Lamont Sanford

Jameis Winston 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Bruce Arians is rumored to be interested in the Tampa job, and his history of coaching Jameis Winston is obviously a factor he finds very appealing. With receiving threats like Mike Evans, OJ Howard, Chris Godwin, and Adam Humphries, Jameis Winston would seem to have a clear path to an elite fantasy season under Arians’ tutelage. 

 

Many of us in keeper/dynasty leagues happen to have Winston on our rosters, and were really unsure, if not discouraged, about his future. To make a long story short, I feel like an Arians hire should send Winston owners from six to midnight.

 

Cue the “It’s Happening!!!” gif?.....

 

 

 

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Bruce Arians is rumored to be interested in the Tampa job, and his history of coaching Jameis Winston is obviously a factor he finds very appealing. With receiving threats like Mike Evans, OJ Howard, Chris Godwin, and Adam Humphries, Jameis Winston would seem to have a clear path to an elite fantasy season under Arians’ tutelage. 

 

Many of us in keeper/dynasty leagues happen to have Winston on our rosters, and were really unsure, if not discouraged, about his future. To make a long story short, I feel like an Arians hire should send Winston owners from six to midnight.

 

Cue the “It’s Happening!!!” gif?.....

 

 

 

 

 

With the way he played near the end of the season and management confirming they're bringing him back , I think there was already some optimism for Winston's future.  When he played a full game, he was very good for fantasy.    I forget the exact stat but if you took the combined stats of Fitz and Winston (as if they were just one QB),  it would have resulted in a top 3 (or something like that) fantasy QB.  

 

Arians should increase his value.   The big question to me is if Wisnton can become a good vertical passer.    In a nutshell, I think he's going to have a great fantasy year in 2019 but if it doesn't translate into Tampa Bay wins, then 2020 forward could be in doubt.

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It's a pretty big deal for Winston if BA comes to town...I am def excited, he's still only what 24 or 25...there is untapped potential yet

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He is a prime late round QB target. I will try to target some part of the TB offense cheap.  Players such as  Winston-barber-jones-godwin-howard

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I have to say, I was surprised to learn the following:

 

Only ONE QB has ever thrown more TD’s than Winston by their 25th birthday. 

 

Only ONE QB has ever thrown for more passing yards by their 25th birthday. 

 

He’s thrown quite a few picks too, but he’s even in good company there.

 

Taken from an article posted 3 days ago, link below...

 

“On the occasion of Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston's 25th birthday, here's a statistical sample of NFL quarterbacks' production before they turned 25, and how Winston ranks among them”

 

starts

1. Drew Bledsoe 59

2. Josh Freeman 56

3. Jameis Winston 54

4. Fran Tarkenton  51

5. Peyton Manning  48

6. Cam Newton 48

7. Blake Bortles  45

8. Matthew Stafford  45

9. Marcus Mariota 42

10. Norm Snead  42

 

Touchdown passes

1. Dan Marino 98

2. Jameis Winston 88

3. Peyton Manning 85

4. Drew Bledsoe 80

5. Matthew Stafford 80

6. Josh Freeman 78

7. Fran Tarkenton 77

8. George Ratterman 74

9. Blake Bortles 69

10. Jared Goff 65

 

interceptions

1. George Ratterman 79

2. Drew Bledsoe 73

3. Norm Snead 71

4. Joe Namath 70

5. Fran Tarkenton 68

6. Josh Freeman 63

7. Steve Grogan 59

8. Jameis Winston 58

9. Peyton Manning 58

10. Terry Bradshaw 58

 

attempts

1. Drew Bledsoe 2,379

2. Jameis Winston 1,922

3. Josh Freeman 1,873

4. Matthew Stafford 1,863

5. Blake Bortles 1,706

6. Peyton Manning 1,679

7. Cam Newton 1,475

8. Dan Marino 1,427

9. Joe Namath 1,302

10. Marcus Mariota 1,274

 

Yards passing

1. Drew Bledsoe 14,642

2. Jameis Winston 14,628

3. Josh Freeman 12,963

4. Matthew Stafford 12,807

5. Peyton Manning 12,287

6. Dan Marino 11,431

7. Cam Newton 11,299

8. Blake Bortles 11,241

9. Joe Namath 9,606

10. Jared Goff 9,481

 

wins

1. Dan Marino 33

2. Drew Bledsoe 32

3. Ben Roethlisberger 29

4. Peyton Manning 26

5. Cam Newton 25

6. Josh Freeman 24

7. Jared Goff 24

8. Bernie Kosar 24

9. David Woodley 24

10. Michael Vick 23

(Jameis Winston ranks 14th with 21 wins)

 

Losses

1. Blake Bortles 34

2. Jameis Winston 33

3. Josh Freeman 32

4. Fran Tarkenton 32

5. Norm Snead 30

6. Matthew Stafford 28

7. Drew Bledsoe 27

8. Tim Couch 26

9. Dan Pastorini 25

10. Randy Johnson, Archie Manning 24

 

Pick-sixes

1. Blake Bortles 11

2. Matthew Stafford 10

3. Joe Namath, Geno Smith 8

4. Josh Freeman, Jake Plummer 6

5. Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger,

Tim Couch, Bob Griese, Brett Favre, Neil Lomax 5

(Drew Bledsoe, Jameis Winston and 10 others with 4)

 

https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/2019/01/05/as-jameis-winston-turns-25-heres-how-he-compares-to-other-nfl-quarterbacks-at-that-age/?template=amp

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Nathan Peterman didn't make the pick-six list?

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22 minutes ago, devaster said:

Nathan Peterman didn't make the pick-six list?

Only 2 surprisingly (12 int in 8 games):

- 2017 against the Chargers

- 2018 against the Texans

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6 hours ago, dashoe said:

He is a prime late round QB target. I will try to target some part of the TB offense cheap.  Players such as  Winston-barber-jones-godwin-howard

Agreed.  Depending on league size and settings I'd love to pair Winston with another late round QB with the hope that one of them pans out.

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Ben Roethlisberger
Patrick Mahomes
Matt Ryan
Jared Goff
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Carson Wentz
Kirk Cousins
Philip Rivers
Tom Brady
Eli Manning
Drew Brees
All QBs I wouldn't hesitate to pick before Winston, and you should probably add Garoppolo and Watson and Mayfield.

My problem with Winston is that he remains an amazing knucklehead. Can Arians fix that?
Bruce Arians, left, and Jameis Winston, shown here when the Bucs played Oct. 15, 2017 at Arizona. Winston and the Bucs lost to Arians' Arizona Cardinals teams in  2016 and 2017. [Times files (2017)]

(The above image is from https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/2019/01/08/bucs-bruce-arians-jameis-winston-a-match-made-in-birmingham/, which is actually semi-interesting, and gives the impression that if anyone can fix Winston, it might be Arians).

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Posted (edited)

His off the field antics have signaled knucklehead but from what I saw in Hard Knocks he is mostly just a very psyched up competitor and a natural leader who wants to win, not necessarily beat his own chest because he thinks he's great, but rather to please his teammates. 

 

Edited by Proteus

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Ben Roethlisberger
Patrick Mahomes
Matt Ryan
Jared Goff
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Carson Wentz
Kirk Cousins
Philip Rivers
Tom Brady
Eli Manning
Drew Brees
All QBs I wouldn't hesitate to pick before Winston, and you should probably add Garoppolo and Watson and Mayfield.

How jacked up are your QB rankings that you have Eli Manning ahead of Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

How jacked up are your QB rankings that you have Eli Manning ahead of Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson?

They are in somewhat random order. You are right btw that Eli may not belong there, but I'll keep him in there as the ultimate insult to Winston.

Edited by Boudewijn
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(As K197040 first pointed out above) - In most fantasy scoring formats, if you combine the 2018 fantasy points of Jameis and Fitz, you have the #2 fantasy scoring QB (way behind Mahomes like every other QB) but still, just sayin'...

 

Jameis is going to be really undervalued for 2019 IMO.

 

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4 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

(As K197040 first pointed out above) - In most fantasy scoring formats, if you combine the 2018 fantasy points of Jameis and Fitz, you have the #2 fantasy scoring QB (way behind Mahomes like every other QB) but still, just sayin'...

 

Jameis is going to be really undervalued for 2019 IMO.

 

 

And I think what helps is that he didn't play a full season in 2018 so his total points don't put him near the top.   He went undrafted in one of my leagues and even after he was named the starter, I was able to get him up for $1.    I'm hoping that same disinterest carries over to this year.

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On 1/9/2019 at 12:42 PM, J.T. Marlin said:

(As K197040 first pointed out above) - In most fantasy scoring formats, if you combine the 2018 fantasy points of Jameis and Fitz, you have the #2 fantasy scoring QB (way behind Mahomes like every other QB) but still, just sayin'...

 

Jameis is going to be really undervalued for 2019 IMO.

 

That's great...if you have the "team QB" roster setting.

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On 1/8/2019 at 6:44 PM, Lamont Sanford said:

I have to say, I was surprised to learn the following:

 

Only ONE QB has ever thrown more TD’s than Winston by their 25th birthday. 

 

Only ONE QB has ever thrown for more passing yards by their 25th birthday. 

 

He’s thrown quite a few picks too, but he’s even in good company there.

 

Taken from an article posted 3 days ago, link below...

 

“On the occasion of Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston's 25th birthday, here's a statistical sample of NFL quarterbacks' production before they turned 25, and how Winston ranks among them”

 

starts

1. Drew Bledsoe 59

2. Josh Freeman 56

3. Jameis Winston 54

4. Fran Tarkenton  51

5. Peyton Manning  48

6. Cam Newton 48

7. Blake Bortles  45

8. Matthew Stafford  45

9. Marcus Mariota 42

10. Norm Snead  42

 

Touchdown passes

1. Dan Marino 98

2. Jameis Winston 88

3. Peyton Manning 85

4. Drew Bledsoe 80

5. Matthew Stafford 80

6. Josh Freeman 78

7. Fran Tarkenton 77

8. George Ratterman 74

9. Blake Bortles 69

10. Jared Goff 65

 

interceptions

1. George Ratterman 79

2. Drew Bledsoe 73

3. Norm Snead 71

4. Joe Namath 70

5. Fran Tarkenton 68

6. Josh Freeman 63

7. Steve Grogan 59

8. Jameis Winston 58

9. Peyton Manning 58

10. Terry Bradshaw 58

 

attempts

1. Drew Bledsoe 2,379

2. Jameis Winston 1,922

3. Josh Freeman 1,873

4. Matthew Stafford 1,863

5. Blake Bortles 1,706

6. Peyton Manning 1,679

7. Cam Newton 1,475

8. Dan Marino 1,427

9. Joe Namath 1,302

10. Marcus Mariota 1,274

 

Yards passing

1. Drew Bledsoe 14,642

2. Jameis Winston 14,628

3. Josh Freeman 12,963

4. Matthew Stafford 12,807

5. Peyton Manning 12,287

6. Dan Marino 11,431

7. Cam Newton 11,299

8. Blake Bortles 11,241

9. Joe Namath 9,606

10. Jared Goff 9,481

 

wins

1. Dan Marino 33

2. Drew Bledsoe 32

3. Ben Roethlisberger 29

4. Peyton Manning 26

5. Cam Newton 25

6. Josh Freeman 24

7. Jared Goff 24

8. Bernie Kosar 24

9. David Woodley 24

10. Michael Vick 23

(Jameis Winston ranks 14th with 21 wins)

 

Losses

1. Blake Bortles 34

2. Jameis Winston 33

3. Josh Freeman 32

4. Fran Tarkenton 32

5. Norm Snead 30

6. Matthew Stafford 28

7. Drew Bledsoe 27

8. Tim Couch 26

9. Dan Pastorini 25

10. Randy Johnson, Archie Manning 24

 

Pick-sixes

1. Blake Bortles 11

2. Matthew Stafford 10

3. Joe Namath, Geno Smith 8

4. Josh Freeman, Jake Plummer 6

5. Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger,

Tim Couch, Bob Griese, Brett Favre, Neil Lomax 5

(Drew Bledsoe, Jameis Winston and 10 others with 4)

 

https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/2019/01/05/as-jameis-winston-turns-25-heres-how-he-compares-to-other-nfl-quarterbacks-at-that-age/?template=amp

Winston had the luxury of starting every game his rookie year and more recently NFL has become a more pass oriented.

 

Aside from those he is in some good company. 

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On 1/8/2019 at 7:44 PM, Lamont Sanford said:

I have to say, I was surprised to learn the following:

 

Only ONE QB has ever thrown more TD’s than Winston by their 25th birthday. 

 

Only ONE QB has ever thrown for more passing yards by their 25th birthday. 

 

He’s thrown quite a few picks too, but he’s even in good company there.

 

Taken from an article posted 3 days ago, link below...

 

“On the occasion of Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston's 25th birthday, here's a statistical sample of NFL quarterbacks' production before they turned 25, and how Winston ranks among them”

 

starts

1. Drew Bledsoe 59

2. Josh Freeman 56

3. Jameis Winston 54

4. Fran Tarkenton  51

5. Peyton Manning  48

6. Cam Newton 48

7. Blake Bortles  45

8. Matthew Stafford  45

9. Marcus Mariota 42

10. Norm Snead  42

 

Touchdown passes

1. Dan Marino 98

2. Jameis Winston 88

3. Peyton Manning 85

4. Drew Bledsoe 80

5. Matthew Stafford 80

6. Josh Freeman 78

7. Fran Tarkenton 77

8. George Ratterman 74

9. Blake Bortles 69

10. Jared Goff 65

 

interceptions

1. George Ratterman 79

2. Drew Bledsoe 73

3. Norm Snead 71

4. Joe Namath 70

5. Fran Tarkenton 68

6. Josh Freeman 63

7. Steve Grogan 59

8. Jameis Winston 58

9. Peyton Manning 58

10. Terry Bradshaw 58

 

attempts

1. Drew Bledsoe 2,379

2. Jameis Winston 1,922

3. Josh Freeman 1,873

4. Matthew Stafford 1,863

5. Blake Bortles 1,706

6. Peyton Manning 1,679

7. Cam Newton 1,475

8. Dan Marino 1,427

9. Joe Namath 1,302

10. Marcus Mariota 1,274

 

Yards passing

1. Drew Bledsoe 14,642

2. Jameis Winston 14,628

3. Josh Freeman 12,963

4. Matthew Stafford 12,807

5. Peyton Manning 12,287

6. Dan Marino 11,431

7. Cam Newton 11,299

8. Blake Bortles 11,241

9. Joe Namath 9,606

10. Jared Goff 9,481

 

wins

1. Dan Marino 33

2. Drew Bledsoe 32

3. Ben Roethlisberger 29

4. Peyton Manning 26

5. Cam Newton 25

6. Josh Freeman 24

7. Jared Goff 24

8. Bernie Kosar 24

9. David Woodley 24

10. Michael Vick 23

(Jameis Winston ranks 14th with 21 wins)

 

Losses

1. Blake Bortles 34

2. Jameis Winston 33

3. Josh Freeman 32

4. Fran Tarkenton 32

5. Norm Snead 30

6. Matthew Stafford 28

7. Drew Bledsoe 27

8. Tim Couch 26

9. Dan Pastorini 25

10. Randy Johnson, Archie Manning 24

 

Pick-sixes

1. Blake Bortles 11

2. Matthew Stafford 10

3. Joe Namath, Geno Smith 8

4. Josh Freeman, Jake Plummer 6

5. Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger,

Tim Couch, Bob Griese, Brett Favre, Neil Lomax 5

(Drew Bledsoe, Jameis Winston and 10 others with 4)

 

https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/2019/01/05/as-jameis-winston-turns-25-heres-how-he-compares-to-other-nfl-quarterbacks-at-that-age/?template=amp

 

So before age 25, Winston threw more TDs and had a better TD/INT ratio than Peyton Manning. Good thing Jim Caldwell helped Peyton learn how to throw fewer INTs the season after he led the league in pick-sixes.

 

Good coaching matters....Arians will greatly help Winston improve entering his prime. 

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Pair him with a solid high floor QB next year and you should be in good shape.

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10 hours ago, LuckBox1 said:

Top 10 QB for 2019.

Unless you're projecting top 5 ppg, you could be losing points to at least half your league every week.

Edited by psygolf

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2 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Pair him with a solid high floor QB next year and you should be in good shape.

That QB would have to be drafted ahead of Winston, yes/no?

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Why is it necessary to pair Winston with another QB? If you believe in him, confidently draft/acquire him las your QB1. That’s where the potential advantage lies. 

 

If you don’t believe in him, don’t draft him at all. When you start wasting picks pairing multiple QBs you start to lose whatever advantage you may have gotten by hitting on Winston.

 

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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7 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Why is it necessary to pair Winston with another QB? If you believe in him, confidently draft/acquire him las your QB1. That’s where the potential advantage lies. 

 

If you don’t believe in him, don’t draft him at all. When you start wasting picks pairing multiple QBs you start to lose whatever advantage you may have gotten by hitting on Winston.

 

 

No, I disagree. It's entirely reasonable to draft 2 decent QBs you think have (say) a 30% chance to end up in the top-6.

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2 hours ago, psygolf said:

That QB would have to be drafted ahead of Winston, yes/no?

 

Depends on how safe you want to go I’d imagine. I’d be looking to pair him with someone like Ben, Rivers, Ryan, Cousins, ect,...

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

No, I disagree. It's entirely reasonable to draft 2 decent QBs you think have (say) a 30% chance to end up in the top-6.

Image result for 100% percent of the time anchorman gif

 

That's a 7 win floor for ff Winston owners :)

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