Boudewijn

Tarik Cohen 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

If Howard gets a 2019 thread, so should Cohen. 

giphy.webp


In 2018, Cohen had 444/5 rushing yards, 71/725/3 in the receiving game, 433 yards in the return game (no TDs unfortunately), and then there was this gem:
Image result for tarik cohen touchdown giants 2018
Yup, in a game where he already had 30 yd rushing, 12/156 receiving, and 22 return yards, he added a 1 yd passing TD (in 2017 he threw a 21 yarder).

If you have a return yard league, this kid delivers. Buyer beware: he also fumbles a lot, and can be benched at any moment (especially by a creative coach like Nagy, who doesn't like to be predictable - like in the play-offs). But having this kid in your flex could be very interesting.

I predict a fairly high price though, especially in PPR/return yard formats, where he could go to the 3rd round. It'll be interesting to see what the off-season and pre-season brings for the Bears, for both Howard and Cohen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's an early RB2 target for me in my 14 team auction.    He does strike me though as a player who will have an owner or two who want him at any price though, so I have to commit to a ceiling on him.    Where he falls in nomination order (its randomized) will be crucial.

 

I just strongly feel that Chicago's offense does better when he's more involved.   Howard should only be heavily used as a closer, or in cases where there's a mismatch when they run between the tackles.     

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's a great flex but I don't reach for him in a Nagy offense.   

The use of mizzell 2nd half of season was puzzling to me and created more uncertainty

I don't see how Cohen does better than he has this year if the unpredictable use continues. I cant risjk significant draft capital on a chicago rb until there is some certanty with their usage.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me, his value was this season only, because he was going in the mid-rounds and got the passing game volume to make him a borderline RB1.  Investing a top 3 pick on him could be a trap akin to Duke Johnson.  I'm passing this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's going to be a top 50ish pick in PPR formats, and in bigger 12 or 14 team leagues, that's a late 4th or early 5th pick.

That's just too high for a guy in an offense where they spread it around a lot and in a Nagy offense that has shown he doesn't rely on a workhorse.

His floor could be 4 or 5 touches as we have seen.  That's week killing if you're relying on him as an RB2 which you would be given his price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cohen is the only bear I'd want. 4/5 is a good price for a RB2

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

For me, his value was this season only, because he was going in the mid-rounds and got the passing game volume to make him a borderline RB1.  Investing a top 3 pick on him could be a trap akin to Duke Johnson.  I'm passing this year.

Duke Johnson analogy is unfair. The Bears have stability at coach, QB, O-line, etc. The Browns had none of that. No reason to think Cohen's role will drastically change. Even if the Bears dump Howard and bring someone in, it's highly unlikely he would eat into Cohen's role. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Duke Johnson analogy is unfair. The Bears have stability at coach, QB, O-line, etc. The Browns had none of that. No reason to think Cohen's role will drastically change. Even if the Bears dump Howard and bring someone in, it's highly unlikely he would eat into Cohen's role. 

 

Cohen had 3 catches or less in 8 of his 16 games.  And he's essentially unhelpful in the running game.  That's not a guy you take with your top picks in my opinion.  He'll have some big games, sure, but your first picks should have a high floor with consistency, you don't want zig zagging production out of those guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any chance he takes his game even further in the third year?  Or are we seeing his ceiling since he appears very limited as a runner albeit he gets occasional goal line carries.  He is a very exciting player at the RB position problem is I don't know if a boring player like Lamar Miller who gets more consistent weekly touches is a better fantasy runningback. 

 

Obviously Cohen is 'scarier' in your line up to your opponent than a Lamar Miller- type RB but the end result is similar. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Duke Johnson analogy is unfair. The Bears have stability at coach, QB, O-line, etc. The Browns had none of that. No reason to think Cohen's role will drastically change. Even if the Bears dump Howard and bring someone in, it's highly unlikely he would eat into Cohen's role. 

 

What is Cohen's role exactly? 

I don't even think Nagy knows :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

alt choices that could go around or after him in '19 drafts (rd 3 or later):

 

Conner

MIxon

Carson

AJones

Henry

Cook

Michel

Guice

Mack

Ingram

Coleman

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psygolf said:

alt choices that could go around or after him in '19 drafts (rd 3 or later):

 

Conner

MIxon

Carson

AJones

Henry

Cook

Michel

Guice

Mack

Ingram

Coleman

 

 

I think I'd rather have all those players over Cohen except Ingram tbh.  Yikes Cohen is going to be a bigger gamble than I am hoping, I really wanna own him one of these seasons because of his insane ceiling upside. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/8/2019 at 11:16 AM, BrianM said:

He's an early RB2 target for me in my 14 team auction.    He does strike me though as a player who will have an owner or two who want him at any price though, so I have to commit to a ceiling on him.    Where he falls in nomination order (its randomized) will be crucial.

 

I just strongly feel that Chicago's offense does better when he's more involved.   Howard should only be heavily used as a closer, or in cases where there's a mismatch when they run between the tackles.     

 

Bolded the part above, as I think you're 100% right. I'm a Cohen fan and was baffled by his usage under John Fox in 2017. His usage was certainly better in 2018, but still leaves a lot to be desired. You would think the Bears would game-plan to use him more, because the numbers show the more he's involved, the better the offense does.

 

In 2018, Cohen had 6 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards.

In those 6 games, the Bears scored an average of 28.83 PPG.

In the other 10 games, the Bears scored an average of 24.80 PPG.

 

In 2017, Cohen had 3 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards.

In those 3 games, the Bears scored an average of 24.33 PPG.

In the other 13 games, the Bears scored an average of 14.69 PPG.

 

Why'd I pick 80 yards? Just because it seems to me that when a RB gets 80+ yards in a game, you can't complain about his fantasy day :) 

 

Get The Human Joystick the ball! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Bolded the part above, as I think you're 100% right. I'm a Cohen fan and was baffled by his usage under John Fox in 2017. His usage was certainly better in 2018, but still leaves a lot to be desired. You would think the Bears would game-plan to use him more, because the numbers show the more he's involved, the better the offense does.

 

In 2018, Cohen had 6 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards.

In those 6 games, the Bears scored an average of 28.83 PPG.

In the other 10 games, the Bears scored an average of 24.80 PPG.

 

In 2017, Cohen had 3 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards.

In those 3 games, the Bears scored an average of 24.33 PPG.

In the other 13 games, the Bears scored an average of 14.69 PPG.

 

Why'd I pick 80 yards? Just because it seems to me that when a RB gets 80+ yards in a game, you can't complain about his fantasy day :) 

 

Get The Human Joystick the ball! 

 

Great work as always.  I really found it maddening how little he was used on Sunday.   The Bears struggled for points, and Howard wasn't doing much.   A-Rob broke through late, but its easy to think that an extra gainer or two from Cohen turns a lost drive into 3 or 7, or a FG drive into 7.......and Chicago's off to LA.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Great work as always.  I really found it maddening how little he was used on Sunday.   The Bears struggled for points, and Howard wasn't doing much.   A-Rob broke through late, but its easy to think that an extra gainer or two from Cohen turns a lost drive into 3 or 7, or a FG drive into 7.......and Chicago's off to LA.  

Even Howard only ran 10 times...

 

Why have trubisky throw 43 fn times

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Great work as always.  I really found it maddening how little he was used on Sunday.   The Bears struggled for points, and Howard wasn't doing much.   A-Rob broke through late, but its easy to think that an extra gainer or two from Cohen turns a lost drive into 3 or 7, or a FG drive into 7.......and Chicago's off to LA.  

 

23 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Even Howard only ran 10 times...

 

Why have trubisky throw 43 fn times

 

Thanks @BrianM and agreed with both of you, as going so one-dimensional was killer.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really think they are going to try and get the ball in his hands a lot more next year. He's the only true playmaker in that offense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

Bolded the part above, as I think you're 100% right. I'm a Cohen fan and was baffled by his usage under John Fox in 2017. His usage was certainly better in 2018, but still leaves a lot to be desired. You would think the Bears would game-plan to use him more, because the numbers show the more he's involved, the better the offense does.

 

In 2018, Cohen had 6 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards.

In those 6 games, the Bears scored an average of 28.83 PPG.

In the other 10 games, the Bears scored an average of 24.80 PPG.

 

In 2017, Cohen had 3 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards.

In those 3 games, the Bears scored an average of 24.33 PPG.

In the other 13 games, the Bears scored an average of 14.69 PPG.

 

Why'd I pick 80 yards? Just because it seems to me that when a RB gets 80+ yards in a game, you can't complain about his fantasy day :) 

 

Get The Human Joystick the ball! 

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure if you picked the best games of another player on the bears offense that you'd see the same point spread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure if you picked the best games of another player on the bears offense that you'd see the same point spread.

 

Actually, no. Here's Jordan Howard...
 

In 2018, Howard had 6 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards (the same amount of 80+ games Cohen had)

In those 6 games, the Bears scored an average of 21.50 PPG.

In the other 10 games, the Bears scored an average of 29.20 PPG.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, RepoMan said:

I really think they are going to try and get the ball in his hands a lot more next year. He's the only true playmaker in that offense.

 

and yet Nagy gave him 1 carry + 5 tgts in a win or go home playoff game?  Seemed like an opportune time to get the ball in your tru playmakers hands correct? :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, psygolf said:

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure if you picked the best games of another player on the bears offense that you'd see the same point spread.

Nah man. I'm a Bears fan. Tarik is more important. You can ask any Bears fan, he's the offensive MVP of this team. When he's involved, the offense is on another level. Seriously, call into any Chicago sports radio station, or ask anyone who follows the team closely , "who was the catalyst of the 2018 Bears offense?" 100% of the answers will be: Tarik Cohen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

Great work as always.  I really found it maddening how little he was used on Sunday.   The Bears struggled for points, and Howard wasn't doing much.   A-Rob broke through late, but its easy to think that an extra gainer or two from Cohen turns a lost drive into 3 or 7, or a FG drive into 7.......and Chicago's off to LA.  

Benny Cunningham and Taquan Mizzell had 2 carries in that game. Cohen had one. I don't know if Nagy bumped his head or what, but that  was inexcusable. 

 

I think there's an outside chance the Bears draft/sign a RB to replace those bums, and KEEP Howard, leading to a 3 headed nightmare committee. I think there's also a chance that they trade Howard in that scenario. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

Actually, no. Here's Jordan Howard...
 

In 2018, Howard had 6 games with at least 80 combined rushing/receiving yards (the same amount of 80+ games Cohen had)

In those 6 games, the Bears scored an average of 21.50 PPG.

In the other 10 games, the Bears scored an average of 29.20 PPG.

So Howard is the outlier-?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Nah man. I'm a Bears fan. Tarik is more important. You can ask any Bears fan, he's the offensive MVP of this team. When he's involved, the offense is on another level. Seriously, call into any Chicago sports radio station, or ask anyone who follows the team closely , "who was the catalyst of the 2018 Bears offense?" 100% of the answers will be: Tarik Cohen. 

Dennis Gentry 2.0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Dennis Gentry 2.0

4th round picks who wore/wear 29 for the Bears. That's where the similarities end. 

Edited by ajs723

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.