Dion Lewis: 6.61

Nyheim Hines: 6.18

Tarik Cohen: 9.64

Phillip Lindsay: 7.01

Kenyan Drake: 7.53

Derrick Henry: 11.74

Nick Chubb (from when he was the starter): 9.25

Tevin Coleman: 7.25

Adrian Peterson: 7.20

Jalen Richard: 4.80

Chris Carson: 7.34

 

So in terms of consistency, Carson ranks about middle of the pack.  11 RBs had lower standard deviations.  Let's look at those 11 RBs and Carson:

David Johnson: 246.7 points - 15.4 PPG

Jordan Howard: 180 points - 11.3 PPG

Lamar Miller: 172.6 points - 12.3 PPG

Austin Ekeler: 168.8 points - 12.1 PPG

TJ Yeldon: 173.1 points - 12.4 PPG

Dion Lewis: 160.7 points - 10 PPG

Nyheim Hines: 160.9 points - 10.1 PPG

Phillip Lindsay: 222.8 points - 14.9 PPG

Tevin Coleman: 193.6 points - 12.1 PPG

Adrian Peterson: 189 points - 11.8 PPG

Jalen Richard: 156.6 points - 9.8 PPG

Chris Carson: 201.4 points - 14.4 PPG

 

So, out of the 11 RBs with the lowest standard deviations, Carson ranks #3 in total points, and #3 in PPG.  You would obviously expect the top dogs (Barkley, Zeke, etc.) to have higher standard deviations since their averages and outputs are higher, but when you look at these lower RB1s/RB2 level guys, I would argue Carson, DJ and Lindsay were the best in terms of output and consistency.  So to say Carson "burned you" because he was inconsistent, is incorrect.  Additionally, since DJ was drafted as a top 3 pick last year, and Carson had an ADP of 69 overall, I would say Carson (next to Lindsay of course) was one of the best "bang for your buck" RBs last year in terms of combining consistency with output.

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Cant the standard deviation be misconstrued? Because the deviation counts how erratic a player from their average ppg. But no one cares if they score 15pts over their average which would still raise their standard deviation. This would surely explain why guys like barkely and CMC have larger deviations because they almost never had low score weeks but did explode a few times.  Or am I wrong?

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14 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Cant the standard deviation be misconstrued? Because the deviation counts how erratic a player from their average ppg. But no one cares if they score 15pts over their average which would still raise their standard deviation. This would surely explain why guys like barkely and CMC have larger deviations because they almost never had low score weeks but did explode a few times.  Or am I wrong?

 

i agree that you can't place too much value on standard deviation, but i think the key point in @Fort4242 's post is the conclusion: carson (and lindsay) were outstanding values.

basically, every owner in the league is starting with the same wallet (be it snake or auction, differing only with keeper leagues), and it's these value picks that tip the scales and propel teams into league playoffs.

if penny can help to keep carson's adp low enough, those 15+ carries per game (and goal line opportunities) is gold at pick #69 overall. (this is using myfantasyleague.com and their most recent 171 drafts, a composite of PPR, half-PPR and standard scoring.) chris carson is sandwiched between david njoku and matt ryan; if you're picking at this position you're looking at kareem hunt, tyler lockett, jameis winston, alshon jeffrey, james white, sammy watkins, will fuller, jordan howard, jerrick mckinnon.

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2 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

not sure why you chose "15" as the number, but just for the record: zeke played 16 games, and 9 of his games were under 15 points (standard scoring).

carson's adp last year was rounds 8-10, $2-$4 in auction. this year, he's at 5.01 currently, and if penny talk keeps his ADP low carson seems like a value pick with a floor of 15 touches per game (again, standard scoring works best because the majority of his touches are rushing attempts).

not suggesting carson is equal to zeke in talent or opportunity, but they do share that 4.7 yards per attempt, and this may further highlight is value.

you could do a lot worse for an RB2 coming at that round 5 price tag. just sayin'.

 

15 is my min cutoff in ppr for a rb  because a decent wr2 can get you that with no TD  your cutoff may vary..  The norm these days is ppr unless stated its std  or half point ppr scoring it's assummed  the  points refer to ppr. if i want 12pts or less per week predictable scoring out of my rb1 then I would draft lamar miller . 🤪

I get this forum has an unhealthy obsession the SEA rb's because everyone is praying for beastmode 2.0 but still waiting.

Carson is really a flex in my view until we see how much of the running game schotty converts to his scheme this year . 

I churn rb's until I find a winner which explains why I have owned carson-davis- penney.  I expect volatility in the SEA again this season regardless of the carson vs penney fanboys wars because Petey Boy Carroll will give them all touches and be unpredictable in their usage week to week until he is happy  with the results. 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Cant the standard deviation be misconstrued? Because the deviation counts how erratic a player from their average ppg. But no one cares if they score 15pts over their average which would still raise their standard deviation. This would surely explain why guys like barkely and CMC have larger deviations because they almost never had low score weeks but did explode a few times.  Or am I wrong?

Yes that is correct, however I outlined that in my post.  I mentioned that Barkley, Zeke, CMC etc. have higher Standard Deviations because their output is much higher.  Their average games were higher in general and added on top were explosions which made their SD higher.  Like for example, Jalen Richard had the lowest Std Dev of all RBs measured, however that does not alone mean he was worth anything because his production was consistently low, as noted in my post.  So I am not simply saying "RB X had a low Std Dev therefore they were a good RB for fantasy."  I was looking at 2 factors - standard deviation and points, which of the 12 RBs I analyzed, Johnson, Carson and Lindsay gave you the highest production along with consistency.  David Johnson was a top 3 pick last year, so while he was consistent with a decent output, he didn't really return on his draft capital.  At the same time, Carson and Lindsay were drafted in lower rounds, so one could argue Carson and Lindsay provided the best value in 2018 in regards to production and consistency, which is NOT what dashoe had said.  He made the claim that Carson was inconsistent and burned owners in 2018, which wasn't true.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

So, out of the 11 RBs with the lowest standard deviations, Carson ranks #3 in total points, and #3 in PPG.  You would obviously expect the top dogs (Barkley, Zeke, etc.) to have higher standard deviations since their averages and outputs are higher, but when you look at these lower RB1s/RB2 level guys, I would argue Carson, DJ and Lindsay were the best in terms of output and consistency.  So to say Carson "burned you" because he was inconsistent, is incorrect.  Additionally, since DJ was drafted as a top 3 pick last year, and Carson had an ADP of 69 overall, I would say Carson (next to Lindsay of course) was one of the best "bang for your buck" RBs last year in terms of combining consistency with output.

 

Here let me help you step away a bit from your seasonal averages  which really don't mean much if you are planning a lineup for the week..

Carson burned you if you started him the firs t 10  games of the season because you could not place him in your lineup and predict a certain outcome; which you should be able to do for a starting NFL rb sharing a backfield with a lost rookie and a journeyman.  What would you get 4pts? 8pts? 20pts? how many touches 0. 5. 15, 20? Would he play the whole games? Would he stay healthy?  Will Petey move him to special teams because he looked gassed? Why the heck is Davis getting 40% mkt share? Why is penney even on the field if he doesnt know the offense?

I know if  Lamar Miller is the starting rb on his team, his touches are very predictable even though his production blows vs those touches. 

THAT's what your seasonal averages and std deviations WON'T tell you.  ThATS's what made Carson unpredictable for 10 weeks., His situation was unpredictable because  the coaching and the offense were unpredictable.  

Also your method is BACKWARDS LOOKING meaning you didnt have this information last season when you were planning your lineups. .  . so great hindsight analysis but for those of us in deciding to start Carson in real time it didnt exist 😂👀

Not sure why you are not grasping this concept. 🤨

Edited by dashoe
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Posted (edited)

That's true I made this argument with jordan Howard's 2017 season last year. He finished rb10 I believe but man he had a lot of games that crushed your week.

But you paid alot more for a jordan howard than you do Carson. I think that's the main point here.

Edited by Stonej14

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