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Nolan Arenado 2019 Outlook

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Now 6 seasons into his pro career, Arenado is averaging 34 HR 97 R 114 RBI 291/346/530 AVG/OBP/SLG along with 15.5 K% & 7.7 BB%.  He struggled down the stretch last year, but hard to deny him as one of the most consistent top tier fantasy assets.  

 

With him likely departing CO in free agency after this season, is this the last year to enjoy monster numbers?  Will he keep it up if he goes somewhere like LA?  How does the chance of him being dealt midseason impact his value?  

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I think the Rockies will be good again, so I don't foresee him getting dealt. 

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9 hours ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

How would you rank him if doing a keeper draft this year not knowing if he will stay in Colorado? 

idk exactly where he'd go (5-10?) but most likely to high for me. Just looked at his past 4 season splits...I had no idea how much Coors helped this guy. It's VERY alarming if he doesn't stay in COL.

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I think if Colorado ends up out of the race and feels they have no shot to resign him they may just have to trade him to maximize value.  Those picks for losing players with a qualifying offer aren't as good as they used to be.  I could see him ending up on a team such as the Yankees for the second half of the season.  Could also be why they are currently surprisingly luke-warm on the Manny Machado front.  They could be thinking about a run at Arenado in 2020.

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[Lengthy Machado / "character" derail removed.  This is the Nolan Arenado 2019 Outlook thread.]

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Edited by kwelch

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This Rockies fan is as happy as humanly possible, we locked up our boy!!

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Interesting on the year 3 opt out, with all these guys singing these deal (nola sevy etc) and guys wanting opt outs after 3 years etc one wonders if the players know this new CBA might be tricky

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31 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

Interesting on the year 3 opt out, with all these guys singing these deal (nola sevy etc) and guys wanting opt outs after 3 years etc one wonders if the players know this new CBA might be tricky

I just dont see why teams have a huge problem with it.  If youre commited to giving a player 7-10 years knowing hes going to be poop at the end of it, why not give him a chance to sign somewhere else after he's given you 3 years where he's done well enough to be confident he can do better.

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36 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

Interesting on the year 3 opt out, with all these guys singing these deal (nola sevy etc) and guys wanting opt outs after 3 years etc one wonders if the players know this new CBA might be tricky

I wonder if it has to do with this:

 

https://adage.com/article/media/fox-ups-righ/315636/

 

The current deal expires at end of 2021 season and there’s suppose to be a potential 30% increase in tv revenue.  I wonder if mlb will do what NBA did during last CBA and make teams spend this new revenue source to try and help competitive balance.  

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2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I wonder if it has to do with this:

 

https://adage.com/article/media/fox-ups-righ/315636/

 

The current deal expires at end of 2021 season and there’s suppose to be a potential 30% increase in tv revenue.  I wonder if mlb will do what NBA did during last CBA and make teams spend this new revenue source to try and help competitive balance.  

Salary floor

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36 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I wonder if Arenado cost himself a chance at the hall with this signing. Rockies players are pretty much banned.

 

Imo 6 gold gloves in 6 years is a hall of fame pace if it continues, the offense is a added bonus.

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1 hour ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I wonder if Arenado cost himself a chance at the hall with this signing. Rockies players are pretty much banned.

Nope, he didn't.

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1 hour ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I wonder if Arenado cost himself a chance at the hall with this signing. Rockies players are pretty much banned.

Larry Walker is trending up, he could get in next ballot.  Outside of that as a mid 90s expansion team in midst of roid era they haven’t had a ton of longevity in terms of stars have a chance come through to become HOF worthy.

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Well glad he got his money.  I didn't think it'd happen

Edited by daynlokki

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6 hours ago, kwelch said:

 

 

I'm reading this now:Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado is finalizing an eight-year, $260 million contract extension that includes an opt-out clause after three years and a full no-trade clause. The contract replaces the one-year, $26 million deal that he was awarded in arbitration this season. The agreement will give Arenado the highest annual salary of any position player at $32.5 million. 

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3 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I wonder if Arenado cost himself a chance at the hall with this signing. Rockies players are pretty much banned.

Which Rockies players are banned from the hall? Which ones were as good as Arenado has been through 6 seasons?

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2 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I wonder if Arenado cost himself a chance at the hall with this signing. Rockies players are pretty much banned.

So much of his value is on defense and he gets a lot of attention for it because he is that good. I think he is the rare Rockies player that gets a lot of attention for his value outside of HRs. He should not have an issue getting into the HOF if he continues to play at this level. He probably needs to push the Rockies into one deep playoffs run to secure it though. 

 

5 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I wonder if it has to do with this:

 

https://adage.com/article/media/fox-ups-righ/315636/

 

The current deal expires at end of 2021 season and there’s suppose to be a potential 30% increase in tv revenue.  I wonder if mlb will do what NBA did during last CBA and make teams spend this new revenue source to try and help competitive balance.  

It is incredibly difficult to draw comparisons to the NBA unless there are massive, radical, seismic shifts in player control. The NBA locks in rookies and if they develop they basically get paid with their first contract after the rookie deal. If they are massive superstars they get paid again with a contract that locks in their on court performance primes and then a little bit of their decline. NBA players are said to hit their peak performance (not necessarily peak stats, just peak understanding and abilities on the court) when they are 28/29. This is under the current system so don't comp CP3, etc. This is for the crew coming up like the Jokic, Greek, etc. group. So the NBA essentially allows players to get paid when they start balling and if they are elite they get paid twice. And getting paid is max money, which is substantial. By the age 23ish season they are getting paid if they are legit. 

Contrast that to the MLB and arbitration, super 2 and the shenanigans with when you start a player's clock and it is not comparable to the NBA because the owners have a lock down on control when a player starts balling. The NBA may not allow you to change teams with RFA, but they let you get paid. The MLB doesn't allow either. Gerrit Cole is 28, had a monster age 27 season, and is earning less than half of what he would get on a 1 year contract in an open market this season. I would actually argue he is making about 1/3 of what he would make if he was down to sign a one year contract on the open market for this year. Owners have finally gotten smart about not paying for a player's downside. Owners also leverage their control to buy out a year or two of free agency, often leaving players on the cusp of their downside when they are looking to get paid. Until players can get free and paid in their mid 20's when they are balling they have no shot to reverse the owners getting smart about paying for their downside years. Control is the issue for the players. Nothing else. Until they fix the controlled years nothing of substance will change. I am not saying it is right or fair and I completely understand the difference in player development and timeline and blah blah blah between the NBA and MLB. 

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Contract, ease of mind, age, surrounding team, not out of the question he is +10-15% on all numbers this year IMO. Could be a monster!!

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