Boudewijn

Adam Thielen 2019 Outlook

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Over the first 8 weeks of the 2018 season, Thielen was on absolute blistering pace, with 8 subsequent weeks of 100+ yards; in 8 games he had 78/940/6, which would extrapolate to (156/1880/12).  Obviously that was hard to maintain, but I don't think too many people predicted the performance over the remainder of the season:

image.png.53ef03cd8091dcbac9a82f086351c9e1.png 

 

From week 9-17, Thielen had 39/463/3, less than half of the first half of the season. From week 1-8 he was the #1 in all formats, from week 9-17 he was 25-29. That is one hell of a drop.

To be honest, I have no idea what happened, and I hope a Vikings fan weighs in. I understand Thielen had a calf injury for some weeks (https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/vikings-adam-thielen-dealing-with-back-calf-injuries/), I also understand the Vikings O-line was pretty horrible, which also helped neither the running game nor Cousins as QB. Still, the chart for the Vikings yardage trends a bit down towards the end of the season, but not like Thielen, who just crashed.

Image result for adam thielen

So the question is, which Thielen will show up in 2019? Actually, I think that his season overall performance (113/1373/9) should be a good indicator for 2019, which was WR7 overall. The owners who had a bad experience with him during the second half of the season (he was borderline playable) may avoid him, which might bring his price down a bit, but consider me interested. 

Full disclosure: I did not own Thielen; I had gambled that on Diggs being the go-to guy, and missed badly, so if I think in 2019 Thielen may be the better gamble, I may well be wrong again.

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I drafted Thielan with one of my last picks in the 2017 season and it turned out to be by far my best pick that almost redeemed my mediocre draft.

 

He did the same act that season however fading in the second half after a very strong start even though this year's first half for AT was insane.  I wonder if it was as simple as coverage shifted from double teaming Diggs and letting Thielan have underneath stuff to double team Thielan and just put safety over top of Diggs.

 

Seems somewhere along the lines defenses figured out the Vikes passing game and it hurt Cousins.  I don't really want to invest for next season because they will be at a very high ADP because of where they finished in 2018 and I am on the side of the fence that Diggs is the by far better player who still has room to grow.  This type of season may be the best you will see out of Thielan though I expect him to not be as extreme with his 1st/2nd half splits in 2019.  

 

Going to let someone else deal with him and go in other directions for WR1s however if you somehow land this guy as your WR2 it's very ideal with his fantastically high floor in PPR. 

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24 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

I drafted Thielan with one of my last picks in the 2017 season and it turned out to be by far my best pick that almost redeemed my mediocre draft.

 

He did the same act that season however fading in the second half after a very strong start even though this year's first half for AT was insane.  I wonder if it was as simple as coverage shifted from double teaming Diggs and letting Thielan have underneath stuff to double team Thielan and just put safety over top of Diggs.

 

Seems somewhere along the lines defenses figured out the Vikes passing game and it hurt Cousins.  I don't really want to invest for next season because they will be at a very high ADP because of where they finished in 2018 and I am on the side of the fence that Diggs is the by far better player who still has room to grow.  This type of season may be the best you will see out of Thielan though I expect him to not be as extreme with his 1st/2nd half splits in 2019.  

 

Going to let someone else deal with him and go in other directions for WR1s however if you somehow land this guy as your WR2 it's very ideal with his fantastically high floor in PPR. 

 

Same, he saved me 2 years in a row. If he falls to the 3rd round, I'm all over that.

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If Cousins continues to have arguments with his WR 1, not great lol

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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Over the first 8 weeks of the 2018 season, Thielen was on absolute blistering pace, with 8 subsequent weeks of 100+ yards; in 8 games he had 78/940/6, which would extrapolate to (156/1880/12).  Obviously that was hard to maintain, but I don't think too many people predicted the performance over the remainder of the season:

image.png.53ef03cd8091dcbac9a82f086351c9e1.png 

 

From week 9-17, Thielen had 39/463/3, less than half of the first half of the season. From week 1-8 he was the #1 in all formats, from week 9-17 he was 25-29. That is one hell of a drop.

To be honest, I have no idea what happened, and I hope a Vikings fan weighs in. I understand Thielen had a calf injury for some weeks (https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/vikings-adam-thielen-dealing-with-back-calf-injuries/), I also understand the Vikings O-line was pretty horrible, which also helped neither the running game nor Cousins as QB. Still, the chart for the Vikings yardage trends a bit down towards the end of the season, but not like Thielen, who just crashed.

Image result for adam thielen

So the question is, which Thielen will show up in 2019? Actually, I think that his season overall performance (113/1373/9) should be a good indicator for 2019, which was WR7 overall. The owners who had a bad experience with him during the second half of the season (he was borderline playable) may avoid him, which might bring his price down a bit, but consider me interested. 

Full disclosure: I did not own Thielen; I had gambled that on Diggs being the go-to guy, and missed badly, so if I think in 2019 Thielen may be the better gamble, I may well be wrong again.

 

2 hours ago, Zak0221 said:

I drafted Thielan with one of my last picks in the 2017 season and it turned out to be by far my best pick that almost redeemed my mediocre draft.

 

He did the same act that season however fading in the second half after a very strong start even though this year's first half for AT was insane.  I wonder if it was as simple as coverage shifted from double teaming Diggs and letting Thielan have underneath stuff to double team Thielan and just put safety over top of Diggs.

 

Seems somewhere along the lines defenses figured out the Vikes passing game and it hurt Cousins.  I don't really want to invest for next season because they will be at a very high ADP because of where they finished in 2018 and I am on the side of the fence that Diggs is the by far better player who still has room to grow.  This type of season may be the best you will see out of Thielan though I expect him to not be as extreme with his 1st/2nd half splits in 2019.  

 

Going to let someone else deal with him and go in other directions for WR1s however if you somehow land this guy as your WR2 it's very ideal with his fantastically high floor in PPR. 

 

Thielen is a weird one to me. As per your mentions, he has declined in the second halves of both 2017 & 2018. And the declines have specifically been at their worst within the final 5 games of each season...

--2018 first 11 games: 93 catches - 1138 yards - 8 TD (average of 8.4 catches - 103.4 yards)

--2018 final 5 games: 20 catches - 235 yards - 1 TD (average of 4.0 catches - 47.0 yards)

--2017 first 11 games: 70 catches - 1005 yards - 3 TD (average of 6.3 catches - 91.3 yards)

--2017 final 5 games: 21 catches - 271 yards - 1 TD (average of 4.2 catches - 54.2 yards)

 

With declines like that, I took a look at his targets during each period...

--2018 first 11 games: 11.27 targets per game

--2018 final 5 games: 5.80 targets per game

--2017 first 11 games: 9.72 targets per game

--2017 final 5 games: 7.00 targets per game

 

Those are both significant target declines, especially in 2018. Thielen had two different QB's (Keenum & Cousins) during these seasons, and both were healthy without having had backups take their place in the second half or anything. So why would Thielen just stop being targeted by two different QB's, with the big numbers he was putting up? And then add this into the mix...

--2018 first 11 games: 75.0% catch rate

--2018 final 5 games: 69.0% catch rate

--2017 first 11 games: 65.4% catch rate

--2017 final 5 games: 60.0% catch rate

 

So now we see that Thielen's targets dropped AND his catch percentage dropped. Is it a coincidence that the majority of his poorer games came at the late stages of both years? Are defenses wising up as they have more and more film at the late part of the season? Is it related to nagging injuries that allow him to be on the field, but cause him to get less separation and not be open as often...and then when he is thrown the ball, to get to it less often than usual? I do recall him having a back injury as the year progressed in 2017, so along with late-year injuries from this past 2018, perhaps that's a big part of it. Just because one is healthy enough to play, doesn't mean one is healthy enough to play at an elite level. Maybe he just wears down from a 16-game season?

 

I see Thielen as right around the #11 or 12 WR headed into 2019 (at least as of right now). If I do end up with him in any drafts, I'll have in the back of my mind the thought of trading him before the trade deadline, due to the weird way he has closed each of the past two seasons.

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Second half of the year was much closer to what Thielen actually is than the first half IMO. Fortunately for people who want him next year that will be the lasting impression, so I don't see him going terribly early. I'd say right around WR15 would be good value for him.

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Diggs owner here, best explanation is less slot routes run which coincided with Diggs increase in targets. Shorter throws for the dump down queen Cousins and poor offensive line play. 

 

Also relatable to switching of offensive coordinator mid season to Stefanski who was rehired replacing DeFillipo. 

 

Third Zimmer is a conservative ,protect his defense first Head Coach who will want a more run friendly game planning with a healthy Dalvin Cook.  Palying with a lead also diminished the number of targets overall when Vikes got on a run.

 

First glance I would expect more of the 2nd half type usage next with the rehire of Stefanski.looking for Zimmer to institute a run first philosophy. Diggs about the same overall (hopefully another year with Cousins provides a slight uptick) with Thielin fallling somewhere in between first/second half splits. Top 20 ish

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5 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Second half of the year was much closer to what Thielen actually is than the first half IMO. Fortunately for people who want him next year that will be the lasting impression, so I don't see him going terribly early. I'd say right around WR15 would be good value for him.

 

Hes a WR1, so WR15 is very low. 

 

Top-8 is about right, which he has proven over and over again. Another year that he outplayed and outproduced Diggs.

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16 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Hes a WR1, so WR15 is very low. 

 

Top-8 is about right, which he has proven over and over again. Another year that he outplayed and outproduced Diggs.

Let's not get carried way. In 2017 he was WR9, in 2016 WR23 and 2015 >WR100. So let's make that "he was top-10 2 years in a row, and could improve more".

 

Regarding outproducing Diggs, yes, in the first half of the season, but not in the second half of the season.

image.png.248cd15111e5f555da08c7e4e4408b5c.png

I've struggled a bit to visualize it, but I hope you see that:

- week 1-8 Thielen was absolutely amazing; Diggs wasn't bad, but just not at that level.

- week 9 only Thielen played (22 yards)

- game 10-16 (after the bye), Thielen had  35/426/3, and Diggs had 44/434/5. So Diggs was in fact a bit better - again, I don't know if Thielen was just tired, or injured, or this is normal statistical variance.

 

Now I agree that Diggs still hasn't shown full potential (only one 1000+ season so far), but that's for the Diggs thread.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Hes a WR1, so WR15 is very low. 

 

Top-8 is about right, which he has proven over and over again. Another year that he outplayed and outproduced Diggs.

With Baldwin at 7?

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Hes a WR1, so WR15 is very low. 

 

Top-8 is about right, which he has proven over and over again. Another year that he outplayed and outproduced Diggs.

I think if you listed the top 15-20 WRs you may be surprised. I can't find too many I'd take Thielen over. 

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Think hes def a top 10 WR.  But I am worried about what Min passing offense as a whole did second half of season.   Watching their games it seemed like cousins lost his nerve.  Thielen would be open or least have his guy beat by a step and Cousins wouldn't throw to him.  Until they were in complete catch up mode.

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5 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I think if you listed the top 15-20 WRs you may be surprised. I can't find too many I'd take Thielen over. 

 

Who you'd take is not the same as who is better. There aren't 8 WRs better than Theilen right now.

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4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Who you'd take is not the same as who is better. There aren't 8 WRs better than Theilen right now.

Easily Eight

After week 10 Thielin was #26 in our 1.0 PPR format. Several aren't better but i'd put AT @ about #15 talent wise. A few like Golladay, Sutton, Landry, Woods arguably may pass him as thiey hone their craft which puts him around 20. Not so sure he is a lock @ a WR1

 

                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                         
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I think the graph shows that the Vikings and Cousins aren't able to maintain elite WR1 status for either receiver for the full length of the season. When one dominates the other is a WR2. But it ends up evening out to about two WR1 over the entire length of the season.

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Who you'd take is not the same as who is better. There aren't 8 WRs better than Theilen right now.

Hopkins, Adams, Thomas, Julio, AB, OBJ, Hill, Green, Juju, Evans, Allen, Cooper, and Hilton would all be guys I'd take over (and are better than) Thielen. He'd fall into that next category with guys like Cooks, Woods, Diggs.

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14 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Hopkins, Adams, Thomas, Julio, AB, OBJ, Hill, Green, Juju, Evans, Allen, Cooper, and Hilton would all be guys I'd take over (and are better than) Thielen. He'd fall into that next category with guys like Cooks, Woods, Diggs.

 

Green and Allen aren't better than him. Neither are Hilton, Cooper, or Juju.

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14 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

With Baldwin at 7?

 

Not anymore ;)

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WRs better than Theilen each of the past 2 seasons: 

 

AB, Hopkins, MT, Hill. 

 

Very short list. Potential doesn't win fantasy titles.

 

 

 

 

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On 10/1/2019 at 1:04 AM, Zak0221 said:

Thielan

 

21 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

Thielin

 

6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Theilen

giphy.webp

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6 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

WRs better than Theilen each of the past 2 seasons: 

 

AB, Hopkins, MT, Hill. 

 

Very short list. Potential doesn't win fantasy titles.

 

 

 

 

Too bad he disappears at the end of each season. Use him for half than trade him away. 

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AT is DND for me in 2019. 

 

Overpriced and has shown tendency to not be there for you during the most important part of the season - the playoffs. 

 

In my opinion, he's built closer to a rock solid WR2 because of his fantastically high floors in PPR settings.  That's the ideal WR2 for me, a player who you can pencil in 10-16 pts every week with occasional blowups.  For my WR1 I really want a guy that can potentially lead the league in rec yards or rec TDs which AT is likely to do neither.  

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Im a Vikings fan and can't say I am fanatical with verifying all of what Im typing or doing deep dives into what is wrong, so take this for what its worth....

 

Last year I believe AT's drop off had to do with injury (though don't remember exactly when that occurred) and not being challenged in the final few games. I remember the bears and bengals as 2 late season opponents. Zimmer loves to take is foot off the gas on offense and go into a conservative shell whenever he gets the slimmest of leads in order to be able to show his defense can hold it.

 

This year, there were a few things going on. First, the defense sucked to start out, requiring heavy passing. Zimmer of course blamed his D's shortcomings at least partially on the O not running enough. He started throwing the OC under the bus publicly stating we aren't running enough and our O was "too complicated". So he started messing with the offense and applying pressure to the O to change what they were doing. Around the same time, I think teams figured out to have 2 guys devoted to each of Diggs and Thielen and try to have the vikes beat them some other way. Unfortunately, our Oline sucks and is not built for running in any way (one could argue not built for passing either). I think with the aforementioned changes, the OC and Cousins went into a shell and the pressure got to them, especially Cousins. He really is not at all what I expected when he showed up. Also, there was an injury mid-season and I don't know if that ended up lingering.

 

So the point is, I don't think either years drop off has much to do with AT shriveling in the 2nd half of the season and is due to circumstances outside his control.

 

However, going forward, I think Zimmer is going to be meddling heavily in the offense next year in order to protect his defense. He doesn't care if runs are effective or not, he just wants to see a higher number. And unfortunately, there is no creativity to our run game. Runs go left or right, between the G/C or G/T and that is it. No draws, no pitches, no sweeps/outside runs. Nothing getting Cook in space where he excels.

 

Im predicting the offense to look a lot more like the 2nd half of the year next year. Frustrating volatility, lack of creativity and Zimmer micromanaging something he doesn't understand. The good news is I expect them to finally devote some more resources to the offense after realizing Kirk is AR and cannot do it on his own. But as far as WR's I am staying away from Vikes WR's unless they come in that low-mid 20's range, then I might reconsider.

Edited by nromn
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3 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Hopkins, Adams, Thomas, Julio, AB, OBJ, Hill, Green, Juju, Evans, Allen, Cooper, and Hilton would all be guys I'd take over (and are better than) Thielen. He'd fall into that next category with guys like Cooks, Woods, Diggs.

 

I'd take Edelman over him as well.  

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