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Tyler Lockett 2019 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

I expect similar week over week production between the 2. Their situations, as you said, aren’t really similar. 

 

Also lol at the guys you listed to steal targets from Lockett. Slight chance metcalf takes off I guess but more likely he just looks lost out there. In fact, now that I’m thinking about it more, Lockett will probably see more targets and this have a higher floor than cooks. 

 

And this is the beauty  and fun of fantasy football everyone has their own opinion on potential outcomes which mostly 90% of the time ends in frustration and  "was almost right"

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Metcalf coming in on day one and getting significant targets would be quite a mountain to climb.  

Lockett/Wilson is a great connection, i dont think that's the reason why Lockett's in a bad place, but imagine him as the clear WR1 on a team that's top 20 in attempts.    He played all 16 games and was 57th in targets last year, that's comical.   He could just be so much more if they opened up the offense, or he was on a team that threw heavily.   Hell, if they even went back to Seattle's offense 3 years ago with Lockett as WR1, he's studly.  

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Metcalf coming in on day one and getting significant targets would be quite a mountain to climb.  

Lockett/Wilson is a great connection, i dont think that's the reason why Lockett's in a bad place, but imagine him as the clear WR1 on a team that's top 20 in attempts.    He played all 16 games and was 57th in targets last year, that's comical.   He could just be so much more if they opened up the offense, or he was on a team that threw heavily.   Hell, if they even went back to Seattle's offense 3 years ago with Lockett as WR1, he's studly.  

the difference in attempts per game last season with SEA #32 and the #20 team SF is 7  and the the #1 team pitt is 17.

Worlds apart. . .😱

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44 minutes ago, dashoe said:

the difference in attempts per game last season with SEA #32 and the #20 team SF is 7  and the the #1 team pitt is 17.

Worlds apart. . .😱

 

When a guy does so much with so few targets like Lockett does, yes, its significant.   Even 2 more targets per game puts him in the top 30 in targets last year.  

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Just now, BrianM said:

 

 

When a guy does so much with so few targets like Lockett does, yes, its significant.   Even 2 more targets per game puts him in the top 30 in targets last year.  

And now the entire offseason to work as Wilson’s primary target....

What makes you think he won’t garner more looks?  

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16 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

And now the entire offseason to work as Wilson’s primary target....

What makes you think he won’t garner more looks?  

 

He will, of course, but if they're still running more than any other team, he's not reaching his true potential, that's all.  

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

the difference in attempts per game last season with SEA #32 and the #20 team SF is 7  and the the #1 team pitt is 17.

Worlds apart. . .😱

7 per game is a lot..that's 112 on the season. 

 

Im not sure if the last sentence was sarcasm or not

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

And now the entire offseason to work as Wilson’s primary target....

What makes you think he won’t garner more looks?  

 

No one predicted that SEA would remove 126 targets from their offense last season which is why I'm not that sunny about Lockett becoming a surefire fantasy stud. Predict at your own risk 👁️

 

 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

7 per game is a lot..that's 112 on the season. 

 

Im not sure if the last sentence was sarcasm or not

 

Which why they were #32 in pass attempts and Wilson and the wr's were not fantasy studs for 2018. Wilson dropped from a top3 to  #10 in one season

Edited by dashoe

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22 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

No one predicted that SEA would remove 126 targets from their offense last season which is why I'm not that sunny about Lockett becoming a surefire fantasy stud. Predict at your own risk 👁️

 

 

Lockett was wr14(.5) last season.   Apparently that’s not enough to earn the coveted title of Dashoe stud.  👀

 

He’s going in the fifth/sixth round currently on FFC.   Pass at your own peril.  

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Lockett was wr14(.5) last season.   Apparently that’s not enough to earn the coveted title of Dashoe stud.  👀

 

He’s going in the fifth/sixth round currently on FFC.   Pass at your own peril.  

 

last season point ranking based on season long average is quite useless to me. I pick wr's based on target volume in ppr , he ranked middle of the pack with 4 targets per game average and in a handful of weeks he had 2 targets but td's bailed him out. . .  so no he would never make my stud list. Granted he was very efficient/productive with his targets but I prefer week to week predictable targets to avoid boom/busts; which is why I always value Edelman over most  because he isnt a wr tho gives u 20pts in 1 week then 7pts the next. his week to week points/targets are consistent and predictable. 

I like lockett at his current adp in the 6th but if he is pushed up to the 4th which is most likely as the season nears, I prefer other options

Edited by dashoe

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5 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

A team that doesnt run so much. Maybe he can get there on SEA. Would prefer like 28 other teams is all

Wow, really? I’d much rather have him on Seattle than a team with stacked wrs that throws more, say like the browns or rams 

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55 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Wow, really? I’d much rather have him on Seattle than a team with stacked wrs that throws more, say like the browns or rams 

an interesting point... right now, lockett is in the mix with these WRs, in order of ADP (half-PPR):

chris godwin (5.01)

jarvis landry

tyler lockett

calvin ridley

tyler boyd

mike williams

alshon jeffery (6.03)

out of this mix, lockett is waaay towards the bottom for me, chiefly because he will be the most inconsistent on the list, especially in run-heavy game scripts (most seahawk games?). last season, lockett's yards per catch jumped up by 40% and his catch rate by 20%, a great increase in efficiency from his previous 3-year average, and i'd suggest this will regress towards his career average in 2019. i'm a baldwin fan, but last year baldwin was a shell of his former self, a decoy when on the field. metcalf and jaron brown and  david moore will not be decoys.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

Wow, really? I’d much rather have him on Seattle than a team with stacked wrs that throws more, say like the browns or rams 

 

Right, but almost all the teams in the league throw more. You just picked the ones with the best WR groups. Id rather him be on a team like the Colts or the Chiefs.

Edited by dmb3684
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On 5/6/2019 at 8:22 PM, dashoe said:

I only have an interest in Lockett if he is running 80% of his routes from the slot like Baldwin, otherwise that passing offense is too boom or bust for me

That would seem logical since Metcalf is a size/speed guy.

I'm not targeting him but if other priorities happen I could do worse than him as my WR2 IMO.  

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1 hour ago, bomont said:

That would seem logical since Metcalf is a size/speed guy.

I'm not targeting him but if other priorities happen I could do worse than him as my WR2 IMO.  

 

Lockett will be a WR1 this year. Book it.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/10/2019 at 8:44 PM, Sack Exchange said:

 i'm a baldwin fan, but last year baldwin was a shell of his former self, a decoy when on the field. metcalf and jaron brown and  david moore will not be decoys.

Again Metcalf is a size/speed guy so you know teams will worry about him deep - but he's a rookie and a history of not producing as his abilities would suggest so I question how much the Seagulls will go to him. Sounds pretty decoyish to me. Can't speak to Moore.

He has a pretty low ceiling, but generally I prefer the top WR on a so-so team, even a run-based one, vs the #2 WR on a pass-heavy team. He's really their only go-to guy now. 

Edited by bomont

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Borderline wr1 again seems likely.  He’s the new Baldwin - while the other 2 vets keep the outside spots warm till DK takes over.  

 

Buying

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10 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Lockett will be a WR1 this year. Book it.

He was WR16 in my league last year. With Baldwin gone I can see him move up at least 4 spots.

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On a per game average, TLockett (who played in all 16 games), graded out as the 25th ranked WR in PPR, on an offense with the lowest pass attempts in the league; which resulted in 70 targets and a 57/965/10 stat line...and now you've got an experienced David Moore in the mix, plus the addition of DK Metcalf. *with Baldwin gone, there are only an additional 73 targets to be had, on this "run first" team.

Whether or not you like TLockett's upside (which I don't), you can't deny there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position.

Who is he going to supplant/jump/leave behind out of: OBJ, Hopkins, Julio, Adams, Thomas, Hill, JuJu, Diggs, Thielen, Evans, Edelman, Keenan, AJ, Cooper, Cooks/Woods/Kupp, Antonio, Hilton, Golladay...that's 20 WRs. Take out a Ram, Hill (possible suspension) and Golladay (he and Lockett were neck 'n' neck), and that still leaves 17 WRs.

Personally, I would not draft Lockett over any of the 20 WRs mentioned above, and if you are claiming Lockett will be a top 12 WR, you are stating just that.

So, out of those 20 WRs named above, what 9 are you drafting Lockett ahead of?

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59 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

He was WR16 in my league last year. With Baldwin gone I can see him move up at least 4 spots.

 

might not be as simple as that, though. consider: he was WR16 in your league last year, but with the same target range as always (70 targets) lockett also experienced a radical growth in efficiency from his previous 3-year average: catch rate up by 20% and yards from these 70 targets up by 40%. steroidal growth.

no chance lockett maintains his 81.5% catch rate and 14 yards / target efficiency. i'd suggest lockett stays in the top 20 even with the regression of efficiency as he's due a share of baldwin's 73 targets, but moving up to WR12 isn't as clear-cut in predicting.

by the way, i listened to the podcast that was posted to RW yesterday and then removed by moderators. didn't learn anything new but it was entertaining enough during my commute.

 

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24 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

On a per game average, TLockett (who played in all 16 games), graded out as the 25th ranked WR in PPR, on an offense with the lowest pass attempts in the league; which resulted in 70 targets and a 57/965/10 stat line...and now you've got an experienced David Moore in the mix, plus the addition of DK Metcalf. *with Baldwin gone, there are only an additional 73 targets to be had, on this "run first" team.

Whether or not you like TLockett's upside (which I don't), you can't deny there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position.

Who is he going to supplant/jump/leave behind out of: OBJ, Hopkins, Julio, Adams, Thomas, Hill, JuJu, Diggs, Thielen, Evans, Edelman, Keenan, AJ, Cooper, Cooks/Woods/Kupp, Antonio, Hilton, Golladay...that's 20 WRs. Take out a Ram, Hill (possible suspension) and Golladay (he and Lockett were neck 'n' neck), and that still leaves 17 WRs.

Personally, I would not draft Lockett over any of the 20 WRs mentioned above, and if you are claiming Lockett will be a top 12 WR, you are stating just that.

So, out of those 20 WRs named above, what 9 are you drafting Lockett ahead of?

That’s the beauty of it.   He’s going to get more targets-  all over the formation.   

Jaron/Moore?   Please.  Those are journeymen you throw to when the matchup is right.    There’s no TE of accomplishment, and DK is an unpolished diamond.   Baldwin is the THE undisputed #1 target for a qb who knows how to extend plays and throws a gorgeous mid/deep pass.   

 

Hes a steal at his current 5.02 ADP (.5).  I’m comfortable paying a fourth without blinking.  

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44 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

On a per game average, TLockett (who played in all 16 games), graded out as the 25th ranked WR in PPR, on an offense with the lowest pass attempts in the league; which resulted in 70 targets and a 57/965/10 stat line...and now you've got an experienced David Moore in the mix, plus the addition of DK Metcalf. *with Baldwin gone, there are only an additional 73 targets to be had, on this "run first" team.

Whether or not you like TLockett's upside (which I don't), you can't deny there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position.

 

 

Baldwin finished WR7 in 2015. Would have had more top 10 finishes but he was always hurt. 

 

 Didnt read the rest.

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Jaron/Moore?   Please.  Those are journeymen you throw to when the matchup is right.  

 

David Moore is entering only his 3rd season, so...nope.

 

11 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Baldwin is the THE undisputed #1 target for a qb who knows how to extend plays and throws a gorgeous mid/deep pass.   

 

I won't grab at the low hanging fruit ^ as I'm fairly certain you meant "Lockett."

 

You quoted my entire OP, yet you've conveniently avoided answering the question in my OP (2 posts below):

6 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Hes a steal at his current 5.02 ADP (.5).  I’m comfortable paying a fourth without blinking.  

 

35 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

Who is he going to supplant/jump/leave behind out of: OBJ, Hopkins, Julio, Adams, Thomas, Hill, JuJu, Diggs, Thielen, Evans, Edelman, Keenan, AJ, Cooper, Cooks/Woods/Kupp, Antonio, Hilton, Golladay...that's 20 WRs. Take out a Ram, Hill (possible suspension) and Golladay (he and Lockett were neck 'n' neck), and that still leaves 17 WRs.

So, out of those 20 WRs named above, what 9 are you drafting Lockett ahead of?

 

???

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