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Chris Carson 2019 Outlook

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47 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Barkley, Zeke, kamara, cmac, Cook, Chubb, Bell, DJ, Gurley (maybe) and then it’s carson fournette and Henry in my opinion. 

 

I would put Carson over DJ and Gurley.  DJ's oline is terrible.  Gurley gets half the carries he used to get.  Could argue Carson over Bell.  

For myself, it's not just about the player.  It's about what the offense setup.  Carson benefits with Wilson which helps to over trump the typical big RB names.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Proteus said:

Man you guys are lucky you have time to circ jerk over a Thursday game on a Friday instead of worrying yourself sick like the rest of us

It’s the only reason I’m in here.  I feel if I acknowledge that I messed up by not taking Carson, I can somewhat absolve myself for all my crappy picks that I took in front of him.

Edited by K197040
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1 hour ago, eg4190 said:

 

I think we do need to discuss some of the “problems” with the Seahawks offense and the very real way they lower Carson’s ceiling. This is one of them — when Wilson doesn’t see the big play down the field, his instinct is to run and slide. He’s not a checkdown artist. Running and sliding picks up the same yards with less risk of a turnover. It also carries less risk of Carson getting easy PPR points.

 

If the only time you ever watched the Seahawks was on TNF then I can understand how this conclusion is easily come to, but as someone who watches him every Sunday, the reality is he hasn't scrambled like that for years. Look at Russ' rushing attempts and totals year by year:

2012: 94 attempts, 489 yards

2013: 96 attempts, 539 yards

2014: 118 attempts, 849 yards

2015: 103 attempts, 553 yards

2016: 72 attempts, 259 yards

2017: 95 attempts, 586 yards

2018: 67 attempts 376 yards

 

You can see the downward trend in rushing, outside of 2017 where Seattle was devastated by RB injuries and Wilson had to completely carry the offense.  Games like the Rams are not the norm to expect from Russ and how it affects Carson.  We have already seen a more concerted effort this year to throw the ball to RBs more than they have been, but it's never going to be a giant staple within the offense - it's just not how Pete wants his offense to run, for better or worse.  I think it is more accurate to say that when the play breaks down and Russ doesn't like what he sees from the designed play, he's largely looking down the field for the big play, and then for anyone open really, and as a last resort he will run and slide.  He doesn't extend the play to run first though.

 

1 hour ago, eg4190 said:

A related thing is, Wilson is not a dink-and-dunker. On second and short, he’s not looking to just barely pick up the first down with a quick pass to Carson. He’s looking to the end zone. When those plays connect (think Lockett’s awesome catch last night), it means one less scoring opportunity for Carson.

Some offenses get into the red zone and then inch their way up until the RB gets a chance to walk it in. That happens sometimes with the Seahawks, but it’s not really how their offense tends to score.

 

I do completely agree with this assessment.  It was something I really took notice of after owning Carson last year.  Seattle loves the explosive plays in the passing game, and a fair share of those connect for TDs.  Carson isn't really an explosive play home run hitter either, so its unlikely to get those from him.  I wouldn't call him a "flashy" player on your roster but he should consistently produce points.  If he ever has a big day it'll likely be due to scoring many TDs rather than a long TD.  I'm a big fan of consistency so its awesome having him on my team, personally :)

 

1 hour ago, eg4190 said:

And then there’s Carson’s tendency to grind out the tough yards and pull himself out of the game when they get to the red zone. He’s been doing this a disturbing number of times.

 

I have noticed this as well, but I don't think its inherently a bad thing.  It does and can limit his scoring chances, yes - but I think somewhere along the road last year both he and the team found a balance in usage to keep him healthy and available, because the running offense in particular doesn't look or feel the same without him.  So if he has to take himself out to keep himself healthy in the long run, I'm all for it.  I'd personally rather be able to play him every week instead of grabbing a couple or few extra TDs for the year, and I'm pretty sure both he and the team feel the same way.

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I picked Sony over Carson.  For some reason I thought Sony would the more explosive player in a better offense as opposed to Carson’s old school style.  O well

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12 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Am I the only Carson owner whose heart literally stopped for two seconds when he nearly botched that TD reception? Dude, if you are ever going to catch a ball cleanly, that would be it.

I mostly agree with @esprits4s above me. He had a great night on the field but was virtually invisible in the passing game. In PPR formats, you're happy with his production last night but a couple more receptions on the stat sheet would really give you a lot more confidence going forward. 

 

Wilson only had to complete 17 passes last game (because of this stud) and one of them was Carson's TD. This wasn't a case of being invisible as much as it was that he literally dominated the game rushing and wasn't needed in the passing game. He's seeing plenty of targets and making some nice catches along the way.

I know you can't just ignore things that've happened to cherry-pick stats so I'm not going to erase the fumbles, but that he's sitting at RB 16 ppg with three fumbles and having sat out half a game (as a result of the 3rd) is incredible. This guy is a no-doubt RB1 in all formats. He's even got some rushing TD regression coming (not a single one yet this season, which is an absolute anomaly).

Some may say "yes, but he's a fumble waiting to happen" to which I say "doesn't matter, this coaching staff has his back more than any other situation I've seen". (Now, that said, please don't fumble for at least another 3-4 games after you've put to bed that it's a chronic issue!)

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7 hours ago, indyrckstar said:

 

I would put Carson over DJ and Gurley.  DJ's oline is terrible.  Gurley gets half the carries he used to get.  Could argue Carson over Bell.  

For myself, it's not just about the player.  It's about what the offense setup.  Carson benefits with Wilson which helps to over trump the typical big RB names.

 

In PPR, the fact that Bell/DJ can and do get double digit targets in some games separates them from Carson. That said, I was more than happy to let DJ go in a trade and was unwilling to swap him out for Carson. I am mostly drawn to the consistency of Carson's game. DJ is going to be stuffed running more often than not, so he's dependent on having big receiving games, which will be hit or miss. Bell will even out once they get Darnold back from his pretty-boy disease. I'd take him over Carson at this point, largely because of the receiving prowess and that he'll be running behind mid-tier o-line so rushing won't be abysmal.

Bell > Carson (Bell gets more targets and is just as consistent)

Carson > DJ (DJ has more targets, but Carson's consistency wins out for me)

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5 hours ago, TheDude4bides said:

 

In PPR, the fact that Bell/DJ can and do get double digit targets in some games separates them from Carson. That said, I was more than happy to let DJ go in a trade and was unwilling to swap him out for Carson. I am mostly drawn to the consistency of Carson's game. DJ is going to be stuffed running more often than not, so he's dependent on having big receiving games, which will be hit or miss. Bell will even out once they get Darnold back from his pretty-boy disease. I'd take him over Carson at this point, largely because of the receiving prowess and that he'll be running behind mid-tier o-line so rushing won't be abysmal.

Bell > Carson (Bell gets more targets and is just as consistent)

Carson > DJ (DJ has more targets, but Carson's consistency wins out for me)

 

I could see that with Bell once Darnold comes back.  One thing to be concern about is his YPC.  In every game, it's below 4 yards.  

 

 

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The GOAT. Has one of the worst backups of all-time behind him. This dude will eat all year long

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20 minutes ago, owenmills said:

The GOAT. Has one of the worst backups of all-time behind him. This dude will eat all year long

He will get hurt before his 8th game, penny will play the rest of the way. I love watching Carson's style as a football fan but he isn't gonna last.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, oban14 said:

He will get hurt before his 8th game, penny will play the rest of the way. I love watching Carson's style as a football fan but he isn't gonna last.

I’m sure if CC got hurt Penny would not get the touches Carson gets. I could see maybe half the workload but Seattle would have to pass way more due to lack of a running game. Penny isn’t a good cuff he’s JAG.

Edited by Krambone
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23 hours ago, Bryce84 said:

 

If the only time you ever watched the Seahawks was on TNF then I can understand how this conclusion is easily come to, but as someone who watches him every Sunday, the reality is he hasn't scrambled like that for years. Look at Russ' rushing attempts and totals year by year:

2012: 94 attempts, 489 yards

2013: 96 attempts, 539 yards

2014: 118 attempts, 849 yards

2015: 103 attempts, 553 yards

2016: 72 attempts, 259 yards

2017: 95 attempts, 586 yards

2018: 67 attempts 376 yards

 

You can see the downward trend in rushing, outside of 2017 where Seattle was devastated by RB injuries and Wilson had to completely carry the offense.  Games like the Rams are not the norm to expect from Russ and how it affects Carson.  We have already seen a more concerted effort this year to throw the ball to RBs more than they have been, but it's never going to be a giant staple within the offense - it's just not how Pete wants his offense to run, for better or worse.  I think it is more accurate to say that when the play breaks down and Russ doesn't like what he sees from the designed play, he's largely looking down the field for the big play, and then for anyone open really, and as a last resort he will run and slide.  He doesn't extend the play to run first though.

 

 

I do completely agree with this assessment.  It was something I really took notice of after owning Carson last year.  Seattle loves the explosive plays in the passing game, and a fair share of those connect for TDs.  Carson isn't really an explosive play home run hitter either, so its unlikely to get those from him.  I wouldn't call him a "flashy" player on your roster but he should consistently produce points.  If he ever has a big day it'll likely be due to scoring many TDs rather than a long TD.  I'm a big fan of consistency so its awesome having him on my team, personally :)

 

 

I have noticed this as well, but I don't think its inherently a bad thing.  It does and can limit his scoring chances, yes - but I think somewhere along the road last year both he and the team found a balance in usage to keep him healthy and available, because the running offense in particular doesn't look or feel the same without him.  So if he has to take himself out to keep himself healthy in the long run, I'm all for it.  I'd personally rather be able to play him every week instead of grabbing a couple or few extra TDs for the year, and I'm pretty sure both he and the team feel the same way.

 

Wilson had a high ankle sprain for several weeks in 2016. Come on man.

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I honestly think Carson will finish in the vicinity of RB10 this season. I heard that he changed the spot he's carrying the ball at, and it should help eliminate the fumbling. Any starting RB can get injured with the absurd poundings they take, so there's no real reason to expect Carson to miss extended time as opposed to any other RB1-RB2. Over the last calendar year lots of the current RB1s have missed time with injuries. As long as Wilson's out there and defenses can't oversell against the run, Carson will have good opportunities. Penny is at best a change of pace back for the foreseeable future, maybe with an upside/usage potential like Tevin Coleman had when he was RB 1-A to Devonta Freeman in Atlanta. But Penny is also at risk of losing touches to Prosise in that department.

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Posted (edited)

All Carson owners grab Penny when he is dropped this week, cant put a price on insurance (although Geico, Allstate etc sure as heck try to)

Edited by kmoore1521

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6 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Sneak what in? Lol you're the one who said Penny was just as good as Carson. Not even Penny's mom believes that. But if you want to go back on that hot take and say that Carson only looked so good because Penny "just came off IR into a short week" well.... you go right ahead.

Carson also came off a short week fwiw. And he got 27 carries a few days after getting 22 carries!

 

Talent and current involvement in the system aren't the exact same thing... Hence the vast majority of posters talking to me like I'm crazy for saying this.  Carson drops that wide open receiving TD and his point total plummet.  Everyone talks about how they watch every Seahawks snap and I clearly must not watch but none of them dare brings up how bad Carson is at catching the football.

 

Again I think he's a really good runner between the tackles but after that his fantasy game is pretty limited.  Penny will continue to gain more snap share and The Seahawks will see they are better suited with the ball in the hands of Russ Wilson.  This last sentence is huge and going vastly over looked by all the Carson fanboys.  So again let me define this as clear as day.

 

I think Carson's value will tapper off fairly drastically over the next few weeks and into the fantasy playoffs.  No he won't be useless but for the rest of the season I see the following running backs all scoring equal if not more total points in PPR:

Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Phillip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, and why not I'll even say Ronald Jones II too.  Keep in mind most people wouldn't trade Chris Carson straight up for any of these guys so in Vegas I'd be getting probably +150 if not more on these RBs.  If it were to start today where these RBs all get a 10% increase in games played than Carson as Carson already played this week I would think it would be close to even money.

 

I also think Austin Ekeler (even with Melvin back), Jordan Howard, Chris Thompson, and Duke Johnson will all prove to be better draft values in PPR than Chris Carson.  Hell I'm near 100% certain Ekeler will end the season with a better game average than Carson I am also pretty certain you all will be surprised with how close their production is ROS.

 

Right now you drafted Carson anywhere from the 3rd to the 4th round, most likely you drafted him in the 25-35 pick range, he went 24th overall in my 12 team PPR and 31st in my 10 team PPR.  Drafted well before all of the names I listed above (Kerryon's ADP was very close to Carson's)... So if you can cash in on him and get good value I'd suggest doing so.

 

I just noticed the Penny thread got locked my post got deleted late Saturday night for some reason?  But it's probably better suited in here so here it is.  Luickly for me I always have 9 tabs left opened and I had it still opened on another tab so I could copy and paste it.  I know my calls are far less effective now that most of the names I listed went off. 

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Penny is probably a really fit guy but he looks like a fat little turd out there compared to Carson.  Carson is just a beastly man.  

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12 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

  Everyone talks about how they watch every Seahawks snap and I clearly must not watch but none of them dare brings up how bad Carson is at catching the football.

17 targets/15 receptions on the season, he's not bad at catching the football.

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55 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Penny is probably a really fit guy but he looks like a fat little turd out there compared to Carson.  Carson is just a beastly man.  

 

Penny did seem to have some extra pudge on him on Thursday... Could have just put on some weight from the injury.

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I’m not sure why I even click on those 30sec vids on the ESPN app but the headline was “Bell hesitant to start Carson Week 6”, so I just NEEDED to see what she could come up with.. if you want to watch 30 seconds of stupid, go watch that. 

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9 minutes ago, Bringthesonicsback said:

I’m not sure why I even click on those 30sec vids on the ESPN app but the headline was “Bell hesitant to start Carson Week 6”, so I just NEEDED to see what she could come up with.. if you want to watch 30 seconds of stupid, go watch that. 

I watched the stream on YouTube today and she's also hesitant because he hasn't had a rushing TD since week 1. Last week he could have had a Rushing TD but he literally killed himself to get them to goal line and had to be taken out to catch his breath.

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Just read that Carson had a limited practice today with a shoulder issue.  It's probably minor but all of a sudden it looks like a lot of starting rb's are nicked up and it could end up turning into the year of the handcuff.

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Not unexpected. All these RB injuries shouldn't be disregarded but it is getting deeper into the season and guys are going to start taking some days off with nonsense injuries. The dude runs so violently that i'd be surprised if he didn't start popping up on reports with minor injuries to give him rest days. Same goes for a lot of other players.

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Oh great, just another excuse for the Penny owners to try and convince themselves everyone that their lottery ticket is about to hit.

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