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Tyler Lockett 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

Hmm that’s a fairly large adp differential. I’d have to wait and see on Baldwin before figuring what round I think he should go. Since Lockett couldn’t get targets last year for some reason (despite Wilson having a close to perfect passer rating when targeting him), Baldwin’s departure would make me feel much about about Lockett’s weekly floor

 

baldwin plays out of the slot, Baldwin is in sync with wilsons scrambling , Baldwin is the security blanket , not enough passes to go around in a run heavy offense

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44 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

baldwin plays out of the slot, Baldwin is in sync with wilsons scrambling , Baldwin is the security blanket , not enough passes to go around in a run heavy offense

Agree with all of that, but didn’t baldwin admit he wasn’t 100% and playing injured? Would think that means more targets for others, especially an up and coming guy like Lockett 

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7 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Agree with all of that, but didn’t baldwin admit he wasn’t 100% and playing injured? Would think that means more targets for others, especially an up and coming guy like Lockett 

 

Yea baldwin only had 73 targets and 50 catches. Wilson had 427 attempts and 280 completions. Ya would assume baldwin's presence isnt enough to derail lockett's output. 340 more targets to go around ya think someone producing like lockett would of garnered more attention from Wilson than just 70 targets and 57 catches... 427 passing attempts is on the lower side however (20th in the league) 280 completions is low as well (20th in the league) big ben and luck actually had more completions than Wilson had attempts. 

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20 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Lama milla? Cmon mang

 

not saying he's good, not saying i want him for an RB2

but i do project lamar miller's floor to be more secure than tyler lockett's: lamar miller has the longest 1100-yard streak of any active RB, he's liked by the coaching staff in houston, and foreman is recovering from the most difficult injury an RB can have. 

with that in mind, his touches make miller a great flex for the price, and he's far less likely to put up a goose-egg than tyler lockett --- in that flex position, it's the "zero" points in a week that can guarantee the loss for your team.

that said, i like miller as a trade before mid-season, or after he's had 3 decent weeks. last year, miller had 6 games of 100 yards or more rushing/receiving, and 6 TDs, both great trade fodder.

if you can show me a better value at the round-5-to-round-6 turn, and can contribute with more than, "Lama milla? Cmon mang", shoot.   

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11 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

not saying he's good, not saying i want him for an RB2

but i do project lamar miller's floor to be more secure than tyler lockett's: lamar miller has the longest 1100-yard streak of any active RB, he's liked by the coaching staff in houston, and foreman is recovering from the most difficult injury an RB can have. 

with that in mind, his touches make miller a great flex for the price, and he's far less likely to put up a goose-egg than tyler lockett --- in that flex position, it's the "zero" points in a week that can guarantee the loss for your team.

that said, i like miller as a trade before mid-season, or after he's had 3 decent weeks. last year, miller had 6 games of 100 yards or more rushing/receiving, and 6 TDs, both great trade fodder.

if you can show me a better value at the round-5-to-round-6 turn, and can contribute with more than, "Lama milla? Cmon mang", shoot.   

And that was with a bad O-line. They drafted 2 lineman in the first two rounds so that should only help him.

 

Good bet for another 1200 or so total yards and a handful of TDs.

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9 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

not saying he's good, not saying i want him for an RB2

but i do project lamar miller's floor to be more secure than tyler lockett's: lamar miller has the longest 1100-yard streak of any active RB, he's liked by the coaching staff in houston, and foreman is recovering from the most difficult injury an RB can have. 

with that in mind, his touches make miller a great flex for the price, and he's far less likely to put up a goose-egg than tyler lockett --- in that flex position, it's the "zero" points in a week that can guarantee the loss for your team.

that said, i like miller as a trade before mid-season, or after he's had 3 decent weeks. last year, miller had 6 games of 100 yards or more rushing/receiving, and 6 TDs, both great trade fodder.

if you can show me a better value at the round-5-to-round-6 turn, and can contribute with more than, "Lama milla? Cmon mang", shoot.   

Foreman another yr removed from injury. I’m looking at guys that are not “safe” and that can actually win me a week. I’ll pass on lama’s 11.3 points he might give u in a 1pt ppr lg. In terms of Lockett, I see his stock only rising. I believe Baldwin is done & locketts play is not flukey, Td dependant, maybe but debatable

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Well, it's official, Baldwin is done in SEA.  I am really starting to get bullish on Lockett for 2019.  He should take over the primary slot WR role and he was phenomal in that role last season when Baldwin missed 4 games (I can't find the stats that I saw which back this up - but they are out there and good news for Lockett).  He can win at all levels of the field and should be in line for a career year.  It would be criminal not to get this guy 100+ targets this season.  Lockett's ADP is set to go way up over the course of the summer. 

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But will it go too high?  I've loved him a round or so above where he's been going, but i'll struggle if he's skyrocketing past that.    

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10 minutes ago, BrianM said:

But will it go too high?  I've loved him a round or so above where he's been going, but i'll struggle if he's skyrocketing past that.    

 

I don't see it going higher than I think he will perform fantasy-wise, so I plan to draft him.  There's still a large group of WR that he likely won't leapfrog.

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Hate to see Baldwin go, but im having a hard time seeing who would fill his role other then Lockett. Hes taken major strides since the injury and finally showed the flashes that made the dynasty community fall in love when he was coming out.

965 and 10 TDs last year, with Baldwin missing time. Hard not to see these numbers going up, although TDs are tough to predict.

Fantasypros ADP has him at first pick in the 6th. Feasible to see that climb at least a round with names like Jarvis, Cooper, Edelman, Boyd, Ridley....think i would prefer him over these names.

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29 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Hate to see Baldwin go, but im having a hard time seeing who would fill his role other then Lockett. Hes taken major strides since the injury and finally showed the flashes that made the dynasty community fall in love when he was coming out.

965 and 10 TDs last year, with Baldwin missing time. Hard not to see these numbers going up, although TDs are tough to predict.

Fantasypros ADP has him at first pick in the 6th. Feasible to see that climb at least a round with names like Jarvis, Cooper, Edelman, Boyd, Ridley....think i would prefer him over these names.

 

DK Musclecalf fills ALL roles 💪

Secondary WRs can collect the scraps

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Lockett caught 80pc of targets last year. Not high percentage throws either. 57 rec for 960 yds.   He also got 28pc of targets when Baldwin was out, but only 16pc on the year.   If he meets in the middle at 22pc share he gets 100 targets, 80 recs, at the same YPR it'd be 1350 yds.  Of course he won't keep the same YPR but those extra 30 targets can go a long way.

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12 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

DK Musclecalf fills ALL roles 💪

Secondary WRs can collect the scraps

 

Lol i think the cyborg is a perfect candidate for that role thats been filled by Kearse/Richardson/Moore etc through the years. Only better. Could take some time though

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2 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Hate to see Baldwin go, but im having a hard time seeing who would fill his role other then Lockett. Hes taken major strides since the injury and finally showed the flashes that made the dynasty community fall in love when he was coming out.

965 and 10 TDs last year, with Baldwin missing time. Hard not to see these numbers going up, although TDs are tough to predict.

Fantasypros ADP has him at first pick in the 6th. Feasible to see that climb at least a round with names like Jarvis, Cooper, Edelman, Boyd, Ridley....think i would prefer him over these names.

 

Lockett could be a solid WR1 if he were on another team IMO. He's one of my favorites to watch. 

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So with Baldwin gone, I think 5th round is a fair price for this guy. Especially if I grab a safe wr1 before him. Expecting Lockett to be inconsistent but finish as a wr2 (top 24). The targets up for grabs now and extra slot time should only help him

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13 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Lockett could be a solid WR1 if he were on another team IMO. He's one of my favorites to watch. 

What team exactly? The chiefs? I know the hawks run more than most teams but Wilson is a great qb and Lockett is the clear wr1 on that team. Seems like a good situation for him

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I got Metcalf projected for 155/2750/25 which leaves extremely little wiggle room for Lockett. Should be a solid bye week fill in and have some big games due to Metcalf being triple teamed. 

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

So with Baldwin gone, I think 5th round is a fair price for this guy. Especially if I grab a safe wr1 before him. Expecting Lockett to be inconsistent but finish as a wr2 (top 24). The targets up for grabs now and extra slot time should only help him

 

I think this is dead on.    FFC has his ADP at 6.03 for PPR, and i could even see him climbing in range with the WR's going in the late 4th/early 5th- Woods, Kupp, Ridley at the moment.  I'm comfy with that.   Brandin Cooks is 4.06- that's probably my Lockett ceiling.   

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4 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

I think this is dead on.    FFC has his ADP at 6.03 for PPR, and i could even see him climbing in range with the WR's going in the late 4th/early 5th- Woods, Kupp, Ridley at the moment.  I'm comfy with that.   Brandin Cooks is 4.06- that's probably my Lockett ceiling.   

Up I think the cooks comp (Atleast for production expectations) is spot on too. Cooks does have more threats to his target share than Lockett does though, imo.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Up I think the cooks comp (Atleast for production expectations) is spot on too. Cooks does have more threats to his target share than Lockett does though, imo.

Meh, I'm not much for the Cooks comp given their situations are very different.

The Rams are very consistent with  targets with 510  and 545 the last 2 seasons

The seahawks went from 526 to 400 targets in their run heavy offense  that's a 24% drop in targets and somehow with Baldwin gone I don't see them adding back that extra 126 targets.

Cooks target share was 23% maybe it drops a few percentage points with Kupp back,  lockett was 17%  up from 13% the previous season, maybe it boosts a few percentage points. 

Basically a tale of 2 offenses, one that has a balanced run/pass and the other that is heavy run.

Both guys are explosive players but I lean towards cooks in the more dynamic rams offense where they can move him all over the formation to catch the mismatch and he doesnt have to worry about defenses keying in on stopping him. I like Lockett at his current price but if he gets to Cooks level then I opt for Cooks

 

I'm not sure why everyone assumes Lockett will step in to a ton of extra targets vacated by the slot wr Baldwin.  There is  jaron-Moore-metcalf competing for targets and now  2 rookies competing for the slot jennings+ursua not to mention whichever flavor of TE they use to catch passes

 

Edited by dashoe
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38 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Meh, I'm not much for the Cooks comp given their situations are very different.

The Rams are very consistent with  targets with 510  and 545 the last 2 seasons

The seahawks went from 526 to 400 targets in their run heavy offense  that's a 24% drop in targets and somehow with Baldwin gone I don't see them adding back that extra 126 targets.

Cooks target share was 23% maybe it drops a few percentage points with Kupp back,  lockett was 17%  up from 13% the previous season, maybe it boosts a few percentage points. 

Basically a tale of 2 offenses, one that has a balanced run/pass and the other that is heavy run.

Both guys are explosive players but I lean towards cooks in the more dynamic rams offense where they can move him all over the formation to catch the mismatch and he doesnt have to worry about defenses keying in on stopping him. I like Lockett at his current price but if he gets to Cooks level then I opt for Cooks

 

I'm not sure why everyone assumes Lockett will step in to a ton of extra targets vacated by the slot wr Baldwin.  There is  jaron-Moore-metcalf competing for targets and now  2 rookies competing for the slot jennings+ursua not to mention whichever flavor of TE they use to catch passes

 

I expect similar week over week production between the 2. Their situations, as you said, aren’t really similar. 

 

Also lol at the guys you listed to steal targets from Lockett. Slight chance metcalf takes off I guess but more likely he just looks lost out there. In fact, now that I’m thinking about it more, Lockett will probably see more targets and this have a higher floor than cooks. 

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3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

What team exactly? The chiefs? I know the hawks run more than most teams but Wilson is a great qb and Lockett is the clear wr1 on that team. Seems like a good situation for him

 

A team that doesnt run so much. Maybe he can get there on SEA. Would prefer like 28 other teams is all

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

A team that doesnt run so much. Maybe he can get there on SEA. Would prefer like 28 other teams is all

Really?

Lockett and Wilson have great chemistry and I expect him to switch to the slot.   He’ll be real dangeRUSS there. 

Edited by Impreza178

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