The 7th Beatles

Odell Beckham Jr. 2019 Outlook

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Before the 49ers game, I thought this guy was plug and play matchup proof (at least some garbage time stats in the worst case). Takes a lot of faith to believe Mayfield will be much different against the Patriots after their pass rush had Darnold seeing ghosts. I mean it could happen with his talent so his ceiling is still high but now his floor is very low too. Depends who you bench him for.

 

 

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I'm quite sure every team in the NFL wants nothing more than to punch NE in the mouth so hard.

CLE does not have the mental acuity to achieve such a task. They are in complete disarray when playing far inferior teams. It will be ugly.

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3 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

I'm leaning strongly toward benching him this week no doubt.

Same, pretty sure he’s riding pine. 
Bust

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What do Alex Erickson, Zac Pascal, Mack Hollins, and Antonio Brown all have in common?

 

 

 

 

They all have more red zone targets than OBJ this year. There’s no way this trend continues as during his 4 full previous seasons he had 26, 21, 22 and 27, regression to the mean is coming and his value will go up.

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21 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

What do Alex Erickson, Zac Pascal, Mack Hollins, and Antonio Brown all have in common?

 

 

 

 

They all have more red zone targets than OBJ this year. There’s no way this trend continues as during his 4 full previous seasons he had 26, 21, 22 and 27, regression to the mean is coming and his value will go up.

I don’t buy that argument.  Totally different team.  

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Yeah I’m leaning toward starting Cooks (who has also been ugly) over OBJ this week. And I hate it so much.

I just don’t see how the Pats D + Gilmore on OBJ goes decent in any scenario. 

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17 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I don’t buy that argument.  Totally different team.  

He’s been one of the best WRs at scoring TDs since coming into the league. The way you score TDs is by getting redzone targets so you believe one of 2 things:

1. He’s simply forgotten how to score TDs

2. Freddie Kitchen is so clueless, that even he refuses to use OBJ in the redzone, who coming into the season had scored 44 TDs in 56 games 

Landry has 8 redzone targets, Chubb and OBJ have 4, Damion Ratley and Demetrius Harris both have 3. You believe that come the end of the season Landry will have double the redzone targets and some no name players will put up comparable redzone targets for the Browns?

Edited by Ddam2013

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8 hours ago, LarryDavid said:

Yeah I’m leaning toward starting Cooks (who has also been ugly) over OBJ this week. And I hate it so much.

I just don’t see how the Pats D + Gilmore on OBJ goes decent in any scenario. 

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9 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

What do Alex Erickson, Zac Pascal, Mack Hollins, and Antonio Brown all have in common?

 

 

 

 

They all have more red zone targets than OBJ this year. There’s no way this trend continues as during his 4 full previous seasons he had 26, 21, 22 and 27, regression to the mean is coming and his value will go up.

Well, I mean that was with a different team. So, his history doesn't really matter with his new team.

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18 hours ago, vercrazy said:

 

It's a funny comment, but OBJ has only played the Patriots once (Week 10, 2015: Posted Line of 12/4/104/1).

vs Malcolm Butler 

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37 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

Every time= one career game 🤔🙄


And granted he only caught 1/3 of his targets, but he went 4/104/1 🤷‍♂️

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10 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

He’s been one of the best WRs at scoring TDs since coming into the league. The way you score TDs is by getting redzone targets so you believe one of 2 things:

1. He’s simply forgotten how to score TDs

2. Freddie Kitchen is so clueless, that even he refuses to use OBJ in the redzone, who coming into the season had scored 44 TDs in 56 games 

Landry has 8 redzone targets, Chubb and OBJ have 4, Damion Ratley and Demetrius Harris both have 3. You believe that come the end of the season Landry will have double the redzone targets and some no name players will put up comparable redzone targets for the Browns?

I believe #2.  

Also, Beckham was never on a team that had an RB like Chubb and a WR2 like Landry.

I think things will get better for OBJ but I don't believe your comment about regressing to his previous mean.

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48 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I believe #2.  

Also, Beckham was never on a team that had an RB like Chubb and a WR2 like Landry.

I think things will get better for OBJ but I don't believe your comment about regressing to his previous mean.

Barkley is much better than Chubb.

I also think things will get better and regressing to the mean may not have been the correct choice here, all I meant was his TDs will go up. He’s still on pace for almost 80 and 1200 so it’s not like he’s struggling in yards or receptions just TDs.

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

Beckham was never on a team that had an RB like Chubb

Huh? I think it comes down to Mayfield just not being as good as everyone expected. He is pulling a Mariota: dragging down the offensive talent of the entire team. 

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His match ups going forward thru week 13 are kinda brutal. He gets 3 of the top 5 fantasy defenses (NE, Denver, & Buff) vs WR's and then Pitt, Mia (good) & @Pitt.   With the way the Browns have played I don't have too much confidence in him.  He's OBJ so he has the talent to be match up proof, but do Mayfield & the Browns?

On the plus side, his playoff schedule is sweet.

W13 Cincy

W14 Zona

W15 Balt

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3 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

Barkley is much better than Chubb.

I also think things will get better and regressing to the mean may not have been the correct choice here, all I meant was his TDs will go up. He’s still on pace for almost 80 and 1200 so it’s not like he’s struggling in yards or receptions just TDs.

 

You were using his full seasons in your "regression to the mean" stats.   I was talking about the same seasons you were.

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3 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Huh? I think it comes down to Mayfield just not being as good as everyone expected. He is pulling a Mariota: dragging down the offensive talent of the entire team. 

 

QFT

 

OBJ is an elite WR and is plagued by atrocious QB play. Even with a B- QB at the helm, I think OBJ would put up respectable numbers. This is just downright pathetic and boils down to Baker not being a good enough QB to provide OBJ with opportunity. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Huh? I think it comes down to Mayfield just not being as good as everyone expected. He is pulling a Mariota: dragging down the offensive talent of the entire team. 

See above regarding the RB comment.

I agree that Baker has a lot to do with it.  But with Landry in the middle, I haven't seen them run OBJ on very many slants.  
 

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15 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

You were using his full seasons in your "regression to the mean" stats.   I was talking about the same seasons you were.

I included last year he had 21

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47 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

I included last year he had 21

Ok.  Sorry, I just read your "full season" comment.  I looked and saw 18 targets inside the 20 last year.

Regardless, we can agree to disagree on him regressing to the mean.

And I'll hope that I'm wrong. 

Edited by K197040

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Disclaimer, I have no choice but to start OBJ but do think that during the hiatus the Browns put all efforts into this game of course. They will have some trickery, a bunch of little hitches, reverses, etc. I think OBJ is gonna touch the ball a lot and based on volume in a PPR, I think he has a nice day. 15 points bank, folks!

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