AF25

German Marquez 2019 Outlook

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What are your thoughts on Marquez? Is his K/9 rate for real or fluke? Went all the way form 8.2 to 10.6. Not really a big K guy in the minors; did he figure something out?

 

His FIP is a bit lower than his ERA; so it means his success was not base off luck and as a matter of fact, he was just a bit unlucky. Lowest HR/9 in his young MLB career in '18.

 

So thoughts?

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19 minutes ago, SportsFan10 said:

Coors factor can be scary but the peripherals checked out OK. Always a risk, just don’t reach for him.

 

I agree. I am also cautiously optimistic.

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Elite fastball and curveball with the added change up last year helped him take that leap.  Beyond his pitches, the guy is just nails.  Goes out there and fights every pitch.  He and Freeland exhibit the exact qualities on the field that Jon Gray lacks. 

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His second half was awesome last year, carried my NL team in pitching for a lot of it. I am thinking we will see more of that this year.  

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I am cautiously optimistic. The Coors thing always makes me nervous. He was terrible in April and June last year before lighting it up July-Sept. I would still be fairly conservative with my projections for him. 

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ya i really like him. i grabbed him at around pick 140 in my one redraft thus far.  that sound about right to you guys?

 

gray from razzball has him as a top 20 SP

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28 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

ya i really like him. i grabbed him at around pick 140 in my one redraft thus far.  that sound about right to you guys?

 

 

great value

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

ya i really like him. i grabbed him at around pick 140 in my one redraft thus far.  that sound about right to you guys?

 

gray from razzball has him as a top 20 SP

 

I believe that is solid value. The big question with him is if he can make an entire season out of that second half. Who are your other pitchers?

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I try to convince myself to draft him but he pitches for the Rockies. Has any starter had sustained success their?  

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17 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I have Marquez as a top 25 SP. If you can somehow get him as your SP3, you're doing pretty well.

 

2nd half era was 2.61 and i dont think it was a coincidence.  he drastically changed his pitch mix.  less 4 seamers and more sinkers,sliders, curves.  

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On 2/1/2019 at 3:00 PM, jfazz23 said:

ya i really like him. i grabbed him at around pick 140 in my one redraft thus far.  that sound about right to you guys?

 

gray from razzball has him as a top 20 SP

 

Great value.....His ADP is 78 in NFBC leagues 

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On 2/1/2019 at 8:16 PM, murraygd13 said:

I try to convince myself to draft him but he pitches for the Rockies. Has any starter had sustained success their?  

 

Peak Ubaldo was pretty good.  

 

Coors factor is already cooked into his ADP.  Even if you have to sit him for a few bad matchups.  You're really paying for the K's

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On 2/1/2019 at 5:16 PM, murraygd13 said:

I try to convince myself to draft him but he pitches for the Rockies. Has any starter had sustained success their?  

 

Sit him in home games against scary offensive teams to avoid the Coors factor.  So that way over the course of the season you can start him in 75% to 80% of his starts and avoid the occasional home blowup.

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He does have a bit extreme home/away split last year overall. However, in his second half, he managed with a 2.07 ERA/1.09 WHIP and a 12.55K/9 in 8 home games including one post season at home against MIL in which he gave up 2 ER in 5 IP and K'd 5. The second half home game stats are actually a bit better that that of on the road; more K/9 and always a full 1 ERA less at home.

 

Is he truly turning the corner? I guess that's the question many of us ask here. But I do agree with a couple posters above, that we should exercise cautious against some big offensive teams at home.

 

Schedule G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Home 16 16 6 6 0 0 - 0 - 89.1 100 49 47 13 31 110 4.74 1.47 .284
Away 17 17 8 5 0 0 - 0 - 106.2 79 41 35 11 26 120 2.95 0.98 .203

 

HOME

IP H R ER BB K HR ERA WHIP
52.1 46 13 12 11 73 5 2.07 1.09

 

AWAY

IP H R ER BB K HR ERA WHIP
57.2 44 23 20 12 69 5 3.12 0.97
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39 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Sit him in home games against scary offensive teams to avoid the Coors factor.  So that way over the course of the season you can start him in 75% to 80% of his starts and avoid the occasional home blowup.

Where he's been getting drafted, there are better options if you plan on benching him for a few starts.  Maybe I made my point poorly, I think he'll be good but just not as good as is draft position.

 

Looks like he's been going in there 20-25th starter off the board.  Id have him more in the 35-40 range.  

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6 hours ago, AF25 said:

He does have a bit extreme home/away split last year overall. However, in his second half, he managed with a 2.07 ERA/1.09 WHIP and a 12.55K/9 in 8 home games including one post season at home against MIL in which he gave up 2 ER in 5 IP and K'd 5. The second half home game stats are actually a bit better that that of on the road; more K/9 and always a full 1 ERA less at home.

 

Is he truly turning the corner? I guess that's the question many of us ask here. But I do agree with a couple posters above, that we should exercise cautious against some big offensive teams at home.

 

Schedule G GS W L SV BS HLD CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Home 16 16 6 6 0 0 - 0 - 89.1 100 49 47 13 31 110 4.74 1.47 .284
Away 17 17 8 5 0 0 - 0 - 106.2 79 41 35 11 26 120 2.95 0.98 .203

 

HOME

IP H R ER BB K HR ERA WHIP
52.1 46 13 12 11 73 5 2.07 1.09

 

AWAY

IP H R ER BB K HR ERA WHIP
57.2 44 23 20 12 69 5 3.12 0.97

 

ya, and its because he changed his pitch mix in the 2nd half.  going away from fastballs at home and throwing more sinkers, sliders, curves....all of which are his plus pitches.

 

he got ahead of counts, had a higher swinging strike rate, and got more soft contact.  all of which are needed to be successful at coors.

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8 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

ya, and its because he changed his pitch mix in the 2nd half.  going away from fastballs at home and throwing more sinkers, sliders, curves....all of which are his plus pitches.

 

he got ahead of counts, had a higher swinging strike rate, and got more soft contact.  all of which are needed to be successful at coors.

 

So you believe his second half success is sustainable? I mean it was definitely crazy when I found out that his second half stats home/away split was in favor of home considering Coors Field is his home.

 

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11 hours ago, AF25 said:

 

So you believe his second half success is sustainable? I mean it was definitely crazy when I found out that his second half stats home/away split was in favor of home considering Coors Field is his home.

 

 

i mean its still coors.  but as mentioned above ubaldo jiminez put a few good seasons together and i think marquez has better stuff

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I actually liked him going into last year as a good guy near the end of my staff, got him for $1 in auction but he was bad early and I dropped him.  He had nearly a 5.00ERA heading into August.  So it was really those last two months that he flipped the script.  His ERA towards the end of June, which is 3 months into the season was 5.50+.

 

* He made 12 starts after Aug 1 - 9 of the 12 he had 9K or more including 6 in double digits. 

* Only 1 of the 12 starts was not a quality start

* Had 110K to 16 walks in those last 9 starts

 

August and September were as good as it gets, those were SP1 numbers, the first 3 months of the year were non-rosterable in your standard sized leagues.  To me right now the price is too high, especially I already have a built in devalue of Rox pitchers to begin with.  I would like seeing him in my P4-5 range and see if Aug and Sept are the real deal.  Obviously wont be able to get him there so my guess is I likely wont see German on my teams. 

 

follow me on twitter @hackerschamp 

Edited by parrothead

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Jiminez has a career walk rate of over 4.0 BB/9.  It was near 4.0 with the Rockies, and his k/9 was around 8.0

 

Marquez  had some of the lowest BB/9 in the minors, and so far in the majors is hovering around 2.6.  In the second half of 2018, his BB/9 was under 2.0 (about what he did in the minors.) Yes small sample sizes, but one thing we have to take into account is Marquez rarely walks batters, and in doing so will greatly limit his damage.

 

You mix in a guy who can really start missing bats with also a very small walk rate...sign me up.

 

If he can give you:

K/9 of 9.1

BB/9 of 2.1

HR/9 of 1.1

 

That is a 3.5 ERA, 1.16 WHIP type of player.   That is basically Tanaka, with more upside.

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3 hours ago, parrothead said:

I actually liked him going into last year as a good guy near the end of my staff, got him for $1 in auction but he was bad early and I dropped him.  He had nearly a 5.00ERA heading into August.  So it was really those last two months that he flipped the script.  His ERA towards the end of June, which is 3 months into the season was 5.50+.

 

* He made 12 starts after Aug 1 - 9 of the 12 he had 9K or more including 6 in double digits. 

* Only 1 of the 12 starts was not a quality start

* Had 110K to 16 walks in those last 9 starts

 

August and September were as good as it gets, those were SP1 numbers, the first 3 months of the year were non-rosterable in your standard sized leagues.  To me right now the price is too high, especially I already have a built in devalue of Rox pitchers to begin with.  I would like seeing him in my P4-5 range and see if Aug and Sept are the real deal.  Obviously wont be able to get him there so my guess is I likely wont see German on my teams. 

 

follow me on twitter @hackerschamp 

 

Not really. It started on June 30. That final start in June plus July, Marquez had one bad start among five GS, and in 32.2 IP he was 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 36 K, 6 BB. The one bad start was @Arizona. 

 

He entered that last start in June with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. From my perspective, the script flipped there and just got better in Aug-Sept. 

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Really flipping back and forth on this guy. Idk if I'm ballsy enough to take him where he's going. Though I suppose I draft bust pitchers each year, and manage to limit the damage. I imagine you're more likely to take a shot on him if he's your SP3+. I'd be scared to have him as my SP2

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