Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

throwing out stats without context?

 

Arizona didnt have arains + leftwich as the HC/OC last season and not a single one of their TE' jones+clay  was fantasy relevant.

They couldnt pass or run the ball and probably ranked last in every offense relevant category  which contributed to their 3- 13 record and the reason why they want to offload their sophmore QB 🤣

Oh sorry that's right, change the 60.64 to 61.32% (when Bruce was with Arizona) and it hurts your argument more

 

2016? 63.26%...

 

Any other metrics you wanna try?? 😂😂

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Isn't this a reason to LIKE Howard in 2019?

 

 

A run game would also mean more trips to the red zone and more scoring opportunities.

 

 Arians+leftwich dont run an air raid scheme. .  it's over it's gone koetter and monken are not there. You do realize this correct? 

New coaches usually mean a new offense..

 I assume Arians  will go vertical quite often with evans+perriman+godwin, I even expect OJ howard to get redzone looks and have some good weeks where they exploit mismatches what I don't expect is for him to be a predictable weekly stud if the running game turns around and the defense slightly improves. 

I get you guys love his talent however I currently dont see the situation being built around the talent of the TE. I see  a lot of running the ball, spreading out the defense and taking big vertical shots for chunk plays like they did in AZ.  but now with a downgrade in QB in terms of decision making.  What I also don't get is this fascination of what he could have produced last season in a different offensive scheme. Doesnt add up for me. I'll wait until TC as the data filters in.

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 Arians+leftwich dont run an air raid scheme. .  it's over it's gone koetter and monken are not there. You do realize this correct? 

New coaches usually mean a new offense..

 I assume Arians  will go vertical quite often with evans+perriman+godwin, I even expect OJ howard to get redzone looks and have some good weeks where they exploit mismatches what I don't expect is for him to be a predictable weekly stud if the running game turns around and the defense slightly improves. 

I get you guys love his talent however I currently dont see the situation being built around the talent of the TE. I see  a lot of running the ball, spreading out the defense and taking big vertical shots for chunk plays like they did in AZ.  but now with a downgrade in QB in terms of decision making.  What I also don't get is this fascination of what he could have produced last season in a different offensive scheme. Doesnt add up for me. I'll wait until TC as the data filters in.

You said in the air raid offense the ball was spread between 6 different guys.  2 of them are now gone.  Yes, that offense is now gone.  That is a reason to like Howard.  Now the ball is fed to 3 or 4 different guys.

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9 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Oh sorry that's right, change the 60.64 to 61.32% (when Bruce was with Arizona) and it hurts your argument more

 

2016? 63.26%...

 

Any other metrics you wanna try?? 😂😂

WOW! again stats with no context! 

So let's burst your bubble real quick and keep this train moving. . . 🤪

How about you tell us how many of those passes went to a TE and how many went to the rb?

(Here is a hint arians didnt like running DJ between the tackles a lot he got him the ball through the air because DJ operates best in space)

 

2016  AZ rb vs TE numbers that destroy your argument but in a very loving way👇

DJ- 120 targets

ALL TE's:

Gresham+Fells+Momah+Niklas =.  .wait for it. . .wait for it. . .

85  COMBINED TARGETS

The TE position was #6 in targets for the team which shouild give you some insight into the way  Arians+lefwich ran their offense.

 

You are still  good with me fella you help me reaffirm my positions👊

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3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You said in the air raid offense the ball was spread between 6 different guys.  2 of them are now gone.  Yes, that offense is now gone.  That is a reason to like Howard.  Now the ball is fed to 3 or 4 different guys.

 

That is a possible outcome that  shall revel itself to be true or false .  .

I'm not opposed to that outcome. i  think it's to early to assume it given the only known is new coaching staff and how that coaching staff ran their previous offenses.

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8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

WOW! again stats with no context! 

So let's burst your bubble real quick and keep this train moving. . . 🤪

How about you tell us how many of those passes went to a TE and how many went to the rb?

(Here is a hint arians didnt like running DJ between the tackles a lot he got him the ball through the air because DJ operates best in space)

 

2016  AZ rb vs TE numbers that destroy your argument but in a very loving way👇

DJ- 120 targets

ALL TE's:

Gresham+Fells+Momah+Niklas =.  .wait for it. . .wait for it. . .

85  COMBINED TARGETS

The TE position was #6 in targets for the team which shouild give you some insight into the way  Arians+lefwich ran their offense.

 

You are still  good with me fella you help me reaffirm my positions👊

Reaffirm what? Go back a few pages and review the list of world beater TEs he had.

 

Plus, it's jameis throwing the ball, not Arians 😂

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2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Reaffirm what? Go back a few pages and review the list of world beater TEs he had.

 

Plus, it's jameis throwing the ball, not Arians 😂

Once again it's not the talent I evaluate, its the system.  I have a love only 1 talent per season not named Josh Gordon rule, last year it was adams, year before kamara, year before that Kelce. Everyone else is a widget in terms of team build, makes it easier to add and drop and trade.

that was with carson palmer throwing the ball, not sure about you but i prefer peak Palmer over jamesis everyday. he makes much better decisions with the ball and we shall see how jamesis performs in an Arians system. 

Keep in lmind that Arians QB's usually have high turnovers and sacks due to the vertical game as the QB tries to buy the wr's time to get open.

I don't think I am anti-Howard, I'm probably more anti- the way you guys process and project that he will be a stud.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Once again it's not the talent I evaluate, its the system.  I have a love only 1 talent per season not named Josh Gordon rule, last year it was adams, year before kamara, year before that Kelce. Everyone else is a widget in terms of team build, makes it easier to add and drop and trade.

that was with carson palmer throwing the ball, not sure about you but i prefer peak Palmer over jamesis everyday. he makes much better decisions with the ball and we shall see how jamesis performs in an Arians system. 

Keep in lmind that Arians QB's usually have high turnovers and sacks due to the vertical game as the QB tries to buy the wr's time to get open.

I don't think I am anti-Howard, I'm probably more anti- the way you guys process and project that he will be a stud.

Carson palmer is a great example (I'd rather have him in real football but jameis in fantasy probably.)

 

When has palmer ever made a TE relevant? (Never)

 

actually there was was one year in Oakland with Brandon Myers but he has a history of not making anything out of a TE. Jameis however seems to like throwing to OJ 

Edited by bhawks489

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Last year? Kelce has been the primary pass catcher on the chiefs the last 3yrs. .  . if there were naysayers in 2018  I'm not sure they could have been saying much 😂

I'm out on Howard until TC starts. Too soon to get giddy on him. Happens every year with TE's everyone trying to get the next Gronk/kelce. 

TE is tough to call because if the team can't run the ball or there are injuries on the o-line they usually will reduce the passing routes to the pass catching TE and keep him in for blocking. It happened to Ertz in 2016 the first 5 or 6 games. He could have had a monster year if the running game wasnt  derailed by a mathews and  like 6 o-line injuries that year.. 

 

Kelce was a polarizing player last offseason. Many had him as a complete DND at his early 3rd round pricing due to the belief that there were too many mouths to feed and that due to Mahomes’ deep passing tendencies he’d be the odd man out. Clearly, that turned out to be complete nonsense. 

I see a lot of similarities in that line of thinking (Kelce doesn’t fit Mahomes) and the line of thinking going on in here (Arians doesn’t use tight ends), which I predicted in the very first response to this thread. They are both equally nonsense to me. This is going to be an offense that puts major statistical totals on the board and OJ is going to be either the 2nd or 3rd offensive option. He is going to feast regardless of whatever tendencies anyone has. He is already the #1 downfield threat from the TE position in the NFL. He has a 60/900/7 floor pending health IMO.

Edited by MJJ28

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4 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Pass % 2018

Arizona: 60.64

Tampa Bay: 63.13

 

Not much of a difference. I don't even really care about run vs pass. As long as OJ gets targets.

And which of those two teams did Arains coach in 2018?  Oh that's right, neither one.

Go look at how the TEs did with Arians in charge.  For the last ten years he was in charge of an offense, 2007-2011 with Pittsburgh, 2012 with Indy, and 2013-2017 with Arizona.  Hint: it's pretty ugly.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And which of those two teams did Arains coach in 2018?  Oh that's right, neither one.

Go look at how the TEs did with Arians in charge.  For the last ten years he was in charge of an offense, 2007-2011 with Pittsburgh, 2012 with Indy, and 2013-2017 with Arizona.  Hint: it's pretty ugly.

 

Go look at how the best individual talents on each of those offenses did. Hint: it’s pretty great.

 

Arians has never held back or underutilized a player deserving of opportunity in his entire career. In fact, he does the opposite: makes guys who were otherwise irrelevant into productive players.

Edited by MJJ28

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

WOW! again stats with no context! 

So let's burst your bubble real quick and keep this train moving. . . 🤪

How about you tell us how many of those passes went to a TE and how many went to the rb?

(Here is a hint arians didnt like running DJ between the tackles a lot he got him the ball through the air because DJ operates best in space)

 

2016  AZ rb vs TE numbers that destroy your argument but in a very loving way👇

DJ- 120 targets

ALL TE's:

Gresham+Fells+Momah+Niklas =.  .wait for it. . .wait for it. . .

85  COMBINED TARGETS

The TE position was #6 in targets for the team which shouild give you some insight into the way  Arians+lefwich ran their offense.

 

You are still  good with me fella you help me reaffirm my positions👊

Incredible post.  I am standing an applauding unironically.

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8 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Go look at how the best individual talents on each of thise offenses did. Hint: it’s pretty great.

So Mike Evans is in for a real treat?  Totally agree.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

So Mike Evans is in for a real treat?  Totally agree.

 

Yes, along with the entire Bucs offense.

It’s 2019, top offenses support 4-5 good to elite options and the Bucs will be one. OJ is the #2 or #3.

Edited by MJJ28

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

How about you tell us how many of those passes went to a TE and how many went to the rb?

2016  AZ rb vs TE numbers that destroy your argument but in a very loving way👇

DJ- 120 targets

ALL TE's:

Gresham+Fells+Momah+Niklas =.  .wait for it. . .wait for it. . .

85  COMBINED TARGETS

The TE position was #6 in targets for the team which shouild give you some insight into the way  Arians+lefwich ran their offense.

How many targets do you think the TE position would get in KC if their starting TE was Jermaine Gresham?

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5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

So Mike Evans is in for a real treat?  Totally agree.

So you think he'll build on his 138 targets to what exactly?

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20 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

How many targets do you think the TE position would get in KC if their starting TE was Jermaine Gresham?

Why would what a different player playing in a different system matter when analyzing OJ Howard's prospects for 2019?

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And which of those two teams did Arains coach in 2018?  Oh that's right, neither one.

Go look at how the TEs did with Arians in charge.  For the last ten years he was in charge of an offense, 2007-2011 with Pittsburgh, 2012 with Indy, and 2013-2017 with Arizona.  Hint: it's pretty ugly.

Holy eff you are being dense. I was making a point that PALMER doesn't throw to TEs. You know, the guy that Arians coached? Thought that was clear lol. 

Edited by bhawks489
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11 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Holy eff you are being dense. I was making a point that PALMER doesn't throw to TEs. You know, the guy that Arians coached? Thought that was clear lol. 

You were making a point about Palmer, who retired after the 2017 season, by citing stats from 2018?  And you wonder why I don't seem very convinced by your logical reasoning.

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

You were making a point about Palmer, who retired after the 2017 season, by citing stats from 2018?  And you wonder why I don't seem very convinced by your logical reasoning.

You wanna qoute what I said? Not sure what you are talking about lol.

I feel you are backed in a corner and mashing different posts together to make it seem like you arent wrong.

Someone brought up air raid system so I brought up stats from 2016-2018 showing that there wasnt much of a difference between the passing % of the two teams. Palmer was brought up to show that he didnt make anything out of TEs even before Arians showed up. Copy and paste that for the Steelers when Arians was OC there.

 

Now if you are going to reply please add something to the convo

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Why would what a different player playing in a different system matter when analyzing OJ Howard's prospects for 2019?

It means you target players, not positions

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

It means you target players, not positions

That's true to an extent.  But a player's surroundings do matter.  I always believed Kelce was held back by Alex Smith, who seemed overly cautious and rarely targeted Kelce in the red zone.  Great player--bad situation.  A bit like Howard in 2019.

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10 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

You wanna qoute what I said? Not sure what you are talking about lol.

I feel you are backed in a corner and mashing different posts together to make it seem like you arent wrong.

Someone brought up air raid system so I brought up stats from 2016-2018 showing that there wasnt much of a difference between the passing % of the two teams. Palmer was brought up to show that he didnt make anything out of TEs even before Arians showed up. Copy and paste that for the Steelers when Arians was OC there.

 

Now if you are going to reply please add something to the convo

Bhawks--

I have never strayed from my primary argument:  OJ Howard, a highly talented player, is unlikely to break out and be a fantasy league winner in 2019 because Howard will be in Bruce Arians's system.  That system has a consistent 10-year track record of moderate to low usage of TEs in the passing game.  Arians instead heavily involves RBs and WRs as receivers, and often uses TEs to block while the receivers try to get deep down the field.

It's not about how often Carson Palmers targeted TEs when he played, or how much the Bucs or Cards passed last year under different coaching staffs.  It is about OJ Howard and Bruce Arians.  Good irl match because Arians will use OJ Howard's overall talent to win foitball games, but bad for fantasy since Howard will not be a primary option in the passing game.

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16 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

He finished 11th in 0.5 PPR and 6th in PPG. Thats pretty close to top 5.

Forgot which source I used - this one has him 12th: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-te.php?year=2018

The exact ranking honestly doesn’t matter for purposes of my point.

And as @dashoe stated above, why exactly do we care about his PPG from a now-defunct system?

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

That's true to an extent.  But a player's surroundings do matter.  I always believed Kelce was held back by Alex Smith, who seemed overly cautious and rarely targeted Kelce in the red zone.  Great player--bad situation.  A bit like Howard in 2019.

 

But, just a few pages ago you boasted about having successfully predicted Travis Kelce as your breakout TE in 2014- despite believing he was a great player in a bad position, being held back by an overly cautious Alex Smith?

 

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