thebadferret

Kerryon Johnson 2019 Outlook

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2018 stats:

 

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Missed weeks 12+ with an MCL sprain, but recent reports stated that he would have been ready to if the Lions made the playoffs.

He averaged 5.4 yards on 118 carries and caught 32 of 39 targets (82.1%). To this he added 3 rushing and 1 receiving TD.

 

Although it looks very slim in the touchdown department behold of the situation with LaGarrette Blount. To this point it's not clear what will happen to him in the next season. If the Lions were not to resign Blount there would be another 154 rush attempts up for grabs. And especially the 26 RZ attempts (19 inside 10, 11 inside 5) are of great value.

 

Theo Reddick will still eat big time into his passing work, so PPR player be aware.

 

_____________________________

 

I drafted KJ this year but traded him mid season, because I was not sure about his usage. Especially Blount's TD vulturing was a torture to see as a KJ owner. 

For '19 it will be all about the ADP. It will be exciting to see were his ADP lands in the end (#19 RB; end of round 5 currently on FantasyPros).

 

 

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I drafted KJ in both my leagues hoping that he would eventually take over the backfield.  I was very impressed by KJ once he started to take over the bulk of the work in Detriot.  It's a shame that he got hurt towards the end of the season, because he looks like he was starting to get into a groove.  Hopefully, his injury will keep him off peoples radar for next seasons draft and I can scoop him up in the 5th or 6th round? 

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Kerryon definitely passes the eye test and the stats back it up.  Hopefully Patricia will wake up and the new OC will use him more in both the running and passing game. 

 

He's a guy that's going to get drafted outside the top 10 RB.  If the team gives him more work (which they should), good chance that he is a top 10 fantasy RB by the end of the 2019 season.

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9 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Kerryon definitely passes the eye test and the stats back it up.  Hopefully Patricia will wake up and the new OC will use him more in both the running and passing game. 

 

He's a guy that's going to get drafted outside the top 10 RB.  If the team gives him more work (which they should), good chance that he is a top 10 fantasy RB by the end of the 2019 season.

 

I like Kerryon, but I don't see him as a top 10 RB in 2019. Maybe an outside chance, but not good chance, imho. I'm thinking somewhere in the 15-18 range. 

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Already being under-valued.  What's not to like about him?

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I like Kerryon, but I don't see him as a top 10 RB in 2019. Maybe an outside chance, but not good chance, imho. I'm thinking somewhere in the 15-18 range. 

He was on target for say a 1300 yd season on 200-250 touches. That's around RB10, on a team that wasn't very good.

The Lions are interesting. KJ, Golladay, Marvin Jones, Stratford - come on, that should make a decent offense, right? All they need is an O-line.

 

So if the Lions draft well (that's a big if right there), and if Matt Patricia gets his head out of his 4$$ and gives some support to this offense... then yes, I can see KJ get into the top-10.

There's only one slight niggly little problem with that reasoning:

https://sidelionreport.com/2018/05/28/detroit-lions-kerryon-johnsons-injury-history-troubling/

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It's not that I dislike him, and I don't believe putting him at RB15 is undervaluing him. He's not a big guy, so will he hold up to 250-275 touches in a season? Will the Lions keep a "goal line" back around to have a pounder inside the 5? I actually like Kerryon quite a bit, but I just don't see him being a top 10-12 RB in 2019. 

 

RBs I like more (in no particular order)...

Gurley

Saquon

CMC

Kamara

Zeke

MG3

Bell

Conner

Mixon

Chubb

DJ 

Mack

AJones

Drake (now that Gase is gone)

KC RB

 

That's 15. If the Redskins backfield consists of just Guice and Thompason (ie, AP is elsewhere), then Guice could have a bigger season than Kerryon. Guys like Michel and Henry could end up scoring more than him. Depending on where Ingram ends up, he could be someone who outscores KJ. 

 

It's not a dislike of Kerryon or undervaluing him. As I said before, I actually like him quite a bit and believe he has a bright future. I just don't see him breaking into the top 10-12. And of course I could be wrong...just my perspective. 

 

Out of curiosity, in that list of 15, who would you guys put him ahead of? 

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9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

He was on target for say a 1300 yd season on 200-250 touches. That's around RB10, on a team that wasn't very good.

 

I think one thing we're witnessing is a deepening of the RB position again, and young backs like Kerryon is one of the reasons. I don't believe RB10 stats in 2018 are going to be RB10 stats in 2019. Jmho :)

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Out of curiosity, in that list of 15, who would you guys put him ahead of? 

 

Tier 1: (almost) guaranteed greatness

Gurley, Saquon,  CMC, Kamara, Zeke, MG3 (borderline)

 

Tier 2: greatness, with some doubts

Bell, Conner, Mixon, Chubb, DJ , Mack (Kareem Hunt?)


So far, I think we won't disagree much, although we could probably bicker over some names and some tiers.
 

Tier 3: Potential for greatness

Let's put him here, and then we should probably add:

Damien Williams (assuming he gets the nod in KC)

Drake (maybe... I don't really think so)

A Jones (based on a limited number of games in 2018)

Tarik Cohen (assuming he convinces Nagy)

Philip Lindsay

Chris Carson (maybe even tier 2)

Fournette (if he stays healthy)

Dalvin Cook (if he stays healthy)

Henry (if he keeps momentum)

Michel (because you say so, I don't see it yet)

 

Actually this tier is really crowded, and we should split it. But this makes him somewhere around RB12-20, so I think we agree in general. We also don't disagree on his durability.

 

Please note I didn't say "Rock solid RB10" (like some people). I said: he was on target for RB10. IF he could stay healthy (which so far, he can't), who knows? That's why I definitely wouldn't take him in the first 2 rounds, but in say round 4-5, this could be a sneaky steal (no, I don't think he'll drop that far either).

Edited by Boudewijn
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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Out of curiosity, in that list of 15, who would you guys put him ahead of? 

Not sure how you can dislike Kerryon because of size and ability to carry a workload, but then put Drake ahead of him lol

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I'm actually pretty hot on KJ this year, too. ADPs will change for sure this year, but if I really can get him at the end of round 5 I would pull the trigger immediatly.

I don't think he will be a top 10 RB this year, he could though.

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Completely unrelated, but does anyone else feel the need to loudly sing whenever you see the guy's name?

[add-text output image]

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11 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Completely unrelated, but does anyone else feel the need to loudly sing whenever you see the guy's name?

[add-text output image]

 

One of the podcasts I listen to (I think its The Fantasy Footballers) made a meme out of this (or another song, don't remember correctly):D

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Now that Kerryon has had a partial season in which he shined, it would be foolish of the Lions to stick with this horrible committee.  However, I simply don't trust this staff.   I feel like Patricia is one of the worst coaches in the league, and the GM refusing to gut the RB's last summer was head-scratching, so I dont trust him either.   These are guys that come from the NE chain, where they never seem  to just commit to a back. 

 

I need to see them not re-sign Blount, and not bring in a similar plodder like Chris Ivory or something, just so I feel good about Kerryon being able to get a decent amount of TD's.   Riddick doesn't scare me too much, he's a bit expensive so he might even be cut.   I'll watch his ADP closely though, and hope if there's unclear usage, he CMC's his way to forcing the OC's hand.

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9 hours ago, LuckBox1 said:

Rock solid RB1 in 2019.

Care to make a list of the top 12? I want to see who you have KJ over

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12 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Not sure how you can dislike Kerryon because of size and ability to carry a workload, but then put Drake ahead of him lol

 

I'm not sure if you're trolling...can't read...won't read...or what. 

 

1. I do not dislike Kerryon Johnson. I've said that multiple times already and, in fact, have said that I like him quite a bit. So I assume now that you'll stop putting words in my mouth. 

 

2. Size-wise, KJ is 5'11", 206...Drake is 6'1", 211. So I'm not not really sure what your point about their sizes are. Drake is two inches taller and five pounds heavier. And Drake has played all 48 games in his NFL career, while KJ missed six in his first season. So you tell me who has shown that his durability can be trusted. 

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Size-wise, KJ is 5'11", 206...Drake is 6'1", 211. So I'm not not really sure what your point about their sizes are. Drake is two inches taller and five pounds heavier. And Drake has played all 48 games in his NFL career, while KJ missed six in his first season. So you tell me who has shown that his durability can be trusted. 

Which means Kerryon is BIGGER, Drake is TALLER.  There's a difference.

 

Drake has never received more than 173 touches in a season and there may be a good reason for it.

 

 

17 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

It's not that I dislike him, and I don't believe putting him at RB15 is undervaluing him. He's not a big guy, so will he hold up to 250-275 touches in a season? Will the Lions keep a "goal line" back around to have a pounder inside the 5?

 

RBs I like more (in no particular order)...

Gurley

Saquon

CMC

Kamara

Zeke

MG3

Bell

Conner

Mixon

Chubb

DJ 

Mack

AJones

Drake (now that Gase is gone)

KC RB

I'm just not sure why Kerryon needs 250-275 touches to be better than Kenyan Drake anyhow.

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38 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Which means Kerryon is BIGGER, Drake is TALLER.  There's a difference.

 

Drake has never received more than 173 touches in a season and there may be a good reason for it.

 

 

I'm just not sure why Kerryon needs 250-275 touches to be better than Kenyan Drake anyhow.

KJ a lower center of gravity maybe but drake is bigger. 

 

Id put the lack of touches for Kenyan on the coaches more than anything. He may have had some injuries in college (broken ankle in 2014, cracked rib, sprained ankle, concussion, quad contusion) but he's been pretty healthy in his NFL career (right? I can't find much on injuries there)

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59 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Which means Kerryon is BIGGER, Drake is TALLER.  There's a difference.

 

Drake has never received more than 173 touches in a season and there may be a good reason for it.

 

 

I'm just not sure why Kerryon needs 250-275 touches to be better than Kenyan Drake anyhow.

 

No. Drake is simply bigger. 

Coaching decisions are why Drake hasn't gotten more touches, not lack of durability. And I expect that to change in 2019. 

 

As to your last point...ff we project each of their numbers out to 200 carries and 75 receptions (275 touches), we get...

Drake: 200-892-6...75-688-7...1,580 totals yards and 13 TD.

Johnson: 200-1086-5...75-499-2...1,585 total yards and 7 TD. 

 

In any case, I like how you're picking out one guy in the 15 that I listed. How about telling me how putting him in the RB15 range, as I did, is undervaluing him? 

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59 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

KJ a lower center of gravity maybe but drake is bigger.

No, I mean bigger as in a larger BMI.  Drake is taller.

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18 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Out of curiosity, in that list of 15, who would you guys put him ahead of? 

 

I agree with your list of 15 guys you should draft before KJ, but that doesn't mean KJ can't be a top 10 back next season if he stays healthy.  Close to half the guys on your list will either not live up to their ADP, be a complete bust or will get injured.  If you look at the top 15 RB's in standard scoring at the beginning of the season and where they ended up at the end of the season only 9 out of 15 were still in the top 15 at the end of the season.  

 

1.       Gurley (1)

2.       DJ (12)

3.       Elliot (5)

4.       Barkley (2)

5.       Hunt (8)

6.       Kamara (4)

7.       Fournette (37)

8.       Cook (30)

9.       Gordon (6)

10.   CMC (3)

11.   Bell (NA)

12.   McCoy (39)

13.   Freeman (108)

14.   Howard (18)

15.   Mixon (9)

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Coaching decisions are why Drake hasn't gotten more touches, not lack of durability. And I expect that to change in 2019.

Why can't a new coaching staff just mean more touches for Kalen Ballage?

 

41 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

As to your last point...ff we project each of their numbers out to 200 carries and 75 receptions (275 touches), we get...

Drake: 200-892-6...75-688-7...1,580 totals yards and 13 TD.

Johnson: 200-1086-5...75-499-2...1,585 total yards and 7 TD. 

Okay?

 

41 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

In any case, I like how you're picking out one guy in the 15 that I listed. 

The reasoning just didn't make any sense.  Kerryon also has no competition in Detriot.  Moving Along.

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24 minutes ago, chief79 said:

 

I agree with your list of 15 guys you should draft before KJ, but that doesn't mean KJ can't be a top 10 back next season if he stays healthy.  Close to half the guys on your list will either not live up to their ADP, be a complete bust or will get injured.  If you look at the top 15 RB's in standard scoring at the beginning of the season and where they ended up at the end of the season only 9 out of 15 were still in the top 15 at the end of the season.  

 

1.       Gurley (1)

2.       DJ (12)

3.       Elliot (5)

4.       Barkley (2)

5.       Hunt (8)

6.       Kamara (4)

7.       Fournette (37)

8.       Cook (30)

9.       Gordon (6)

10.   CMC (3)

11.   Bell (NA)

12.   McCoy (39)

13.   Freeman (108)

14.   Howard (18)

15.   Mixon (9)

 

 

 

Yeah, I don't disagree with you. The same could be said of KJ, but as of this moment, I would take those 15 guys over him. So I think he has a chance to get into the top 10, but not a good chance. If things break right, then sure. 

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19 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why can't a new coaching staff just mean more touches for Kalen Ballage?

 

Okay?

 

The reasoning just didn't make any sense.  Kerryon also has no competition in Detriot.  Moving Along.

 

They very well could, though I don't think Ballege is all that good. He could end up being Miami's version of Blount next year, however. 

 

You said you didn't know why Kerryon needed 250-275 touches to be better than Drake. So I extrapolated their stats out to 275 touches (200 rushes, 75 receptions)...showing that Drake equaled KJ in total yards and nearly doubled his TDs. 

 

Makes perfect sense...Drake his bigger than KJ and hasn't missed a game in the NFL, while KJ missed 6 games his rookie season. Even so, you pick one guy? Your initial post said I was undervaluing KJ by putting him at RB 15-18. So of the 15 that I listed, aside from Drake, show my how I undervalued him. Where would you put him in that list? Or how would you rank your top 15? 

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