Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Howard had a decent rookie season, and then showed progress in his sophomore season. TE is a tough position for youngsters to come in and star from the get-go. Most show progress over time, and I'm wondering if Howard is showing that same progression. 

 

He had a couple of duds last year, but he averaged 10.35 ppg in 1/2 PPR through 10 games. If he had played 16 games, he would have been the 5th-ranked TE in 1/2 PPR. He was on a 16-game pace to produce 54-904-8 and has produced an impressive 16.6 ypr in each of his first two years. I'm honestly now sure how Arians' TEs do, but I have to think that he's going to use a weapon like Howard liberally. 

 

The landscape of TEs was pretty dreadful in 2018, but I think young guys like Howard will have the position looking up in 2019. Even with the expected growth of Godwin opposite the studliness of Evans, I still like Howard to be a 60-900-10 TE next season...IF he can stay healthy. He's already missed 8 games in his first two seasons. 

 

Thoughts on him in 2019? 

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He should be good. We’re gonna have to hear a lot about how people think he won’t do much because of Arians’ TE track record, but that’s complete nonsense because Arians is a great coach and isn’t going to ignore his best players (of which Howard most certainly is). He’s in the hunt to be the #4 TE off the board for me.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

He should be good. We’re gonna have to hear a lot about how people think he won’t do much because of Arians’ TE track record, but that’s complete nonsense because Arians is a great coach and isn’t going to ignore his best players (of which Howard most certainly is). He’s in the hunt to be the #4 TE off the board for me.

 

 

He's pretty clearly in that four slot for me right now, and it's not even really a tough decision to make. Kelce is the no-brainer TE1. Then either Ertz or Kittle at 2/3. Then Howard. He's almost in a tier by himself IMO after the "Big 3". Closer to them than anyone you would argue is next. Gronk? Ebron? Cook? Engram? Etc. No thanks. OJ is special and could finish ahead of someone in the consensus top 3 (even without injuries) and it wouldn't surprise me.

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He's worth keeping next year at the right price. I'm def not targeting early because he can't stay healthy but he's a high-reward pick esp w/Arians in the fold.

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Bruce Arians does not use TEs in his offenses.

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15 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Bruce Arians does not use TEs in his offenses.

 

This is complete misinformation. Heath Miller was productive during Arians' tenure as offensive coordinator for the Steelers, when Arians was offensive coordinator/interim head coach for the Colts Coby Fleener was a scrub rookie and Arians never had a legitimate TE during his tenure as head coach for Cardinals (Larry Fitz was a target hog as the only legitimate possession/middle of the field receiver). Good coaches like Arians play to the strengths of their team and he has never had a TE in his coaching career the caliber of OJ. Howard is going to beast as long as his health cooperates.

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Let’s hope Bruce has moved on from this mindset in 2015: ““We pay Larry (Fitzgerald) and those guys too much money to throw it to the tight ends. They’re here to block.”

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Bruce Arians does not use TEs in his offenses.

Well, that’s that then, I guess. Might as well just lock the thread now and save us all a lot of time and effort. 🤣

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

Let’s hope Bruce has moved on from this mindset in 2015: ““We pay Larry (Fitzgerald) and those guys too much money to throw it to the tight ends. They’re here to block.”

2015 Arizona Cardinals TEs: Darren Fells, Jermaine Gresham, Troy Niklas. 

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3 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

2015 Arizona Cardinals TEs: Darren Fells, Jermaine Gresham, Troy Niklas. 

Right.  I don’t know off-hand what O.J. is making these days, but it’s probably less than those vets.

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Just now, BMcP said:

Right.  I don’t know off-hand what O.J. is making these days, but it’s probably less than those vets.

Are you taking that 2015 Arians quote literally? That he utilizes his offensive talent based not on ability and production, but rather on how much they get paid?

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Just now, Lamont Sanford said:

Are you taking that 2015 Arians quote literally? That he utilizes his offensive talent based not on ability and production, but rather on how much they get paid?

I’m just saying that’s what he said - it doesn’t really matter how I take it, personally, to be totally honest with you.

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’m just saying that’s what he said - it doesn’t really matter how I take it, personally, to be totally honest with you.

Fair enough.

To me it sounded like Arians tactfully anawering a question about why his TEs weren’t targeted more. Instead of saying they simply weren’t good enough to bother throwing to, he made a joke of it and complimented their strengths- blocking. It was actually a great answer imo, but not necessarily a glimpse into his offensive philosophy.

Are we supposed to believe that if Arians took over the Chiefs head coaching position that Travis Kelce would become an afterthought? Or in Philly he would ignore Zach Ertz? I understand OJH isn’t on their level yet, but he appears to have the ability and potential to get there. 

But for the sake of the discussion, let’s suppose that Arians for some bizarre reason intentionally ignores his TEs regardless of ability and production simply because they’re they’re TEs. Wouldn’t that make OJH a great trade piece? I’m sure NE would love OJH. Why let a talent like that go to waste when TB could get something significant in return for him? 

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You may be right - it’s anyone’s guess.  I suppose it would make a ton of sense to trade him if you planned to use him mainly as a blocker.

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18 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

This is complete misinformation. Heath Miller was productive during Arians' tenure as offensive coordinator for the Steelers, when Arians was offensive coordinator/interim head coach for the Colts Coby Fleener was a scrub rookie and Arians never had a legitimate TE during his tenure as head coach for Cardinals (Larry Fitz was a target hog as the only legitimate possession/middle of the field receiver). Good coaches like Arians play to the strengths of their team and he has never had a TE in his coaching career the caliber of OJ. Howard is going to beast as long as his health cooperates.

Congrats, you made me do work.  I am usually a "type the first take that jumps into my head" type of poster.

Bruce Arians was the offensive coordinator for Pittsburgh from 2007-2011.  During those years, Heath Miller averaged 602.4 receiving yards and 4 TDs per season.

And, while Arians was head coach at Arizona, where we can infer that Arians's thinking as a football mind evolved, and his control over personnel packages and gameflow were greater, the TEs did far, far worse.

So I will say it again.  Bruce Arians does not use TEs in his offenses.  I love OJ Howard as a player during those rare times that he is healthy, but I am going to aim much higher than 600 yards and 4 TDs for my fake foosball TE.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Bruce Arians was the offensive coordinator for Pittsburgh from 2007-2011.  During those years, Heath Miller averaged 602.4 receiving yards and 4 TDs per season.

And, while Arians was head coach at Arizona, where we can infer that Arians's thinking as a football mind evolved, and his control over personnel packages and gameflow were greater, the TEs did far, far worse.

So I will say it again.  Bruce Arians does not use TEs in his offenses.  I love OJ Howard as a player during those rare times that he is healthy, but I am going to aim much higher than 600 yards and 4 TDs for my fake foosball TE.

 Is it really all that wise to use Heath Miller’s numbers from 2007-2011 in determining what to expect from OJ Howard in 2019? 

Even Arians’ TE usage during his time at Arizona from 2013-2017 is still not a great predictor. When he took over in Arizona in 2013, NFL offenses looked much different than they do today. Arians built his Arizona offense relative to what was going on in the NFL in 2013, and with the personnel he had at his disposal.

If Bruce Arians is truly the offensive genius people seem to think he is, it would be logical to assume he will once again build his offense relative to what is going on in today’s NFL, and make the best use of the personnel he has at his disposal now. That would mean a lot of passing, and exploiting the undeniable mismatches OJ Howard creates. A smart offensive mind doesn’t overlook a player like Howard, he finds a way to incorporate him. 

 

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How Bruce Arians Reacted Seeing O.J. Howard for the First Time

“Licht talking about when Arians first saw tight end O.J. Howard in person. Apparently, Howard was rehabbing on the field of the facility on one of Arians’ first days in the office. Licht pointed Howard out to Arians and when he did, Arians’ eyes ‘went like this’ as Licht widened his own eyes, mimicking Arians.”

https://www.buccaneers.com/news/crew-love-from-gmfb-about-bruce-arians-jameis-winston-combo-and-how-ba-reacted-s

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Arians was coaching in the NFL in 2017.  That's not exactly ancient history.  And he made minimal use of TEs then.

I agree that Arians SHOULD feature O.J. Howard in his offense, but Arians's track record tells me he won't.

All these offseason fluff pieces are useless coachspeak.  What do you expect Arians to say?  "Howard will mostly be a blocker for us this year."  He's not going to say that, even though it is probably true.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Congrats, you made me do work.  I am usually a "type the first take that jumps into my head" type of poster.

Bruce Arians was the offensive coordinator for Pittsburgh from 2007-2011.  During those years, Heath Miller averaged 602.4 receiving yards and 4 TDs per season.

And, while Arians was head coach at Arizona, where we can infer that Arians's thinking as a football mind evolved, and his control over personnel packages and gameflow were greater, the TEs did far, far worse.

So I will say it again.  Bruce Arians does not use TEs in his offenses.  I love OJ Howard as a player during those rare times that he is healthy, but I am going to aim much higher than 600 yards and 4 TDs for my fake foosball TE.

 

If you think that a healthy OJ Howard will finish the year with 600 yards and 4 TD's then you should find a new game to play because fantasy football ain't for you. Can't wait to revisit this thread.

Edited by paulwall29
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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Arians was coaching in the NFL in 2017.  That's not exactly ancient history.  And he made minimal use of TEs then.

I agree that Arians SHOULD feature O.J. Howard in his offense, but Arians's track record tells me he won't.

All these offseason fluff pieces are useless coachspeak.  What do you expect Arians to say?  "Howard will mostly be a blocker for us this year."  He's not going to say that, even though it is probably true.

 

i'd suggest oj howard's success has more to do with winston's gameplay than arian's underutilization. we've seen how winston favors the position, but we've also seen some poor decisions on his part. jury is out on jameis for 2019.

also, one of the key quotes from @Lamont Sanford 's article above is, "if you have the personnel, a do-it-all Heath Miller-type ‘Y’ player, you use him," with the "do it all" implying that he's receiving as well as blocking. simply put, oj howard may be a solid blocker, but he's too fast for a big man, so he's a must to "do it all." oj is 6'6" 250lbs and he's running the forty at 4.51, faster than the average safety (4.54).

 

h2kxnynearhw1lagvj8e

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

i'd suggest oj howard's success has more to do with winston's gameplay than arian's underutilization. we've seen how winston favors the position, but we've also seen some poor decisions on his part. jury is out on jameis for 2019.

also, one of the key quotes from @Lamont Sanford 's article above is, "if you have the personnel, a do-it-all Heath Miller-type ‘Y’ player, you use him," with the "do it all" implying that he's receiving as well as blocking. simply put, oj howard may be a solid blocker, but he's too fast for a big man, so he's a must to "do it all." oj is 6'6" 250lbs and he's running the forty at 4.51, faster than the average safety (4.54).

 

h2kxnynearhw1lagvj8e

 

 

 

Nice take. I'd highlight your point about Winston and suggest that is the biggest factor 

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We all know what Jameis Winston is going to do.  He's going to throw the ball to his besty.  Mr. Cameron Brate.

Don't get me wrong, I love OJ Howard.  What a talent!  If only they would trade him to the New England Patriots...

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5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

We all know what Jameis Winston is going to do.  He's going to throw the ball to his besty.  Mr. Cameron Brate.

Don't get me wrong, I love OJ Howard.  What a talent!  If only they would trade him to the New England Patriots...

 

I've seen all the back and forth so far and I kind of have to agree with SharkSwimmer here.  If Howard's ADP were lower, then for sure, worth the risk that his talent wins over Arian's poor TE usage.  However, OJ currently the 5th TE off the board (mid-5th round).  Too much risk for me there with Arian's history of TE production + Winston having a strong connection with Brate. 

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