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Tyler Lockett 2019 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Baldwin finished WR7 in 2015. Would have had more top 10 finishes but he was always hurt. 

 

 Didnt read the rest.

 

Is there a relevant point to this post?

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5 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

David Moore is entering only his 3rd season, so...nope.

 

 

I won't grab at the low hanging fruit ^ as I'm fairly certain you meant "Lockett."

 

You quoted my entire OP, yet you've conveniently avoided answering the question in my OP (2 posts below):

 

 

???

Im not going to draft Lockett before any of those guys.   Nor will I have to.    Again—that’s the beauty of it.    He’s cheap comparatively, proven, and has multiple ways of returning value weekly.    Could be a long score— he’s done it— could be a Baldwin 9/90/1 line.    Lockett as your Wr2 is money in the bank.  

David Moore is absolutely a journeyman.   He’ll be lucky to fend off brown and DK for long-  and then he’s gone when contract dictates it.   Being in his third year doesn’t change that.    

 

 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

Is there a relevant point to this post?

 

Yes. You said...

 

Whether or not you like TLockett's upside (which I don't), you can't deny there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position

 

Baldwin has done that, so obviously you are mistaken. 

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24 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Im not going to draft Lockett before any of those guys.   Nor will I have to.    Again—that’s the beauty of it.    He’s cheap comparatively, proven, and has multiple ways of returning value weekly.    Could be a long score— he’s done it— could be a Baldwin 9/90/1 line.    Lockett as your Wr2 is money in the bank.  

 

Got it. VBD. *not willing to take the plunge prior to the top 20ish WRs taken overall but willing to cross your fingers he falls to you, and hope he affords you your projected value, at a discounted and less impactful spot/price...incase he doesn't pan out.

Who on that list of 20 WRs do you see Lockett outproducing?

 

27 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

David Moore is absolutely a journeyman.   He’ll be lucky to fend off brown and DK for long-  and then he’s gone when contract dictates it.   Being in his third year doesn’t change that.    

 

...not making a big stink but it appears we have a disagreement regarding semantics. IMHO (specifically concerning fantasy football), what you've described above would be the definition of "just another guy" or a JAG, not a "journeyman," as a journeyman would equate more to a veteran whose been on multiple teams for a number of years.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

Got it. VBD. *not willing to take the plunge prior to the top 20ish WRs taken overall but willing to cross your fingers he falls to you, and hope he affords you your projected value, at a discounted and less impactful spot/price...incase he doesn't pan out.

Who on that list of 20 WRs do you see Lockett outproducing?

 

 

...not making a big stink but it appears we have a disagreement regarding semantics. IMHO (specifically concerning fantasy football), what you've described above would be the definition of "just another guy" or a JAG, not a "journeyman," as a journeyman would equate more to a veteran whose been on multiple teams for a number of years.

 

“Journeyman in the making” 😁

fair enough?   You don’t actually see elite qualities in Moore...  he’s there until someone better arrives/develops.   

 

Re: Lockett...he will outscore a number of the WRs taken rounds above him.  Dont know which-   but I definitely believe in the guys talent/tape going back to K-State.  

He’s the perfect receiver for the new NFL,  and he’s going to have a major role volume-wise in their offense.   I’m not going to reach rounds ahead to take him...but I’ll go rb/TE if Lockett could be there later.    

Edited by Impreza178
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Yes. You said...

 

Whether or not you like TLockett's upside (which I don't), you can't deny there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position

 

Baldwin has done that, so obviously you are mistaken. 

 

Ahhh ok, you threw me off by bringing up 2015 and a retired Doug Baldwin, in a 2019 Tyler Lockett thread.

I didn't realize an offense from 4 seasons ago was relevant. Or, that Baldwin being a WR1 four seasons ago on 100+ targets allows for some positive spin/impact on Lockett and his 70 targets, while playing on a team with the lowest passing attempts in the league, becoming a WR1 overall.

It's 2019.

Edited by Patrick Bateman
Lose the attitude and trolling or you'll set yourself for a brief stay. Trolling portion deleted.

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1 hour ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

David Moore is entering only his 3rd season, so...nope.

 

 

I won't grab at the low hanging fruit ^ as I'm fairly certain you meant "Lockett."

 

You quoted my entire OP, yet you've conveniently avoided answering the question in my OP (2 posts below):

 

 

???

Well some of those WRs figure to lose some time. The top ranked players every year aren’t guaranteed to be there end of season 

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2 hours ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

Ahhh ok, you threw me off by bringing up 2015 and a retired Doug Baldwin, in a 2019 Tyler Lockett thread.

I didn't realize an offense from 4 seasons ago was relevant. Or, that Baldwin being a WR1 four seasons ago on 100+ targets allows for some positive spin/impact on Lockett and his 70 targets, while playing on a team with the lowest passing attempts in the league, becoming a WR1 overall.

It's 2019. Try to keep up butter cup.

 

 

So you didnt realize that things that disprove your point were relevant? Now you do I guess. 

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Posted (edited)

@dmb3684

You voiced your dissension to the following statement: "Whether or not you like TLockett's upside (which I don't), you can't deny there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position."

Via your reply: "Baldwin finished WR7 in 2015. Would have had more top 10 finishes but he was always hurt."

 

Yet, what happened in 2015 is not relevant. What Baldwin did in 2015 is irrelevant.

Baldwin was a top 12 WR in 2015 based off 100ish targets as the Sea #1 WR. Baldwin is retired. This is 2019. 2015 was 4 seasons ago. Lockett is not Baldwin. Lockett has never received more than 71 targets in a season. Last season, as the Sea #1 WR, Lockett only received 70 targets. This offense has "now" transitioned into the lowest pass attempting team in the league.

 

...but feel free to continue pushing your false equivalency based on what happened in 2015, involving a retired player, and on a different style offense...vs a narrative based on current and factual information.

 

On second thought, you might be onto something...you should totally aim at drafting a TB or MIA running back as your RB1. Back in 2015 Doug Martin and Lamar Miller were both top 12 RBs in PPR :wacko:

 

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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3 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Well some of those WRs figure to lose some time. The top ranked players every year aren’t guaranteed to be there end of season 

 

...wouldn't Lockett fall within the same seasonal variability category you cast over the other WRs :shrug:

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Didnt Baldwin score like 15 tds in that 2015 season? It was something crazy like that.

Locket got a lot of his TDs on deep balls perfectly placed in his lap by wilson. I think DK will probably take a few of those this year.  The vertical route is probably the one thing DK can already do at an elite level in the NFL. 

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7 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

...wouldn't Lockett fall within the same seasonal variability category you cast over the other WRs :shrug:

So your complaining about not getting a WR1 but waiting until the 5th round to take one? People are saying he has a chance as a WR1 but the uncertainty is what puts his price so low. 

 

He has a really high efficiency and now that Baldwin is gone there are more targets/red zone targets to go around. He’s also the most tenured we with Baldwin if I’m not mistaken 

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42 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

So your complaining about not getting a WR1 but waiting until the 5th round to take one?

Not sure what you are referring to? 

My response to your previous post:

4 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Well some of those WRs figure to lose some time. The top ranked players every year aren’t guaranteed to be there end of season 

...was simply to point out the same variable(s) you are using to remove other WRs from possibly being top 12, would impact Lockett in the same manner. So, it’s 6 in 1, half a dozen in the other. *it could discredit Lockett, just as it could another wideout 🤷‍♂️

 

48 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

People are saying he has a chance as a WR1 but the uncertainty is what puts his price so low. 

Which I completely understand, and why I “reacted” in a positive manner to @Impreza178 explanation that they “wouldn’t draft Lockett over those 20 WRs I listed, but would instead employ a VBD technique.”

Where I continue to band the table, is in response to statements like:

“Tyler Lockett is going to be a WR1, book it.”

No explanation. No stats. Nothing. *I feel I have given plenty of talking points supporting my opinion that Lockett will NOT be an overall WR1. 

So, I created a list of 20 WR names, asking said poster(s) to put their proverbial ..... on the table and list their top 11 + Lockett or name the 9 WRs from that list who will NOT be top 12 . Aside from one person :cricket chirps:

 

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1 hour ago, FollowTheLeader said:

@dmb3684

You voiced your dissension to the following statement: "Whether or not you like TLockett's upside (which I don't), you can't deny there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position."

Via your reply: "Baldwin finished WR7 in 2015. Would have had more top 10 finishes but he was always hurt."

 

Yet, what happened in 2015 is not relevant. What Baldwin did in 2015 is irrelevant.

Baldwin was a top 12 WR in 2015 based off 100ish targets as the Sea #1 WR. Baldwin is retired. This is 2019. 2015 was 4 seasons ago. Lockett is not Baldwin. Lockett has never received more than 71 targets in a season. Last season, as the Sea #1 WR, Lockett only received 70 targets. This offense has "now" transitioned into the lowest pass attempting team in the league.

 

...but feel free to continue pushing your false equivalency based on what happened in 2015, involving a retired player, and on a different style offense...vs a narrative based on current and factual information.

 

On second thought, you might be onto something...you should totally aim at drafting a TB or MIA running back as your RB1. Back in 2015 Doug Martin and Lamar Miller were both top 12 RBs in PPR :wacko:

 

 

 

I think he's saying to your "there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position" that there is, as the offense is basically the same as 2015 and their #1 WR had a top 10 finish. Lockett is now the #1 WR, so he could do so. I'm not sure how valid that is or isn't offhand, but I'd guess it's not the most ridiculous assertion ever made here. Of course there are changes and Lockett isn't Baldwin (etc), but I don't think their offense was wholesale different either. 

 

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The biggest threat to Lockett not being a WR1 is injury. If he and Russ play 14+ games together he will be a WR1. It's because both are historically efficient players. 

 

Ever since Lynch fell off a cliff, Russ's WR1 has been a MINIMUM mid WR2. And yes, his WRs score a lot of TDs.

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8 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

The biggest threat to Lockett not being a WR1 is injury. If he and Russ play 14+ games together he will be a WR1. It's because both are historically efficient players. 

 

 

Usually when something is historically good it comes back down to earth a lot the following season but this may be the exception.

I mean no one really expects Eric ebron to score 14 tds on 66 receptions again. It's the same argument to me.

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Yeah 10 TDs isn't happening. His TDs are hard to predict, even more than most.

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Lockett probably gonna be a backend WR1 in my league that gives a few points for return yardage. 

 

Dude's good. He and russ got a thing going. 

 

You don't need to put him ahead of 1 specific player to make him a WR1 because of those 19 guys mentioned not all will be what they're projected to be. 

 

Multiple from that group will deal with injury. How many, how long, how severe... No one knows right now, but we all know it's gonna happen right? 

 

1 or 2 will just fall flat, I see a couple candidates, but I'm not gonna chase that rabbit right now. 

 

Lockett received 70 targets and this team ran more than it's ever ran... Last year. That might be the direction they want to head, but that's not gonna be the reality week in and week out, year in and year out. 

 

DK is 100% JAG right now. I see him making very minimal impact in 2019. This is lockett team today. He stays healthy, he'll probably see 100+ targets and probably be knocking on WR1 door. 

 

Y'all seen russ scramble outside the pocket before? Y'all seen what lockett does on broken plays before? Just realize russ will be looking lockett way on those broken plays. Dude's gonna make hay. 

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16 hours ago, bomont said:

 

I think he's saying to your "there just isn't the volume in this offense to support a top 12 finish overall at the WR position" that there is, as the offense is basically the same as 2015 and their #1 WR had a top 10 finish. Lockett is now the #1 WR, so he could do so. I'm not sure how valid that is or isn't offhand, but I'd guess it's not the most ridiculous assertion ever made here. Of course there are changes and Lockett isn't Baldwin (etc), but I don't think their offense was wholesale different either. 

 

 

Ya it was pretty easy to follow I thought. Thank you.

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My apologies for my OCD/personal angst/soap box getting this thread a bit off kilter.

Re-boot:

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/19_pma_regression_wrs_tes.html

"Prior to the retirement of Doug Baldwin, Lockett was probably the poster child for touchdown regression among receivers in 2019. Even with his expected "promotion" this season to Baldwin's No. 1 role, it still seems like a good bet he won't: 1) reach 10 TDs again in 2019 after scoring a total of 10 over his first three seasons or 2) average one score every 5.7 catches. What does seem clear is that he is on the verge of his first true high-volume season - if "high-volume" exists in this Seattle offense any more. The Seahawks appear very committed to their grind-it-out offense with the occasional deep ball mixed in, so while it may be true Lockett becomes the new Baldwin, projecting him to match the latter's production from 2015-17 is a bit of a stretch.

Lockett is capable of winning at every level, but it seems like a safe assumption he'll at least work out of the slot more often with the plethora of outside receivers Seattle has or added recently. D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and David Moore should all spend more time on the perimeter, so it seems more likely that Lockett will finish with 70-plus catches and/or 1,000-plus yards than 10 or more touchdowns in 2019. And in case anyone considered a more slot-heavy role would help Lockett in the scoring department, consider that only six of his 19 career receiving touchdowns - only two of which were closer than 10 yards - have come in the red zone."

 

In Lockett, I see a low end WR2, high end WR3 who can be had for the appropriate price of a late 4th to 5th RD pick. *if he gets you more, it's gravy, but not something to be relied upon.

I don't see a path to a top 12 finish overall at the WR position in PPR. Even w/ the addition of a few more targets/yards, I see TL continuing close to his high-end WR3 25th overall pts per game pace from 2018 (13.8pts/g), which, due to injuries to other WRs last season, landed him in mid-WR2 range in PPR (#18 overall) . Thus, IF he plays 16g, he'll entrench himself in WR2 territory, as we can assume injuries will occur to other WRs (just as easy as they can Lockett), BUT he still needs a lot of stars to fall from the sky to break into the top 12.

Last year, injuries to other WRs got his 13.8pts/g (25th overall pts/game pace), up to 18th overall but I'm not sure that even the same occurrence could push him into the top 12. In 2018 the top 12 overall WRs averaged at least 16.6pts/g. Unless I am using a personal preference/bias/want, IMHO I can't logically project Lockett to finish ahead of: Julio, OBJ, Adams, Hopkins, Thomas, Theilen and/or Diggs, 1 if not 2-3 Ram WRs, JuJu, Keenan, Tyreek, Edelman (that's ~14), and to a lessor extent Golladay, Hilton, AJG, Cooper (that's ~18) and there's a few other young WRs and bounce back candidates to contend with as well. I understand TL could break into the top 12 due to his output/injuries to other players but I am not willing to project/proclaim a top 12 finish.

Last season in PPR the #1-8 WRs scored between 329pts and 280pts. The #9-12 scored 247pts-261pts. Lockett scored 207. The lowest top 12 overall finish at WR for a per game average was 16.6pts/g, while all others ranged from 17-21.9pts/game. Lockett averaged 13.8pts/game.

We shall see. GL, fellas.

:cheers:

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

My apologies for my OCD/personal angst/soap box getting this thread a bit off kilter.

Re-boot:

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/19_pma_regression_wrs_tes.html

"Prior to the retirement of Doug Baldwin, Lockett was probably the poster child for touchdown regression among receivers in 2019. Even with his expected "promotion" this season to Baldwin's No. 1 role, it still seems like a good bet he won't: 1) reach 10 TDs again in 2019 after scoring a total of 10 over his first three seasons or 2) average one score every 5.7 catches. What does seem clear is that he is on the verge of his first true high-volume season - if "high-volume" exists in this Seattle offense any more. The Seahawks appear very committed to their grind-it-out offense with the occasional deep ball mixed in, so while it may be true Lockett becomes the new Baldwin, projecting him to match the latter's production from 2015-17 is a bit of a stretch.

Lockett is capable of winning at every level, but it seems like a safe assumption he'll at least work out of the slot more often with the plethora of outside receivers Seattle has or added recently. D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and David Moore should all spend more time on the perimeter, so it seems more likely that Lockett will finish with 70-plus catches and/or 1,000-plus yards than 10 or more touchdowns in 2019. And in case anyone considered a more slot-heavy role would help Lockett in the scoring department, consider that only six of his 19 career receiving touchdowns - only two of which were closer than 10 yards - have come in the red zone."

 

In Lockett, I see a low end WR2, high end WR3 who can be had for the appropriate price of a late 4th to 5th RD pick. *if he gets you more, it's gravy, but not something to be relied upon.

I don't see a path to a top 12 finish overall at the WR position in PPR. Even w/ the addition of a few more targets/yards, I see TL continuing close to his high-end WR3 25th overall pts per game pace from 2018 (13.8pts/g), which, due to injuries to other WRs last season, landed him in mid-WR2 range in PPR (#18 overall) . Thus, IF he plays 16g, he'll entrench himself in WR2 territory, as we can assume injuries will occur to other WRs (just as easy as they can Lockett), BUT he still needs a lot of stars to fall from the sky to break into the top 12.

Last year, injuries to other WRs got his 13.8pts/g (25th overall pts/game pace), up to 18th overall but I'm not sure that even the same occurrence could push him into the top 12. In 2018 the top 12 overall WRs averaged at least 16.6pts/g. Unless I am using a personal preference/bias/want, IMHO I can't logically project Lockett to finish ahead of: Julio, OBJ, Adams, Hopkins, Thomas, Theilen and/or Diggs, 1 if not 2-3 Ram WRs, JuJu, Keenan, Tyreek, Edelman (that's ~14), and to a lessor extent Golladay, Hilton, AJG, Cooper (that's ~18) and there's a few other young WRs and bounce back candidates to contend with as well. I understand TL could break into the top 12 due to his output/injuries to other players but I am not willing to project/proclaim a top 12 finish.

Last season in PPR the #1-8 WRs scored between 329pts and 280pts. The #9-12 scored 247pts-261pts. Lockett scored 207. The lowest top 12 overall finish at WR for a per game average was 16.6pts/g, while all others ranged from 17-21.9pts/game. Lockett averaged 13.8pts/game.

We shall see. GL, fellas.

:cheers:

Prob don’t need to tell u what I think of this take- but going to anyway 😁

 

Your source makes some good points...unless...you know....you’ve actually watched Lockett and Wilson play football.   And now we are being fed that a rookie plus 2 JAGS are going to keep him from 1000 yards.   Despite the fact he can “win on all levels” and is taking a large part of Baldwin’s role-  proven successful in this offense.  Maybe more time watching football, less time compiling stats and lists.   

No answers in June-  so we will see amigo.  

 

Edited by Impreza178
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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

Maybe more time watching football, less time compiling stats and lists.   

 

Was this meant as a jab at me or the author of the posted article?

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4 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

Was this meant as a jab at me or the author of the posted article?

 

The source.   What you added is right on.   Guys like Juju, Edelman, Golladay should go before Lockett.    

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On 6/19/2019 at 7:29 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Lockett probably gonna be a backend WR1 in my league that gives a few points for return yardage. 

While I sort of agree because his return yardage has dropped every year, he has been a top WR1 for me in my return yard league the last couple years. (WR2 last year)

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