Boudewijn

JuJu Smith-Schuster 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Ben looked like he was losing his fire in 2017 then they drafted that one guy and he went back to fire and rapey eyes Ben. 

 

I traded for big Ben the week after his 5 interception game against the jags 2 years ago. Hes been on fire ever since. 

Since the 2017 week 5 match up against the jags big Ben has averaged 311yards per game and 2tds a game. He still every throw on the field and still not afraid to wait in the pocket and take hits. His defense should not be much better next season. 

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2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I'm still a believer, if he fails this year though I'll gladly walk away and admit he's not fantasy relevant, but today I'm licking my chops at 165 or whatever he is and being a WR sleeper guy

Go do your drooling over here:

I link to this specific post btw because Andy also says some wise things about JuJu.

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16 hours ago, bomont said:

lol @ 1400 yds is any WR's floor. Trying to trade him are you?  ;)

I like his potential though. Definitely look at him if I don't get one of the top WRs.

No sir I wouldn’t trade him for anything. He IS one of the top WR’s. I would feel good about putting his floor at 1400 yards. I can see him averaging 85-95 yards a game over the season. I’m pretty sure he had 8 or 9 100 yard games last year only behind Julio and Theilen I believe. 

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No WR's floor is 1400 yds, sorry that's a pipe dream. As I said elsewhere, 1400 is an elite number that even top WRs often don't get. It's achievable but not a floor. 

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45 minutes ago, bomont said:

No WR's floor is 1400 yds, sorry that's a pipe dream. As I said elsewhere, 1400 is an elite number that even top WRs often don't get. It's achievable but not a floor. 

An elite number for an elite WR. I feel pretty strongly about this. I’ll come back week 17 if I’m wrong, but he’s gonna blow up. 

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5 minutes ago, bomont said:

elite number = ceiling, not floor is my point

1400 yards isn’t his ceiling though. That’s his floor. That’s an elite number yes, but not the ceiling for someone with the skills and opportunity that juju has. 

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10 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

1400 yards isn’t his ceiling though. That’s his floor. That’s an elite number yes, but not the ceiling for someone with the skills and opportunity that juju has. 

Only 3 players currently active have consecutive 1400 yard seasons as a receiver (AB, Julio and Demariyus Thomas). Even Nuk, OBJ or Michael Thomas haven't achieved it (yet). Are you sure he's already better than those 3?

If we're talking floor, let's make it 1100 or 1200. That's still an elite floor, but I think JuJu can be elite.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Only 3 players currently active have consecutive 1400 yard seasons as a receiver (AB, Julio and Demariyus Thomas). Even Nuk, OBJ or Michael Thomas haven't achieved it (yet). Are you sure he's already better than those 3?

If we're talking floor, let's make it 1100 or 1200. That's still an elite floor, but I think JuJu can be elite.

Better then those 3? Hard to say. I think you have a pissed off Big Ben that wants to prove everyone wrong. A pissed juju that wants to show he can be the #1. A defense that is improving but probably won’t finish top 15. Last year they lead the league in pass attempts. I don’t see that happening this year. However i dont think they do a complete 180 either. Ben hasn’t been a turn around and hand it off guy for years. Juju will be fed, 10-15 targets, every week. No way he finishes with less then 1400 yards. 

 

Also, Nuk hasn’t had desean watson for two full seasons. OBJ had a washed up Eli. Brees not only spreads the ball around a ton, but they also turned into a really run heavy team. With the RB’s accounting for a lot of his targets too. Juju has a HOF QB in arguably in his prime showing 0 signs of decline. On a pass happy team. It’s the perfect storm. 

Edited by Ryansm11
Didn’t finish

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3 hours ago, bomont said:

No WR's floor is 1400 yds, sorry that's a pipe dream. As I said elsewhere, 1400 is an elite number that even top WRs often don't get. It's achievable but not a floor. 

Idk julios might be 1400. Hes gotten it 5 years in a row. He might be the only exception because he could be a top 10 wr to ever play and he has a qb with mvp potential and both are still in their late prime years 

 

1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

Juju has a HOF QB in arguably in his prime showing 0 signs of decline. On a pass happy team. It’s the perfect storm. 

Big Ben is 37. Probably not his prime but he sure hasnt showed any signs of slowing down. But it think giving someone 1400 yards as a floor is a bit of a reach considering his career best was just over 1400 yards. Ben has also been known to get roughed up and we dont know if juju can handle being a #1. I read he ran something like 65% of his routes from the slot last year. Which means he was mostly covered by a nickel corner which tends to be the 3rd best corner on the team. I think juju could get 1400 again. But to say that's his floor Is awfully high expectations. You might be putting juju on a pedestal.

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10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Idk julios might be 1400. Hes gotten it 5 years in a row. He might be the only exception because he could be a top 10 wr to ever play and he has a qb with mvp potential and both are still in their late prime years 

 

Big Ben is 37. Probably not his prime but he sure hasnt showed any signs of slowing down. But it think giving someone 1400 yards as a floor is a bit of a reach considering his career best was just over 1400 yards. Ben has also been known to get roughed up and we dont know if juju can handle being a #1. I read he ran something like 65% of his routes from the slot last year. Which means he was mostly covered by a nickel corner which tends to be the 3rd best corner on the team. I think juju could get 1400 again. But to say that's his floor Is awfully high expectations. You might be putting juju on a pedestal.

Julio’s is absolutely 1400. I am putting juju on a pedastool, I’m a completely biased Steelers fan who watches every game. But at 22 years old he just put up a 110/1400 season. His third year now, he will have every chance to repeat if not exceed that. If you want to see some tape of him on the outside go watch the jaguars a game from this year. He took Ramsay and bouye to church on the last two drives to help win the game. He has what it takes. Everyone else has him pegged as a fringe first rounder. He’s a top 5 pick to me, and he backs up this year. You guys can quote me after week 17, I’ll happily eat crow if he bombs. 

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

Julio’s is absolutely 1400. I am putting juju on a pedastool, I’m a completely biased Steelers fan who watches every game. But at 22 years old he just put up a 110/1400 season. His third year now, he will have every chance to repeat if not exceed that. If you want to see some tape of him on the outside go watch the jaguars a game from this year. He took Ramsay and bouye to church on the last two drives to help win the game. He has what it takes. Everyone else has him pegged as a fringe first rounder. He’s a top 5 pick to me, and he backs up this year. You guys can quote me after week 17, I’ll happily eat crow if he bombs. 

I'm high on JuJu's talent; just check my starting post.

But I'm not a fan, I'm a fantasy player, and that means I need to be realistic. I repeat: 1400 is not a floor. He can achieve it, but it would be remarkable. It's just not a floor.

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On 6/15/2019 at 12:14 PM, Ryansm11 said:

1400 yards isn’t his ceiling though. That’s his floor.

Antonio Brown has reached 1400 yards once in the last 3 years. After Jerry Rice became the greatest of all time in the strike-shortened 1987 season, he reached 1400 yards just twice in the next 5 seasons (played all 16 games each season).

No, 1400 yards is not JuJu's floor.

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4 hours ago, andypro77 said:

Antonio Brown has reached 1400 yards once in the last 3 years. After Jerry Rice became the greatest of all time in the strike-shortened 1987 season, he reached 1400 yards just twice in the next 5 seasons (played all 16 games each season).

No, 1400 yards is not JuJu's floor.

Brown had 1400 4 out of the last 6 though. You can make stats sound however you want. Jerry rice didn’t play in this passing era. You guys sit back and watch, I hope you get juju on your team. 

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22 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Brown had 1400 4 out of the last 6 though. 

Which makes him a lock for the HoF, more or less. Again, 1400+ is the stuff of legends, and I'm not saying JuJu can't be in that league, but let's not pretend he's already there. He's not, and the odds are stacked against him in 2019.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Which makes him a lock for the HoF, more or less. Again, 1400+ is the stuff of legends, and I'm not saying JuJu can't be in that league, but let's not pretend he's already there. He's not, and the odds are stacked against him in 2019.

I guess that’s where we just see 2019 different. I think the odds are absolutely in his favor. Top 5 in targets with a HOF QB. He definitely has the talent and skills. Plus him and Ben are going to try to prove a point. He’s a first round pick in fantasy this year. 

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

You guys sit back and watch, I hope you get juju on your team. 

 

7 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Plus him and Ben are going to try to prove a point. He’s a first round pick in fantasy this year. 

 

Look, I think most people here agree that JuJu is going to be good. And he's right on the border of a 1st round pick.

I think what you're missing is that no one is arguing against his talent or his situation, or his high ceiling. What most people are arguing is the idea that his 'floor is 1400 yards'.

Patrick Mahomes 'floor' is not 50 TD passes, just because he did it last year. But I still think Mahomes is great.
Christian McCaffrey's 'floor' is not 105 catches, just because he did it last year. But I still think McCaffrey is great.
Saquon Barkely's 'floor' is not 2000 total yards and 15 TDs, even though he did it last year. But I still think Barkley is great.

Get it?

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

 

 

Look, I think most people here agree that JuJu is going to be good. And he's right on the border of a 1st round pick.

I think what you're missing is that no one is arguing against his talent or his situation, or his high ceiling. What most people are arguing is the idea that his 'floor is 1400 yards'.

Patrick Mahomes 'floor' is not 50 TD passes, just because he did it last year. But I still think Mahomes is great.
Christian McCaffrey's 'floor' is not 105 catches, just because he did it last year. But I still think McCaffrey is great.
Saquon Barkely's 'floor' is not 2000 total yards and 15 TDs, even though he did it last year. But I still think Barkley is great.

Get it?

I absolutely understand. I’m not basing what I’m saying off what he did last year. Everything changes year to year in foootball, anyone who chases last year’s stats always regret it. I’m saying his floor is 1400 yards because of opportunity and talent. 2015 Antonio brown had 193 targets. I could see juju hitting that no problem. I don’t see any way he finishes with less then 1400. I will happily come here and talk about what an idiot I am week 17 if he doesn’t get there. We can all quote me and laugh at everything I said. But his floor is 1400 yards this year, book it. 

Edited by Ryansm11
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10 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I don’t see any way he finishes with less then 1400. I will happily come here and talk about what an idiot I am week 17 if he doesn’t get there.

You're STILL not getting it.

Even if he finishes this year with 1475 yards at the end of the season, his 'floor', RIGHT NOW, is NOT 1400 yards. You don't understand what people mean when they say floor.

When people use 'floor' in a fantasy football discussion, they mean a reasonable guess at the minimum production assuming no injuries and assuming standard performance for that particular player's age, talent, situation, etc.

And finally, since we're now here, you're doing another thing that us fantasy footballers often do: you're only looking at one half of the equation, and not factoring in the other half. To wit:

Good QB: Yes. Talent: Yes Opportunity: Yes
If you stop there, you might say JuJu is a lock for a monster season.

But you forgot the negatives:

1. Ben is 37 years old. Manning, Brady, Brees (not even 4K last season) have all still been very good QBs at a later age, but there numbers all fell off. And Ben isn't as good as any of them.
2. The Steelers lost Bell and AB the past two seasons. That has to hurt their overall production over the long haul
3. And here's the biggest one: JuJu benefited from having one of the best WRs in football take coverage away from him. We've NEVER seen if JuJu can put up monster numbers against #1 corners, because they've always covered AB.

This year, the Steelers #1 WR will go up against top corners Denzel Ward (twice), Carr/Humphrey (Ravens - twice), Stephon Gilmore, Xavien Howard, etc etc etc; and in week 14, right around fantasy playoff time, the Steelers play the Cardinals. That has never been a big deal for JuJu, since Patrick Peterson would have been covering AB, but now he's covering JuJu.

You have to consider all factors when you assess a player's likely outcomes, not just those factors that agree with your already decided upon assessment.

I'd say there's roughly an 85+% chance that JuJu doesn't hit 1400 yards.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

You're STILL not getting it.

Even if he finishes this year with 1475 yards at the end of the season, his 'floor', RIGHT NOW, is NOT 1400 yards. You don't understand what people mean when they say floor.

When people use 'floor' in a fantasy football discussion, they mean a reasonable guess at the minimum production assuming no injuries and assuming standard performance for that particular player's age, talent, situation, etc.

And finally, since we're now here, you're doing another thing that us fantasy footballers often do: you're only looking at one half of the equation, and not factoring in the other half. To wit:

Good QB: Yes. Talent: Yes Opportunity: Yes
If you stop there, you might say JuJu is a lock for a monster season.

But you forgot the negatives:

1. Ben is 37 years old. Manning, Brady, Brees (not even 4K last season) have all still been very good QBs at a later age, but there numbers all fell off. And Ben isn't as good as any of them.
2. The Steelers lost Bell and AB the past two seasons. That has to hurt their overall production over the long haul
3. And here's the biggest one: JuJu benefited from having one of the best WRs in football take coverage away from him. We've NEVER seen if JuJu can put up monster numbers against #1 corners, because they've always covered AB.

This year, the Steelers #1 WR will go up against top corners Denzel Ward (twice), Carr/Humphrey (Ravens - twice), Stephon Gilmore, Xavien Howard, etc etc etc; and in week 14, right around fantasy playoff time, the Steelers play the Cardinals. That has never been a big deal for JuJu, since Patrick Peterson would have been covering AB, but now he's covering JuJu.

You have to consider all factors when you assess a player's likely outcomes, not just those factors that agree with your already decided upon assessment.

I'd say there's roughly an 85+% chance that JuJu doesn't hit 1400 yards.

An 85% chance? You’re out of your mindddddddd. Ben threw for 5000 yards last year, he’s shown 0 decline. He won’t throw for that many this year with less weapons, but he’s just as good as any of them right now. I understand juju will face the #1 guy now every week. However there are over 200 targets available now. So even if he struggles a bit more from last year, you are looking at 30-50 more targets. I think he actually leads the nfl in targets this year.  1400 is the minimum production from him this year, therefore his floor. 

 

 

He was 4th in targets with 166. AB was 2nd with 169. Now take away AB. What happens with those targets alone? A lot of them are soaked up by some other guys. Juju will push for 200 this year however. 

Edited by Ryansm11
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

Brown had 1400 4 out of the last 6 though. You can make stats sound however you want. Jerry rice didn’t play in this passing era. You guys sit back and watch, I hope you get juju on your team. 

The other 2 season he had near 1300 yards and missed 1 game in both seasons.  So he very could have had 1400 in 6 straight seasons with some luck on his side.

 

Let be honest here people, the Pittsburgh offense isn't your normal offense.  Juju's chances of high yardage are much higher than most.  He also has some positive regression coming in the TD department.  29 targets in the red zone last year and only 5 TD's.

Edited by RMJ_12

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53 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

An 85% chance? You’re out of your mindddddddd.

You don't understand the meaning of the word 'floor', and apparently you're not going to.

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8 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

You don't understand the meaning of the word 'floor', and apparently you're not going to.

Floor is the worst possible outcome. I understand. Juju has a floor of 1400 yards. He won’t do worse then that. 

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On 6/15/2019 at 12:14 PM, Ryansm11 said:

1400 yards isn’t his ceiling though. That’s his floor. 

 

Nah.

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