thebadferret

Kerryon Johnson 2019 Outlook

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58 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

No, I mean bigger as in a larger BMI.  Drake is taller.

Yeah I guess KJ is fatter than Drake

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Dude passes the eye test with flying colors, and is more than apt in the passing game. O Coordinator hiring will be interesting. Training camp and preseason buzz will make Kerryon a 3rd rounder come draft season.  Patricia seems dedicated to run the ball. Arrow pointing up.

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Your initial post said I was undervaluing KJ by putting him at RB 15-18.

No it didn't...

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13 hours ago, Mr2Saint said:

Dude passes the eye test with flying colors, and is more than apt in the passing game. O Coordinator hiring will be interesting. Training camp and preseason buzz will make Kerryon a 3rd rounder come draft season.  Patricia seems dedicated to run the ball. Arrow pointing up.

As a Detroit resident and someone tuned in to the team I will double down on this. In his presser last week Bob Quinn reinforced the fact that they want to be a run first team moving forward regardless who the new OC is. That isn't something we're used to hearing here, but it does bode well for KJ next year assuming the dead weight wearing #29 is out of the picture. Kerryon is a star

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Kid is a stud, two things holding him back tho. 1) injuries (comes with the rb position in general) 2) his coach is a moron.

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10 hours ago, Wild Thing said:

Anyone else worried about KJ’s ability to stay healthy? Wasn’t he hurt all the time in college?

 

He does have a history of injuries, but didn't miss much time in college - only 4 games. Tough kid. Hopefully he can put together a fully healthy season in 2019 and give us 16 full games of production.

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Great player.  Bad situation.  Matt Patricia is quickly pacing to the top of the list of horrid coaches.  How in the f*** do you give a washed up corpse in Blount 154 carries to plod to 2.7 YPC is beyond me.  This fat a** is a s*** coach, he’s a wannabe Belichick when he won’t ever hold his jock.  Sadly for fantasy a turd bag like Fat Matt will probably hold back Kerryon from reaching his full potential.  But he should still be a top 20 RB, health permitting.  He’s got amazing skill sets.  

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On 1/11/2019 at 10:47 AM, Joe Odam said:

As a Detroit resident and someone tuned in to the team I will double down on this. In his presser last week Bob Quinn reinforced the fact that they want to be a run first team moving forward regardless who the new OC is. That isn't something we're used to hearing here, but it does bode well for KJ next year assuming the dead weight wearing #29 is out of the picture. Kerryon is a star

The Darrell Bevell OC hire all but ensures they are going to ride Kerryon into the ground. Stock up

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Loving Kerryon Johnson in 2019 the more I think about it.

 

== ADP Value

There's a string of RBs in the 3rd-4th round .....

Jones, Henry, Mack, Guice, Freeman, Carson, Kerryon, McKinnon

.... and one or two of these guys will break out and be RB1s.  Every year there's a mid round guy to do it.

It wouldn't surprise me to see any of them be that guy, but Kerryon may be my guy.  Mack and/or Jones are right there.

 

Other guys are either coming off of major injury, or have good young RBs pushing for significant time behind them, or don't have a 3 down skillset.  Kerryon really has everything going for him, and now they bring in Bevell to build a run-first offense.

 

Mack kind of checks those boxes.  I like Kerryon's talent more.

Jones checks them too.  Matt LaFleur is a big question mark.  He didn't throw to RBs in TEN and Rodgers rarely did last year.

I love Guice but the QB/WR situation is as bad as it gets, and returning from ACL scares me too.

Freeman's one concussion away from done and yet another OC comes to town.

Henry's always a risk to get game-scripted out of a week.

Carson's got Penny to deal with.

McKinnon's off an ACL and we've never seen him be the guy.

 

Don't get me wrong I'd love to own any of these guys, but if I had to pick one, right now, I think I lean Kerryon.

 

== Injury History

He's gotta show he can stay healthy, yeah, but none of these guys (except Henry) have stellar track records of availability.

Kerryon played through an injured shoulder his senior year in college.  Then suffered the MCL sprain his rookie year.  I think it's the same injury Gurley and Gordon played through, and Kerryon would've pushed if they had playoff hopes.

Yeah, it's something to watch.  But I'm not gonna not draft the guy cuz of his history.  It's been nothing major so far.

 

== Situation

The Lions offensive line is really good.  Underrated, at least. 

LT Decker is a former first rounder, and was Zeke's LT at OSU.  Better run blocker than pass blocker.

LG Ragnow, Lions spent their 2018 first round pick on.  Run blocking mauler.

C Glasgow is average.

RG Lang don't know much about but was a big FA signing from GB who seemed to have a good reputation

RT Wagner FA signing from Baltimore, he was a prized FA when Lions signed him.

 

They dumped Jim Bob Cooter who couldn't call a run game to save his life.  He resurrected the offense after Joe Lombardi was fired in 2014 (I think it was?) and implemented a quick passing game.  Good for Golden Tate, and for Stafford to put up numbers.  Not good for much else.

 

Darrell Bevell was the OC behind Beast Mode in Seattle.  Don't know what he can do in the passing game but he is a strong run game coordinator.

 

Basically what I'm saying is that all the pieces around Kerryon Johnson are shaping up to make him the centerpiece.  The Detroit Lions organization is putting him in a position to succeed.

 

== Comparison

Kerryon's vibe is an awful lot like another break out running back from last year at this time.  He was a stud talent, 2nd round running back, but drafted into a situation with a veteran banger and a veteran 3rd down back.  The team wasn't very good.  He struggled to stay healthy in his rookie season, but the times that they did commit to him, he put up like an RB1.  Entering his sophomore season, all indications are that the offense runs through him now.  Dynamic runner, elite receiving chops, veterans fall away and the team looks to him...  I'm talking of course about Joe Mixon.

 

== Last thought

I'm not going to rank Kerryon above RB15 right now.  I could project his workload and maybe he'd come out there.  But plain and simple there are more guys who have already broken out and done it that I need to draft ahead of Kerryon.  You guys can argue if he's an RB1 or if he should be ranked top 12 or whatever.  I don't know how much good that does us right now.

 

All I'm saying is that when the time comes in the draft and I know Kerryon isn't making it back to me, I'm probably (at this moment) pulling the trigger over some of these other RBs ranked higher than him.  I'm reaching.  I see value at his ADP.  I see a guy who should be drafted outside the top 12 who I could easily see finishing top 12.  If the hype gets out of control and I need to draft him with Cook or Michel or Fournette, I'll be passing, but I really don't think it gets that crazy.

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Excellent post - just one minor point I’d add: LaFleur did target his backs 85 times last season.  I wouldn’t expect Jones to want for a role in the passing game.

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Just now, BMcP said:

Excellent post - just one minor point I’d add: LaFleur did target his backs 85 times last season.  I wouldn’t expect Jones to want for a role in the passing game.

 

85 RB targets was the 2nd least in the league.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/rb.php?year=2018&start=1&end=17&show=totals

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3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Goodness - you’re right - nice find and I stand corrected!  That’s very odd, especially after investing so much money in a back like Dion Lewis!

 

I will say, though, that it looks like that team total plummets due to the presence of Derrick Henry and his virtually non-existent pass-catching role.  If you look just at targets to each team’s primary pass-catching back, Lewis falls squarely in the middle (15th) just ahead of Melvin Gordon.

Edited by BMcP

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12 minutes ago, BMcP said:

That’s very odd, especially after investing so much money in a back like Dion Lewis!

 

I will say, though, that it looks like that team total plummets due to the presence of Derrick Henry and his virtually non-existent pass-catching role.  If you look just at targets to each team’s primary pass-catching back, Lewis falls squarely in the middle (15th) just ahead of Melvin Gordon.

 

Not only investing in Lewis, but LaFleur who, coming over from the "McVay Tree", had me thinking they'd throw to RB a ton.  I for one was fooled but will not make that mistake again.  Goes to show you can't bank on the apprentice being much like the master when any of these new OCs come to town.  It's why I'm preaching caution to those who assume Mixon will get a Gurley workload with Taylor coming to Cincy.

 

Henry's presence may be a factor, but a good OC would have known to throw to him still.  No excuse to be at the bottom of the league in RB passes when all analytics say how effective that strategy is.  Lewis split for a while, then was lead for a bit, then finally became strictly the 3rd down back, so his ranking 15th isn't all that notable to me.

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Your concern about LaFleur and all fellow “apprentices” is noted and warranted.  Without diverting the subject to Henry, I do think it’s fair to wonder at this point why no NFL coach wants his QBs throwing the ball to the guy.  Maybe that changes with Smith?

 

I’m with you in targeting KJ wherever you can if his price remains suppressed.  But assuming KJ and Aaron Jones were equally priced, I’d have to go Jones: I see a bounce-back in a big way for that Packers offense.  Rodgers healthy, untested receivers thrown into full-time service now with a season of game experience under their belts, improvements made via draft/FA, but most importantly, no more McCarthy.  The LaFleur-Rodgers coaching partnership has the potential to be excellent.  And any lingering doubt as to who the better back is in GB has been removed from existence.

 

I don’t think Jones becomes an elite pass-catcher or anything like that - but I could see about 3-4 on average from him next season.

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16 minutes ago, dylanj said:

early 4th round?

 

With Bevell as OC, Kerryon can finish top 5, easy.

He won't make it to mid 2nd.

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I like Jones better than Kerryon as well.  Better to have a RB from a good offense (more TD opportunities, more clock killing opportunities in the 4th quarter) than a RB from an average (at best) Lions offense.  Another thing I like about Jones is that he has a defined backup in Jamaal Williams who has performed pretty well when Jones has been hurt.  Very few people will draft Williams, so he is an easy late handcuff, which gives you security at your RB2 spot.

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3 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

With Bevell as OC, Kerryon can finish top 5, easy.

He won't make it to mid 2nd.

 

My league he will drop like a rock.

He didnt finish the year. Add in the other top 15 rbs, top 10 wrs, top 3 tes, and mahomes, and you have a 3rd rounder easy.

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On 2/11/2019 at 4:57 PM, dylanj said:

 

My league he will drop like a rock.

He didnt finish the year. Add in the other top 15 rbs, top 10 wrs, top 3 tes, and mahomes, and you have a 3rd rounder easy.

 

Agree completely. He'll be a 3rd rounder come August.

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On 2/11/2019 at 12:01 PM, jmausen said:

 

With Bevell as OC, Kerryon can finish top 5, easy.

He won't make it to mid 2nd.

Top 5 easy? Wow...that's awfully ambitious. 

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On 2/11/2019 at 12:01 PM, jmausen said:

 

With Bevell as OC, Kerryon can finish top 5, easy.

He won't make it (*past me) in the mid 2nd.

*Fixed for you

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I see him going in the early 4th round.Which means he's propably a 3rd rounder in my homeleague (16 teams) and I can talk him as my 3rd RB.

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