Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

If you think that a healthy OJ Howard will finish the year with 600 yards and 4 TD's then you should find a new game to play because fantasy football ain't for you. Can't wait to revisit this thread.

Well Howard had 550 yards receiving and 5 TDs in 2018.  But now he's playing in a worse (for TEs) system.  Will he play a full season this time?  He hasn't yet.

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He will be my highest owned player this year.  A top 5 TE in the 6th round?  Thanks.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He will be my highest owned player this year.  A top 5 TE in the 6th round?  Thanks.

Currently at a 5th-round ADP

 

FWIW, PFF identifies Howard (and Brate) as fantasy “Losers” with the arrival of Arians: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bucsnation.com/platform/amp/2019/2/9/18217144/tampa-bay-buccaneers-oj-howard-cameron-brate-bruce-arians-losers-fantasy-football-pro-football-focus

Edited by BMcP
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Thanks for the links.  Those were good reads.  However, OJ Howard could have the best TE production of any TE in the history of Bruce Arians, and it still might not amount to much.

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10 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Thanks for the links.  Those were good reads.  However, OJ Howard could have the best TE production of any TE in the history of Bruce Arians, and it still might not amount to much.

That’s one possible outcome. Or, it could amount to the breakout season of the next elite fantasy TE. 

Something that hasn’t been mentioned much is the fact that TB used a 1st round pick on Howard, and he’s played like a 1st round pick when healthy. I don’t imagine TB brass is going to be happy if Arians turns Howard from a potential pro-bowl TE into a wasted 1st round pick. Neither will TB fans and media, and I don’t imagine Howard himself will be happy about a decreased role in the offense.

If Arians truly intends to use Howard as a traditional blocking TE, it would make a ton of sense to trade him. Heck, give Dorsey a call and swap Howard for Duke Johnson, and TB gets the receiving back they could use.

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Howard is going to be a weapon. He is going to line up all over the field and I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the slot quite often. Depending on how they address the RB position Evans, Godwin, Howard, Brate and RB on the field at once, could be a nightmare for teams.

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On 4/3/2019 at 11:26 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

Arians was coaching in the NFL in 2017.  That's not exactly ancient history.  And he made minimal use of TEs then.

I agree that Arians SHOULD feature O.J. Howard in his offense, but Arians's track record tells me he won't.

All these offseason fluff pieces are useless coachspeak.  What do you expect Arians to say?  "Howard will mostly be a blocker for us this year."  He's not going to say that, even though it is probably true.

 

 

 

 

Arians gonna turn this into a blocking TE?

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

That’s one possible outcome. Or, it could amount to the breakout season of the next elite fantasy TE. 

So it sounds like everyone agrees that anything is possible and we really have no idea what to expect from Howard this season.  Plenty of reasons for both optimism and skepticism.  

I guess now we just wait for some further word from Arians or sophomore signal-caller Leftwich on how they plan to use him.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Arians gonna turn this into a blocking TE?

Howard was more often used as a blocker for the past two years.

Edited by BMcP
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23 minutes ago, BMcP said:

So it sounds like everyone agrees that anything is possible and we really have no idea what to expect from Howard this season.  Plenty of reasons for both optimism and skepticism.  

 

 

You can say that about 95 percent of TEs. Really a crapshoot once you get past the top guys.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

That’s one possible outcome. Or, it could amount to the breakout season of the next elite fantasy TE. 

Something that hasn’t been mentioned much is the fact that TB used a 1st round pick on Howard, and he’s played like a 1st round pick when healthy. I don’t imagine TB brass is going to be happy if Arians turns Howard from a potential pro-bowl TE into a wasted 1st round pick. Neither will TB fans and media, and I don’t imagine Howard himself will be happy about a decreased role in the offense.

If Arians truly intends to use Howard as a traditional blocking TE, it would make a ton of sense to trade him. Heck, give Dorsey a call and swap Howard for Duke Johnson, and TB gets the receiving back they could use.

 

Dude, your comments are way too logical or practical for how most of these NFL coaches think or act.  If the offense is producing and the team is winning, then the TB management and fans won't give a crap about how Howard is being used.  Howard was on track to have a great season under the Todd Monken air raid offense and he performed better with Fitzpatrick under center.  Both are now gone.

Is Howard a former 1st round pick and elite TE talent in the NFL - YES.  Does Bruce Arians have a very poor track record of TE usage in his offensive system over many years - YES.

Howard isn't cheap in drafts relative to the TE position and I'd just rather avoid him when such obvious risks are present.  Maybe Howard's talent wins out and the Arians/TE past usage has all been based on lesser talents at TE that he's had to work with.  However, TB has other talented pass catchers (Evans, Godwin, Brate & will likely take a WR in the draft) and maybe Arians just doesn't use the TE that much in the passing game.  Plus, as BMcP mentioned above, Howard is a very good blocker and he's been used in that role a lot the past 2 years.  TB hired Arians because of his past success and to win football games, not to tailor his offense and system to OJ Howard...

Edited by J.T. Marlin
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12 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

 

Dude, your comments are way too logical or practical for how most of these NFL coaches think or act.  If the offense is producing and the team is winning, then the TB management and fans won't give a crap about how Howard is being used.  Howard was on track to have a great season under the Todd Monken air raid offense and he performed better with Fitzpatrick under center.  Both are now gone.

Is Howard a former 1st round pick and elite TE talent in the NFL - YES.  Does Bruce Arians have a very poor track record of TE usage in his offensive system over many years - YES.

Howard isn't cheap in drafts relative to the TE position and I'd just rather avoid him when such obvious risks are present.  Maybe Howard's talent wins out and the Arians/TE past usage has all been based on lesser talents at TE that he's had to work with.  However, TB has other talented pass catchers (Evans, Godwin, Brate & will likely take a WR in the draft) and maybe Arians just doesn't use the TE that much in the passing game.  Plus, as BMcP mentioned above, Howard is a very good blocker and he's been used in that role a lot the past 2 years.  TB hired Arians because of his past success and to win football games, not to tailor his offense and system to OJ Howard...

 

Arians was a TE coach at a point, maybe he just hasn't had a viable pass catching TE. He's been a ton of places. Do you have any stats that back up your assertion?

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

And the coaches got fired...

 

Haha!  True - though I think there was more to it on that particular decision.

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24 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Arians was a TE coach at a point, maybe he just hasn't had a viable pass catching TE. He's been a ton of places. Do you have any stats that back up your assertion?

 

Look back over the 2 pages of this thread....the stats are there.  I also made that exact point in my post that your quoting about Arians not having a talent at TE like Howard...

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21 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

 

Look back over the 2 pages of this thread....the stats are there.  I also made that exact point in my post that your quoting about Arians not having a talent at TE like Howard...

 

I see stats about Heath Miller, not much else. 

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(From the PFF article I linked to above):

Across Arians’ five-year tenure in Arizona, his top tight end averaged only 50 targets, 32 receptions, and 348 yards per season and were often fourth or fifth on the offense in targets.”

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

(From the PFF article I linked to above):

Across Arians’ five-year tenure in Arizona, his top tight end averaged only 50 targets, 32 receptions, and 348 yards per season and were often fourth or fifth on the offense in targets.”

So did arians tell palmer not to throw to the TE?

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35 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

So did arians tell palmer not to throw to the TE?

Well, yes, he did, in a manner of speaking.

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11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Well, yes, he did, in a manner of speaking.

When/where was this brought up? I get it a coach makes a player block more but the QB ultimately decides where the ball goes

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

When/where was this brought up? I get it a coach makes a player block more but the QB ultimately decides where the ball goes

Haha!  I just meant in terms of his choice of scheme and playcalls.

I mean, it’s not like all these ‘Zona TEs were incapable of catching or something.  Gresham, for example, was also a former first-round pick who was regularly deployed as a vertical threat for the Bengals before coming over to the Cardinals.  I seem to recall his being frustrated at one point about his lack of usage in the passing game.

Edited by BMcP
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Just a few articles about the player some of you believe Arians is going to ignore. I mean, why would he have any use for a guy like this?...

 

O.J. Howard off to a flying start, standing out as the best tight end in football

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/o-j-howard-off-to-a-flying-start-standing-out-as-the-best-tight-end-in-football

O.J. Howard: How ‘you want to draw up a tight end’

https://www.al.com/sports/2019/03/oj-howard-how-you-want-to-draw-up-a-tight-end.html

O.J. Howard can become the greatest offensive weapon in the NFL

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tampa-bay-buccaneers-oj-howard-greatest-offensive-weapon-nfl/

O.J. Howard is blossoming into an elite tight end

https://thepewterplank.com/2018/11/02/o-j-howard-elite-tight-end/

PFF grades O.J. Howard as second-best tight end in 2018

https://www.bucsnation.com/2019/2/21/18232144/pff-grades-buccaneers-o-j-howard-as-second-best-tight-end-in-2018

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Just a few articles about the player some of you believe Arians is going to ignore. I mean, why would he have any use for a guy like this 

Thank you for posting these articles.  I honestly don’t think people are questioning his natural athleticism or his pass-catching ability at the moment, though.  They are skeptical that a head coach notorious for not incorporating his TEs into an integral role in the passing game (despite having multiple TEs to work with who were talented receivers) will feature him to the extent that he will be worth selecting with a high draft pick (~5th round) in fantasy football leagues.

Edited by BMcP
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