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Tyler Lockett 2019 Outlook

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Had some great games, won some people their title.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Outscored OBJ in 2018 despite seeing 53 fewer targets. 😳

Depends on your format I would guess?

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/ppr-wr.php?year=2018

 

I see that in PPR/.5 it's more or less the same, but in standard the difference is clear, and you're right. Clearly the yards per target are higher for Tyler - @Gohawks will probably tell you that's because Eli sucks, and Russ doesn't.

 

Edited by Boudewijn

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Depends on your format I would guess?

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/ppr-wr.php?year=2018

 

I see that in PPR/.5 it's more or less the same, but in standard the difference is clear, and you're right. Clearly the yards per target are higher for Tyler - @Gohawks will probably tell you that's because Eli sucks, and Russ doesn't.

 

Well...Yeah. 

 

Wilson has one of the best deep balls in the NFL while Eli couldn’t hit Odell deep. The conclusion that Lockett had Odell level success on way less targets because his QB is way better isn’t some kind of crazy statement.

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His efficiency was off the charts.   Nearly 14 points per game in PPR on just 71 targets stands out big time.     He certainly looks like a difference maker in every Seahawks game I've watched.   That said, i'd like to be confident in a major target increase before I invest the likely borderline WR2 cost in him next year.       I've always been a fan of his, and 2018 was (of course) the one year i didnt snag him somewhere.   Lets hope Schottenheimer opens up a bit. 

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Lockett finally stayed healthy and flashed his potential this year. A model of consistency. Have we seen his ceiling? It's possible. Seattle's low passing volume offensive scheme is not promising for pass catchers, but Lockett sure does know how to make the most of his targets. Baldwin aging. High floor, low ceiling WR2 for 2019.

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9 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

Lockett finally stayed healthy and flashed his potential this year. A model of consistency. Have we seen his ceiling? It's possible. Seattle's low passing volume offensive scheme is not promising for pass catchers, but Lockett sure does know how to make the most of his targets. Baldwin aging. High floor, low ceiling WR2 for 2019.

Couple that with Baldwin being out with injury. (Baldwin hurt or help lockett? seems like baldwin is more of the red zone hog)

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3 things that worry me:

1. Only had 70 Targets last season

2. Is 10 TDs repeatable?

3. Run focused offense

I know Baldwin may retire but can be expect 100+ targets to offset the inevitable decline in efficiency? 

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I only have an interest in Lockett if he is running 80% of his routes from the slot like Baldwin, otherwise that passing offense is too boom or bust for me

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2 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

3 things that worry me:

1. Only had 70 Targets last season

2. Is 10 TDs repeatable?

3. Run focused offense

I know Baldwin may retire but can be expect 100+ targets to offset the inevitable decline in efficiency? 

 

whether baldwin got his high 125 targets (2016) or his low 73 targets (2018), over four years lockett has always averaged 70 targets without fluctuation, so that should mollify your worry #1. but i agree with you, 10 TDs is an unlikely repeat, and the run-first offense worked well and we can expect to see more of carson and penny. carson was great last season.

safe to say, lockett's targets will increase. they must. but i'd suggest we're looking at 80-100 maximum. the seahawks will continue to pound the run, and they'll look to utilize their new toy in metcalf. regarding this 80-100 target projection, lockett was super efficient last season with his 70 targets, increasing his catch rate from previous years by 20% and his yardage from previous years by 40%. while we all saw an improved lockett in 2018, this 81.4% catch rate will most likely decrease to a solid yet realistic 70-72%.

TDs are difficult to predict with reliability, and considering lockett had 1 TD in 2016, 2 TDs in 2017, and then 10 TDs in 2018, predicting 2019 is more of a guess than anything.

so i'm thinking we might see a 2019 looking like this, a conservative / cautious estimate based on 87 targets, 72% catch rate, and the four-year average of 15 yards per catch:

                 63 receptions / 950 yards / 5 TDs

with the exception of the TDs, i like to think this is a floor for lockett.

a less conservative projection might include the top range for targets (100), the exceptional catch rate from 2018 (81%), and the top range for yards per reception from 2018 (17):

                81 receptions / 1377 yards / 10 TDs.

to me, this is too lofty to call a "ceiling" and i expect numbers much closer to the conservative projection. in games where seattle is all-run, lockett could be putting up some serious goose-eggs.

in half-PPR, locket's ADP today is 5.09, and while that's not high, it's not an exceptional bargain, and depending on the first four rounds i'd sooner go with other players at this price: chris godwin, evan engram, kenny golladay, mike williams, lamar miller.

giphy.gif

 

 

 

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Would be cool if, gee idk, he got more than 2 targets a game.

 

atleast he turns that into 2/52/1

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Posted (edited)

Jaron Brown says "put me in coach!" 😂

Edited by dashoe

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36 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Jaron Brown says "put me in coach!" 😂

Pete Carroll says "we have great expectations."

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

whether baldwin got his high 125 targets (2016) or his low 73 targets (2018), over four years lockett has always averaged 70 targets without fluctuation, so that should mollify your worry #1. but i agree with you, 10 TDs is an unlikely repeat, and the run-first offense worked well and we can expect to see more of carson and penny. carson was great last season.

safe to say, lockett's targets will increase. they must. but i'd suggest we're looking at 80-100 maximum. the seahawks will continue to pound the run, and they'll look to utilize their new toy in metcalf. regarding this 80-100 target projection, lockett was super efficient last season with his 70 targets, increasing his catch rate from previous years by 20% and his yardage from previous years by 40%. while we all saw an improved lockett in 2018, this 81.4% catch rate will most likely decrease to a solid yet realistic 70-72%.

TDs are difficult to predict with reliability, and considering lockett had 1 TD in 2016, 2 TDs in 2017, and then 10 TDs in 2018, predicting 2019 is more of a guess than anything.

so i'm thinking we might see a 2019 looking like this, a conservative / cautious estimate based on 87 targets, 72% catch rate, and the four-year average of 15 yards per catch:

                 63 receptions / 950 yards / 5 TDs

with the exception of the TDs, i like to think this is a floor for lockett.

a less conservative projection might include the top range for targets (100), the exceptional catch rate from 2018 (81%), and the top range for yards per reception from 2018 (17):

                81 receptions / 1377 yards / 10 TDs.

to me, this is too lofty to call a "ceiling" and i expect numbers much closer to the conservative projection. in games where seattle is all-run, lockett could be putting up some serious goose-eggs.

in half-PPR, locket's ADP today is 5.09, and while that's not high, it's not an exceptional bargain, and depending on the first four rounds i'd sooner go with other players at this price: chris godwin, evan engram, kenny golladay, mike williams, lamar miller.

giphy.gif

 

 

 

 

Thank you for the thorough response. 

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Posted (edited)

Lockett burnt me in his sophmore season but I'd definitely target him as a wr3 in this draft.  He may be drafted as someone's wr2 so decent chance he's not on my squad.  I think he'll continue to step up, especially with the probable departure of Baldwin, who looked cooked last year.   

Edited by mikeflavaz

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2 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

whether baldwin got his high 125 targets (2016) or his low 73 targets (2018), over four years lockett has always averaged 70 targets without fluctuation, so that should mollify your worry #1. but i agree with you, 10 TDs is an unlikely repeat, and the run-first offense worked well and we can expect to see more of carson and penny. carson was great last season.

safe to say, lockett's targets will increase. they must. but i'd suggest we're looking at 80-100 maximum. the seahawks will continue to pound the run, and they'll look to utilize their new toy in metcalf. regarding this 80-100 target projection, lockett was super efficient last season with his 70 targets, increasing his catch rate from previous years by 20% and his yardage from previous years by 40%. while we all saw an improved lockett in 2018, this 81.4% catch rate will most likely decrease to a solid yet realistic 70-72%.

TDs are difficult to predict with reliability, and considering lockett had 1 TD in 2016, 2 TDs in 2017, and then 10 TDs in 2018, predicting 2019 is more of a guess than anything.

so i'm thinking we might see a 2019 looking like this, a conservative / cautious estimate based on 87 targets, 72% catch rate, and the four-year average of 15 yards per catch:

                 63 receptions / 950 yards / 5 TDs

with the exception of the TDs, i like to think this is a floor for lockett.

a less conservative projection might include the top range for targets (100), the exceptional catch rate from 2018 (81%), and the top range for yards per reception from 2018 (17):

                81 receptions / 1377 yards / 10 TDs.

to me, this is too lofty to call a "ceiling" and i expect numbers much closer to the conservative projection. in games where seattle is all-run, lockett could be putting up some serious goose-eggs.

in half-PPR, locket's ADP today is 5.09, and while that's not high, it's not an exceptional bargain, and depending on the first four rounds i'd sooner go with other players at this price: chris godwin, evan engram, kenny golladay, mike williams, lamar miller.

giphy.gif

 

 

 

 

5.09 is steeper than I thought it would be tbh. I still live him, but not as much as if he was a 7th rounder.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

5.09 is steeper than I thought it would be tbh. I still live him, but not as much as if he was a 7th rounder.

That’ll come down if Baldwin doesn’t retire. It jumped up once that news broke (rightfully so)

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21 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

whether baldwin got his high 125 targets (2016) or his low 73 targets (2018), over four years lockett has always averaged 70 targets without fluctuation, so that should mollify your worry #1. but i agree with you, 10 TDs is an unlikely repeat, and the run-first offense worked well and we can expect to see more of carson and penny. carson was great last season.

safe to say, lockett's targets will increase. they must. but i'd suggest we're looking at 80-100 maximum. the seahawks will continue to pound the run, and they'll look to utilize their new toy in metcalf. regarding this 80-100 target projection, lockett was super efficient last season with his 70 targets, increasing his catch rate from previous years by 20% and his yardage from previous years by 40%. while we all saw an improved lockett in 2018, this 81.4% catch rate will most likely decrease to a solid yet realistic 70-72%.

TDs are difficult to predict with reliability, and considering lockett had 1 TD in 2016, 2 TDs in 2017, and then 10 TDs in 2018, predicting 2019 is more of a guess than anything.

so i'm thinking we might see a 2019 looking like this, a conservative / cautious estimate based on 87 targets, 72% catch rate, and the four-year average of 15 yards per catch:

                 63 receptions / 950 yards / 5 TDs

with the exception of the TDs, i like to think this is a floor for lockett.

a less conservative projection might include the top range for targets (100), the exceptional catch rate from 2018 (81%), and the top range for yards per reception from 2018 (17):

                81 receptions / 1377 yards / 10 TDs.

to me, this is too lofty to call a "ceiling" and i expect numbers much closer to the conservative projection. in games where seattle is all-run, lockett could be putting up some serious goose-eggs.

in half-PPR, locket's ADP today is 5.09, and while that's not high, it's not an exceptional bargain, and depending on the first four rounds i'd sooner go with other players at this price: chris godwin, evan engram, kenny golladay, mike williams, lamar miller.

giphy.gif

 

 

 

Lama milla? Cmon mang

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17 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

That’ll come down if Baldwin doesn’t retire. It jumped up once that news broke (rightfully so)

 

FWIW some other sites are showing a lower ADP. FFC has 6.11. I like him anytime after 6.01 i think. In the 5th there are some better dudes. Edelman and Godwin for me.

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ignore all coach speak. . the  SEA wr who performs the best during scramble drills will be the go to guy for Wilson . . 🤣

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His return yardage drop was concerning for leagues that count that, going from averaging 1100+ to less than 700. He was still a great fantasy asset in that format, but I don't know if I trust him enough to spend another early second round pick on him.

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3 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

FWIW some other sites are showing a lower ADP. FFC has 6.11. I like him anytime after 6.01 i think. In the 5th there are some better dudes. Edelman and Godwin for me.

Hmm that’s a fairly large adp differential. I’d have to wait and see on Baldwin before figuring what round I think he should go. Since Lockett couldn’t get targets last year for some reason (despite Wilson having a close to perfect passer rating when targeting him), Baldwin’s departure would make me feel much about about Lockett’s weekly floor

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