Ffguy0087

Mike Evans 2019 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Look, saying Godwin is a better player than Evans at this point is REALLY premature but I damn well will say he is a more complete player than Evans. He can run any route and run it extremely well. While Evans has a solid route tree, he is mainly a huge deep threat. This is why you get those 40+ games and then duds. I doubt they put their best corner on Godwin as they'll probably opt to have him take away the deep ball completely from Evans thus rendering him very limited. Even if they put Bradburry on Godwin he will still get those slants and short routes while Evans will burn some scrub deep.

I can accept that. It's way better than some of the other comments I've seen. Even in the last game versus the Saints, Evans was also doubled in the slot. They were targeting him everywhere. People seem to want to slam the guy for being seen as the greatest threat on the team. Defenses don't see Godwin as a threat.

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10 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

I can accept that. It's way better than some of the other comments I've seen. Even in the last game versus the Saints, Evans was also doubled in the slot. They were targeting him everywhere. People seem to want to slam the guy for being seen as the greatest threat on the team. Defenses don't see Godwin as a threat.

I don't know about the whole "complete player" analysis, I'll leave that to smarter minds than myself.

However, given Jameis's past, shall we call them "inconsistencies" and how comfortable he has looked with Godwin as a safety valve this year, I would certainly try to disrupt that if I were calling a defense.

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Hes been in and out of my lineup all week lol I'm so torn. I'm not going to go into a CSB type of thing, but there are one or 2 WR2s that have been putting up great numbers so far that I'm highly considering over him. Might just flip a quarter

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I'm actually thinking about swapping him out for someone playing in the same game, DJ Moore.  I don't know though.  Doesn't it always seem that whenever the entire industry says he will bust that he turns in a good game.  Plus, don't we think that they will force feed him.

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4 minutes ago, Islanderman said:

Plus, don't we think that they will force feed him.

Certainly seems that way given quotes from Jameis and Arians this week.

But that could just be coachspeak.

It's a gamble.

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The fact that owners who took him in the 2nd round could realistically miss his two biggest games (assuming he has a nice day this week) of the season by benching him is just fantastic hah #inmylineup

Edited by kmoore1521
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I think fantasy owners probably need to have drafted wr depth very early, or play in smaller leagues for benching him to be more than a passing thought. Not really expecting too much but can't consider benching him and him blowing up. 

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You can't bench Mike Evans.  If you do, you might as well trade him for someone you won't bench.  I get it, he's coming off a goose egg, playing a tough match-up against a team that has limited his production historically, and it's a London game kicking off at 9:30am eastern.  All that said, Mike Evans is the kind of player that can make you regret benching him in one single play.  That's all it takes.

 

The Bucs are on bye next week.  If you are going to bench him expecting a poor performance, just go ahead and trade him for someone that can help you win week 6 and 7.  Otherwise, you are in a lose-lose situation with Evans on your bench the next two weeks.  Either you are proven right and he puts up a dud this week, which would only further decrease his trade value which would have no chance to recover until after week 8 at the earliest.  Or you are wrong and you leave a Mike Evans boom day on your bench.  If you really think he's not worth starting, move him now.  I wouldn't call it a sell low if you don't expect him to put up start worthy stats.  His name value and the fact he just put up 60 points in weeks 3 and 4 should still net you a decent player in return.

Edited by Trifecta
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My WR core is pretty solid so I can afford benching him I think (OBJ, K. Allen, Evans, Lockett, Ridley)

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1 hour ago, WVFalcon said:

My WR core is pretty solid so I can afford benching him I think (OBJ, K. Allen, Evans, Lockett, Ridley)

The only sure thing so far is Lockett for you. Not sure how your league is set up, but I'd start Allen/Evans/Lockett every week. OBJ and Ridley have the biggest issues out of your WR corps.

Edited by FitzMagic

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33 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

The only sure thing so far is Lockett for you. Not sure how your league is set up, but I'd start Allen/Evans/Lockett every week. OBJ and Ridley have the biggest issues out of your WR corps.

I sort of agree, but Evans history of playing against Bradberry has swayed me against him this week. He hasn't had a good game against him in years. I'm gambling that OBJ does something week against the injury ridden browns secondary. I will start Evans most weeks though. I think it's been fairly easy to predict the games he will do good and do bad based on matchups. He obviously doesn't do that well against top corners. This is another Godwin week in my opinion.

Edited by WVFalcon

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1 hour ago, WVFalcon said:

I sort of agree, but Evans history of playing against Bradberry has swayed me against him this week. He hasn't had a good game against him in years. I'm gambling that OBJ does something week against the injury ridden browns secondary. I will start Evans most weeks though. I think it's been fairly easy to predict the games he will do good and do bad based on matchups. He obviously doesn't do that well against top corners. This is another Godwin week in my opinion.

 

Doing the same thing here. Benching him for Edelman and/or Larry Fitz who has much higher floors and larger upsides this week

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I just want all of those on the fence to bench him already.  It increases the likelihood the fantasy gods crush you for sitting your 2nd round pick and graces those who left in with a good stat line....

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9 minutes ago, jjbooda said:

I just want all of those on the fence to bench him already.  It increases the likelihood the fantasy gods crush you for sitting your 2nd round pick and graces those who left in with a good stat line....

The fantasy gods didn't crush me last week though. Actually won me the week by not starting him.

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Benching Evans this week to me means saying that his three most recent games against James Bradberry, and last week against New Orleans, is more influential to me than a career of 82 games where he is 7th leading receiver in average receiving yards per game in NFL history.

I respect the decision, but to me, it's no contest.  I vote big sample size over small.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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Whilst I don't want to subscribe to recency bias, by fading the importance of his current form you potentially open yourself to picking players based on former, and maybe not to be seen again, glories.

 

He's an irritating player to own, that's for sure.

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1 hour ago, fjthegrey said:

Whilst I don't want to subscribe to recency bias, by fading the importance of his current form you potentially open yourself to picking players based on former, and maybe not to be seen again, glories.

 

He's an irritating player to own, that's for sure.

If you play in .5 PPR and own a WR not named Michael Thomas, he has given you a single digit week or a DNP.

I get it, goose eggs are not fun.

But the entire position of WR is a high variable proposition.  You must gamble.  On the whole, Mike Evans has been a better bet than all but 12 WRs in that format, even with the 0, this season, and that has been the case in three out of the past four seasons he's played.

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Never, ever, bench Mike Evans.  Were the Rams in their house a tough matchup on paper?  Yes they were.

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The biggest problem I'm having with Evans is that he's turned completely boom or bust.  You don't want to bench him and miss the 30 point games, however his floor is pretty much 0 like we saw last week.  For example, I have Tevin Coleman that I could put in my flex where I know I'll get at least 9-10 points but probably not more than 15.  Do I take the safe play or swing for the fences with Evans?  I probably won't be able to decide until 5 minutes before the early London kickoff.

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This is my first year with Evans and man is it frustrating.  The play calling is really a problem.  Do they realize that he doesn't always have to go deep.  How about some crossing plays, slants.  Get him involved early.  It seems when he is involved early then he will have a good game.  But every game seems to be the same.  The guy has nothing for the 1st quarter.  We just have to hope that the coaches realize how ridiculous it is to have your primary receiver catch NOTHING and try to force him the ball.

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3 minutes ago, kansas98 said:

The biggest problem I'm having with Evans is that he's turned completely boom or bust.  You don't want to bench him and miss the 30 point games, however his floor is pretty much 0 like we saw last week.  For example, I have Tevin Coleman that I could put in my flex where I know I'll get at least 9-10 points but probably not more than 15.  Do I take the safe play or swing for the fences with Evans?  I probably won't be able to decide until 5 minutes before the early London kickoff.

IDK if he's "turned boom or bust."

He's had games where he's been invisible in every season in his career.  This was the second time he's had no catches at all, but every year he does have a 0-4 catch effort with minimal yardage.  Typically, they have happened against the Saints and Panthers recently.  He's also had big games against those teams in the past too.  As an owner, my suggestion would be, like any other reciever that has a bad game, you take the L from his position and move on, and don't let it taint your perception of the player holistically.

Because in every other season of his career, for the remainder of the season with exception for those duds, well he's Mike Evans.

It is possible this season is different because of the emergence of Godwin, but I doubt it.

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

IDK if he's "turned boom or bust."

He's had games where he's been invisible in every season in his career.  This was the second time he's had no catches at all, but every year he does have a 0-4 catch effort with minimal yardage.  Typically, they have happened against the Saints and Panthers recently.  He's also had big games against those teams in the past too.  As an owner, my suggestion would be, like any other reciever that has a bad game, you take the L from his position and move on, and don't let it taint your perception of the player holistically.

Because in every other season of his career, for the remainder of the season with exception for those duds, well he's Mike Evans.

It is possible this season is different because of the emergence of Godwin, but I doubt it.

Yeah, I should have started with my concern is mainly just this week since it's the Panthers.  He'll be a rock in my lineup the rest of the year but his recent performance against Carolina is what's scaring me off a bit.  Man, I wish I was playing the league taco this week but I'm in a matchup for 1st place.

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6 minutes ago, kansas98 said:

Yeah, I should have started with my concern is mainly just this week since it's the Panthers.  He'll be a rock in my lineup the rest of the year but his recent performance against Carolina is what's scaring me off a bit.  Man, I wish I was playing the league taco this week but I'm in a matchup for 1st place.

 

Image result for be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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"In his career, Evans has averaged 22.4 fewer receiving yards per game versus divisional opponents than all other teams, per NFL Research: 4.4 receptions per game, 65.0 rec YPG vs. NFC South opponents; 5.4 receptions per game, 87.4 rec YPG vs. all other opponents.

Sunday's matchup with the Panthers pits Evans up against lanky corner James Bradberry, who has helped keep Evans quiet in recent tilts. In the Week 2 clash, Evans was held to four receptions for 61 yards (41 of which came on one play). Last season, Evans had just one catch for 16 yards in the first meeting with Carolina, and four for 48 in the second.

"He's a good physical corner," Evans said of Bradberry. "He knows all my routes. Everybody in the division knows every route that I'm going to run already I feel like, and I know how they're going to play it. So, we both have the advantage of playing each other so much." 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001064444/article/winston-to-win-games-evans-needs-to-get-the-ball

The article emphasizes its not just a Bradberry thing, its a division opponent thing to slow Evans down.  I haven't seen the numbers, but I'm pretty sure he isn't getting the same target volume he did last year.  That's a big reason for his lack of production.  3 targets last week -- who's going to produce on that?  Evans should bounce back because he's the squeaky wheel, even if they have to throw it to him 15 times.  

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The 1st game against Carolina this year Evans was a couple better placed Winston throws from having about 40 more yards and two TDs. I understand why some people won't start him, but I just can't Bench him. 

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