Boudewijn

JuJu Smith-Schuster 2019 Outlook

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In 2017 during the early games of the season, JuJu was just another guy in the Steelers offense (albeit a 2nd round pick). Ben would throw him a couple balls, he did pretty well for a rookie (including 3 TD), but then Martavius Bryant became too much of a distraction, and JuJu had to step up. And step up he did.

 

(Unfortunately that week I was up against my Steeler homie friend in my friends league).

 

In 2018 he had 8 games over 100 yard (more than Nuk, Thomas, Hill; Julio had 10 and Thielen had 9). He also did better in yards than Antonio Brown, but not in TDs, even though JuJu had more Red Zone targets.

 

JuJu is also the youngest ever WR to have a 1400+ yard season. Before him, 6 players did it at age 22 (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rec_yds_single_season.htm):

Isaac Bruce

1995

STL

1,781

22

Josh Gordon

2013

CLE

1,646

22

Odell Beckham

2015

NYG

1,450

22

JuJu Smith-Schuster

2018

PIT

1,426

21

Randy Moss+

1999

MIN

1,413

22

Larry Fitzgerald

2005

ARI

1,409

22

Allen Robinson

2015

JAX

1,400

22

 

It also has to be said unfortunately that for Bruce/Gordon/Beckham/Robinson that was the highlight of their career (so far). So, while we are probably all hoping for the famous 3rd year break-out, that actually may not happen.


Also important to note is what is going to happen in Pittsburgh with AB. Whatever happens, it could affect JuJu negatively:
- Brown could stay, be a distraction and demand to have the most targets

- Brown could leave, meaning now JuJu is the lead receiver and draw the best or double coverage

etc.

Image result for juju smith

In any case, this is a very exciting receiver, always worth watching (if only for the insane TD celebrations), and in my mind, could be a first rounder or early second rounder.
 

 

 

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He was an absolute steal the last 2 years at his ADP.  I think this is the year he regresses, as I think Brown's departure will be detrimental to him.  Still a great receiver that will give you good numbers, but he's going to cost a 2nd/3rd, which is going to be too steep a cost.

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A lot of people are gonna get in early on the the regression claims...

I really don't know, but what if he keeps getting better at his craft? Does not equate to bigger numbers, per se, but I just don't think he's a finished product yet at his age...most of the very early dynasty ADP data is showing him in that WR6-8 overall range...which seems like a pretty decent deal yet?

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9 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

A lot of people are gonna get in early on the the regression claims...

I really don't know, but what if he keeps getting better at his craft? Does not equate to bigger numbers, per se, but I just don't think he's a finished product yet at his age...most of the very early dynasty ADP data is showing him in that WR6-8 overall range...which seems like a pretty decent deal yet?

 

Problem is its very very very hard to actually improve on his 2018 #s.  He had over 110 catches and 1400 yards.  Those are totals many hall of fame WRs would love to have year in year out but didn't so it's hard to pencil those same totals to repeat let alone improve.

 

He can certainly turn into a 10-15 TD a year guy however and if that becomes the part he improves while staying around 90 catches 1200-1400 yards like AJ Green did his first several years in the league, easy stud top 10 WR for years to come.  

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7 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

A lot of people are gonna get in early on the the regression claims...

I really don't know, but what if he keeps getting better at his craft? Does not equate to bigger numbers, per se, but I just don't think he's a finished product yet at his age...most of the very early dynasty ADP data is showing him in that WR6-8 overall range...which seems like a pretty decent deal yet?

 

It's not only the regression worry. It's also the possible loss of AB. I have no data on this but I assume that AB takes a lot of coverage that benefits JuJu (correct me if I'm wrong).  Maybe he will benefit a lot from AB leaving, we don't now.

 

So I guess the hype will be high on this player which will show in his ADP. And maybe the price will be too high for the worries I have with him. 

 

Off Season will show what happens and then we can have a proper discussion I guess.

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JuJu will certainly be interesting with or without AB on the other side. Personally, I tend to think AB is done in Pittsburgh, and I do think JuJu will get his first taste of being "the guy", which will draw No1 CBs and double coverages. But Eli Rogers came back late from injury this season, and the Steelers spent a 2nd on James Washington for a reason. It wouldn't surprise me to see them draft another guy or pick up a No3 type guy via FA. 

 

As long as Ben is the QB, I still expect great things from JuJu. If AB is gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see JuJu become Ben's new AB and Washington become Ben's new JuJu. 

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10 hours ago, kdko said:

He was an absolute steal the last 2 years at his ADP.  I think this is the year he regresses, as I think Brown's departure will be detrimental to him.  Still a great receiver that will give you good numbers, but he's going to cost a 2nd/3rd, which is going to be too steep a cost.

You think Brown leaving will be detrimental to him? Even before Brown Wallace got over 1,000 yards and double digit TDs and JuJu is far superior than Wallace. Ben is a guarantee to support a 1,000 yard WR and that WR has a good chance at getting double digit TDs. This isn't even factoring in JuJu being an extremely great player and he plays at a position where players tend to get better over time.

 

I have no idea what world you live in thinking he will be worse. He is a borderline first round pick without Brown. I don't see why he can't put up numbers somewhat similar to what Brown put up as the WR1. The yards may regress but Brown had 15 TDs this season. JuJu putting up 1,300/13 next year isn't all that unlikely. 

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13 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

In 2017 during the early games of the season, JuJu was just another guy in the Steelers offense (albeit a 2nd round pick). Ben would throw him a couple balls, he did pretty well for a rookie (including 3 TD), but then Martavius Bryant became too much of a distraction, and JuJu had to step up. And step up he did

 

 

 

JuJu is also the youngest ever WR to have a 1400+ yard season. Before him, 6 players did it at age 22 (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rec_yds_single_season.htm):

Isaac Bruce

1995

STL

1,781

22

Josh Gordon

2013

CLE

1,646

22

Odell Beckham

2015

NYG

1,450

22

JuJu Smith-Schuster

2018

PIT

1,426

21

Randy Moss+

1999

MIN

1,413

22

Larry Fitzgerald

2005

ARI

1,409

22

Allen Robinson

2015

JAX

1,400

22

 

 

 

Pretty amazing stat considering he was his team's #2 WR.   I suppose that also has a lot to do with the recent surge in NFL passing.   

 

Next year, I think he would put up better FF numbers with Brown on the field.

Although if Brown does leave, and assuming Washington is as good as he sounds,  he (JuJu)  becomes a WR1 2020 forward.  

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Trust Pitt WR draft picks they seem to always have another stud in the waiting after their starters move on.  

 

If AB indeed moves on, Washington is probably the super sneaky value pick to have next year if Juju's price is too much for you at the draft day.  

 

Unless your name is Markcus Wheaton, the second WR for Pitt is a sure fantasy bet. 

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5 hours ago, thebadferret said:

 

It's not only the regression worry. It's also the possible loss of AB. I have no data on this but I assume that AB takes a lot of coverage that benefits JuJu (correct me if I'm wrong).  Maybe he will benefit a lot from AB leaving, we don't now.

 

So I guess the hype will be high on this player which will show in his ADP. And maybe the price will be too high for the worries I have with him. 

 

Off Season will show what happens and then we can have a proper discussion I guess.

Not just AB, rumblings of Roethlisberger retiring are coming up again.  If AB leaves, that might be the final straw.  I don't see a QB on that roster that can make him a WR1 and definitely don't see much in the draft.

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41 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Not just AB, rumblings of Roethlisberger retiring are coming up again.  If AB leaves, that might be the final straw.  I don't see a QB on that roster that can make him a WR1 and definitely don't see much in the draft.

 

That's a different bridge to cross when and if we get there. Personally, I don't think Ben is going anywhere. I'm not really sure why AB leaving would be the final straw for Ben...he was the guy that AB threw a ball at during that practice tantrum. I'm thinking Big Ben would welcome the Steelers trading the guy who tried to hit him in the face with a football. 

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13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That's a different bridge to cross when and if we get there. Personally, I don't think Ben is going anywhere. I'm not really sure why AB leaving would be the final straw for Ben...he was the guy that AB threw a ball at during that practice tantrum. I'm thinking Big Ben would welcome the Steelers trading the guy who tried to hit him in the face with a football. 

It's more of the lack of weapons outside of JuJu at that point.  He's already being beat up every year.  He almost walked last offseason.  Losing both Bell after the long holdout and then AB might just make him walk away.  It's not like they have made his health a priority.  Not a lot of improvement on that line.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

It's more of the lack of weapons outside of JuJu at that point.  He's already being beat up every year.  He almost walked last offseason.  Losing both Bell after the long holdout and then AB might just make him walk away.  It's not like they have made his health a priority.  Not a lot of improvement on that line.

 

I haven't lived in Pittsburgh since fall 2015, but Ben's "retirement" talk is pretty much an annual thing and has been for a while. He has "almost walked" more than just last offseason. I don't think he'll hang it up...not when he's just had his best statistical season ever and not when he sees the likes of Brady, Brees, Rivers (all older than him) playing well so late in their careers...and Rodgers just a year younger playing as well as he is. 

 

It's just my opinion :), but I don't think he's done. I actually expect him to play another 2-3 years, but I could be very wrong on this one.  

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17 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I haven't lived in Pittsburgh since fall 2015, but Ben's "retirement" talk is pretty much an annual thing and has been for a while. He has "almost walked" more than just last offseason. I don't think he'll hang it up...not when he's just had his best statistical season ever and not when he sees the likes of Brady, Brees, Rivers (all older than him) playing well so late in their careers...and Rodgers just a year younger playing as well as he is. 

 

It's just my opinion :), but I don't think he's done. I actually expect him to play another 2-3 years, but I could be very wrong on this one.  

Most of the guys who have long careers don't take near the hits Ben does.  His body takes a BEATING every year.  Yes, he only took 24 sacks this season, but he's been hit a ton and breaks out of a lot of sacks.

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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

Most of the guys who have long careers don't take near the hits Ben does.  His body takes a BEATING every year.  Yes, he only took 24 sacks this season, but he's been hit a ton and breaks out of a lot of sacks.

 

Well, we'll just agree to disagree on this one. I don't think Ben is going anywhere on the heels of a setting personal highs in TDs and yardage, and producing his third highest completion percentage...and playing all 16 games. He's a resilient guy, especially physically. He could have (perhaps should have) died early in his career, but he bounced back and didn't miss a beat. He's a tough dude. One day it'll catch up, but I don't think this is that day. 

 

Anyway...this is the JJSS thread, and I feel confident in my belief that Roethlisberger will be his QB in 2019. And of course this helps JJ's value next season. 

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

You think Brown leaving will be detrimental to him? Even before Brown Wallace got over 1,000 yards and double digit TDs and JuJu is far superior than Wallace. Ben is a guarantee to support a 1,000 yard WR and that WR has a good chance at getting double digit TDs. This isn't even factoring in JuJu being an extremely great player and he plays at a position where players tend to get better over time.

 

I have no idea what world you live in thinking he will be worse. He is a borderline first round pick without Brown. I don't see why he can't put up numbers somewhat similar to what Brown put up as the WR1. The yards may regress but Brown had 15 TDs this season. JuJu putting up 1,300/13 next year isn't all that unlikely. 

 

Hmmm, because he isn't as good as Brown?  He's only benefited from Brown being on the other side.  He'll be getting double covers and drawing the #1 corner now, and while he'll get most of the targets I'd bet against him getting 13 TD's next year.  We'll see what kind of receiver he is with Brown gone.  Pay the pretty price this coming year at your own risk, he isn't going to be worth the ADP IMO.  I'd rather have a tried and true WR1 at that cost.

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Pretty clear now that AB is not gonna be a Steeler...unless this thing takes a total 180

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Juju gonna either be even bigger monster 120-130 catches OR he struggles to reach 80 catches 

 

Gonna be quite a 2nd round pick for some owner.  Likely Juju will be forced upon someone after Hill, Odell, JJ, Hopkins and Thomas come off the board.  After those 5 are gone all the other WR1s are very close with AB a question mark of his own. 

Edited by Zak0221

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3 hours ago, Zak0221 said:

Juju gonna either be even bigger monster 120-130 catches OR he struggles to reach 80 catches 

 

Gonna be quite a 2nd round pick for some owner.  Likely Juju will be forced upon someone after Hill, Odell, JJ, Hopkins and Thomas come off the board.  After those 5 are gone all the other WR1s are very close with AB a question mark of his own. 

Adams, Evans, and Julio belong in that class.

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46 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Adams, Evans, and Julio belong in that class.

 

JJ = Julio but you are correct DA and Evans also should go before people consider JuJu. 

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27 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

JJ = Julio but you are correct DA and Evans also should go before people consider JuJu. 

Heh my brain just glanced over it.

 

However, in terms of WRs I consider Hopkins in a tier of his own. Then Hill in a tier of his own. Similar to the Brown Odell situation a few years back where they were pretty much the consensus first two WRs with Brown getting the edge.

 

After that, all the other 5 guys are great. I would be extremely happy with any of them at my WR and none of them really have any red flags or questions as far as i'm concerned. This year the 4th or 5th pick is absolutely amazing. Pairing a stud RB with a stud WR is the best foundation for a draft in recent memory really. The top 5 RBs and top 7 WRs are incredibly deep and after that there is a drop off.

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If brown is traded... I will draft Juju... 1st overall. He will be the best player in football. 127/1750/11

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I'm keeping him in a three keeper. He just has IT and encompassed in all of that is a great attitude, work ethic, and hunger for the game. He isn't selfish, he's gonna go far. 

 

If he keeps up these types of numbers, he'll go to the HOF. 

 

JuJu is really young, that means he'll hit FA sooner than most, so I wouldn't shy away thinking "Once Ben is gone the ship just dies." 

 

JuJu is built like a horse and has house call speed, already has two from 97 yards out. 

 

WR1 right now, whether Brown stays or goes. 

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Juju will beast next year, but the guy smart owners will be jumping on is Washington or whoever steps up and takes that WR2 role.

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