Boudewijn

Jordan Howard 2019 Outlook

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I owned Howard all year, but only played him in the first couple weeks and in bye weeks, which is a bit disappointing for a player that went generally in the 3rd/4th round.

What happened?

Image result for jordan howard

 

Howard split touches with Cohen, which as far as touches were concerned, were definitely in Howards favor: 270 for Howard vs 170 for Cohen. However, Cohen squeezed  1169/8 out of that, and Howard only 1080/9. Of course that is because Howard's touches were 93% carries, compared to 42% receptions for Cohen (making Cohen the more valuable back to own in PPR formats).

image.png.16e1b1106b1372de1bfe2f96d75c7e94.png

 

However, especially from week 4 to 12, the Bears went back and forth between using Cohen and Howard,  leading to a lot of frustration for us poor owners. I benched him early, played him in a bye (and lost), and then benched him forever. To good to drop, not good enough to play.

Clearly, this is a dangerous backfield to buy into, and I don't think you can defend drafting Howard high in 2019, never mind the coach speak, unless something really drastic happens. The only thing that kept Howard somewhat in the game is that Cohen fumbles a lot (7 fumbles in 2018). If mighty mouse puts a bit more glue on his hands, Howard is just going to be a decent sized battering ram.

(There's probably no need to start this thread so early, but I saw the 2018 discussion still rages on).

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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I owned Howard all year, but only played him in the first couple weeks and in bye weeks, which is a bit disappointing for a player that went generally in the 3rd/4th round.

What happened?

Image result for jordan howard

 

Howard split touches with Cohen, which as far as touches were concerned, were definitely in Howards favor: 270 for Howard vs 170 for Cohen. However, Cohen squeezed  1169/8 out of that, and Howard only 1080/9. Of course that is because Howard's touches were 93% carries, compared to 42% receptions for Cohen (making Cohen the more valuable back to own in PPR formats).

image.png.16e1b1106b1372de1bfe2f96d75c7e94.png

 

However, especially from week 4 to 12, the Bears went back and forth between using Cohen and Howard,  leading to a lot of frustration for us poor owners. I benched him early, played him in a bye (and lost), and then benched him forever. To good to drop, not good enough to play.

Clearly, this is a dangerous backfield to buy into, and I don't think you can defend drafting Howard high in 2019, never mind the coach speak, unless something really drastic happens. The only thing that kept Howard somewhat in the game is that Cohen fumbles a lot (7 fumbles in 2018). If mighty mouse puts a bit more glue on his hands, Howard is just going to be a decent sized battering ram.

(There's probably no need to start this thread so early, but I saw the 2018 discussion still rages on).

 

Dude, I don't know who you are our how you come up with those graphics, but I am really impressed.Outstanding job my friend!

 

I bolded the part of your analysis that struck a nerve with me. Couldn't have said it any better myself! 

 

As someone who drafted Howard as a rookie in a keeper league, traded him away in '17 for David Johnson, and got him back again this past season in the draft, I couldn't have been more frustrated (and disappointed) with how he was (not) used by Nagy this season. I get that you want to give Cohen touches and how explosive he is, but daggum...there were opportunities to feed Howard throughout the season and Nagy just would not do it. 

 

I don't know if I will have Howard on my draft card next season or not. If the situation is the same as it stands today, he will have to fall to a point in the draft where it makes sense. Otherwise, someone else can have the headache. 

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In both of my leagues I bought low on Howard through trades early in the season, but because I had awesome RB depth I never really had to use him except a couple of bye weeks.  Like said above, I could only see drafting him in the later rounds as my RB 3/4 next year.  He could become a stud again sometime next year if traded or an injury to Cohen.  

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"Jordan Howard is a big part of this offense, and I think that for us to continue to keep trying to grow, everybody in this offense has a role," Nagy said Monday,  "This is not going to be an offense where it's just one person and it goes through one person. I don't necessarily believe in that. It's great when you have everybody fulfilling different roles, and it's hard for the defense when you do that."

 

Sometimes it's ok to use a player the way the defense expects because it doesnt mean the defense can actually stop that player knowing he is getting the ball.:lol:

 

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I owned Howard all year, but only played him in the first couple weeks and in bye weeks, which is a bit disappointing for a player that went generally in the 3rd/4th round.

What happened?

Image result for jordan howard

 

Howard split touches with Cohen, which as far as touches were concerned, were definitely in Howards favor: 270 for Howard vs 170 for Cohen. However, Cohen squeezed  1169/8 out of that, and Howard only 1080/9. Of course that is because Howard's touches were 93% carries, compared to 42% receptions for Cohen (making Cohen the more valuable back to own in PPR formats).

image.png.16e1b1106b1372de1bfe2f96d75c7e94.png

 

However, especially from week 4 to 12, the Bears went back and forth between using Cohen and Howard,  leading to a lot of frustration for us poor owners. I benched him early, played him in a bye (and lost), and then benched him forever. To good to drop, not good enough to play.

Clearly, this is a dangerous backfield to buy into, and I don't think you can defend drafting Howard high in 2019, never mind the coach speak, unless something really drastic happens. The only thing that kept Howard somewhat in the game is that Cohen fumbles a lot (7 fumbles in 2018). If mighty mouse puts a bit more glue on his hands, Howard is just going to be a decent sized battering ram.

(There's probably no need to start this thread so early, but I saw the 2018 discussion still rages on).

 

Good post.   I disagree that he was a 3rd/4th round pick though.   I believe he was a late 2nd round pick on average.   Which is why there's been so much bust conversations about him.  

 

Seemed like he was set up for a nice year.   But Nagy's game plans made it hard to own any Bears this season.  

 

Unless he's going to get 18-20 touches a game, he's going to be hard to trust.    And with Nagy's game plan, it seems like it will be impossible to count on any Bears' WR or RB.   Or TE for that matter.

 

I think Howard is probably a 5th round pick for standard because he does at least get goalline work.    But for PPR, he's probably a 7th round pick.  

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After REALLY burning owners in 2018, I think he will actually be a good value option in 2019 drafts.

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No thanks.

 

I've come to the same conclusion with Nagy as Brian Schottenheimer. It's not that Schottenheimer thinks it's never a good idea to have a pass heavy game plan. It's that he genuinely has no idea how to design a pass heavy game plan that is effective. It seems like Nagy really has no clue how to design a run heavy game plan. The run play design is so plain and terrible. Howard is a power back playing for a coach that has no clue how to utilize a power run game.

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Howard could be a really nice bounce-back candidate for 2019.  Especially if he gets traded.  Literally anywhere else.

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14 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Howard could be a really nice bounce-back candidate for 2019.  Especially if he gets traded.  Literally anywhere else.

 

I think that's the only way. Cohen is too good.

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57 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Howard could be a really nice bounce-back candidate for 2019.  Especially if he gets traded.  Literally anywhere else.

 

Would have to be somewhere with an outdoor stadium and cold winters.  

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4 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

Would have to be somewhere with an outdoor stadium and cold winters.  

Snow Beast!!

:D

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SnowBeast aside, I wouldn't mind seeing him in Houston if they get rid of Miller.

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

 

Would have to be somewhere with an outdoor stadium and cold winters.  

Exactly - maybe Buffalo or GB?

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50 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Exactly - maybe Buffalo or GB?

Oooh...Green Bay would be pretty cool.

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Is he worth offering one of those free compensatory picks?

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11 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I dont think the bears will deal howard to GB

Right - I referenced GB only as a SB joke.

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35 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I dont think the bears will deal howard to GB

It would slow down Rodgers.

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What about New Orleans as a low salary Ingram replacement for one year?

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31 minutes ago, BrianM said:

What about New Orleans as a low salary Ingram replacement for one year?

That would be pretty interesting.

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4 hours ago, BrianM said:

What about New Orleans as a low salary Ingram replacement for one year?

 

This seems like a decent idea. Is Howard gonna be 'low salary'?

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58 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

This seems like a decent idea. Is Howard gonna be 'low salary'?

At least for this year.

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Cap hit is a tick above two mil this year, per spotrac.  Higher than i guess i would've thought for a late round rookie contract.   I'll have to see why that is- maybe he hit escalators or something?

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