Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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5 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

PFF’s grading may not automatically equate to fantasy success, but it’s far more useful in determining a players ability and production than 99% of the posts on this forum. 

For example, PFF’s report that:

“In the 2018 regular season, yes, Howard outgraded Kelce: 89.4 to 88.6 overall.

Howard averaged more yards per rec., more YAC/rec., had a higher first-down + TD reception % and plus grades in passprotection & run blocking.”
 
is far more relevant, insightful, and useful analysis than SharkSwimmer saying “Howard finished as the 14th TE in 2018.”
 

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

Mark Twain

First, I never said OJ was the 14th TE in 2018.  Someone said he finished top 5, and I posited, correctly, that the statement was incorrect.

Second, if a TE is lightly used but hits on a few big plays, his TD% and YAC are going to look better.  So?  I want to select a TE who will be heavily used so he can have a breakout season.  110 plus targets.  It seems quite unlikely to me that OJ Howard will get even close to that many.  Once every three or four games will he break off a long TD?  Probably.  Good luck predicting those.

If Hunter Henry were on the Bucs under Arians, I promise you I would be throwing exactly the same shade on Henry.  I just really don't think it is a favorable situation for a TE to be in.

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30 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

Mark Twain

First, I never said OJ was the 14th TE in 2018.  Someone said he finished top 5, and I posited, correctly, that the statement was incorrect.

Second, if a TE is lightly used but hits on a few big plays, his TD% and YAC are going to look better.  So?  I want to select a TE who will be heavily used so he can have a breakout season.  110 plus targets.  It seems quite unlikely to me that OJ Howard will get even close to that many.  Once every three or four games will he break off a long TD?  Probably.  Good luck predicting those.

If Hunter Henry were on the Bucs under Arians, I promise you I would be throwing exactly the same shade on Henry.  I just really don't think it is a favorable situation for a TE to be in.

1.  I said Howard was a top 5 TE, not that he "finished" as one.  Ppg is much more important than the final standings when they all play a different # of games.

 

2.  Exactly 4 TE's received 110+ targets last season.  If that's your threshold then you better be drafting a TE in the first 3 rounds.

 

3.  What makes you think Hunter Henry gets more targets than OJ Howard?

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Kind of feels like people are just reiterating their own position on Howard over and over at this point.

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36 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

Mark Twain

First, I never said OJ was the 14th TE in 2018.  Someone said he finished top 5, and I posited, correctly, that the statement was incorrect.

Second, if a TE is lightly used but hits on a few big plays, his TD% and YAC are going to look better.  So?  I want to select a TE who will be heavily used so he can have a breakout season.  110 plus targets.  It seems quite unlikely to me that OJ Howard will get even close to that many.  Once every three or four games will he break off a long TD?  Probably.  Good luck predicting those.

If Hunter Henry were on the Bucs under Arians, I promise you I would be throwing exactly the same shade on Henry.  I just really don't think it is a favorable situation for a TE to be in.

You can only pick Kittle/Kelce or ertz 

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40 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

Mark Twain

First, I never said OJ was the 14th TE in 2018.  Someone said he finished top 5, and I posited, correctly, that the statement was incorrect.

Second, if a TE is lightly used but hits on a few big plays, his TD% and YAC are going to look better.  So?  I want to select a TE who will be heavily used so he can have a breakout season.  110 plus targets.  It seems quite unlikely to me that OJ Howard will get even close to that many.  Once every three or four games will he break off a long TD?  Probably.  Good luck predicting those.

If Hunter Henry were on the Bucs under Arians, I promise you I would be throwing exactly the same shade on Henry.  I just really don't think it is a favorable situation for a TE to be in.

My apologies if I misquoted you. I saw something mentioned about him finishing 14th and assumed it was you because of your white-hot hatred for OJ Howard and his birth parents.

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9 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

My apologies if I misquoted you. I saw something mentioned about him finishing 14th and assumed it was you because of your white-hot hatred for OJ Howard and his birth parents.

That would be @BMcP

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

You can only pick Kittle/Kelce or ertz 

Wrong.  I want to find the NEXT emerging star at TE.  I have selected all those TEs you listed in previous years, but I did so before they were household names.  So who is the next big thing?  Howard definitely has the talent to do it, if not the situation.  I am pretty sure I am going to pick a TE later than Howard is typically going in 2019 drafts, and I am planning on getting more production from my selection.  

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

My apologies if I misquoted you. I saw something mentioned about him finishing 14th and assumed it was you because of your white-hot hatred for OJ Howard and his birth parents.

Good one Lamont.  As I have stated many times, I strongly believe that Howard is a talented guy.  And I suspect he will do a lot of irl good things to help the Bucs win games in 2019.  I just don't think he will get enough targets to be a consistent fantasy option in light of Arians's historical TE usage patterns.

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10 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Wrong.  I want to find the NEXT emerging star at TE.  I have selected all those TEs you listed in previous years, but I did so before they were household names.  So who is the next big thing?  Howard definitely has the talent to do it, if not the situation.  I am pretty sure I am going to pick a TE later than Howard is typically going in 2019 drafts, and I am planning on getting more production from my selection.  

I'll take that bet. Who are you targeting?

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Hunter Henry and Evan Engram are two guys I have been looking at.  I am going to need more information, though.  Namely, reports from OTAs, the NFL draft, training camp, preseason, etc.  And, all of that could still cause me to change my mind about OJ Howard, but offseason puff pieces and optimistic coachspeak noises will not be enough to do the trick.

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Hunter Henry and Evan Engram are two guys I have been looking at.

I mean, you aren't exactly discovering new talent with the next 2 ranked TE's in ADP.  Both of whom have already broke out.

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6 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I mean, you aren't exactly discovering new talent with the next 2 ranked TE's in ADP.  Both of whom have already broke out.

But I bet they will both be quite a bit cheaper than OJ Howard.  Also you deleted the part where I said I would need to carefully observe the entire remaining offseason process before making my final decisions on who I think will break out at TE in 2019.

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19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

But I bet they will both be quite a bit cheaper than OJ Howard.

They aren't though.  Engram goes 4 spots later than Howard and Henry goes 11 spots later.  (.5 ppr)

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

That would be @BMcP

I thought he finished 14th in .5 PPR last year - in any event, he finished far from the top 5.

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14 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

They aren't though.  Engram goes 4 spots later than Howard and Henry goes 11 spots later.  (.5 ppr)

If those guys are being picked that high, there may be other bargain bin TEs who will start to grow on me from now until draft day.

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3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

That would be @BMcP

 

It's always @BMCP fault isn't it?

That guy is always in the middle of a  forum fracas. . 🤣

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

I thought he finished 14th in .5 PPR last year - in any event, he finished far from the top 5.

 

He finished 11th in 0.5 PPR and 6th in PPG. Thats pretty close to top 5.

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14 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Thankfully OJ has one of the best situations in the NFL. He has an excellent offensive coach with a track record of monster fantasy production. He is on an offense chalk full of weapons that will consistently move the ball and put points on the board. He is on a team with a terrible defense that will likely be mediocre even if the improve tenfold. He has a QB who targets him and all TEs more than average and is capable of putting up huge passing totals. It really doesn’t get much better.

The naysayers are truly overthinking it and look very reminiscent of the anti-Kelce posters from last year.

 

Last year? Kelce has been the primary pass catcher on the chiefs the last 3yrs. .  . if there were naysayers in 2018  I'm not sure they could have been saying much 😂

I'm out on Howard until TC starts. Too soon to get giddy on him. Happens every year with TE's everyone trying to get the next Gronk/kelce. 

TE is tough to call because if the team can't run the ball or there are injuries on the o-line they usually will reduce the passing routes to the pass catching TE and keep him in for blocking. It happened to Ertz in 2016 the first 5 or 6 games. He could have had a monster year if the running game wasnt  derailed by a mathews and  like 6 o-line injuries that year.. 

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

Last year? Kelce has been the primary pass catcher on the chiefs the last 3yrs. .  . if there were naysayers in 2018  I'm not sure they could have been saying much 😂

I'm out on Howard until TC starts. Too soon to get giddy on him. Happens every year with TE's everyone trying to get the next Gronk/kelce. 

TE is tough to call because if the team can't run the ball or there are injuries on the o-line they usually will reduce the passing routes to the pass catching TE and keep him in for blocking. It happened to Ertz in 2016 the first 5 or 6 games. He could have had a monster year if the running game wasnt  derailed by a mathews and  like 6 o-line injuries that year.. 

You just described the situation last year and OJ played well, lol.

Bad run game and bad Oline play. 

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35 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

It's always @BMCP fault isn't it?

That guy is always in the middle of a  forum fracas. . 🤣

I'd just rather use logic than what fits ones argument best.

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2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

You just described the situation last year and OJ played well, lol.

Bad run game and bad Oline play. 

but Air raid offense with 6 different players touching the ball and each had +700 yds from scrimmage

plus Tampa had the #1 passing offense and the #3 ranked overall offense, #29 running offense and finished last in their division with a 5-11 record.

So all of that passing got them a lot of nothing. 

Somehow i dont imagine Arians+leftwich are going  run the same pass heavy  offense that generated all of those yards which is why I stated in an earlier post I am more interested in seeing what develops with the running game before I figure out what howard is worth.  Contrary to popular belief the running game does heavily correlate to how you use the TE because of the very nature of the position to be used as an extra lineman

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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

but Air raid offense with 6 different players touching the ball and each had +700 yds from scrimmage

plus Tampa had the #1 passing offense and the #3 ranked overall offense, #29 running offense and finished last in their division with a 5-11 record.

So all of that passing got them a lot of nothing. 

Somehow i dont imagine Arians+leftwich are going  run the same pass heavy  offense that generated all of those yards which is why I stated in an earlier post I am more interested in seeing what develops with the running game before I figure out what howard is worth.  Contrary to popular belief the running game does heavily correlate to how you use the TE because of the very nature of the position to be used as an extra lineman

Pass % 2018

Arizona: 60.64

Tampa Bay: 63.13

 

Not much of a difference. I don't even really care about run vs pass. As long as OJ gets targets.

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17 minutes ago, dashoe said:

but Air raid offense with 6 different players touching the ball and each had +700 yds from scrimmage

Isn't this a reason to LIKE Howard in 2019?

 

 

17 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 Contrary to popular belief the running game does heavily correlate to how you use the TE because of the very nature of the position to be used as an extra lineman

A run game would also mean more trips to the red zone and more scoring opportunities.

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3 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Pass % 2018

Arizona: 60.64

Tampa Bay: 63.13

 

Not much of a difference. I don't even really care about run vs pass. As long as OJ gets targets.

 

throwing out stats without context?

 

Arizona didnt have arains + leftwich as the HC/OC last season and not a single one of their TE' jones+clay  was fantasy relevant.

They couldnt pass or run the ball and probably ranked last in every offense relevant category  which contributed to their 3- 13 record and the reason why they want to offload their sophmore QB 🤣

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Aren't Bruce Arians teams usually top 10 in pass attempts?  Even more importantly, top 10 in total passing yards and TD's?

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